Review of Rural Highway Traffic Counts Can the Trans-Texas Corridor be Justified? By Erik Slotboom...

Review of Rural Highway Traffic Counts

Can the Trans-Texas Corridor be Justified?

By Erik SlotboomToll & Corridor Summit Meeting

November 13, 2004

Also by Erik Slotboom

FireRicWilliamson.com HoustonFreeways.com

Founded by Erik Slotboom: TexasFreeway.com

Trans-Texas Corridor Overall Conclusions

• Only one corridor may justify a relief route:I-35, San Antonio to Hillsboro

• Existing Interstates are adequate in all other cases

• Some sections of existing Interstates will need a 3rd lane in each direction by 2034

• Trans-Texas corridor cannot be justified

How much traffic can existing Interstates handle?

Approximate

Typical 4-lane Rural Interstate

Interstate 35W South of Fort Worth

Typical 4 lane InterstateHow much traffic can it carry?

Vehicles/day

Rural I-35 S of Waco

I-45 S of Huntsville

56,000

45,000

Urban I-45 S of Conroe

US 59 Sugar Land (1999)

I-820 Fort Worth

102,000

129,000

124,000

• A 4-lane freeway can serve > 100,000 vehicles/daywith reduced service

Typical 6-lane Interstate

I-35 North of New Braunfels

Typical 6 lane InterstateHow much traffic can it carry?

Vehicles/day

Rural I-35 N of San Marcos 76,000

UrbanI-10 West Houston

Loop 1 Mopac Austin

220,000

170,000

• A 6-lane freeway can serve > 200,000 vehicles/daywith reduced service

Implied Tran-Texas Corridor Traffic

6-lane Trans-Texas

10-lane Trans-Texas

Existing Interstate

50,000 50,000

Trans-Texas + 100,000 + 200,000

Total Traffic 150,000 250,000

What kind of traffic counts do we have in 2003?

Is it anywhere approaching Trans-Texas capacity?

2003 traffic data

Source: TxDOT

• Existing traffic volumes are easily handled by existing 4-lane Interstates

Will traffic grow to Trans-Texas proportions?

Interstate 10Houston to San Antonio

2003 Traffic Data

Interstate 45Houston to Dallas

2003 traffic data

Interstate 35San Antonio to Laredo

“NAFTA Corridor”

• There has not been a NAFTA traffic boom

• Traffic counts stagnant since 2000

2003 traffic data

NAFTA Influence

• Strong growth in 1990s

• Stagnant since 1999

• Traffic Count still very low

Interstate 69 Corridor

• Can it justify a Trans-Texas corridor?

NO.

A conventional 4-lane interstate will serve traffic needs

6-lane sections needed approaching Houston

2003 traffic data

Interstate 35San Antonio to Hillsboro

• The only corridor that could possibly justify something resembling a Trans-Texas corridor

• Original TxDOT plan:widen existing facility to 6 (rural) and 8 (urban) lanes

2003 traffic data

• 4-lane sections south of Hillsboro need added lane in each direction immediately

• Expansion on hold pending Trans-Texas plan

I-35 2004 Status

Financial Case Study

• What if we build a Trans Texas Corridor from Georgetown to Hillsboro?

This is the only corridor section that has a remote chance of being viable

How Much Would It Cost?

Construction $1.38 billion $28.2 million/mile

Right-of-Way $300 million (est.) $6 million/mile

Compare to SH 130, Austin to Georgetown: 6 lanes, 102 miles

Assume a minimal Trans-Texas corridor, 4 highway lanes only but on a wide corridor

Cost per mile 110 miles

Construction $20 million $2.2 billion

Right-of-way $4 million $440 million

2.64 billion

Other costs .11 billion

Total 2.75 billion

How Much Traffic Will Use It?

Compare to Hardy Toll Road / I-45 Corridor in

Houston to determine I-35 / Trans-Texas split

• Interstate 45 north in Houston is one of the most heavily loaded freeways in the United States (per lane-mile)

Conclusion

• Toll road traffic has been consistent at 15% of corridor traffic in spite of severe congestion on I-45

• Motorists will endure severe congestion to avoid tolls

Analysis Assumption

• Toll percent of corridor traffic stays low until I-35 is severely congested

I-35 TrafficVehicles per day

Toll Traffic as % of Total

<75,000 10%

75,000-100,000 40% of traffic over 75,000

>100,000 80% of traffic over 100,000

Other Assumptions

• No capacity improvements to I-35;4-lane sections remain 4 lanes forever

• $10 toll Georgetown-Hillsboro ($.09/mile)increasing at 3% per year

• 10% corridor traffic increase after 20 years due to induced demand

• Assume 4.5% interest, 40 year term on $2.75 billion in bonds. Annual Payment: $149 million

Financial Shortfall

• About 25 years of subsidy required

Where will the money come from?

Toll Interstate 35!

Conclusion

• Tolling existing rural interstates is the only way to make any Trans-Texas corridor viable

– Bribe rural counties with a cut of the money to defuse rural opposition

Other Financial Risks

• High gasoline cost – lower traffic counts

• Faulty assumptions (eg NAFTA)

• Lower than forecast population growth

• Predominantly Hispanic population

– Hispanic regions most anti-toll

– Lower income groups can’t afford tolls

Slower Population Growth?

Dallas Morning News, October 4, 2004

NAFTA: what happened?

1990s assumption:

future traffic boom

2000s reality:

Everything is being made in China

Result:

Flat traffic volume to Mexico

Alameda Corridor in Los AngelesPaying the Price for Faulty Assumptions

• $2.5 billion spent on rail lineNow it is grossly underutilized

“In the nearly two decades it took to plan and build the corridor, the shipping business changed so dramatically that the economic assumptions underpinning the project became obsolete.” L.A. Times, August 22, 2004

A Better Way to Meet Our Needs

• Add extra lanes to existing interstates as needed

• Rebuilding a 4-lane interstate to a 6-lane interstate costs about $10 million per mile, half the cost of a Trans-Texas corridor

Actual needs in the next 30 years

Can be doneWITHOUT TOLLS

The Engineer SaysTraffic counts can’t even remotely justify Trans-Texas Corridor

The Financial Analyst SaysTolling will only pay a tiny fraction of the cost for decades

The Concerned TexanWorries about steep tolls on existing Interstates to pay for it

Trans-Texas

Corridor