S HIFTING F OCUS FROM U.S. T ECHNOLOGICAL D OMINANCE TO U.S. A LLIED D OMINANCE Elizabeth Royall...

SHIFTING FOCUS FROM U.S. TECHNOLOGICAL

DOMINANCE TO U.S. ALLIED DOMINANCE

Elizabeth RoyallDecisive Analytics Corporation

Is Next-Gen Tech the Only Savior of U.S. Military & Tech Dominance?

• “U.S. Military Worries About Losing Hi-Tech Edge”—AFP, 2015

• “U.S. Military Readiness, for War, Competitive Edge Worsening” –Reuters, 2014

U.S. Military Dominance

Technology Manpower Allies Training Strategy

Strengthening All the Tools in the Toolbox

Diversified, Complex Threats

PACOMAggressive China, contested East & South China Sea, North Korea

CENTCOMOperations in Iraq & Afghanistan, terrorism, sectarian fighting

EUCOMRevanchist Russia, energy security, terrorism

AFRICOM Restive terrorism & insurgencies, poor governance

SOUTHCOMInsurgencies and terrorist groups, organized crime & drug trade

NORTHCOMCyber threat, fly bys by Russia & China, terrorism

A Century of Coalition Operations

World W

ar I

World W

ar IIKorea

VietnamBeiru

t

Grenada

Panama

Gulf War

Somalia

Haiti

Bosnia/Koso

vo

Afghanistan

Iraq

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Partners Allies

Allied & Partner operations are common and growing

Partners vs. Allies

AlliesHave signed & ratified a Mutual Defense Treaty (e.g. NATO, Australia, Japan, Thailand, Peru)

Partners May have varying levels of political and/or military relationships with the U.S., may contribute troops to U.S. operations, but the U.S. has no legal obligation to defend if attacked (e.g. Israel, Ukraine, Taiwan, Mexico, Egypt)

The United States has 48 treaty allies mostly under NATO or the Rio Pact (the Americas)

Why Focus on U.S. Sole Dominance?

Amid diversified, mutating threats and a constrained defense budget, the United States must prioritize allied over sole dominance, allies over partners, and technologies and mechanisms that support allied dominance over those that solely benefit the United States.

Where are the Vulnerabilities?

Patching the Holes: Prioritizing Fixing Vulnerabilities

Exigent •Low Capacity Allies

High •High Capacity Allies

Medium •Strategically Important Partners

PACOM Example of Prioritization

Exigent •Low Capacity Allies•The Philippines & Thailand

High •High Capacity Treaty Allies•Australia, Japan, South Korea

Medium•Strategically Important Partners

•Brunei, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, New Zealand, Singapore, Taiwan, Vietnam

Technologies to Empower Alliances• Information-Sharing Platforms with High-Tech Security & Low

Tech Usability• Visibility for an Allied Common Operating Picture• Foreign Comparative Testing

• Targeted Foreign Military & Commercial Sales• Engineer & Scientist Exchange Programs• Logistics Cooperation &Planning Concentrated on

Humanitarian Assistance/Disaster Relief (HA/DR)

Non-Technology Areas to Build Capability

Enhancing DoD’s Partnership-Building Capacity

• Expanding International Armaments Cooperation• Increasing R&D in Technologies to Strengthen Alliances

Strengthening Allied Defense to Protect U.S. Dominance

Strengthening Allies, particularly weaker Allies, mitigates U.S. vulnerabilities while providing a greater deterrent value and

protecting U.S. dominance

Questions?