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Air Transportation System Modelling WorkshopHamburg, 2015
Searching the appropriate network for the new class of commercial passenger aircraft
2
Frigate Ecojet is the new short-to-medium haul super
widebody aircraft
Super wide body aircraft, is being developed by start-up Russian airframe manufacturer, has three aisle design and optimized for medium haul operations.
Frigate Ecojet Boeing 777-200
Passenger load 302 305
Range, km 3 500 9130
Cargo (number of LD3 in lower hold)
20 32
Cruise Mach 0,82 0,84
MTOW, kg 128 000 247 200
OEW, kg 72 600 143 830
Maximum payload, kg 30 000 35 000
3
Searching the appropriate network for Frigate Ecojet: general
approach
All city pairs with 5 800 km distance in between with NB and/or WB service
Trunk routes within 5 800 km radius
Trunk routes with airports ready to land Frigate Ecojet (runway length and strength)
Линии целевого сегментаW
orl
d r
egi
on
s an
d
cou
ntr
ies
Pri
ori
ty li
st
Slo
t co
nst
rain
ed
ai
rpo
rts
Dis
tan
ce
Core potential clients list
Pas
sen
ger
mix
Seas
on
alit
y
Riv
alry
Results1. City pairs 2. Airports 3. Carriers
4
Short to medium haul realm is huge
Number of OW routes – 31 670Number of airports – 1 899Maximum distance – 5 800 kmCapacity – more than 120 seats per flight
5
Room to breathe for Frigate Ecojet, though, is considerably
smaller
1788
11661382
308 27096
94
72
119
11229
660
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
АТР СвА ЕВР БлВ ЛтА АФР
Количество линий
Прочие линии, на которых оперируют авиакомпании региона
Линии, на которых доминируют авиакомпании регионаИсточник: МАЦ
116
18
67
20 28 21
25
29
106 16
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
АТР СвА ЕВР БлВ ЛтА АФР
Количество авиакомпаний
Прочие авиакомпании
Авиакомпании, способные поставить "Фрегат Экоджет" хотя бы на одной своей линии Источник: МАЦ
Only 270 out of 356 air carriers could deploy
Frigate Ecojet on at least one route
of its network
Number Share, %
Carriers Airports Routes Routes Flights Seats ASK
All one way routes 434 1 899 31 670 100 100 100 100
Trunk routes only (480 spdew)
362 882 5 784 18,3 69,8 71,1 65,5
Trunk routes with runway length > 2 400 m
357 710 5 075 16,0 62,0 63,8 60,9
Trunk routes with appropriate runway PCN
356 676 4 984 15,7 61,2 63,1 60,6
6
Can the range extension help Frigate Ecojet?
3500 км
4500 км
5800 км
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
АТР СвА ЕВР БлВ ЛтА АФР Мир
Прот
яжен
ност
ь лин
ий, к
м
Доля работы на линиях до заданной дальности
100% перевозок
95% перевозок
90% перевозок
85% перевозок
80% перевозок
75% перевозок
70% перевозок
50% перевозок
30% перевозок
Источник: МАЦ
Moving Frigate’s optimal range from 3 500 to 5 800 km could bring only 4% of additional flights and 19% extra RPK.Current range is in 85 percentile in terms of RPK
7
Potential network: market perspective
Routes group # 1. Widebodies is being used on the routes. Probability of substitution current fleet with Frigate Ecojet is high..
Routes group # 2. Only narrow body aircraft is being used on the routes. However on each route there is at least one carrier with 4 flights a day or with 480 spdew. Probability of substitution current fleet with Frigate Ecojet is moderate.
Routes group # 3. Only narrow body aircraft is being used on the routes with no big player (4 flights a day or 480 spdew). Probability of substitution current fleet with Frigate Ecojet is low.
8
Potential network: slots, seasonality and rivalry perspective
3%
14%17%
9%
13%
5%4%
2%
8%1%
3%
5%
1%
3%
2%
1%
2%
1%
2%
1%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
1000-2000 2000-3000 3000-4000 4000-5000 5000-6000 6000-7000 7000-8000 8000-9000 9000-10000Интервалы индекса HHI
Сезонная крупная линия (потенциальный заказчик пока отсутствует)Сезонная крупная линия (есть потенциальный заказчик)Круглогодичная крупная линия (потенциальный заказчик пока отсутствует)Круглогодичная крупная линия (есть потенциальный заказчик) Источник: МАЦ
Есть доминирующая
авиакомпания
75%
14%
4%
7% Всего
268191
912863
862
48
33
943
39327
10
430
711 325
748
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0-3500 км 3500-4500 км 4500-5800 км 0-5800 км
Интервалы дальности
Сезонная крупная линия (потенциальный заказчик пока отсутствует)
Сезонная крупная линия (есть потенциальный заказчик)
Круглогодичная крупная линия (потенциальный заказчик пока отсутствует)
Круглогодичная крупная линия (есть потенциальный заказчик) Источник: МАЦ
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0-35
00 к
м
3500
-450
0 км
4500
-580
0 км
0-58
00 к
м
0-35
00 к
м
3500
-450
0 км
4500
-580
0 км
0-58
00 к
м
0-35
00 к
м
3500
-450
0 км
4500
-580
0 км
0-58
00 к
м
Рейсы Кресла ККМ
Все остальные линии
Линии Группы 3 (Прочие)
Линии Группы 3 (Через слотируемые АП)
Линии Группы 2 (Прочие)
Линии Группы 2 (Через слотируемые АП)
Линии Группы 1 (Прочие)
Линии Группы 1 (Через слотируемые АП) Источник: МАЦ
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
0%
-5%
5%
-10
%
10
%-1
5%
15
%-2
0%
20
%-2
5%
25
%-3
0%
30
%-3
5%
35
%-4
0%
40
%-4
5%
45
%-5
0%
50
%-5
5%
55
%-6
0%
60
%-6
5%
65
%-7
0%
70
%-7
5%
75
%-8
0%
80
%-8
5%
85
%-9
0%
90
%-9
5%
95
%-1
00
%
До
ля
пас
саж
ир
оп
ото
ка, %
Доля транзитных пассажиров, %
Среднее взвешенное
значение доли транзитных пассажиров 26%
Транзитные линии!
Источник: МАЦ
827 connecting traffic routes
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7+Длительность пребывания, сутки
Первый
Бизнес
Эконом
Доля первого и бизнес классов
Источник: МАЦ
Бизнес линии?
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
До
ля
пас
саж
ир
оп
ото
ка, %
Доля пассажиров первого и бизнес классов, %
Среднее взвешенное
значение доли пассажиров первого и бизнес класса 7%
Бизнес линии!Бизнеслинии?
255 routes
62 routes
317 business traffic routes
List of main world resorts
519 leisure traffic routes
9
Potential network: passenger mix perspective
Factors considered:Share of first & business class passengersLength of stayShare of connecting passengers on routeMain leisure destination
10
Potential clients selection process
0,0 0,5 1,0
Orient Thai AirlinesThai Lion Mentari Co. Ltd
Scoot Private LimitedToumai Air Tchad
Cathay Pacific AirwaysVanilla Air Inc
Tway Air Co. LtdJapan Airlines
Air DoSingapore Airlines
Star Flyer Inc.Jeju Air Company
Skynet Asia Airways Co. LtdThai Airways
Hong Kong AirlinesDobrolet LLC
Global JetJetstar Asia Airways
Malindo AirEmirates
Valuair Ltd.EASTAR JET Co. Ltd.
Tiger Airways AustraliaAirAsia Inc.
All Nippon AirwaysChina Airlines
Sky Asia Company Limited dba Nok AirMandala Airlines
Jetstar JapanSkymark Airlines
EVA AirJetstar Pacific Airlines
Mango AirlinesGrand China Air Company
Hong Kong Express AirwaysGolden Myanmar Airlines Public Co., Ltd
Qantas AirwaysMahan Airlines
Comair Ltd.Malaysia Airlines
Atlasjet AirlinesVirgin Australia
Onur Air Tasimacilik A.SAir China
Peach Aviation LimitedAir EuropaDragonair
Thai AirAsiaVietJet Air
Asiana AirlinesAir Canada
Arkia Israeli Airlines LtdBritish AirwaysVirgin America
Korean Air LinesPhilippine Airlines
SpiceJetTiger Airways
AirAsia X Sdn. Bhd.Jin Air Company
Virgin Atlantic AirwaysJuneyao Airlines Co. Ltd.
Sri Lankan AirlinesIndonesia AirAsia
Interglobe Aviation Ltd. dba IndigoGaruda Indonesia
City Airways Company LimitedPT. Wings Abadi Airlines
Shanghai AirlinesAir Pacific Ltd. t a Fiji Airways
PT. Batik Air IndonesiaAir India
Santa Barbara AirlinesLufthansa
AeromexicoTransAsia Airways Corporation
Go Airlines (India) LtdChongqing Airlines Co. Ltd.
M S Airblue (PVT) LtdAir France
National Air Services dba FlynasJet Lite (India)
Jetstar AirwaysKLM
Vietnam AirlinesCitilink Indonesia
Kuwait AirwaysMyanmar Airways International Company Ltd.
Hainan AirlinesBangkok Airways
China Southern AirlinesJet Airways (India)
South African AirwaysIberia
CEBU Pacific AirAlitalia
Saudia (Saudi Arabian Airlines)AirAsia Berhad dba AirAsia
Spring Airlines Limited CorporationChina Eastern Airlines
Источник: МАЦ
High probability0,0 0,5 1,0
Nepal Airlines CorporationTibet Airlines Corporation Limited
Jazeera AirwaysMiddle East Airlines
El AlTurkish Airlines
Biman Bangladesh Airlines LimitedFlydubai
SWISSLion Airlines
InterJetAir Macau Company Limited
Estelar LatinoAmerica C.A.MN Airlines LLC dba Sun Country Airlines
China United AirlinesAvianca Brazil
EgyptairWestjet
Shenzhen AirlinesPakistan International Airlines
United AirlinesCanguilla FIRST
Sichuan AirlinesPAL Express Airphil Express
Air Indus (Pvt.) Ltd.Air New Zealand
Kenya AirwaysKunming Airlines
Shaheen Air InternationalScandinavian Airlines System
Air MauritiusDana Airlines Limited
COPADelta Air Lines
Austrian AirlinesZest Airways
Chengdu AirlinesChina West Air
Brussels Airlines N.V.US Airways
American AirlinesPeruvian Air Line S.A.
Sky Airline S.A.Japan Transocean Air
Canguilla SECONDAeroflot
Vueling AirlinesSATA International Servicios Et. Trans Aereos, S.A
Alaska AirlinesJetBlue AirwaysRoyal Jordanian
FinnairQatar Airways
Lan AirlinesTAP PortugalSpirit Airlines
Monarch AirlinesAegean Airlines
Air TransatAigle Azur
Hawaiian AirlinesSriwijaya Air
Tigerair PhilippinesSudan Airways Co. Ltd.
Nile AirAir Berlin
Aer LingusAirTran Airways
VIM Airlines, Russian FederationNIKI Luftfahrt GmbH
Sunwing AirlinesXiamen Airlines
Okay Airways Company LimitedAvianca
Ruili AirlinesAzerbaijan Hava Yollary
Aeroenlaces Nacionales S.A. de C.V. dba …Merpati Nusantara Airlines
Etihad AirwaysLibyan Airlines
Norwegian Air Shuttle A.SCJSC Airline 400 dba Redwings
Lucky Air Company LtdTAM
S7 AirlinesPegasus Hava Tasimaciligi
Beijing Capital Airlines Co LtdTianJin Airlines Co. Ltd
Equatorial Congo Airlines (ECanadanguillaR)Lan Ecuador
LOT Polish AirlinesConcesionaria Vuela Compania de SA de Cape …
Transavia FranceCzech Airlines
Aero Contractors Company Nigeria Ltd.Boliviana de Aviacion (BoA)
SunExpressShandong Airlines
Arik AirBusiness Air Co, Ltd
Источник: МАЦ
Medium probability0,0 0,5 1,0
Trans Air Congo (TAC)GermanwingsVivaColombia
Frontier AirlinesGulf Air
Aeropostal Alas de Venezuela C.A.Iraqi Airways
Tunis AirTarom
Tame Linea Aerea Del EcuadorGol Transportes Aereos
easyJetMeridiana fly S.p.A.
Iran AirSilkair
Afriqiyah AirwaysUkraine International Airlines
Transaero AirlinesSouthwest Airlines
Rossiya Airlines Open Joint Stock CompanyEthiopian Airlines
Cyprus AirwaysCaribbean Airlines
Iran Air ToursTACA
Transportes Aereos Del MercosurCambodia Angkor Air Ltd
Air India Express aka Air India Charters LimitedAir Algerie
Thomas Cook Airlines U.K. LimitedAserca Airlines, C.A.
Ural AirlinesAircompany Atlasjet Ukraine Limited
CondorRoyal Air Maroc
IcelandairUzbekistan Airways
Air BusanAir One
Yamal AirlinesThomson Airways Limited
Jetairfly TUI Airlines BelgiumAerolineas Galapagos S.A. Aerogal
Air AstanaJet2 Channel Express
Joint Stock Company Aircompany YakutiaTUIfly
Mandarin Airlines Ltd.Uni Airways Corporation
Blue Panorama Airlines S.p.AOman Air (SAngolaG)
RyanairTransavia Airlines
Air KyrgyzstanCameroon Airlines Corporation dba Camair Co
UTair Aviation Joint Stock CompanyRutas Aereas, C.A. dba RUTACanada
Hebei Airlines Co. LtdCroatia Airlines
Air SerbiaRoyal Brunei Airlines
Air Manas Air Company LLCAvior Airlines C.A
Air BalticBahamasair Holdings, Limited
Air ArabiaAerolineas Argentinas
Wizz AirAllegiant Air
TAAN Linhas Aereas de Angola
Источник: МАЦ
Low probability
Asia-Pacific33%
NA30%
Europe26%
ME3%
LA6%
Africa2%
World region distribution
737NG 38%
A320Family45%
757 4%
767 1% 36A330 2% 777 2% 737 Сlassic
737NG
DC9
A320Family
757
A310
767
787
A330
777
747
A380
Distribution by the aircraft family
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Nu
mb
er o
f ai
rcra
ft, c
um
ula
tive
Average FH per cycle with current operator
10548 Aircraft74,5% of total fleet
FH/FC distribution
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
0-5 5-10 10-15 15-20 20-25 > 25
Shar
e o
f to
tal f
leet
,%
Nu
mb
er o
f ai
rcra
ft
Age, years
All types NB WB
Fleet age distribution
10 500 aircraft
11
Core clients fleet mix
Narrow body
Widebody
Frigate Ecojet
•«Equal number of flights»
•«Equal ASK»
•«2 flights into 1»•«Equal number of
flights»
Searching the representative carrier: scenarios
13
Searching representative airline: criteria and results
Criteria:
• Carriers operational models have to be different in order to match with diversity of substitution scenarios.
• Carriers have to represent all target world regions. Since the Asian market is projected to be core market for the aircraft, Asian airlines have to be presented in all substitution scenarios.
• Current fleet has to encompass all mainline types in both class, narrow and wide body aircraft.
• For each substitution scenario only option has to be chosen: either pair of big and small airlines operating on typical network, or the just one average size carrier
Choice:
China Eastern (MU): carrier from the target world region with A330 in fleet with average FH/FC rate and aircraft age Saudi Arabian Airlines (SV): carrier with least average FH/FC rate for fleet of Boeing 777Shanghai Airlines (FM): second tier carrier with narrowbody fleet on fast growing markets Delta Airlines (DL): narrowbody, 757 included, fleet operates on developed high frequency market with substantial infrastructure constrainsAir India (AI): medium sized, non Asian carrier with narrow body fleet on the target network with high frequencies.
14
Frigate Ecojet performance on carrier’s network
Targeted networkFleet mixHistoric passenger’s flowRevenueTraffic volatility
Growth potential (natural growth, connecting and switching passengers)
Segment flow analysisFare analysis
CASM analysis for current fleetFrigate CASM comparison
Different scenario analysis ( equal flights, “2 flights for 1”, equal ASK)Same profit analysis: LF sensitivity, fare sensitivityFeasibility analysis
Frigate Ecojet fleet requiredFinancial effect of substitution of the current types with Frigate Ecojet
15
Short haul jumbo: modest potential in current market
environment
Frigate Ecojet outperforms current widebodies on short and medium haul routes. Under any scenario, Frigate couldbring an extra profit to carrier.
Frigate Ecojet is better even then the most popular “regional” widebody Airbus A330-300. On typical network it has12,5 – 14,1 % lower operating cost. Over the Boeing 777, Frigate has almost 15% performance surplus.
Frigate Ecojet, despite the CASK advantage over the current narrow body models, too risky for typical networkcarrier. Small airlines, probably, have no ability to attract additional passengers to fill Frigate with usual load factor.Behemoth carriers could jeopardies their traffic numbers because of reduced frequency or ASK inequality .
However, large airlines are the primary target for Frigate marketing due to flexibility of their operations, fleet andnetworks.
Factors yet to be considered:Turnaround time Incumbents pricing powerSales strategyCurrent types lease rateProduct supportFinancing options (EFA)Political factors
0%
100%
200%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Pax
0
10
20
0
10
20
30
A330-300 747-400 777-200 777-300
Age
Fle
et
Fleet Avg. Age
16
Saudi Arabian Airlines: prove the concept?
Thank you
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