Remarks of Ron Binz Principal, Public Policy Consulting November 9, 2012 Denver

Remarks of Ron Binz

Principal, Public Policy ConsultingNovember 9, 2012 • Denver

Public Policy Consulting

www.rbinz.com

Five Reasons To Be Bullish Long-term on Renewable Energy

• Compliance with climate goals• Lower costs for wind and solar• Acceptance of renewables by utilities and

consumers• Smart grid interplay• Changing utility business models

Renewable Electricity Futures Study (REF)

Exploration of High-PenetrationRenewable Electricity Futures

Available at NREL.gov

NREL’s REF Findings

• Renewable electricity generation is more than adequate to supply 80% of total U.S. electricity generation in 2050 while meeting electricity demand on an hourly basis in every region of the country.

• Increased electric system flexibility can come from a portfolio of supply- and demand-side options, like flexible conventional generation, grid storage, new transmission, more responsive loads, and changes in power system operations.

• The are multiple paths using renewables that result in deep reductions in electric sector greenhouse gas emissions and water use.

• The direct incremental cost with high renewable generation is comparable to costs of other clean energy scenarios.

Helpful fact:

The US summer peak electrical use is around 800 GW.

Baseline Case

REF ITI Case

With incentives

No incentives

CO2 costs

•Unadjusted 2010 cost estimates were used for consistency

•Costs for wind and photovoltaics have fallen sharply in last two years (faster than these 2010 estimates)

•Cost of nuclear power has risen post-Fukushima (more than these 2010 estimates)

NREL’s estimate of continued cost reductions for wind energy

DOE’s Sunshot Program

FloridaColorado New Jersey GermanyArizona

Public Policy Consulting15

Solar Electric Density

• Use: 100 MW(ac)/mile2

• Colorado Peak Integrated Demand: 11GW

• Result: 110 mile2 required land area

110 mi2

But what if 11 GW of solar were spread around the state in 100 MW installations?

It might look like this...

Question: How do we explain the variations in outcomes•between NJ and GA •between the US and Germany

Answer: Policy; regulation; industry structure; incentives.

A Recent Hart Associates Poll

Compressed Air Energy Storage (CAES)

The Evolving Utility Business Model

• Multiple threats to business as usual

• Utilities must adapt in order to grow (survive)

• We need to change the regulatory incentives to

reward utilities for pursuing societal goals

• Regulation needs to produce greater firm efficiency

• Expect a new regulatory compact to emerge

Congratulations to the Alliance for 8+ years of leadership.

I look forward to your questions.

Thanks for the invitation.

Remarks of Ron Binz Principal, Public Policy Consulting November 9, 2012 Denver

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