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A Sustainable Energy Scenariothrough 2020 based on PV & Wind, Bio-Fuel,Nuclear
EWG Business Network
Hong Kong, 4th Sept. 2007
By Lim Man Onn
CEO, Partnership for Equitable Growth
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Contents
PV & Wind Power
Bio-Fuel
Nuclear Energy
Conclusion
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Bio-Fuel
Nuclear Energy
Conclusion
PV & Wind Power
01_ PV (Photovoltaic)
02_ Wind Power
03_ Prospect and Segment
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PV (Photovoltaic)
Manufacture Process
Poly-CrystallineSilicon Ingot
Module
Cell
Design & Installation
Wafer
. PV & Wind
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Cumulative installed PV Power (in IEAs reportingcountries)
PV (Photovoltaic) . PV & Wind
Source : Report IEA-PVPS T1-15 : 2006
3,700
2,607
1,828
1,334
989
729
520396314
245199164136110
Annu
algrow
thof3
8.39
%
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Total installed PV Power by 2005 (in IEAs reporting countries)
PV (Photovoltaic) . PV & Wind
Source : Report IEA-PVPS T1-15 : 2006
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PV yearly module production by regions
PV (Photovoltaic) . PV & Wind
Source : PHOTON Internatial, The Photonvoltail Magazine, 2005.3
60.1 69.4 77.788.7
125.8 153.2202.2
287.7
390.5
559.6
761.9
1,256
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04Year
Production
(MWp)
USA Japan Europe China Rest Total
Annualgrowthof13%
Annu
algrowth
of
37.2%
Country 2003 2004 Growth AmountGrowth Rate
USA 109.0 141.5 32.5 29.8
Japan 365.4 594.1 228.7 62.6
Europe 202.3 344.1 141.8 70.1
China 10.3 38.0 27.7 268.9
Rest 74.9 138.1 75.9 101.3
Total 761.9 1,256.0 494.1 64.9
1,532
(05)
Growth 2005/2004 of 22%Growth 2005/2004 of 22%
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PV Production by company
PV (Photovoltaic) . PV & Wind
Source : Report IEA-PVPS T1-15 : 2006
56% of PV module production from Japanese companies56% of PV module production from Japanese companies
Share of PV module production by company in 2005 (%)Share of PV module production by company in 2005 (%)
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Indicative installed PV system price in 2005
PV (Photovoltaic) . PV & Wind
Source : Report IEA-PVPS T1-15 : 2006
-7.4--Germany
5.8~7.26.8~8.89.6~12.012.0~16.0Switzerland
10.48.3~10.3-12.3Canada
6.2~6.86.2~7.412.3~24.718.5Austria
7.67.6~10.714.516.8Australia
> 10 kW 1 kW< 1 kW
6.66.0--Japan
6.8~8.67.4~9.914.8~17.314.8~18.5Italy
-->11.010.0Israel
6.2~19.18.5~27.610.0~17.310.0~17.3UK
5.68.114.8~25.918.5~29.6France
8.3~16.75.5~13.325.0~33.311.7~15.0Denmark
5.96.8~7.4--Netherlands6.9--12.4~16.5Mexico
9.69.619.521.5Korea
6.5~9.07.0~10.012.0~20.012.0~25.0USA
6.712.4~17.1-13.4Sweden
-12.4~17.1-15.5~23.3Norway
On-Grid (per W)Off-Grid (per W)Country
[UNIT : USD]
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PV (Photovoltaic) . PV & Wind
Summary
Cost accelerates
The tremendous growth of PV business
Lack of raw material of poly silicon that is the same as for producing
semiconductor grade silicon
High growth expectation
The average annual growth rate for the last 5 years : 39.72%
Japan and Europe are driving PV system installation continuously
Most of the countries are interested in renewable energy to replace
oil consumption and solve global warming
Scenario : Aggressive growth : 20% p.a.
Scenario : Moderate growth : 15% p.a.
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Wind Power . PV & Wind
Annual Generation from Wind (in IEAs reporting countries)
Source : IEA Wind Annual Report in 2005
Annua
lgrowth
of3
1.10
%
The IEA 20 developed countrieshad 87% of the world installedwind power (2005)
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Wind Power . PV & Wind
National statistics in 2005
0.48421.902,394.01,7301,445446.801,337.16UK
0.733,838.6028,051.01,5007,2002,431.009,149.00USA
3.7047.971,773.02,100743529.001,060.00Portugal
0.40126.00504.02,300129110.00270.00Norway
1.695118.002,000.01,3581,733140.001,213.00Netherlands
0.002183.904.2080.002.20Mexico
0.591468641,00075948.00452.00Sweden
7.79259.9520,236.01,320NDA1,630.0010,028.00Spain
0.01461.308.4584342.9211.59Switzerland
18.5035.726,614.01,2005,2934.003,128.00Denmark
0.34538.001,800.01,700681239.00683.00Canada
NDANDANDANDANDA212.00819.00Austria
1.143190.002,171.01,750447328.00708.00Australia
2.5226.01655.01,000321204.60492.7Ireland
2.4951.001,270.01,188926121.10605.40Greece4.34611.0026,500.01,72317,5921,808.0018,428.00Germany
0.2084.90170.01,030940.0082.00Finland
0.17865.401,438.71,3001,048150.801,077.70Japan
0.65329.002,140.01,1962,258452.001,717.00Italy
1,352
1,700
(kW)
Average newturbinecapacity
40,752
41
(turbines)
Total No. ofTurbines
8,927.22
70.00
(MW)
Annual newwind capacity
51,363.75
100.00
(MW)
Total installedwind capacity
1.198,293.9698,739.3Totals
0.04359.31146Korea
(%)(TWh)(GWh)
% of national
electricitydemand from
wind
Nationalelectricitydemand
Windgeneratedelectricity
IEA
Country
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Wind Power . PV & Wind
Increasing average size of new turbine installed (IEA wind member
countries)
Source : IEA Wind Annual Report in 2005
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Wind Power . PV & Wind
Many European countries have established high targets for
wind power generation
25% CO2 emissions reduction by 2005 (from 1990 levels)Germany
20% of electricity consumption (end of 2003)Denmark
31% of electricity consumption by 2010. 8.4TWh/year. 500 MW approx.Finland
3.2% of electricity generated by 2010. capacity of 500MW (in 2005)Ireland
10% electricity supplied by 2010, subject to cost to consumer being acceptableUK
12% of primary energy demand by 2010. 13,000MW installed wind power by 2011Spain
7TWh per year of electricity. 3TWh per year from wind energy (approx. 1,000MW) by2010
Norway
5% of energy by 2010 (9% of electricity) rising to 10% of energy by 2020. 1,500MW ofwind power by 2010
Netherlands
2,500MW (eq. Avoided 3.4 m tons CO2 emissions based on wind power)Italy
1,500 MW wind power by 2010Greece
50~100GWh by 2010 from wind powerSwitzerland
10TWh per year by 2015Sweden
39% of electricity consumption by 2012. 3,750MW of wind powerPortugal
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Wind Power . PV & Wind
Summary
Growth expectation
The average annual growth rate for the last 5 years : 31.10%
Turbine size is getting bigger, now 5MW turbine now commercial
Wind power is the most competitive among renewable energy
The competitive factors
Electricity generation from wind is almost 10 times as much as PV
power
Wind power has economic feasibility itself without subsidy from
government
Plenty of national incentive programs
Scenario : Aggressive growth : 20% p.a.
Scenario : Moderate growth : 15% p.a.
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Prospect and Segment . PV & Wind
Convert electricity from PV & Wind to TOE (Ton of Oil Equivalent)
PV generated electricity in 2005
- Cumulative installed PV power : 3,895 MW
Assumption : IEA countries of 3,700 MW had 95% of the world installed PV power
- Average Efficiency : 17%
- Average generating time a day : 3.5 hours
Generated Electricity : 846 GWh
Wind power generated electricity in 2005
- Generated electricity : 113,493 GWh
Assumption : applied the 87% of IEA countries installed in worldwide to the same % of the generated
electricity in 2005
PV generated Power : 188,000 TOEWind generated Power : 25,220,666 TOE
* One TOE : 12 MWh
* Average efficiency : 37.5%
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Prospect and Segment . PV & Wind
Scenario : aggressive growth case
2.901.160.470.23PV
391.47157.3263.2230.49Wind Power
6,513.675,618.744,846.784,306.30ConsumptionWorldElectricity
14,637.4813,257.6112,007.8310,878.50ConsumptionWorldPrimary
Energy
6.05%2. 82%1.31%0.71%Ratio
2.69%1.20%0.53%0.28%Ratio
158.49
2015
394.3763.6930.72Total
202020102006(Million Toe)
* Assumption
- PV & Wind growth rate : 20%
- World electricity growth rate : 3.0%, Production in 2005 : 4,306.3 m TOE (source : BP statistical review)
- World Primary Energy growth rate : 2.5%(2006~2010), 2.0%(2011~2020),
Production in 2006 : 10,878.5 m TOE (source : BP statistical review)
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Prospect and Segment . PV & Wind
Scenario : aggressive growth case
Aggressive Penentration of PV & Wind Power
0.71%
1.31%
2.82%
6.05%
0.28%0.53%
1.20%
2.69%
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
7.00%
2006 2010 2015 2020
year
Electricity Ratio Primary Energy Ratio
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Prospect and Segment . PV & Wind
Scenario : moderate growth case
1.530.760.380.23PV
206.75102.7951.1129.22Wind Power
6,513.675,618.744,846.784,306.30ConsumptionWorldElectricity
14,637.4813,257.6112,007.8310,878.50ConsumptionWorldPrimary
Energy
3.20%1.84%1.06%0.68%Ratio
1.42%0.78%0.43%0.27%Ratio
103.55
2015
208.2851.4829.44Total
202020102006Million Toe
* Assumption
- PV & Wind growth rate : 15%
- World electricity growth rate : 3.0%, Production in 2005 : 4,306.3 m TOE (source : BP statistical review)
- World Primary Energy growth rate : 2.5%(2006~2010), 2.0%(2011~2020),
Production in 2006 : 10,878.5 m TOE (source : BP statistical review)
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Prospect and Segment . PV & Wind
Scenario : moderate growth case
Moderate Penentration of PV & Wind Power
0.68%
1.06%
1.84%
3.20%
0.27%0.43%
0.78%
1.42%
0.00%
0.50%
1.00%
1.50%
2.00%
2.50%
3.00%
3.50%
2006 2010 2015 2020
year
Electricity Ratio Primary Energy Ratio
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Nuclear Energy
Conclusion
Bio-Fuel
01_ Bio-Diesel
02_ Bio-Ethanol
03_ Activities around the world
04_ Prospect and Segment
PV & Wind Power
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Feed Stocks
Jatropha oil : India
Palm oil : Indonesia, Malaysia (produce 80% of the total palm oil)
Soybean oil : The United States of America
Rapeseed and Sunflower oil : Europe
Jatropha Palm Fruit
Key Raw
Material
. Bio-FuelBio-Diesel
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Feed Stock Production per Hectare & Cost of Bio-diesel Production
433,000IndiaJatropha Oil
465,000MalaysiaPalm Oil
781,000EuropeRapeseed Oil
73375USASoya Oil
Rate per barrel
(US$)
Yield/ha
(kg)CountryFeed Stock
. Bio-FuelBio-Diesel
Source : Center for Jatropha Promotion & Biodiesel in India (http://www.jatrophaworld.org)
Bio-diesel is clean fuel with high cetane index of 46~70
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Full Option Model
. Bio-FuelBio-Diesel
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Jatropha : Uses
. Bio-FuelBio-Diesel
- Source of oil suitableas fuel for diesel engine
- Useful as illumitant,ubricant, in soap and
candle making
- Used as medicine
Seeds
- Used as
ethnomedicine
- Used for makingink
Latex
- Used as medicine
- Used as Dataun
(Herbal tooth
brush)
- Young one
cooked and eaten
- Used as
ethnomedicine
- Used as
ethnomedicine
- Prevent water
erosion and for
conservation
- useful in controlling
sand drift
- possess Allelopathic
properties
TwigLeavesRootsWhole plant
Main purpose cultivating Jatropha is to produce bio-diesel
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Jatropha : Crop Yield
. Bio-FuelBio-Diesel
Yield : 2.0 ~ 12.5 tons/ha/year
It is difficult to estimate unequivocally the yield of a plant
growing in different climatic and soil conditions
1.751.250.75Yr_3
1.501.000.50Yr_2
2.752.001.10Yr_5
2.251.750.90Yr_4
0.400.250.10Yr_1
HighNormalLow
Without
Irrigation
5.005.004.25Yr_3
3.001.501.00Yr_2
12.508.005.25Yr_5
8.006.255.25Yr_4
2.501.250.75Yr_1
HighNormalLow
[Unit : ton per Hectare]With Irrigation
Source : Center for Jatropha Promotion & Biodiesel in India(http://www.jatrophaworld.org)
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. Bio-FuelBio-Diesel
Jatropha : Bio-Diesel Perspective
There is no statistics of Jatropha for biodiesel but India
has started cultivating Jatropha in huge areas and its
target is to replace 5% of diesel consumption.
3,000,0002,000,0001,000,000400,000Vietnam
2,000,0001,200,000600,000200,000Cambodia
15,000,0008,400,0004,200,0001,600,000Total
2,000,0001,200,000600,000200,000Indonesia
8,000,0004,000,0002,000,000800,000India
2020201520122010Country
Conservative conversion : two tones of biodiesel = one hectare
[Unit : ton]
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Palm Oil : Production Forecast
. Bio-FuelBio-Diesel
Palm Oil represents 30% of the world vegetable oil.
Malaysia and Indonesia produce over 80% of the world
palm oil production.
Forecast of world Palm Oil Production
12,686,417
57,088,878
2015
16,191,4419,940,1408,177,778Area (ha)
72,861,48344,730,63036,800,000(#)World Palm Oil (ton)
202020102006
* Assumption
- Annual growth rate : 5%
- Average 4.5 tones of palm oil yield per hectare (ranges from 4~6 tonnes per hectare)
* Source : Korean Energy Economics Institute
# : Indonesia produced 17 million ton of palm oil in 2006 and represents 43% of world production
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-
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
16,000,000
2006 2010 2015 2020
Aggressive
Moderate
. Bio-FuelBio-Diesel
5,708,888
11,417,776
2015
7,286,1484,473,063360,00010% targetModerate
14,572,2978,946,126360,00020% targetAggressive
202020102006
* Assumption
- Aggressive growth : 1% conversion(2006), 20%(2010~2020) for palm oil into biodiesel
- Moderate growth : 1% conversion(2006), 10%(2010~2020) for palm oil into biodiesel
Palm Oil : Bio-Diesel Growth Perspective
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Feedstocks for Biodiesel
. Bio-FuelBio-Diesel
Vegetable oil & Biodiesel feedstock Ratio and Production(2005)
ShareVolume (TOE)
100%
33,000
425,000
2,716,000
65,00033,000
Bio-Diesel
83%14%Rapeseed
100%100%Total
13%8%Sunflower
2%31%Soybean1%33%Palm
3%Coconut
4%Cotton seed
5%Peanut
1%Other
2%Olive
Vegetable OilFeedstock
Source : 1) IEA Energy Technology Essentials (January, 2007), 2) KIER
Global production was 3.9 bn litres (3.272 m TOE) in 2005
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Bio-Diesel trends by region
. Bio-FuelBio-Diesel
Source : F.O. Lichts
Million litres capacity
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Prospect and Segment : Aggressive growth case
. Bio-FuelBio-Diesel
5,645,8704,423,6873,466,0742,851,548Rapeseed
14,572,29711,417,7768,946,126360,000Palm Oil
884,293692,867542,879446,628Sunflower seed
15,000,0008,400,0001,600,000-Jatropha
136,045106,59583,52068,712Soybean
25,040,924
2015
36,238,50514,638,5993,734,888Total
202020102006
* Assumption
-Jatropha : based on yield and conversion ratio from 2010 onwards
- Palm Oil : 1% of palm oil converts to biodiesel in 2006, 20% from 2010
- Other feedstock : 5% of annual growth rate
[Unit : ton]
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Prospect and Segment : Moderate growth case
. Bio-FuelBio-Diesel
5,645,8704,423,6873,466,0742,851,548Rapeseed
7,286,1485,708,8884,473,063360,000Palm Oil
884,293692,867542,879446,628Sunflower seed
15,000,0008,400,0001,600,000-Jatropha
136,045106,59583,52068,712Soybean
19,332,036
2015
28,952,35610,165,5363,734,888Total
202020102006
* Assumption
-Jatropha : based on yield and conversion ratio from 2010 onwards
- Palm Oil : 1% of palm oil converts to biodiesel in 2006, 10% from 2010
- Other feedstock : 5% of annual growth rate
[Unit : ton]
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Feedstock specifications
. Bio-FuelBio-Ethanol
Feedstock production, costs, and emission data for bioethanol and
bio-diesel production
CO, NOxCOCOCOPollutant abatement
1.0 (b)0.3-0.50.60.6-0.8Production cost ($/lge)
18 BrazilN/A19.5 US,
5.0 China
Installed capacity
(bn l/year)
709050-6015-25CO2 reduction (%c)
N/A3,000-6,0002,000-4,0001,500-3,000Land use (lge/ha)
Heat & PowerHeat & Power--Co-products
(a)10-12N/A60-80Fossil energy input (%)
Ligno-celluolsic
Sugar caneSugar beetsCereals,maize
(a) Energy input may be higher than final ethanol energy, but most such energy comes from the biomass itself.
(b) Twice gasoline cost at $60/bbl. (c) Compared with gasoline (2.8 kg CO2/l) or conventional diesel.
Source : IEA Energy Technology Essentials (January, 2007)
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. Bio-FuelBio-Ethanol
Key factors
Can be blended to at least 10% in vehicles in OECD countries
; are blended up to 25% in Brazil
Costs for creating fuel-flexible vehicles (can run on any
mixture of ethanol and gasoline) are on the order of 100-
200 per vehicle ; many such vehicles in U.S.
Low-level ethanol blends reduce emissions of most
pollutants,
but can increase others (e.g. hydrocarbons, aldehydes).
Positive on net basis.
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. Bio-FuelBio-Ethanol
Source : IEA estimates based on a review of recent studies
Reductions in well-to-wheel CO2-equivalent GHG emissions per km, from
biofuels, compared to gasoline(for ethanol) and diesel fuel (for biodiesel)
Greenhouse Gas Reductions
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. Bio-FuelBio-Ethanol
Source : F.O. Lichts
Productions
Worldwide, Fuel Ethanol Production is Much Greater than Biodiesel.
Unit : million litres per year
Note : source IEA Bioethanol 33 bn litres, Biodiesel 3.9 bn litres (2005)
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. Bio-FuelBio-Ethanol
Source : F.O. Lichts
Productions
Fuel Ethanol Production Trends by Region
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. Bio-FuelBio-Ethanol
Source : projections based on IEA review of recent policy initiatives around the world
Possible Production Scenario
Bio-Ethanol Production : Past and Future?
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EU : targeting 5.75% of motor fuel use by 2010
US : legislation still pending that could increase ethanol use
by 2010 to around 5% of gasoline; strong price incentive
already in place
India : 5% ethanol blending required in some regions;
eventually whole country
Latin America : new production initiatives in many countries;
export orientation
Many other countries have recently announced various
incentives and targets
. Bio-FuelActivities around the world
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Prospect and Segment . Bio-Fuel
36.23925.04114.6393.735Bio-Diesel
76.38954.46538.83229.625Bio-Ethanol
1,750.3171,665.3671,584.5391,470.865ConsumptionWorld
Diesel
1,338.7271,273.7531,211.9321,124.988ConsumptionWorld
Gasoline
2.07%1.50%0.92%0.25%Ratio
(Bio-Diesel/World Diesel)
5. 71%4.28%3.20%2.63%Ratio
(Bio-Ethanol/World Gasoline)
79.505
2015
112.62853.47133.360Total
202020102006
* Assumption
- Bio-Diesel : assumed expectation based on aggressive prospect of Bio-Diesel
- Bio-Ethanol : 7% of annual growth rate
- Diesel consumption : 1.5% of annual growth rate to 2010, 1% from 2011
- Gasoline consumption : 1.5% of annual growth rate to 2010, 1% from 2011
[Unit : m TOE] Scenario : aggressive growth case
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Prospect and Segment . PV & Wind
Scenario : aggressive growth case
Aggressive Penentration of Biofuel Energy
0.25%
0.92%
1.50%
2.07%
2.63%
3.20%
4.28%
5.71%
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
2006 2010 2015 2020
year
Diesel Ratio Gasoline Ratio
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Prospect and Segment . Bio-Fuel
28.95219.33210.1663.735Bio-Diesel
57.55945.09935.33629.071Bio-Ethanol
1,750.3171,665.3671,584.5391,470.865ConsumptionWorld
Diesel
1,338.7271,273.7531,211.9321,124.988ConsumptionWorld
Gasoline
1.65%1.16%0.64%0.25%Ratio
(Bio-Diesel/World Diesel)
4.30%3.54%2.92%2.58%Ratio
(Bio-Ethanol/World Gasoline)
64.431
2015
86.51245.50232.806Total
202020102006
* Assumption
- Bio-Diesel : assumed expectation based on moderate prospect of Bio-Diesel
- Bio-Ethanol : 5% of annual growth rate
- Diesel consumption : 1.5% of annual growth rate to 2010, 1% from 2011
- Gasoline consumption : 1.5% of annual growth rate to 2010, 1% from 2011
[Unit : m
TOE]
Scenario : moderate growth case
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Prospect and Segment . Bio-Fuel
Scenario : moderate growth case
Moderate Penentration of Biofuel Energy
0.25%
0.64%
1.16%
1.65%
2.58%2.92%
3.54%
4.30%
0.00%
0.50%
1.00%
1.50%
2.00%
2.50%
3.00%
3.50%
4.00%
4.50%
5.00%
2006 2010 2015 2020year
Diesel Ratio Gasoline Ratio
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PV & Wind Power
Bio-Fuel
Conclusion
Nuclear Energy
01_ Nuclear Advantage
02_ Production
03_ Prospect and Segment
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Coal is environmentally not benign and causes
global warming and acid rain
Gas is very difficult to be transported in large quantities
Renewable Energy is not cost effective and does not
contribute significantly to reduce fossil fuel
Nuclear is the next best alternative energy source with
potential for scaling up
Nuclear Advantage . Nuclear Energy
Nuclear Energy is the best Alternative Energy to replace
Fossil Fuel
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Production . Nuclear Energy
Nuclear Power has represented the main production of
the world electricity generation.
0.0
2000.0
4000.0
6000.0
8000.0
10000.012000.0
14000.0
16000.0
18000.0
20000.0
Nuclear World Electricity
Source : BPs statistical review full report workbook 2007
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Prospect and Segment . Nuclear Energy
Forecast of growth rate
- 437 working reactors operating worldwide currently
; the average unit capacity : 815 MW(utilization rate : 90%)
- 30 under construction
- 74 planned and 182 proposed
- Construction period : approx. 5 years
- Recent single unit capacity : 1,600 MW (Olkiluoto, Filand)
- China started to build nuclear power stations
; 11 reactor operating, 4 under construction, 23 in the planning stages and
54 proposed
The annual growth rate of nuclear power generation will
enter a step change post 2010 period when new pebblebed reactor technology will be globally applied
2% of growth rate : 2006~2010
10% of growth rate : 2011~2020
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. Nuclear Energy
1,784.21,107.8687.9635.5Nuclear Generation
6,513.75,618.74,846.84,306.3Consumption
Electricity
14,637.513,257.612,007.810,878.5ConsumptionPrimary
Energy
27.39%19.72%14.19%14.76%Ratio
12.19%8.36%5.73%5.84%Ratio
2015 202020102006
* Assumption
- Nuclear Energy growth rate : 2.0%(2006~2010), 10.0%(2011~2020),Production in 2006 : 635.5 m TOE (2,808.1 TWh)
- World Electricity growth rate : 3.0%, Production in 2006 : 4,306.3 m TOE (19,027.7 TWh)
- World Primary Energy growth rate : 2.5%(2006~2010), 2.0%(2011~2020),
Production in 2006 : 10,878.5 m TOE
Prospect and Segment
[Unit : m
TOE]
Aggressive growth scenario
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Prospect and Segment . Nuclear Energy
Aggressive Penentration of Nuclear Energy
5.84% 5.73%
8.36%
12.19%
14.76% 14.19%
19.72%
27.39%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
2006 2010 2015 2020year
Primary Energy Ratio Electricity Ratio
Aggressive growth scenario
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Perspective of EnergyConsumption
. Conclusion
ShareShareShareShare
3.35%507.01. 76%238.00.97%117.20.59%64.1PV&Wind : 20%
Biofuels : 7%Renewables
23.63%3,579.327. 52%3,713.529.93%3,629.328.24%3,090.1balanceCoal
25.72%3,894.824.89%3,359.723.90%2,898.123.53%2,574.93%Gas
6.00%907.96.09%822.36. 14%744.86.29%688.12%Hydroelectricity
29.52%4,471.231.52%4,254.233.38%4,047.735.55%3,889.81%Oil
1,784.3
15,144.5
2020
687.9
12,125.0
2010
5.81%
100%
635.5
10,942.5
2006
2.0%(06-10)
10.0%(11-20)
2.5%(06-10)
2.0%(11-20)
AnnualGrowth Rate
11.78%8.21%1,107.95.67%Nuclear
100%100%13,495.6100%Primary Energy
2015Items
Scenario : aggressive growth case for renewables
[Unit : mTOE]
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Perspective of EnergyConsumption
. Conclusion
Scenario : aggressive growth case
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
35.00%
40.00%
2006 2,010.0 2015 2020(Year)
Oil Coal Gas Hydroelectricity Nuclear Renewables
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Perspective of EnergyConsumption
. Conclusion
ShareShareShareShare
1.95%294.81.24%168.00.80%97.00.57%62.2PV&Wind : 15%Biofuels : 5%
Renewables
23.63%3,579.327.52%3,713.529.93%3,629.328.24%3,090.1Same of
aggressiveCoal
25.72%3,894.824.89%3,359.723.90%2,898.123.55%2,574.93%Gas
6.00%907.96.09%822.36.14%744.86.29%688.12%Hydroelectricity
29.52%4,471.231.52%4,254.233.38%4,047.735.55%3,889.81%Oil
1,996.5
15,144.5
2020
708.1
12,125.0
2010
5.82%
100%
637.4
10,942.5
2006
balance
Same ofaggressive
AnnualGrowth Rate
13.18%8.73%1,177.95.84%Nuclear
100%100%13,495.6100%Primary Energy
2015Items
Scenario : moderate growth case for renewables[Unit : m
TOE]
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Perspective of EnergyConsumption
. Conclusion
Scenario : moderate growth case
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
35.00%
40.00%
2006 2010 2015 2020(Year)
Oil Coal Gas Hydroelectricity Nuclear Renewables
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. Conclusion
ShareShareShareShare
0.00%0.00.00%0.00.00%0.00.00%0.00Renewables
45.42%18,204.348.45%18,887.049.95%18,458.647.56%15,716.75.086 tonCO2
/TOECoal
20.34%8,151.718.04%7,031.816.42%6,065.716.31%5,389.32.093 tonCO2
/TOEGas
0.00%0.00.00%0.00.00%0.00.00%0.00Hydroelectricity
34.25%13,726.733.51%13,060.433.63%12,426.636.13%11,941.73.070 tonCO2
/TOEOil
0.0
40,082.7
2020
0.0
36,950.8
2010
0.00%
100%
0.0
33,047.6
2006
0
total
CO2 Emission
Factors
0.00%0.00%0.00.00%Nuclear
100%100%38,979.2100%Primary Energy
2015Items
[Unit : m ton]
COemission factor source : emission factor brochure 2004 by IPCC
Perspective of CO2 Emission
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Perspective of CO2 Emission . Conclusion
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
2006 2010 2015 2020
Year
GasOil
Coal
Total
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