Serbian capital market Regional Conference Economic Crisis and Responses of Capital Market...

Serbian capital market Regional Conference

Economic Crisis and Responses of Capital Market Regulators

Belgrade, December 3, 2009

REPUBLIC OF SERBIA - SECURITIES COMMISSION

Milko ŠtimacChairman of the Securities Commission of the Republic of Serbia

2

Serbian capital market List of Participants

ParticipantsTotal number (September 30th)

2008 2009 index

Broker - Dealer Companies 85 61 71,8

Authorised Banks 19 21 110,5

Custody Banks 12 13 108,3

Management Companies (MF) 16 11 68,8

-mutual funds (MF) 17 16 94,1

Management Companies (PF) 9 9 100,0

-pension funds (PF) 8 10 125,0

Brokers 1.038 1.085 104,5

Portfolio Managers 75 109 145,3

Investment Advisers 19 32 168,4

Stock Exchange 1 1 100,0

-members of Stock Exchange 92 79 85,9

Central Securities Depository and Clearing House 1 1 100,0

-members of Central Securities Depository and Clearing House 105 95 90,5

List of active securities 2.506 2.470 98,6

Republic of Serbia - Securities Commission

3

January - September 2008 and 2009

2008Number of transactions Turnover

numberstructure

%index

(2008/07)billion€UR

structure%

index(2008/07)

1 BELEX 92.335 65,4% 38,3 0,8 1,2% 48,0

2 OTC(!) 48.929 34,6% 86,7 65,1 98,8% 158,1

TOTAL 141,264 100,0% 47,4 65,9 100,0% 153,0

2009 number Structure % index(2009/08)

billion€UR

structure%index

(2009/08)

1 BELEX 59.095 71,2% 60,8 0,2 0,8% 25,6

2 OTC(!) 22.744 28,8% 46,5 23,6 99,2% 36,2

TOTAL 78.839 100,0% 55,8 23,8 100,0% 36,1

Serbian Capital MarketNumber of transactions and turnover TOTAL = BELEX + OTC(!) 2008 - 2009

Republic of Serbia - Securities Commission

Serbian Capital MarketNumber of transactions and turnover TOTAL = BELEX + OTC(!) 2005 – 2009

Republic of Serbia - Securities Commission 4

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

20092008

20072006

2005

56,095

22,744

92,335

48,929

240,955

55,702

104,444

87,711

127,294

104,116

Number of transactionsJanuary - September

0

20,000,000,000

40,000,000,000

60,000,000,000

80,000,000,000

20092008

20072006

2005196,673,680.623,586,558,482.7769,352,152.4

65,122,310,064.0

1,604,086,448.133,186,010,403.8714,649,584.2

5,900,641,826.7

394,471,208.1

1,090,674,963.9

Turnover (€)January - September

5

Serbian Capital MarketNumber of transactions by securitiesTOTAL = BELEX + OTC(!) 2008 - 2009

Securities2008 2009

numberof

transactions

structure%

index numberof

transactions

structure%

index

(2008/07) (2009/08)

Shares 105.868 74,9% 44,6 54.263 68,8% 51,3

Bonds (Republic of Serbia, Series A - Foreign Currency Savings Bonds)

32.722 23,2% 57,1 22.260 28,2% 68,0

Treasury Bills (Republic of Serbia) and Bank Commercial Notes (NBS, REPO transactions)

2.674 1,4% 95,8 2.316 2,6% 86,6

TOTAL 141.264 100,0% 47,4 78.839 100,0% 55,8

Republic of Serbia - Securities Commission

January - September

6

Serbian Capital MarketTurnover by securitiesTOTAL = BELEX + OTC(!) 2008 - 2009

Securities

2008 2009

turnoverbillion €UR

structure%

index turnover

billion €URstructure

%

index

(2008/07) (2009/08)

Shares 0,9 1,3% 56,0 0,3 1,2% 32,5

Bonds (Republic of Serbia, Series A - Foreign Currency Savings Bonds)

0,2 0,3% 36,9 0,3 1,2% 139,1

Treasury Bills (Republic of Serbia) and Bank Commercial Notes (NBS, REPO transactions)

64,8 98,4% 95,8 23,2 97,6% 35,8

TOTAL 65,9 100,0% 153,0 23,8 100,0% 36,1

Republic of Serbia - Securities Commission

January - September

7

Serbian Capital MarketNumber of transactions and turnover by securities (structure)TOTAL = BELEX + OTC(!) 2008 - 2009

Republic of Serbia - Securities Commission

Shares75.3%

Bonds of RS (A)23.3%

Treasury Bills of RS

0.0%

Bank Comm. Not. NBS(repo)

1.4%

Transactions (structure)January - September 2008

Shares1.6%

Bonds of RS (A)0.4%

Treasury Bills of RS

0.2%

Bank Comm. Not. NBS(repo)

97.8%

Turnover (€)January - September 2008

Shares68.8%

Bonds of RS (A)28.2%

Treasury Bills of RS1.2%

Bank Comm.Not.NBS(

repo)1.7%

Transactions (structure)January - September 2009

Shares1.2%

Bonds of RS (A)1.1%

Treasury Bills of RS

6.2%

Bank Comm.Not.NBS(

repo)91.5%

Turnover (€) (structure)January - September 2009

8

Serbian Capital MarketBELEX – Belgrade Stock ExchangeNumber of transactions and turnover by securities 2007 - 2009

January - September

BELEX Number of transaction Turnover

2008number

index(2008/2007)

million €URindex

(2008/2007)

92.335 38,3 762,6 48,0

2009number

index(2009/2008)

million €URindex

(2009/2009)

56.095 60,75 196,7 25,6

Republic of Serbia - Securities Commission

January - December

BELEX Number of transactions Turnover

2007number

index(2007/2006)

million €URindex

(2007/2006)

302.016 221,9 2.012,2 102,5

2008number

index(2008/2007)

million €URindex

(2008/2007)

119.001 39,5 905,4 44,2

Serbian Capital MarketBELEX – Belgrade Stock ExchangeNumber of transactions and turnover by securities 2009

Republic of Serbia - Securities Commission 9

Shares

Bonds of RS (A)

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

20092008

20072006

200549,430

6,665.0

86,422

5,913.0

228,178

12,777

83,374

21,070

91,935

35,359

BELEXTransactions

January - September

0

500,000,000

1,000,000,000

1,500,000,000

20092008

20072006

2005

139,751,679

56,922,002

703,104,752

66,247,400

1,422,773,049

181,313,399

612,153,298

102,496,286

315,081,852

79,389,356

BELEXTurnover (€)

January - September

mill

ion €

Serbian Capital MarketSHARES – Owners ship structure 2009

Republic of Serbia - Securities Commission 10

0-5%; 895,756

5-10%; 1

10-25%; 1

25-33%; 298

33-50%; 263

50-66%; 296

66-75%; 782

75-100%; 457

Number of shareholders with percentage of ownership in

capitalSeptember 30th 2009

shares in ownership of natural persons

<5%; 14% shares in ownership of natural persons >5%; 6%

shares in ownership of legal entities;

49%

socially owned capital;

2%

Share Fund and Pension and Dis-ability Insur-ance

Fund; 6%

custody bills; 2%

rest; 21%

Ownership structureSeptember 30th 2009

11

Serbian Capital MarketBELEX – Belgrade Stock ExchangeSHARES – Number of transactions and turnover 2007 - 2009

January – September

SHARES Number of transaction Turnover

2008number

index(2008/2007)

million €URindex

(2008/2007)

86.422 37,9 703,1 49,4

2009number

index(2009/2008)

million €URindex

(2009/2009)

49.430 57,2 139,8 19,9

Republic of Serbia - Securities Commission

January - December

SHARES Number of transaction Turnover

2007number

index(2007/2006)

million €URindex

(2007/2006)

285.566 246,2 1.843,8 175,7

2008number

index(2008/2007)

million €URindex

(2008/2007)

110.787 38,8 816,9 44,3

12

Serbian Capital MarketBELEX – Belgrade Stock ExchangeSHARES – Market Capitalization

Market Capitalization

SHARES December 31st 2008 September 30th 2009 index

Total number of “listed” stock companies 1.864 1.835 98,4

Total book valueof shares(last known)

billion €UR7,5

billion €UR7,3

97,4

Total market valueof shares

billion €UR8,7

billion €UR 8,9 102,6

Market value/book value(last known)

1,15 1,21 105,4

Market capitalization(2008.)

/GDP(estimate, 2007.) 0,25

Republic of Serbia - Securities Commission

Serbian Capital MarketBELEX – Belgrade Stock ExchangeSHARES - Market Capitalization by Sectors (structure)

Republic of Serbia - Securities Commission 13

Agriculture 4%

Industry 49%

Construction 6%

Trade, Tourism 8%

Financial Intermediati

on, Transport

30%

Other activities

3%

Market Capitalization by Sectors (structure)

September 30th 2009

Agriculture9%

Industry42%

Energetic0%

Construction12%

Trade, Tourism

20%

Financial Intermediati

on, Transport

7%

Other activities

10%

Numbers of Companies by Sectors (structure)

September 30th 2009

14

Serbian Capital MarketBELEX – Belgrade Stock ExchangeSHARES – Market Value/Book Value

Republic of Serbia - Securities Commission

15

Serbian Capital MarketBELEX – Belgrade Stock ExchangeSHARES – Movement of prices and turnover (Index BELEX15)

Republic of Serbia - Securities Commission

16

Serbian Capital MarketBELEX - Belgrade Stock ExchangeSHARES – Foreign Investors Participation

Republic of Serbia - Securities Commission

17

Serbian Capital MarketSHARES – Take over

Total number of stock companies that have been taken over (closed)

2008 (number) 133

2009 (number) 76

index (2009/2008) 54,1

Total value of purchased shares

2008 (million €UR) 126,3

2009 (million €UR) 15,3

index (2009/2008) 12,1

Republic of Serbia - Securities Commission

January - September

January - September

18

Serbian Capital MarketBELEX – Belgrade Stock ExchangeBONDS (A) – Number of transactions and turnover 2007 - 2009

January – September

BONDS(A) Number of transaction Turnover

2008number

index(2008/2007)

million €URindex

(2008/2007)

5.913 46,3 66,5 36,7

2009number

index(2009/2008)

million €URindex

(2009/2009)

6.665 112,7 56,9 85,9

Republic of Serbia - Securities Commission

January - December

BONDS(A) Number of transaction Turnover

2007number

index(2007/2006)

million €URindex

(2007/2006)

15.644 61,3 207,1 130,5

2008number

index(2008/2007)

million €URindex

(2008/2007)

8.214 52,5 88,5 42,7

19

Serbian Capital MarketBELEX Belgrade Stock ExchangeBONDS (A) – Prices and yields

Maturitydate

Price(maturity day=100%)

(average – daily)

Yield(on annual basis)

(A) 2008January-September

2009January-September

2008January-September

2009January-September

2010. 89,20% 96,35% 7,10% 5,74%

2011. 83,20% 91,28% 7,14% 5,63%

2012. 78,00% 86,36% 7,01% 5,65%

2013. 72,40% 81,82% 7,16% 5,62%

2014. 67,00% 78,12% 7,32% 5,43%

2015. 63,50% 73,38% 7,05% 5,61%

2016. 59,30% 70,65% 7,05% 5,35%

Average (w): 75.98% 82,57% 6.71% 5,58%

Republic of Serbia - Securities Commission

Yield (on annual basis) 1 year 5 year 10 year

Government bonds - Germany 0,91% 2,38% 3,22%

Government bonds - USA 0,56% 1,80% 2,86%

20

Serbian Capital MarketRepublic of Serbia – Ministry of FinanceTreasury Bills – Turnover, Average weighted discount rate, Average yields

January – September

MATURITYDATE

(91 days)TURNOVER

AVERAGE WEIGHTEDDISCOUNT RATE(on annual basis)

AVERAGEYIELD

(on annual basis)

2008million €UR

index(2008/2007)

rate%

index(2008/2007)

yield(%)

index(2008/2007)

85,8 57,1 4,46% 64,1 4,62% 63,1

2009million €UR

index(2009/2008)

rate%

index(2009/2008)

yield(%)

index(2009/2008)

1.469,1 1.510,9 13,24% 269,7 14,15% 277,9

Republic of Serbia - Securities Commission

21

Serbian Capital MarketOpen Mutual FundsAsset Values

Republic of Serbia - Securities Commission

Open Mutual Fund

Asset Value

31.12.2007 31.12.2008 30.09.2009

naziv početak rada €UR €UR €UR

1 Delta Dynamics 30.01.2008 - 506,244 430,545

2 Delta Plus 08.03.2007 18,677,227 4,353,867 2,900,375

3 Erste Balanced 30.03.2009 - - 305,282

4 FIMA Novac 22.06.2009 - - 272,894

5 FIMA Proactive 07.05.2007 13,063,015 3,855,750 2,782,640

6 Focus Novčani Fond 06.11.2008 - 227,743 112,219

7 Focus Premium 07.09.2007 4,090,412 794,103 446,970

8 HYPO Balance 28.07.2008 - 443,321 548,119

9 Ilirika JIE 25.12.2007 545,154 228,942 284,913

10 KD Ekskluziv 27.12.2007 307,216 119,870 177,876

11 Kombank InFond 28.05.2008 - 986,843 1,150,596

12 Raiffeisen Akcije 16.08.2007 14,258,566 3,189,212 2,457,793

13 Triumph 21.02.2008 - 543,309 640,833

TOTAL 50,941,590 15,249,204 12,511,055

Index 100.00 29.93 24.55

Serbian Capital MarketOpen Mutual FundsAsset Values

Republic of Serbia - Securities Commission 22

0 20,000,000 40,000,000 60,000,000

Total Asset Value (€)December 31st 2007

Delta Plus FIMA Proactive

Raiffeisen Akcije Focus Premium

Ilirika JIE KD Ekskluziv

€UR

0 5000000 10000000 15000000

Total Asset Value (€)September 30th 2009

Delta Dynamic Delta Plus FIMA Proactive

Focus Novčani Fond HYPO Balance Ilirika JIE

#REF! KD Ekskluziv Kombank InFond

Raiffeisen Akcije Triumph

€UR

Serbian Capital MarketOpen Mutual Funds Net Asset Values – Rate of yield in relation to value in the beginning

Republic of Serbia - Securities Commission 23

-80.00% -60.00% -40.00% -20.00% 0.00% 20.00%-55.9%

-63.0%-34.8%

12.2%2.4%

-66.1%2.2%

-72.5%2.2%

-60.0%-58.0%

-25.9%-69.7%

-42.5%

Net Asset Value (€)Rate of Yield in relation to value in

the beginning (%)September 30th 2009

Investiciona jedinica-10.00% 0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00%

13.79%

37.19%

5.24%

-1.71%

5.98%

0.36%

0.84%

Net Asset Value (€)Rate of Yield in realtion to value in

the biginning (%)December 31st 2007

Investiciona jedinica

24

Serbian Capital MarketExchange rate €UR/Din(middle, NBS)

Republic of Serbia - Securities Commission

Serbian capital market Regional Conference

Economic Crisis and Responses of Capital Market Regulators

Belgrade, December 3, 2009

REPUBLIC OF SERBIA - SECURITIES COMMISSION

Milko ŠtimacChairman of the Securities Commission of the Republic of Serbia