RESPONSE OF CIRCULATION INDEXES IN THE LOWER...

RESPONSE OF CIRCULATION INDEXES IN THE LOWER

ATMOSPHERE OF NORTHERN HEMISPHERE

TO SOLAR CYCLE

Anna Kukoleva1, Nina Kononova2, Alexei Krivolutsky1

1Central Aerological Observatory, Dolgoprudny, Moscow Region, Russia

2Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences,Moscow, Russia

kuan-2012@yandex.ru, ninakononova@yandex.ru

Variability of the Sun and Its Terrestrial Impact (VarSITI) Closing Symposium.

Sofia, 10-14 June 2019, Bulgaria

ABSTRACT

• The results of the statistical analysis of the relationship of

circulation characteristics in the lower atmosphere of the

Northern hemisphere with the cycle of Solar activity are

presented.

• Data (1899-2016): 1) the duration of different types of

elementary circulation mechanism, ECM – Dzerdzeevskii

classification;

2) time series of Wolf numbers.

• Applied statistical analysis the method of "superimposed

epochs", the elements of correlation and spectral analysis.

• Results:

– the increase of solar activity leads to the increase in the

duration of meridional circulation forms;

– Seasonal differences in the effect of the Sun on the lower

atmosphere were also found.

2

3

1898 - 1971

Boris Dzerdzeevsky

• 1 group – zonal type (Z anticyclone

at the North pole blocking processes

are absent), near-polar ring of

cyclones (ECM 1 и 2);

• 2 group – Disturbance of Zonal flow

(DZ), anticyclone at the pole and one

blocking process in any sector (ECM

3-7 types);

Classification of circulation mechanisms of the

Northern hemisphere by B. L. Dzerdzeevsky*)

*)classification is developed on the basis of maps of

sea level pressure and temperature, maps of baric

topography AT-500

5

3 group – Meridional Northern type

(MN): anticyclone in the polar region

and 2-4 blocking processes and

outputs of southern cyclones. Inter-

latitudinal exchange of air masses

(ECM of 8-12 types prevails);

4 group – Meridional Southern type

(MS): above the pole – cyclone, the

output of southern cyclones in 3-4

sectors of the hemisphere (ECM 13

type).

6

I. The effect of Solar Activity Cycle (W) on the duration of

ECM obtained by the Method of Superimposed Epochs (MSE)

Zonal DZ MN МS

The average duration of

ECM, days in year 25,4 88,2 197,4 48,6

Standard deviation of the

mean(σ), days 1,5 3,4 3,2 4,6

The correlation coefficient

obtained by MSE with

key-days near Solar max

-0,53

-0,62

0,15

-0,3

Direct correlation between

W and ECM, 1899-2016 0,13 -0,06 -0,13 0,1

MSE: Z and DZ groups (total by types within the group)

7

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4

"0" - мах of Solar Activity Cycle

Years in SAC

+-σ

Zonal

Dist. Zonal Z

DZ

1.1. Deviation from the average long-term value of the duration at

the year ECM groups in Solar Activity Cycle,

Method of Superimposed Epochs

days

8

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

-4 -2 0 2 4

Meridional Northern, "0"- max

Years in SAC

+σ

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

-4 -2 0 2 4

Meridional Southern , "0" - мах

+σ

positive correlation

with Solar Activity

Negative correlation

with Solar Activity

5-8%

Correlation by MSE: R = -0,90 (MN and MS);

direct correlation

(1800-2008 years): R* = -0,35. 9

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

-6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6

"0" – max SAC

Years in SAC

Meridional Northern

Meridional Southern

Deviation from the average long-term value of the duration of

ECM groups in SAC, Method of Superimposed Epochs

for MN and MS groups

1.2. Seasonal effects

10

According to [1] certain types of circulation occur only in certain seasons.

Seasonal circulation groups:

11

Winter Circulation types (duration in year, days)

0

5

10

15

20

-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4

7аз

"0"-- MAX of SAC years in SAC

+ 2σ

Disturbance Zonal flow group - Negative relation with solar activity.

5б – 23%

5г – 15%

7бз – 39%

7фз – 28%

12

positive correlation for 11а and 11б with SAС

WINTER,

Meridional Northern groupe -

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3

11а

11б

11в

"0"- MAX of SAC

years in SAC

+2σ

+2σ

11а – 12%, 11б – 47%, 11в - 6%

The result is insignificant

13

0

5

10

15

20

25

-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4

13з

13з

"0"- MAX of SCA

years in SAC

+-σ

WINTER, Meridional Southern type

SUMMER

14

The result is insignificant

Disturbance of zonal flow type,

Meridional Southern type,

Zonal type,

+σ

+σ

4б - positive relationship with SAC

15

SUMMER

Disturbance of Zonal

flow group

«0» - MAX

+2σ

23% from average value

16

SUMMER 4б - positive relationship with SAC

Meridional Northern group

9-10% from average value

days

Years in SAC

“0” – MIN

17

SPRING-AUTUMN Meridional Northern group

Sum of MN

group

+2σ

1-4%

8%

EARLY SPRING - EARLY WINTER

18

Zonal group

1а, 1б - + 32%

Disturbance of zonal flow (DZ) group 0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

3,5

4,0

4,5

5,0

-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4

4а

5в

"0" - MIN

+2σ

DZ group

Zonal group

+2σ

4а – (-58)%,

5в – (+38)%

Meridional Northern group:

Significant negative relationship with Solar Activity

19

EARLY SPRING - EARLY WINTER

Summury of MN

group:

+2σ

(16-40)% 20%

• Time series of deviations from the average long-term

value of the duration of the total circulation groups (Z,

DZ, MN and MS) and also some separate types of

circulation were assumed.

• The ratio (%) of the intensity of individual harmonics of

decomposition to the dispersion value in was calculated.

Thus, these values indicate the contribution of individual

harmonics to the overall variability of the series.

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II. Circulation group duration Fourier analysis

(1899-2016)

21

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

59,0

23,0

14,8

10,7

8,4

6,9

5,9

5,1

4,5

4,1

3,7

3,4

3,1

2,9

2,7

2,5

2,4

2,2

2,1

2,0

Zonal group %

years

0

2

4

6

8

59,0

23,0

14,0

10,0

8,4

7,0

6,0

5,1

4,5

4,0

3,7

3,4

3,1

2,9

2,7

2,5

2,4

2,2

2,1

2,0

Disturbance of zonal flow group

%

Fourier analysis results for common circulation group duration

(Time series 1899-2016)

years

Contribution of harmonics with a period of 10-11 years does not exceed 3%

The maximum intensity of a harmonic with a period of about 60 years (7-22%)

MS group

years

years

22

0

2

4

6

8

10

39,0

23,0

16,0

13,0

10,0

9,0

7,9

7,0

6,2

5,6

5,1

4,7

4,4

4,0

3,8

3,6

3,4

3,2

3,0

2,9

2,7

2,6

2,5

2,4

2,3

2,2

2,2

2,1

2,0

11б , МN (winter)

39

29

23

19

16

14

13

11

0

5

10

15

20

25

58,5

23,4

14,6

10,6

8,4

6,9

5,9

5,1

4,5

4,0

3,7

3,3

3,1

2,9

2,7

2,5

2,3

2,2

2,1

2,0

11в, МN (winter) 58,50

39,00

29,25

23,40

19,50

16,71

14,63

0

5

10

15

20

25

29,0

19,0

14,0

11,0

9,8

8,4

7,4

6,6

6,0

5,4

5,0

4,5

4,2

3,9

3,7

3,5

3,3

3,1

2,9

2,8

2,7

2,6

2,5

2,4

2,3

2,2

2,1

2,0

1,9

10б, МN (summer) 29

23 19 16 14 13 11 10 9,8 9 8,4 7,9 7,4 7

For some types of

MN group in

winter, the intensity

of harmonics with

T=11 and T=22

years increases to

10-20%

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CONCLUSIONS

1. Seasonal differences in the relationship between Solar Activity and circulation types were found: solar activity increases the duration of meridional forms of circulation (MN) at winter and summer, and reduce one at the early-winter. 2. A negative relationship for Disturbance of zonal flow (DZ) group in winter was found also. During the transitional synoptic seasons (spring-autumn, early-winter) the dependence becomes more complicated.

3. The correlation coefficient between the superimposed

MS and MN series is R = -0.90 in Solar Cycle . 4. 60-year cycle of the duration of the elementary circulation period was found.

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REFERENCES

• Kononova N.K. CLASSIFICATION OF CIRCULATION MECHANISMS OF

NORTHERN HEMISPHERE BY B.L. DZERDZEEVSKII.The Russian

academy of sciences. Institute of geography., 2009. 372 P.

http://www.wdcb.ru/stp/data/SPE/

• IZMIRAN, http://www.izmiran.ru/services/saf/archive/

• S. V. Veretenenko, M. G. Ogurtsov. 60-Year Cycle in the Earth’s Climate and

Dynamics of Correlation Links between Solar Activity and Circulation of the

Lower Atmosphere Geomagnetism and Aeronomy, 2018, Vol. 58, No. 7, pp.

973–981. © Pleiades Publishing, Ltd., 2018/

• Kukoleva A.A., N.K. Kononova, A.A. Krivolutskii, Manifestation of the Solar

Cycle in the Circulation Characteristics of the Lower Atmosphere in the

Northern Hemisphere / Geomagnetism and Aeronomy, 2018, Vol. 58, No. 6,

pp. 775–783. 2018.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION!

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