Session 40 Anssi Lappalainen

University of Turku

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Outlook of the liner traffic at the Northern Baltic Sea in 2020 – Results from PENTA project Anssi Lappalainen Transportforum 2013 10.1.2013 Linköping

University of Turku

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Agenda

•  Centre for Maritime Studies •  PENTA project •  Transport history •  Drivers of demand in cargo and passenger traffic •  Future expectations •  Conclusions and outlook

University of Turku

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Centre for Maritime Studies

•  Founded in 1980 •  Special unit of the University of Turku

from 1984 •  Located in four coastal cities in

Finland –  Turku –  Rauma –  Pori –  Kotka

•  Employ about 40 persons

University of Turku

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PENTA project

•  PENTA project explores the alternatives of how the five Central Baltic ports together can face and better comprehend the challenges of today and in the future.

•  Timetable: 01/2011 – 08/2013 •  Funding: Central Baltic INTERREG IV A –programme,

Ports of Stockholm, Helsinki, Turku and Naantali, and the Government of Estonia.

University of Turku

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PENTA project

•  WP1 –  Project coordination

•  WP2 –  Passenger and cargo flows,

and estimations for future •  WP3

–  Noise as an environmental challenge

•  WP4 –  Barriers in safety, security

and administrative procedures

University of Turku

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PENTA ports

2010 •  2,8 mln tonnes •  6,9 mln passengers

2010 •  1,6 mln tonnes •  3,2 mln passengers

2010 •  2,0 mln tonnes •  0,17 mln passengers

2010 •  0,2 mln tonnes •  0,015 mln passengers 2010

•  0,29 mln tonnes •  0,9 mln passengers

2010 •  0,6 mln tonnes •  2,4 mln passengers

University of Turku

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Transport history

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Transport history

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Transport history

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Transport history

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Transport history

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CENTRE FOR MARITIME STUDIES 12

Transport history

University of Turku

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Drivers of demand in cargo traffic

•  Gross domestic product •  Consumer demand •  Economic structure •  Logistic system •  Mode characteristics

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Drivers of demand in passenger traffic

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Future expectations

•  Cargo traffic –  GDP –  Trade between Russia and Germany –  Baltic States and Poland

•  Amount of transported units –  20-30% growth by 2020 –  Increases faster than the volume of transported goods –  The share of fast moving consumer goods increases

•  Transit traffic –  Decreses in BSR

University of Turku

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Future expectations

•  Passenger traffic –  Increases in the long run –  Interests for entertainment and destination can change –  The gap between work-related trips and leisure cruises will be

more visible –  Cost structure and the price level in Estonia are key issues

•  Vessel traffic –  The future vessel size is more dependent on the development

of passenger traffic –  The increasing demand for capacity between PENTA ports will

be solved with higher frequency –  Same departure times of different shipowners are undesirable

for cargo traffic

University of Turku

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Future expectations

•  Sulphur directive –  The price of marine fuel is estimated to increase by 50-70% –  The costs of sea transports in BSR are estimated to increase

up to 30% –  Road transportation from Finland to Europe is currently ~20%

more expensive compared to sea transportation •  Russia

–  Russian sea traffic rises from 540 million tonnes in 2011 to 700 million tonnes in 2015 and nearly 900 million tonnes by 2020 (Rosmorport)

–  The capacity of Ust Luga +100% (2011-2015) –  The capacity of Saint Petersburg +30% (2011-2015)

University of Turku

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Conclusions and outlook

•  The operational environment in 2020 –  Moderate economic growth in BSR –  Bunker costs doubles –  Sulphur directive takes effect as planned –  Relative share of road transport in BSR increases more than

sea or rail transport –  Stronger focus on environmental issues with new legislations –  Significance of Russia increases in trade in BSR –  Growing Russian economy decreases traffic via PENTA ports –  Minor decrease in the number of ports in BSR

University of Turku

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Conclusions and outlook

•  Traffic flows in 2020 –  STO-TKU

•  Cargo traffic decreases moderately •  The amount transported units remains unchanged •  Passenger traffic increases mildly

–  STO-HKI •  Cargo traffic increases slowly •  The number of transported units remains at the present level •  A small decrease in passenger traffic

–  STO-TLL •  Freight traffic increases for both total volume and units •  Passenger traffic increases steadily

University of Turku

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Conclusions and outlook

•  Traffic flows in 2020 –  KPS-PDS

•  Cargo traffic increases but the relative share of transported units increases faster

•  Passenger traffic remains very modest –  KPS-NLI

•  Cargo traffic increases but the relative share of transported units increases faster

•  Passenger traffic increases moderately –  HKI-TLL

•  The strongest increase in cargo traffic among the routes between PENTA ports

•  The increase of transported units is even faster •  Passenger traffic increases steadily

University of Turku

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Thank you for your attention!

_____________________________________________ Anssi Lappalainen | Project Manager | M.Sc. (Econ.) University of Turku | Centre for Maritime Studies ICT-building | Joukahaisenkatu 3-5 B | FI-20014 Tel: +358 2 333 8172 | Mob: +358 40 779 9488 anssi.lappalainen@utu.fi | http://mkk.utu.fi