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Russia 2019: risk-averse mode
Dmitry Dolgin, Chief Economist, Russia & CIS November 2018
Key messages and forecasts for 2019
2 Sources: CEIC Database, Bloomberg, Rosstat, ING
- GDP growth at modest 1.0% due to weakening household consumption as a result of higher VAT rate and declining confidence in sustainable income growth;
- Corporate activity limited around state-sponsored projects, local corporate loan growth not broad based, mostly reflects infrastructure projects and substitution of foreign debt;
- rouble to remain stable on balanced current and capital accounts unless portfolio flows deteriorate. Sanctions against new state debt not priced in, remain a downside risk;
- Key rate unlikely to go lower on mounting CPI risks (VAT hike, gasoline prices) and external uncertainties (US-China, US-Russia);
- Budget policy likely to be eased on expenditure in response to weaker GDP, declining popular support; and on revenues (oil tax manoeuvre/excise) in response to gasoline price risks;
- Banking sector: more interconnected with CBR and the Ministry of Finance. Interbank interest rates depend on budget rule-related FX purchases and key rate expectations.
Quarterly indicators 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18F 1Q19F 2Q19F 3Q19F 4Q19F
Real GDP (%YoY) 2.2 0.9 1.3 1.9 1.3 1.7 1.1 0.8 1.2 1.1
CPI (eop, %YoY) 3.0 2.5 2.4 2.3 3.4 4.0 5.2 5.7 5.4 4.8
Central bank key rate (eop, %) 8.50 7.75 7.25 7.25 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50
3m interest rate (eop, %) 8.7 7.9 7.3 7.5 8.1 8.3 8.1 7.9 7.7 7.5
10yr yield (eop, %) 7.6 7.5 7.1 7.7 8.5 8.5 8.3 8.1 7.9 7.5
USD/RUB exchange rate (eop) 57.6 57.6 56.9 57.5 65.6 63.0 64.0 65.0 66.0 65.0
EUR/RUB exchange rate (eop) 69.1 69.1 68.3 67.3 75.4 72.5 73.6 76.7 79.2 81.3
Domestic demand under pressure
- In 3Q18 the GDP growth moderated to 1.3% year on year due to the slowdown in the activity of households and producers
- Contribution of the consumer demand and investment activity is decreasing
Source: Rosstat, MinEco, ING3
Producers and consumers’ activity remains soft GDP growth is increasingly dependent on the external sector
- Limiting factors: end of electoral cycle, completion of large investment projects (World Cup 2018 and Crimea), rising geopolitical uncertainty
- Reliance on the external sector is growing: through the rise in volumes of exports and lower imports amid weaker rouble
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
Jan
-16
Ap
r-1
6
Jul-
16
Oct
-16
Jan
-17
Ap
r-1
7
Jul-
17
Oct
-17
Jan
-18
Ap
r-1
8
Jul-
18
Oct
-18
GDP, % YoY (lhs)Industrial output, % YoY (rhs)Retail trade, % YoY (lhs)
1.3%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
3Q
13
4Q
13
1Q
14
2Q
14
3Q
14
4Q
14
1Q
15
2Q
15
3Q
15
4Q
15
1Q
16
2Q
16
3Q
16
4Q
16
1Q
17
2Q
17
3Q
17
4Q
17
1Q
18
2Q
18
3Q
18
ConsumptionInvestmentsNet exportsInventoriesGDP, % YoY
Households keep a cautious stance…
- Retail trade growth has stabilized around 2-3% YoY despite the drop in unemployment to the record-low level of 4.5-4.7% and the outperformance of real wages (account for 2/3 of the total households’ incomes) at 5-10%.
- Consumer confidence (mostly driven by the low-income segment) remains under pressure: rise in public wages might be temporary, the planned increase in the VAT since Jan-2019, increase in retirement age.
- Acceleration in the retail loan growth to 22% (the share of mortgages and unsecured loans – 50/50) points to a moderately positive sentiment among higher-income households.
Source: Rosstat, CBR, ING4
Record-low unemployment together with the rise in wages do not accelerate the private consumption growth
Since 2017, the population has attracted consumer loans more actively, although not as much as in 2013
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Oct
10
Ap
r 1
1
Oct
11
Ap
r 1
2
Oct
12
Ap
r 1
3
Oct
13
Ap
r 1
4
Oct
14
Ap
r 1
5
Oct
15
Ap
r 1
6
Oct
16
Ap
r 1
7
Oct
17
Ap
r 1
8
Oct
18
Mortgage loans, ppt
Car loans, ppt
Other, ppt
Retail loans, % YoY
RUB retail deposits, % YoY
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
6.5%
7.0%
7.5%
8.0%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
Oct
-10
Ap
r-1
1
Oct
-11
Ap
r-1
2
Oct
-12
Ap
r-1
3
Oct
-13
Ap
r-1
4
Oct
-14
Ap
r-1
5
Oct
-15
Ap
r-1
6
Oct
-16
Ap
r-1
7
Oct
-17
Ap
r-1
8
Oct
-18
Unemployment, % (rhs)
Real salary, % YoY (lhs)
Retail trade, % YoY (lhs)
5
9M18 monthly average salary by sector Nominal salary growth by sector
… due to low confidence in income growth
Sources : Rosstat, Bank of Russia, ING
26%
16% 16% 16%
11% 10%9%
9%8%
7% 7% 7% 6%6%
2% 2%
8%
4%
11%
7% 7%
16%
3%
21%
2%
5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
9M17, % YoY 9M18, % YoY % of employed (rhs)
Salary growth, % YoY % of employed population
Budget-driven
27457
33205
33765
36030
39290
42011
42325
42471
43836
44604
47143
62839
67723
86206
0 20000 40000 60000 80000
Agro
Education
Trade
Construction&RE
Healthcare
Utilities
Total
Culture&Leisure
Manufact./ComEX
Civil servants&Military
Transport
R&D
IT&Telco
Finance
RUB per month
- Acceleration in the salary growth is seen predominantly in the lower-income, budget-dependent sectors (education, healthcare, etc.) accounting for 25% of Russia’s 73 mln employees. Increase in their consumer confidence is limited as the electoral cycle is over
- The remaining 75% of employees (with exception of IT&telco, accounting for 2%) do not see faster salary growth
Investment demand looks constrained
- As large investment projects related to the World Cup 2018 and construction of infrastructure are completed, the investments activity is slowing down. Demand for borrowed funds seems to be limited: in 2017-18 the rise in the corporates’ debt burden made up RUB1.3-1.5trln per year against RUB3-6trln in 2011-13.
- Companies decrease the external debt burden and replace it with local bank loans. Domestic bond market is growing from a low base, but growth has slowed in 2018 due to deteriorating external conditions.
Source: Rosstat, CBR, ING6
…which reflects substitution of foreign debt; local corporate bond market continues to grow from low base
Corporate activity (industrial output, construction) moderate, recovery in local loan growth seen since 2018…
-18%
-15%
-12%
-9%
-6%
-3%
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
Corporate loans, % YoY (net of FX revaluation effect)Construction, % YoY (LHS)Industrial production, % YoY (LHS)
0.50.9
1.4 1.40.9
2.1
0.6
2.4
-0.4 -0.7 -0.8 -0.4-1.2
3.4
2.5
2.2
3.00.8
-1.1
0.5 1.6
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6Local bondsForeign debtLocal loansReal CAPEX, % YoY (rhs)
RUB TRLN, GROWTH INCOMPANIES' DEBT FOR 12M
Lending recovery uneven by sectorCorporate loan growth by sector and book size
Sources : Bank of Russia, Rosstat, ING7
Sectors by leverage and NPL levels
Manufacturing
AgroCommodity
extraction
Regulated
sectors
Construction
Trade
Transport
& Telco
Real estate
Other sectors
(?)
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
-25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%
X: 2017 loan growth, % YoY
Y: Current loan growth, % YoY
* Bubble size corresponds to the
loan portfolio size
Real estate
Regulated
sectors
Commodity
extraction
Construction
Trade
Transport
&Telco
Manufacturing
Agro
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20%
X: 2017 NPL, %
Y: Current NPL, %
* Bubble size corresponds to
leverage as % of sector’s value added
- With exception for transport and telcos (7% of portfolio), pick up in local lending is driven by sectors with high NPL/leverage (construction, trade, agriculture – 24% of portfolio) or unidentifiable (other, 21% of portfolio)
- Sectors with the highest quality (industrials, 41% of portfolio) are either deleveraging (oil exporters) or showing stable demand for local loans
USD/RUB: with current account surplus sterilized…
- Since 2017, the share of rolled over corporate foreign debt is decreasing due to low investment demand. In 3Q18 it was only 40% on external risks.
- In 3Q18, net foreign debt redemption accounted for $15 out of $19 bln net capital outflow
- As a result, current account surplus is being routinely sterilized even in the absence of FX interventions
- Suspension of MinFin FX purchases on the open market till the end-2018 was a forced balancing measure
- At Urals around $65/bbl current account to be fully sterilized by FX interventions and foreign debt redemptions in 2Q-4Q19
Source: Rosstat, Minfin, CBR, ING8
Corporates have intensified the external debt repayments…
… promoting larger private capital outflows…. … and does not allow the rouble to take advantage of the growing current account surplus
13 15
710 11 12 11
17
-4
19
23 58 5 8
30
19
26
35
30
1517
22
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18F 1Q19F 2Q19F 3Q19F 4Q19F
MF FX interventions Net private capital outflowCurrent account surplus
-44 -44-27 -26 -25
48%
65%
74% 72% 71%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
-150
-120
-90
-60
-30
0
2H14 2015 2016 2017 9M18
Scheduled gross corp. foreign debt redemptions, $bln (lhs)Actual change in foreign corp. debt, $bln (lhs)Share of refinanced foreign debt, % (rhs)
-125
-84
-104-95 -87
65 6692
-31
-44-26
-34
-81-54
-60
-152
-57
-25-44
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2017 3Q18
Change in corp. foreign debt, $ blnOther private flows, $ blnNet private capital flow, $ bln
$ BLN, 4Q MOVING TOTAL
…RUB depends on the portfolio flows
- YTD, rouble weakened by 12% to USD, in line with the peer currencies (-9%) amid EM risk-off. Since 2Q18 non-residents outflows from OFZ made up approximately RUB600bn leading to the increase in the OFZ yields by 150-200bp, also in line with peers. The ruble’s discount to the peers (mostly, geopolitical) is stable at around 15%.
- Risks related to the extension of sanctions against the new sovereign debt might be not fully priced-in by the markets. Non-residents are holding US$27bn worth of OFZ. In case of new sanctions, they can reduce their positions by up to 30% (as it occurred in 2014). Each US$5bn of capital outflows correspond to weaker fair value of the rouble by 1USD/RUB, but market reaction can be sharper.
Source: Bloomberg, ING9
USD/RUB dynamic stays in line with the EM/commodity peers… …reflecting global capital flows in EM amid rising Fed rates, mounting US-China trade conflict
-40%
-35%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
Jan
14
Ap
r 1
4
Jul 1
4
Oct
14
Jan
15
Ap
r 1
5
Jul 1
5
Oct
15
Jan
16
Ap
r 1
6
Jul 1
6
Oct
16
Jan
17
Ap
r 1
7
Jul 1
7
Oct
17
Jan
18
Ap
r 1
8
Jul 1
8
Oct
18
USD/RUB discount to peers*
USD/RUB (lhs)
USD/peers*, (lhs)
* equal weight FX basket of S. Africa, Brazil, Mexico, Turkey, Malaysia, Norway, Colombia
Index of FX vs. USD
RUB discount to peer basket
De
pre
cia
tio
n v
s. U
SD
RUB’s discount to peers*
RUB/USD index
Peers*/USD index
9
10
11
12
13
6
7
8
9
10 Russia
Mexico
Indonesia
India
Brazil (rhs)
% %
10
CPI growth is on the rise, inflation expectations are weakening Real interest rates in Russia are the highest among peers
Inflationary pressure mounts
Source: Rosstat, CBR, Bloomberg, ING
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
No
v 1
4
Jan
15
Ma
r 1
5
Ma
y 1
5
Jul 1
5
Se
p 1
5
No
v 1
5
Jan
16
Ma
r 1
6
Ma
y 1
6
Jul 1
6
Se
p 1
6
No
v 1
6
Jan
17
Ma
r 1
7
Ma
y 1
7
Jul 1
7
Se
p 1
7
No
v 1
7
Jan
18
Ma
r 1
8
Ma
y 1
8
Jul 1
8
Se
p 1
8
No
v 1
8
RUSSIA INDIA
CHINA TURKEY
INDONESIA BRAZIL
MEXICO S. AFRICA
%
Arguments in favor of unchanged CBR rate:• Households’ CPI expectations moderated• Freeze in gasoline prices reached till Mar-19• Russian real rates highest among EMs• GDP and consumption growth weakening• CPI risks related to VAT hike accounted for
Potential triggers for further hikes:• If weekly CPI remains at ~0.15% per week, then
FY18 CPI exceeds the CBR guideline of 4.2% YoY• Further risk-off towards Russia (USA-China, USA-
Russia tensions) could weaken RUB. 10% RUB depreciation adds up to 1 pp to CPI trend
7.50%
9.8%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
No
v 1
4
Ma
y 1
5
No
v 1
5
Ma
y 1
6
No
v 1
6
Ma
y 1
7
No
v 1
7
Ma
y 1
8
No
v 1
8
CPI, % YoY Key rate, % Expected CPI in 12М (HH)
4.0%
- Budget draft looks conservative: it implies expenditures of 17% of GDP – lowest since 2017 –amid decreasing political ratings.
- Extra outlays could be financed without breaking the budget rule in case of weaker rouble compared to the planned 64/USD. Each 10 USD/RUB increases revenues by RUB1.2-1.3trn.
- Easing of the budget rule – an increase in the base oil price, for example, by 10$/bbl – allows either to raise the spending by RUB1.5-1.8trn per year due to non-replenishment of the National Welfare Fund, or decrease the level of the local borrowing by this amount.
11
Budget: will it remain conservative?
Official budget draft for 2019-21 Budget expenditures and popular support
Source: MinFin, Levada Center, ING
2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F
Avg USD/RUB 61.7 63.9 63.8 64.0
“Base" Urals, $/bbl 40.8 41.6 42.4 43.3
Base oil and gas revenues, RUB trn 4.7 4.9 5.2 5.4
Non-oil and gas revenues, RUB trn 10.1 11.7 12.3 13.0
Expenditures, RUB trn 16.8 18.0 19.0 20.0
Budget balance under base Urals -2.0 -1.4 -1.6 -1.7
Sources of funding, RUB trn 2.0 1.4 1.6 1.7
Gross outlays of the NWF, RUB trn 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Net OFZ placements, RUB trln 0.7 1.7 1.8 1.6
Other 0.2 -0.3 -0.3 0.1
Actual Urals, $/bbl. 69.6 63.4 59.7 57.9
Additional oil revenues->NWF, RUB trn 4.1 3.4 2.8 2.6
Final budget balance 2.1 1.9 1.2 1.0
…% GDP 2.1% 1.8% 1.1% 0.8%
Local state debt, % GDP 9.8% 10.9% 12.1% 12.7%
State savings, % GDP 4.8% 7.7% 10.4% 12.1%
Breakeven Urals, $/bbl 53 49 50 51
Revenues’ sensitivity, RUB trn
+10 $/bbl Urals = 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.8
+10 USD/RUB = 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.3
16
% 18
%
18
%
25
%
22
%
20
%
19
%
19
%
19
%
19
%
19
%
18
%
17
%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
22%
24%
26%
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
Federal budget expenditures, % of GDP (lhs)President's approval rating, (rhs)
- In case of further capital outflows from the EM and/or imposition of sanctions against the new sovereign debt, the MinFin will not be able to rely on non-residents as buyers of OFZs. The borrowing plan might be reduced in the event of depreciation of the rouble and/or in case of softening of the budget rule (see the previous slide).
- The backup plan for the MinFin is to consider local banks as the key OFZs’ buyers that now have a structural liquidity surplus of about RUB3trn, but now it is shrinking by RUB500bn per month due to the CBR’s suspension of the FX purchases on the open market.
12
In 2015-17 non-residents accounted for 2/3 of the OFZ market growth, further prospects are under question
Local banks: resource for the MinFin?
Source: MinFin, CBR, ING
298
642
1,107
806
1,7051,800
1,578
194
446713
-377*9%
9%9%
10%
11%
12%
13%
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2015 2016 2017 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F
OFZ market growth, RUB bln
Foreign inflows in OFZ
State local debt, % GDP (rhs)
RUB bln
* - 9М18
% GDP
24.5%
34.5%
25.0%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
Monthly non-residident flows, $ blnShare of non-residents on the OFZ market (rhs)
OFZ market has saw foreign capital outflow of ~$1 bln per month since April
Corporate funding – growing dependence on MFCorporate funding net of Minfin deposits with banks
Sources : Bank of Russia, Bloomberg, MinFin, ING13
Russian banks’ liabilities with Minfin
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Jan
-14
Ap
r-1
4
Jul-
14
Oct
-14
Jan
-15
Ap
r-1
5
Jul-
15
Oct
-15
Jan
-16
Ap
r-1
6
Jul-
16
Oct
-16
Jan
-17
Ap
r-1
7
Jul-
17
Oct
-17
Jan
-18
Ap
r-1
8
Jul-
18
Oct
-18
FX funding $ bln (rhs)Corporate funding (net of Minfin) % y/yRUB corporate funding (net of Minfin), % y/y
$ bln% YoY
4304
-334
-1,955
-2967
-1318
3022
-3000
-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
Jan
-14
Ap
r-1
4
Jul-
14
Oct
-14
Jan
-15
Ap
r-1
5
Jul-
15
Oct
-15
Jan
-16
Ap
r-1
6
Jul-
16
Oct
-16
Jan
-17
Ap
r-1
7
Jul-
17
Oct
-17
Jan
-18
Ap
r-1
8
Jul-
18
Oct
-18
Minfin deposits with banks, RUB bln
YTD budget balance, RUB bln (rhs)
RUB bln RUB bln
- Corporates are gradually reducing exposure to FX savings, replacing it with RUB accounts. Corporate funding growth outperforms lending due to constrained investment demand
- Banking sector’s dependence on Finance Ministry’s deposits is growing, reflecting large budget surplus. Currently, Minfin holds RUB4.3 trln on bank deposits, alleviating the negative effect of RUB3.0 YTD budget surplus and the halt to FX purchases on rouble liquidity
Interbank market – shrinking, CBR role growsBanks’ balance with the CBR
Sources : Bank of Russia, ING14
Interbank market (liabilities)
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Jan
-14
Ma
y-1
4
Se
p-1
4
Jan
-15
Ma
y-1
5
Se
p-1
5
Jan
-16
Ma
y-1
6
Se
p-1
6
Jan
-17
Ma
y-1
7
Se
p-1
7
Jan
-18
Ma
y-1
8
Se
p-1
8
FX interbank loans, $ bln (rhs)
RUB interbank loans, % YoY
% YoY $ bln
- Local interbank market is shrinking on both FX and RUB sides, reflecting fragmentation of the banking sector, uneven access to liquidity by various groups
- Banks have generally positive liquidity balance with the CBR, however their dependence on the CBR liquidity is also increasing, reflecting bailouts
-6,000
-4,000
-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
Jan
14
Ap
r 1
4
Jul 1
4
Oct
14
Jan
15
Ap
r 1
5
Jul 1
5
Oct
15
Jan
16
Ap
r 1
6
Jul 1
6
Oct
16
Jan
17
Ap
r 1
7
Jul 1
7
Oct
17
Jan
18
Ap
r 1
8
Jul 1
8
Oct
18
Cash with CBRBanks' RUB debt to CBROBR
RUB bln
Interest rates: upward pressureCBR interest rate corridor, Mosprime 3M and USD/RUB
Sources : Bank of Russia, Bloomberg, ING15
25
35
45
55
65
75
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
Ma
r-1
0
Jul-
10
No
v-1
0
Ma
r-1
1
Jul-
11
No
v-1
1
Ma
r-1
2
Jul-
12
No
v-1
2
Ma
r-1
3
Jul-
13
No
v-1
3
Ma
r-1
4
Jul-
14
No
v-1
4
Ma
r-1
5
Jul-
15
No
v-1
5
Ma
r-1
6
Jul-
16
No
v-1
6
Ma
r-1
7
Jul-
17
No
v-1
7
Ma
r-1
8
Jul-
18
USD/RUB (RHS)Mosprime 3M, %CBR key rate, %CBR fixed REPO rate, %
%
-300
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
-3500-3000-2500-2000-1500-1000
-5000
500100015002000250030003500
Ma
r-1
0
Jul-
10
No
v-1
0
Ma
r-1
1
Jul-
11
No
v-1
1
Ma
r-1
2
Jul-
12
No
v-1
2
Ma
r-1
3
Jul-
13
No
v-1
3
Ma
r-1
4
Jul-
14
No
v-1
4
Ma
r-1
5
Jul-
15
No
v-1
5
Ma
r-1
6
Jul-
16
No
v-1
6
Ma
r-1
7
Jul-
17
No
v-1
7
Ma
r-1
8
Jul-
18
Bank liquidity balance*, RUB bln (LHS)Spread 3M mosprime - CBR key rate, bps (RHS)
* - bank liquidity balance = banks' correspondent accounts and deposits with the CBR PLUS CBR Bonds MINUS banks' liabilities to CBR and Finance Ministry
RUB bln bps
Banks’ liquidity balance and interest rate spread
- Since mid-2018 interbank rates see upward pressure amid accelerated net capital outflow, increase in the CBR key rate and expectations of further tightening, and the halt in FX purchases by the CBR in favour of Minfin
- The banks’ broad liquidity surplus with CBR and Minfin has shrunk by RUB2 trln to since mid-year to RUB1 trln currently, reflecting material increase of MF deposits with banks
- Further IR performance to depend on whether CBR reserves resume growth (whether it recommences FX purchases)
Russia: Annual indicators
16 Sources: CEIC Database, Bloomberg, Rosstat, ING
Annual indicators
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018F 2019F 2020F
Activity
Real GDP (%YoY) 5.2 -7.8 4.5 4.3 3.7 1.8 0.7 -2.5 -0.2 1.5 1.6 1.0 1.5
Private consumption (%YoY) 10.6 -5.1 5.5 6.8 7.9 5.2 2.0 -9.4 -2.8 3.4 2.5 1.0 1.5
Investment (%YoY) 10.6 -14.4 5.9 9.1 5.0 1.3 -1.8 -11.2 0.8 4.3 3.0 1.5 3.0
Industrial production (%YoY) 0.6 -10.7 7.3 5.0 3.4 0.4 1.7 -0.8 1.3 1.0 3.0 1.5 2.5
Prices
CPI (average, %YoY) 14.1 11.7 6.9 8.4 5.1 6.7 7.8 15.6 7.1 3.7 2.9 5.3 3.6
CPI (year-end, %YoY) 13.3 8.8 8.8 6.1 6.6 6.5 11.4 12.9 5.4 3.4 4.0 4.8 4.0
Wage rates (nominal, %YoY) 27.4 9.1 12.8 11.7 16.4 9.3 8.3 4.2 7.8 7.2 10.3 5.0 4.0
Fiscal balance (% of GDP)
Consolidated government balance 4.9 -6.3 -3.4 1.4 0.4 -1.2 -1.1 -3.4 -3.7 -1.5 2.5 1.3 1.3
Consolidated primary balance 5.3 -5.6 -2.9 2.8 1.0 -0.5 -0.4 -3.0 -3.2 -0.6 3.6 2.5 2.6
Total public debt 6.5 8.3 9.0 9.4 9.8 10.6 11.8 12.5 13.3 12.6 12.9 13.7 14.7
External balance
Current account balance (US$bn) 104 50 67 97 71 33 58 69 26 33 110 80 90
Current account balance (% of GDP) 10.4 5.6 5.9 6.7 4.2 2.1 5.3 6.5 1.8 2.1 6.7 4.9 5.4
Foreign exchange reserves ex gold (US$bn) 413 417 443 454 487 470 339 320 318 356 383 467 532
Debt indicators
Gross external debt (US$bn) 480 466 489 539 636 729 600 519 512 518 459 436 418
Gross external debt (% of GDP) 48.2 52.1 43.1 37.2 37.7 45.2 55.0 49.3 36.8 33.0 28.8 26.8 25.1
Lending to corporates/households (% of GDP) 40.0 41.5 39.2 38.6 40.7 46.0 53.2 54.7 50.7 50.0 52.5 53.7 55.5
Interest & exchange rates
Central bank key rate (year-end, %) n/a 6.00 5.00 5.25 5.50 7.50 17.00 11.00 10.00 7.75 7.50 7.50 6.50
3m interest rate (Mosprime, average, %) 11.1 11.5 4.1 5.5 7.2 6.9 10.5 13.8 11.2 9.4 7.7 7.9 6.8
3m interest rate spread over US$-Libor(ppt) 655 1036 325 409 662 668 1030 1382 1142 968 802 815 678
2yr yield (average, %) 7.5 9.3 5.9 6.7 6.9 6.2 9.0 11.6 9.2 7.7 7.1 7.6 6.6
10yr yield (average, %) 7.6 11.2 7.6 8.6 8.2 7.5 9.5 11.1 8.9 7.9 7.9 8.1 7.1
USD/RUB exchange rate (year-end) 29.4 30.2 30.5 32.1 30.6 32.9 58.3 72.9 61.2 57.6 63.0 65.0 67.0
USD/RUB exchange rate (average) 41.4 43.4 40.8 41.7 40.3 45.3 72.7 79.3 61.9 58.6 62.2 64.6 66.6
EUR/RUB exchange rate (year-end) 41.1 43.2 40.9 41.8 40.3 45.1 70.5 79.5 64.6 69.1 72.5 81.3 87.1
EUR/RUB exchange rate (average) 60.9 60.7 54.7 58.3 52.0 60.3 95.9 87.2 65.3 66.8 72.2 78.2 85.2
Brent oil price (annual average, US$/bbl) 59 94 36 78 96 111 113 108 45 55 75 66 69
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