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Russian S&T Foresight 2030: conception and first results
Higher School of Economics
Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge
Foresight Centre
Alexander Chulok achulok@hse.ru
3rd EURussia Innovation Forum together with
21st EBN Annual Congress
13 -15 June 2012, Lappeenranta, Finland
Contents
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Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2012 2
• S&T Foresight: - historical overview
- general framework
- two groups of results
- networks of experts
• First results of S&T Foresight 2030: - global trends to be addressed
- scientific areas of emerging technologies
- “white spots” and breakthrough windows
- challenges and windows of opportunities for mature technologies
• S&T Foresight outcomes for: - research organizations
- innovations
- policy implementation
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1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2015 2020 2025 2030
Assessment of the
development
prospects of the
priority areas of
science
Long-term S&T Foresight 2030
I Cycle II Cycle
III Cycle
Science and
technology in
Russia 2010
Basic Research Forecast
Scenarios and long-term priorities of
scientific technological cooperation
between Russia and the EU
Priorities of
innovation
development for
Republic of
Bashkortostan
Strategy of the Samara
Region
Foresight for Ekaterinburg
Scenarios of the
electricity development
RF critical technologies RF critical
technologies
Long-term priorities of the
heating development
Electricity Forecast
Priorities of EU-Russia cooperation
in nanoelectronics
Roadmap for
power
engineering Science and Technology
Energy Foresight
Energy
Foresight
Forecast of ICT
development: 2020 Forecast of ICT development:
2030
Priorities of innovation development of
natural resource complex
State-owned companies
Roadmaps and Foresight
Foresight for nanotechnologies
(Rusnano)
Forecast of broadband dual-
use access technologies
development
Nanotechnology Roadmaps
Foresight and roadmaps
in the aircraft industry
Foresight priorities of
technological modernization
(Fund "Skolkovo")
S&T Foresight in Russian S&T and Innovation policy:
a historical overview
National level
1996 – 1997: Initiation of
Foresight Projects in Russia
(HSE)
Regional level
Industry level
Corporate level
Fore
sight H
orizo
n
4 4
Priorities for S&T and innovation
• Mission-oriented: Technology modernisation
• Functional: Restructuring S&T system
• Thematic: Critical technologies, S&T programmes
ISSEK HSE
Information and telecommunication systems
Living systems
Industry of nanosystems
Transportation and aerospace systems
Rational use of nature
Energy efficiency and energy saving
Energy efficiency
Nuclear technologies
Space technologies
Medicine
Strategic information technologies
Research universities
Innovation infrastructure at universities
National research centres
Centres of excellence
S&T Foresight for Russian S&T and innovation
policy: possible options for the future
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Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2012
S&T Foresight
•Evidence -based analysis •Integration of quantitative and qualitative methods •Prioritizing •Communication •Involving stakeholders •Integration to policy
Grand Challenges and Grand Responses
Demand for new skills
Policy mix
New economy
New consumers' behavior
New instruments for S&T policy
Changing society
Multidisciplinary and multicultural
research
Changing National Innovation System
Enhancing Infrastructure, networks
5
Higher School of Economics 2012
6 ISSEK HSE
Database of experts: more than 8000
International expert networks
International Advisory Board on Foresight (HSE) UNIDO, OECD
The Institute for Prospective Technological Studies, Seville, Spain The University of Manchester, UK
Industry
40 regions
All largest research centers and universities
Number of respondents
more than 800
National S&T Foresight: databases and experts networks
University -Coordinator
Coordinator (HSE)
Network of Foresight Centres: Organizational Structure
ICT
(Russian State University of
Aviation Technology)
NANO (Moscow
Institute of Physics and
Technology )
BIO (Siberian State
Medical University )
USE OF NATURE
(Moscow State University)
ENERGY
(National Research Nuclear
University MEPhI)
Universities
Business
Industrial Science
Academic Science
Foreign experts
State representatives
Centre 1
Centre 2
Centre 5
Centre 4
Centre 3
Centre 6
(S.Petesburg NRU of Information
Technologies, Mechanics and
Optics )
TRANSPORT & AEROSPACE
Virtual network
Building sustainable expert networks: Foresight centres at universities
8
3rd cycle: application-driven S&T Foresight
Identification
of points of effort’s
application
System
of priorities
Roadmaps
for priorities
realisation
External factors Alternatives
Innovative
products
and services
New
technological
solutions
R&D
Global trends and challenges of S&T
development
Scenarios of long-term S&T development
Perspective
market
segments
Highest
importance and
S&T potential
S&T
Products
Markets
ISSEK HSE
3rd S&T Foresight cycle: Key features
Methodology: combination of technology push and market pull
Wider coverage of the sectors of the Russian economy
Assessing future demand for skills
Building a sustainable participants’ networks: expert panels, Foresight
centres at leading universities
Engagement of businesses: technology platforms, programmes of
innovation development of state owned companies, business associations
Closer interaction with everyday policy making in S&T and innovation:
presentation of outputs
Wide dissemination and discussion of results, building sustainable
feedback
Moving from informing policies to
designing them ISSEK HSE
9
10
3rd S&T Foresight cycle: major components
S&T Foresight
Global and national
factors of long-term
development
S&T resources (R&D organisations, fixed assets, human resources)
Macroeconomic trends
Roadmaps for sectors and S&T priority areas
Strategies for innovation development of sectors
Policy recommendations for S&T and innovation
ISSEK HSE
Anticipated outputs
• S&T – Scientific results
– Breakthrough technologies
– Innovation products and services
– Assessment of Russia vis-à-vis world leaders
• Demand for technologies from innovation markets – Urgent demand for S&T for achieving development goals
– New markets
– Risks, barriers, limitations
– Russia’s competitive advantages
• Major sectors of economy – Scenarios
– Strategic forks
– Technological priorities
ISSEK HSE
11
S&T Foresight: Two groups of results
Energy and energy efficiency
ICT
Biotechnologies
Medicine and health
New materials and nanotechnology
Transport and space systems
Rational use of nature
Young sprouts
Technology packages
Push
Pull
1. Leading countries, Russian teams 2. Management solutions (policies) 3. Time of emergence and application 4. Financial resources
5. Infrastructure solutions 6. Required competencies
Key features
Description format
Breakthrough technologies and product groups expected to be particularly
important in 2020-2030
Groups of products and technologies with a potential to deal with critical problems
and major challenges
Priority areas
Key challenges until 2030
Technologies and technological solutions contribution to responses
Description of
technology
packages
Grand Challenges: what S&T Foresight should address?
13
1 2 3
4
5
6
7
8
9
11 10 12
13 14
15
16
17
21 20
19
18
Water security / vulnerability
Energy security / vulnerability
Diseases / health and well
being Sustainability and
climate change
Ageing & other
demographic
tensions Food security /
diet & culture
Globalisation
vs. Localisation
Social cohesion
and diversity
Technological security,
hazard & risk
Behavioural change, lifestyles
Innovation, knowledge & technology Work-Life balance and mental health
Science / technology impacts & ethics
Crime, justice,
corruption, transparency
Governance,
democracy, citizenship
Coexistence &
conflicts
Social pathologies
& ethics
Social exclusion,
poverty, affluence
Economic prosperity &
dynamics
Urban and rural dynamics
Education standards / investments
Source: iKnowfuture, the Millennium Project
14
National S&T Foresight : scientific areas of emerging technologies
Medicine and
health
Molecular diagnostics for prophylactic
and personalised medicine
Exploration, development and research of
promising drug candidates by assigning
molecular pharmacological targets
Biodegradable and composite
medical materials
Bioelectrodynamics
and X-ray medicine
Human proteomics
Transport and
space systems
Energy efficiency and
power saving
Environment
management
Information and
telecommunication
systems
New materials
and
nanotechnology
Functional
materials
Hybrid materials and
convergent technologies
Construction
materials
Computer modelling
of materials and
processes
Materials
diagnostics
Information
processing
technologies
Computer
architectures and
systems
Telecommunication
technologies
Component base,
electronic
devices, robotics
Promising technologies for
environment monitoring and
assessment, and forecasting of
natural and anthropogenic
emergencies
Environment
preservation and
safety technologies
Exploration, prospecting and
integrated use of mineral and
hydrocarbon resources
Development of
integrated
transport
environment
Increasing transport
systems’ safety and
environmental properties
Intelligent energy
systems of the future
Modelling promising
energy technologies
and systems
Promising
energy
technologies
Efficient use of
power
Predictive modelling,
techniques and tools for
developing and maintaining
promising systems
Information
securityAlgorithms and
software
Biotechnology
Agribiotechnologies
Forest biotechnologies
Industrial
biotechnologies
Development of
methodologies for
biotech research
Environmental
biotechnologies
Food production
biotechnologies
Aquabioculture
Human genome
description for
prophylactic and
personalised
medicine
Technologies,
prototypes and stands
for developing
promising transport
and space systems
Exploration and
utilisation of
oceanic, Arctic and
Antarctic resources
New materials and
catalysts for power
engineering of the
future
Biomedical
cellular
technologies
National S&T Foresight : Challenges and windows of
opportunities for technologies
Medicine and health
Global trends
Transport systems Energy
• Increase of cancer rates
• Proliferation of city diseases
• Lack of organs and tissues
for transplanting
• High mortality rate
• Small towns and villages do
not have advanced medical
facilities nearby
• Inefficient rehabilitation
system
Gene and cell therapy
Drug delivery and
localisation systems
Biocompatible non-
degradable materials
• Stricter environmental
requirements
• Increased energy saving
requirements
• Safety on transport
• Increased global energy
consumption
• Exhaustion of cheap
conventional energy
resources
• Vulnerability of power
infrastructure
• Low oil recovery ratio at
traditional oilfields
• Low efficiency of gas
steam-turbine plants
• High energy waste in the
grids
Highly efficient heat and
power natural gas based
plants
New technologies for
burning organic fuels
New hydrogen production,
storage and consumption
technologies
• Low energy efficiency and
reliability of vehicles
• Inefficient monocentric
radial structure of the
transportation network
Hybrid automobile
engines
Low-carbon sustainable
vehicles
Intelligent transport
networks
S&T areas
Russian challenges
16
Scientific areas: “white spots” and breakthrough
windows
Opportunities
to join forces
and increase
efficiency
ICT
Nano
Transport & space
Energy
Bio Medicine
Functional structure composite
materials for dental and maxillofacial
implants
Biotechnological processes for producing
industrial and medical bioproducts in plants
and animals
Computational systems’ component prototypes
High-temperature and durable turbine
buckets
High-temperature
superconductivity
Materials diagnostics Use of Nature
Techniques to cultivate marine
organisms’ cell lines
Tissue equivalents and artificial live
human organs
Software systems’ prototypes for real-
time analysis of complex 3D images and
videos
Traffic flows’ and transport systems’ intelligent management systems’ models
Wireless energy transfer
Detoxication of air and water environments
Next-generation engineering systems for energy-efficient buildings
Technologies for deep processing of organic fuels
Significantly
below the
world level:
“white spots”
Opportunities to
increase
competencies to
the world level
World
leader Technologies for separating and purifying
gaseous mixtures and liquids
Technologies for mathematical modelling and optimisation of next-
generation power generating and related installations’ schemes and
parameters
Climate and climate change modelling
New distributed computing principles
Bio-testing and bio-indication techniques
offering increased sensitivity and selectivity
Human proteome
profiling
Chemistry of solids
Nanosize catalysts
and membranes for
deep integrated
processing of raw
materials
State-of-the-art
17
Results: Foresight-based investment decisions
Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2012
18
Results: optional strategies based on roadmaps
Markets
Price vs quality
Technical
requirements
R&D Manufacturing Product Market
Technological
chain PRODUCT
Import of
technologies
R&D
19
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Research organizations
Formulation of basic research plans Formulation of R&D agenda
Research universities
Development of research agenda Development of education programs Participation in joint R&D
S&T Foresight Research organizations
20
20
S&T Foresight Innovation
Large firms
Revelation of challenges and windows of opportunities Development of innovation strategies Development of technology modernization plans
NIS infrastructure
Funds; Development institutes
SMEs
Comprehension of S&T priorities Participation in joint research projects
Participation in revising and realization of S&T priorities Development of joint R&D agenda, support for strategic initiatives
21
Russian S&T policy framework till 2020 RF Strategy for innovation development Strategy-2020
Government and federal target programs Innovation infrastructure at universities Bridging universities and industry Establishing international labs at universities
Strategies for regions and cities development
Technology platforms Corporate innovation development programs Clusters development programs
S&T Foresight Policy Implementation
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