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Setting Development Goalsfor Population Dynamics & Reproductive Rights
January 9, 2013
John F. MayVisiting FellowCenter for Global Development
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
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Great Divergence in Fertility Levels• 16% of the world population: TFR >4.0
children per woman (mainly LLDCs)• 38%: TFR between 2.1 and 4.0 children
(diverse group)• 46%: TFR<2.1 children per woman (North
America, Europe, and China & some Asian countries)
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Youth Bulge (and Security Demography)
When the proportion of 15-29 age group represents more than 40% of all adults (15+)For example: Pakistan (2010) = 46.4%
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Urbanization
Since 2009, >50% of the world population is urban
And 2/3 of people will live in cities in 2050
Issue of slums (1 billion people)
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International Migration
About 3% of world population
This proportion will increase …
… and so will tensions around international migration issues
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Population Aging
• Elderly support ratioFor example: Germany2010 = 3 persons aged 15-64 for 1 person 65+2050 = 2 persons aged 15-64 for 1 person 65+• Depopulation of some countries (Russia)
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Family Planning Past Abuses
India: Emergency 1975-77 China: One-child policy 1979 Abuses in Latin America (e.g.,
Peru) Top-down approaches Target setting
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Focus on Reproductive Rights
1. The reaction against FP past abuses and2. The realization that family planning is necessary but not sufficient
Resulted in reproductive rights agenda adopted at ICPD Cairo (1994)
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Reproductive Health
Child Health
Domestic Violence
Maternal Health
Family Planning
HIV/AIDS & STDs
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Millennium Development Goals
Family planning was left out in 2000, and included only in 2005 (Target 5b)
Need to address Pop/RH issues in the next development framework
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Inequity & Poverty
The DHS quintile analysis has enriched our understanding of inequity
Rapid population growth is linked to poverty at household level
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Demographic Dividend
Situation in which working age groups expand relative to dependents, with more favorable dependency ratios• Opportunity for faster economic growth
(East Asian experience), but sound economic & social policies are needed
• Window of opportunity limited in time
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A Multisectoral Approach
Link family planning efforts with female education & income generating activities
Empowerment of women Human capital formation (i.e.,
education & health)
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Priority Groups
Women (and their partners): they represent half of the population –absolutely key for any future progress
Youth: in many LLDCs, 30% of the population is between 15 and 29
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Political Commitment
IT IS CRUCIAL (e.g., Tunisia, Rwanda)
Need for more advocacy Concept of “Public Demography” Convey key demographic
concepts in a simple way
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