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Return to Home Page. May 30, 2013 Slides & Discussion of Wind, Solar and Water Power Facilities from Seattle to Minneapolis Climate change from IPCC Reports: Beginning overview of IPCC reports Kyoto, Copenhagen, Russia ’ s & America ’ s Role, IPCC Reports etc. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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May 30, 2013May 30, 2013
Slides & Discussion of Wind, Solar and WaterSlides & Discussion of Wind, Solar and WaterPower Facilities from Seattle to MinneapolisPower Facilities from Seattle to Minneapolis
Climate change from IPCC Reports:Climate change from IPCC Reports:BeginningBeginning overview of IPCC reports overview of IPCC reports
Kyoto, Copenhagen,Kyoto, Copenhagen,RussiaRussia’’s & Americas & America’’s Role, s Role,
IPCC Reports etc.IPCC Reports etc.
Was it Decision time in Copenhagen?
Global Climate ChangeGlobal Climate Change• Global WarmingGlobal Warming
– Currently within 1ºC of highest Temp. in 125,000 yearsCurrently within 1ºC of highest Temp. in 125,000 years– forcedforced versus versus unforcedunforced fluctuations fluctuations– Radiatively activeRadiatively active gases gases;;
• Carbon dioxide (COCarbon dioxide (CO22))• Methane (CHMethane (CH44))• Nitrous oxide (NNitrous oxide (N22O)O)• Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs)Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs)• HH22O vapor O vapor
IPCC - WGI
Attribution
• Asks whether observed changes are consistent with
expected responses to forcings inconsistent with alternative
explanations
Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely (>90% certainty) due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations
TS-23
Anthro+ Nat forcing
IPCC - WGI
Source: Thompson et al. 2008.
ENSO = El Nino/Southern Oscillation
COWL= cold ocean, warm land
IPCC - WGI
Source: Thompson et al., 2008.
IPCC - WGI Source: Thompson e tal., 2008.
Observed Vs. modeled temperature rise since 1860
IPCC
Observed vs. modeled temperature riseObserved vs. modeled temperature rise since 1860since 1860
Computer Model Comparison of Anthropogenic and Natural Forcing (red) vs. Only Natural Forcing (blue)
Figure 10.31
IPCC - WGI
Understanding and Attributing Climate Change
Anthropogenic warming is likely discernible on all inhabited continents
Observed
Expected for all forcings
Natural forcing only
1000Years
of CO2 and
Temperatures
Figure 10.29
Fig. 10.28 Global temperature trends, 1880-2003Annual & five-year means, the 0 baseline represents the 1951-1980 global average - which is 14ºC (52.2ºF).
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC) Working Group I
Temperature trends
Temperature AnomaliesFigure 10.30
10,000 Years of Greenhouse
Gases
Figure 10.32
Figure 10.34
What’s in the pipeline and what could comeWarming will increase if GHG increase. If GHG were kept fixed at current levels, a committed 0.6°C of further warming would be expected by 2100. More warming would accompany more emission.
1.8oC = 3.2oF
2.8oC = 5.0oF
3.4oC = 6.1oF
CO2 Eq
850
600
4000.6oC = 1.0oF
Surface Temperature Projections
Figure 10.35
Changing winds, temperatures Changing winds, temperatures and storm tracksand storm tracks
• Anthropogenic forcing Anthropogenic forcing has has likelylikely contributed contributed to circulation changes to circulation changes (storm tracks, winds (storm tracks, winds and temperature and temperature patterns)patterns)
• Warmer, wetter Warmer, wetter winters in Norway; winters in Norway; drier in Spain (and drier in Spain (and North Africa)North Africa)
Source: IPCC 2007, Working Group 1, AR4 (Assessment Report 4).Source: IPCC 2007, Working Group 1, AR4 (Assessment Report 4).
A1B is a typical “business as usual” (2090-2099) scenario: Global mean warming 2.8oC;
Much of land area warms by ~3.5oCArctic warms by ~7oC; would be less for less emission
Projections of Future Changes in Climate
New in AR4: Drying in much of the subtropics, more rain in higher latitudes, continuing the broad pattern of rainfall changes already observed.
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