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The Science of Kanban - GOTO Prague 23 Nov 2011
Rally Software 1
The Science of Kanban
KARL
SCOTLAND
kscotland@rallydev.com
http://availagility.co.uk
twitter.com/kjscotland
http://mobro.co/kjscotland
The Science of Kanban - GOTO Prague 23 Nov 2011
Rally Software 2
Scientific Management
System
Study
Share
Limit Sense
Learn
The Science of Kanban - GOTO Prague 23 Nov 2011
Rally Software 3
Complicated
• Potentially Knowable
• Cause-Effect separated in time
& space
• Good Practice
• Sense → Analyse → Respond
Simple
• Known
• Cause-Effect perceivable,
predictable, repeatable
• Best Practice
• Sense → Categorise → Respond
Complex
• Retrospectively Coherent
• Cause-Effect not repeatable
• Emergent Practice
• Probe → Sense → Respond
Chaos
• Incoherent
• Cause-Effect not perceivable
• Novel Practice
• Act → Sense → Respond
Unord
ere
d D
om
ain
s
Ord
ere
d D
om
ain
s
Disorder
http://www.cognitive-edge.com/
The Science of Kanban - GOTO Prague 23 Nov 2011
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People
The Science of Kanban - GOTO Prague 23 Nov 2011
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Clark & Wheelwright: Managing New Product and Process Development
The Science of Kanban - GOTO Prague 23 Nov 2011
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0
20
40
60
80
100
12
34
5
Pe
rce
nt
Number of Simultaneous Projects
Working Time Context Switching Time
Gerald Weinberg, Quality Software Management: Systems Thinking
Assumptions Strategies & Techniques
Results
Single Loop Learning
Double Loop Learning
The Science of Kanban - GOTO Prague 23 Nov 2011
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The Science of Kanban - GOTO Prague 23 Nov 2011
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Process
Utilisation
Qu
eu
e
Queuing Capacity Utilisation
Lead Time = Queue Size / Processing Rate
The Science of Kanban - GOTO Prague 23 Nov 2011
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Flow = Speed x Density
Density
Speed
Flow
Miles per Hour
Vehicles
per
Mile
Vehicles
per
Hour
Miles
per
Hour
Difference
Adjustment
Temperature
The Science of Kanban - GOTO Prague 23 Nov 2011
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Fast Feedback
Smaller Queues
Lower WIP
Faster Flow
The Science of Kanban - GOTO Prague 23 Nov 2011
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Economics
Dis
co
un
ted
Cash
Investment Period Payback Period Profit Period
Time
Self-funding
Point
Break-even
Point
Maximum
Cash
Injection
Needed
Life Cycle Profits
The Science of Kanban - GOTO Prague 23 Nov 2011
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Expedite
Standard
Fixed
Date Intangible
Cost
Time
Cost of Delay
Probability of Failure
Info
rma
tio
n
0% 100%
Information Theory
The Science of Kanban - GOTO Prague 23 Nov 2011
Rally Software 13
Ideas
Build
Code
Measure
Data
Learn
Lean Startup
Pa
yo
ff
Performance
Target
Loss
Gain
Asymmetric Pay-offs
The Science of Kanban - GOTO Prague 23 Nov 2011
Rally Software 14
Cost
Va
lue
Tradeoffs
Sequence Early
Sequence Late
Cost of Risk Reduction
Va
lue
of R
isk R
ed
uctio
n
Risk Reduction
The Science of Kanban - GOTO Prague 23 Nov 2011
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The Science of Kanban - GOTO Prague 23 Nov 2011
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Plan
Do
Check
Act
Observe
Orient
Decide
Act
The Science of Kanban - GOTO Prague 23 Nov 2011
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Why
How
What
The Golden
Circle
http://www.startwithwhy.com/
The Science of Kanban - GOTO Prague 23 Nov 2011
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Economics
Process People
Lean
Books
• Kanban – David J. Anderson
• The Principles of Product Development
Flow – Donald G. Reinertsen
• Brain Rules – John Medina
• Software by Numbers – Mark Denne &
Jane Cleland-Huang
The Science of Kanban - GOTO Prague 23 Nov 2011
Rally Software 19
Thank you!
Email: kscotland@rallydev.com
Twitter: http://twitter.com/kjscotland
Blog: http://availagility.co.uk
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