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San Juan County Workers
Workforce depletion since 1990
Why are our young people leaving?
What can we do about it?
A Report by the Orcas Research Grouphttp://orcasresearch.org
April 6, 2005
Our Population is AgingSan Juan County Population Distribution
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
Under5 years
5 to 14years
15 to24
years
25 to34
years
35 to44
years
45 to54
years
55 to64
years
65 to74
years
75 to84
years
85yearsandover
1990 2000 2003 WA
WA
1990
2003
Our Population aged 25-44 declined from 30% in 1990 to 20% in 2003Meanwhile, those aged 45-64 increased from 24% to 38%
Source: US Census & WA Databook
Our Workforce Lags Population GrowthPopulation and Labor Force 1990-2004
4,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,000
10,00011,00012,00013,00014,00015,00016,000
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
Year
La
bo
r F
orc
e
Labor Force Population
Since 2000, our resident workforce declined from 51% to 44%
Source: The Labor Market and Economic Analysis (LMEA) Branch of the Washington State Employment Security Department
Year 2002 Salaries in San Juan County
$-$5,000
$10,000$15,000$20,000$25,000$30,000$35,000$40,000$45,000$50,000
Employment Sector
Sa
lary
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
Salary Percent of Workforce
22%
11%$24,640
21%
Low Salaries are a Problem
Over half of our workers have low paying jobs.
Source: US Census, County Business Patterns& Washington Low Income Housing Alliance
“Living Wage” $29,723
Cost of Housing is a Bigger Problem
A typical 3 bedroom, 2 bath home is beyond the reach of many.Nearly twice the cost of equivalent homes on the mainland.
Source: Washington Center for Real Estate Research
Median House Prices in Nearby Counties
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
94:Q2 95:Q2 96:Q2 97:Q2 98:Q2 99:Q2 00:Q2 01:Q2 02:Q2 03:Q2 04:Q2
Year:Quarter
Ho
use
Pri
ce
Island San Juan Skagit Whatcom
Priced out of the Market!Financing Affordable Housing for a Family of Four
$200,000
$220,000
$240,000
$260,000
$280,000
$300,000
$320,000
$340,000
$360,000
$380,000
$400,000
$3
5,0
00
$4
0,0
00
$4
5,0
00
$5
0,0
00
$5
5,0
00
$6
0,0
00
$6
5,0
00
$7
0,0
00
$7
5,0
00
$8
0,0
00
$8
5,0
00
Household Income
Ho
use V
alu
e
6% Conventional
5% Conventional
4% ARM
ModerateIncome
MiddleIncome
6%6%
LowIncome
5%
4%
With the cost of a 3 bedroom, 2 bath home now approaching $300,000, even with 5% fixed rate mortgages, few middle income families can buy.
Source: HUD Income Categories based on 2005 Median Income
Losing Ground!Who will qualify for today's $215,000 home in the
future?
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
$80,000
$90,000
$100,000
$110,000
$120,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Year
Ho
us
eh
old
Inc
om
e
Expected Income Qualifying Income
Todayhomecosts
$215,000
Home nowcosts
$339,000
Assumes 30 year, 20% down, 6% fixed rate mortgage, 8% appreciation, 3% inflation, 0.2%/year increase in interest.
Losing Ground!
Assumes 30 year, 20% down, 6% fixed rate mortgage, 8% appreciation, 3% inflation, 0.2%/year increase in interest.
Home nowcosts
$437,000
Todayhomecosts
$275,000
Who will qualify for today's $275,000 home in the future?
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
$80,000
$90,000
$100,000
$110,000
$120,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Year
Ho
us
eh
old
Inc
om
e
Expected Income Qualifying Income
Why do we care?
• Infrastructure Worker Survey (Orcas)– Teachers, Deputies, Paramedics, Utility
Workers, Medical Staff, etc (~200 people).– 18% to 29% turnover expected in next 5 years.– Approximately 25% will involve skills not
available on-island.– Need to attract and retain critical skills.
• 10-20 moderate/middle income homes needed on Orcas Island in the next 5 years.
Source: December 2004 Survey, Orcas Research Group
Solutions Needed…
If we are going to solve this problem, we need to get creative in how we use public and private financing.
Financing Affordable Housing for a Family of Four
$200,000
$220,000
$240,000
$260,000
$280,000
$300,000
$320,000
$340,000
$360,000
$380,000
$400,000$
35
,00
0
$4
0,0
00
$4
5,0
00
$5
0,0
00
$5
5,0
00
$6
0,0
00
$6
5,0
00
$7
0,0
00
$7
5,0
00
$8
0,0
00
$8
5,0
00
Household Income
Ho
use
Val
ue
6% Conventional
5% Conventional
4% ARM
6% w/ Land Trust
ModerateIncome
MiddleIncome
6%6%
SharedEquity
LowIncome
5%
Is there hope?
• Yes, if we bring together our best ideas while there is still time to act.– Bring together public and private financing– Create an inventory of perpetually affordable
homes.
• No, if we wait until we have to resort to draconian solutions.– We can learn from the experiences of
Nantucket, Aspen, Hilton Head and others.
A Healthy Community is…
A place where our working families can afford to live within
the community.
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