View
223
Download
0
Category
Preview:
Citation preview
1 Disclaimer: http://www.religareonline.com/research/Disclaimer/
Religare Morning Digest
July 16, 2018
Nifty Outlook
VWAP (Expiry till date) Max OI (Call) Max OI (Put)
NIFTY 10840 11000 10600
Markets ended flat in a dull session, taking a breather after recent surge. Nifty opened with an uptick however weak macroeconomic data i.e. rise in CPI inflation and decline in IIP data triggered positive taking across the board mainly in cash segment. Mostly sectoral indices traded in line with the benchmark index and ended flat.
We’re bullish on Nifty and expect the prevailing up move to extend further however continuous fall in broader market causing maximum pain to the participants. We advise maintaining a mix of long and short positions on stock specific front to sail through this trouble time. On sectoral front, PSU banks look weakest to us while private banks, IT and FMCG stocks should be preferred for long trades.
Sectors to watch
Sector Name Outlook
AUTO STABLE
IT STABLE
FMCG STABLE
News Religare Super Ideas**
FII & DII Cash Segment (Rs. in Cr.)
Category Amt. MTD FYTD
FII** -743 -4358 -37592
DII** 366 3856 42180
Derivative Ideas **
The construction arm of L&T has won orders worth Rs 3,000cr from the Andhra Pradesh Capital Region Development Authority for the engineering, procurement and construction of HoD office buildings at Amaravati.
R. S. Software India ended higher by 20% after the company disclosed that it was declared L1 bidder in reverse online auction by National Payments Corp. of India to develop and operate platform for EFRM.
Share price of PVR & Inox Leisure fell sharply after news that multiplexes in Maharashtra are likely to allow people to carry their own food items inside halls. This is expected to be effective from August 2018. Foods and beverages segment is generally a high margin business for multiplexes and that contributes 35-40% to industry EBITDA.
**Provisional data as on 12th July 2018
Scrip Buy/Sell CMP Initiation
Range SL* Target
HAVELLS BUY 560.20 555-560 540 590
ICICIBANK BUY
260PE 3.30 3-3.50 1 8
Instrument B/S Lot INITIATION
RANGE SL TARGET
DISHTV BUY
72.50
CE
8000 2.50-2.60 1.70 5
**Please note that the given technical and derivative recommendations are
"valid for taking position" only on recommended date and in the given range.
*Please note - Stoploss is on closing basis for delivery recommendation and
intraday basis for futures recommendation.
Trade Stats
NO OF CON-
TRACTS
TURNOVER IN CR
IDXFUTS 235605 21970
IDXOPT 14949050 1561548
STKFUTS 833773 58961
**As on 12th July 2018
2 Disclaimer: http://www.religareonline.com/research/Disclaimer/
Religare Morning Digest
July 16, 2018
Investment Pick - Kajaria Ceramics Ltd.
Kajaria Ceramics Ltd’s (KCL) Q4FY18 consolidated revenue growth of 4.1% YoY was more or less in line with our estimates, however, the company disappointed on the profit front. EBITDA de-grew by 8.2% with a 214bps YoY contraction in EBITDA margins.
Notwithstanding 1-2 quarters of muted growth, we expect improved performance from KCL going ahead. Healthy industry outlook and company’s continued focus on capacity additions and enhanced product offerings should drive its revenue and profitability. We maintain Buy on the stock with revised target price of Rs 635.
Scrip CMP Target Duration Recommendation Price
Kajaria Ceramics Ltd. 459.9 635 9-12 Months 518
DISHTV shed around 5% in open interest as short covering was seen in it in previous session. Current
chart pattern also indicates further surge in its price. We suggest buying DISHTV call options as per
below levels.
Strategy:- Buy DISHTV 72.50CE between 2.50-2.60,
Stoploss – 1.70, Target - 5 for 4-6 trading sessions.
Derivative Ideas Religare Super Ideas Religare Super Ideas Religare Super Ideas
Havells India Limited (HAVELLS) ICICI Bank Limited (ICICIBANK)
After a strong up move from 520 to 580 levels, HAVELLS has retraced marginally of late and has reached closer to its price support zone around 555,
offering fresh buying opportunity. We feel traders shouldn’t miss this chance and accumulate fresh long in the given range.
After sharp plunge from its trading range, ICICIBANK has been hovering in a range for past two weeks on chart, offering fresh shorting opportunity. We
therefore advise traders to create fresh short position through put option.
3 Disclaimer: http://www.religareonline.com/research/Disclaimer/
Religare Morning Digest
July 16, 2018
Religare Investment Calls
Name of the Company Reco Date Reco Price Target Price Upside % Previous day Closing Price
CRISIL 01-Aug-17 1,858 2,419 30.2% 1,768.1
LIC Housing Finance 09-Aug-17 681 748 9.8% 501.0
Tata Communications 18-Sept-17 708 822 16.1% 601.2
Force Motors 25-Jan-18 3,250 4,197 29.1% 2,422.7
Mold-Tek Packaging 8-Feb-18 346 379 9.5% 301.7
Avanti Feeds 12-Feb-18 835 967 19.0% 445.3
Talwalkars Better Value Fitness 12-Feb-18 304 350 15.1% 45.5
NRB Bearings 14-Feb-18 165 198 20.0% 170.1
Time Technoplast 23-Feb-18 185 249 34.6% 136.1
Navneet Education 17-May-18 139 188 35.3% 121.7
Swaraj Engines Ltd 23-May-18 1,974 2,426 22.9% 1,844.7
Prabhat Dairy Ltd. 24-May-18 176 230 30.6% 149.4
Srikalahasthi Pipes Ltd 24-May-18 299 379 26.9% 238.3
Nilkamal Ltd. 28-May-18 1,662 2,231 31.2% 1,627.9
Capacite Infraprojects Ltd. 28-May-18 274 371 35.4% 273.2
Castrol India Ltd 29-May-18 176 220 24.8% 159.2
Sutlej Textiles 31-May-18 61 75 24% 54.3
Symphony Ltd. 04-Jun-18 1,454 1,965 35.1% 1,383.5
Minda Corporation 05-Jun-18 160 213 33.1% 156.7
Bharat Electronics Ltd. 06-Jun-18 113 156 38.1% 103.8
S Chand & Company 08-Jun-18 365 562 54.0% 359.6
The Byke Hospitality 08-Jun-18 170 201 18.2% 131.0
Supreme Industries Ltd. 08-Jun-18 1,244 1,473 18.4% 1,182.5
Century Plyboards 11-Jun-18 254 343 35.0% 230.0
APL Apollo Tubes 11-Jun-18 1,789 2,289 28.0% 1,703.4
Fiem Industries 12-Jun-18 822 1,077 31.0% 774.4
SML Isuzu 13-Jun-18 814 1,028 26.3% 795.0
Asian Granito India Ltd. 14-Jun-18 358 511 42.7% 302.4
Wonderla Holidays 15-Jun-18 340 377 10.8% 325.7
Eicher Motors Ltd 15-Jun-18 29,491 33,592 13.9% 27,529.2
Kajaria Ceramics Ltd. 20-Jun-18 518 635 22.7% 459.9
4 Disclaimer: http://www.religareonline.com/research/Disclaimer/
Religare Morning Digest
July 16, 2018
Corporate Action Calendar — July 2018 (Cash Dividend) Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
15 16
Tata Elxsi Ltd
Kirloskar Pneu-matic Co Ltd
Automobile Corp of Goa Ltd
Bimetal Bearings Ltd
Thirumalai Chemi-cals Ltd
Oriental Hotels Ltd
Jyothy Laborato-ries Ltd
Tata Chemicals Ltd
Dr Reddy's Labor-atories Ltd
Info Edge India Ltd
17
Syngene International Ltd
Agro Tech Foods Ltd
Shriram City Union Finance Ltd
Rane Madras Ltd
Everest Industries Ltd
NOCIL Ltd
Triton Valves Ltd
Vinati Organics Ltd
JK Cement Ltd
Geojit Financial Services Ltd
GE T&D India Ltd
ADC India Communications Ltd
Ponni Sugars Erode Ltd
Dixon Technologies India Ltd
Empire Industries Ltd/India
Alfred Herbert India Ltd
Tata Consultancy Services Ltd
18
IndusInd Bank Ltd
Cholamandalam Investment and Finance Co Ltd
Edelweiss Financial Services Ltd
Shriram Transport Finance Co Ltd
Phillips Carbon Black Ltd
PTL Enterprises Ltd
Apollo Tyres Ltd
Novartis India Ltd
Solar Industries India Ltd
Alembic Pharmaceuticals Ltd
Rolcon Engineering Co Ltd
Zydus Wellness Ltd
National Peroxide Ltd
Control Print Ltd
Kaira CAN Co Ltd
Super Sales India Ltd
Shardul Securities Ltd
Grindwell Norton Ltd
19
Bharti Infratel Ltd
Coromandel International Ltd
Persistent Systems Ltd
Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services Ltd
Biocon Ltd
Mahindra Lifespace Developers Ltd
Shoppers Stop Ltd
Housing Development Finance Corp Ltd
RPG Life Sciences Ltd
Astec Lifesciences Ltd
PNB Housing Finance Ltd
Apcotex Industries Ltd
SQS India BFSI Ltd
Transcorp International Ltd
Saregama India Ltd
Kalyani Forge Ltd
Bombay Dyeing & Manufacturing Co Ltd
Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals Ltd
Astra Microwave Products Ltd
Kitex Garments Ltd
Gujarat Ambuja Exports Ltd
Johnson Controls-Hitachi Air Conditioning India Ltd
MAC Charles India Ltd
Sudarshan Chemical Industries
Goodricke Group Ltd
Excel Crop Care Ltd
DFM Foods Ltd
Zuari Global Ltd
Meghmani Organics Ltd
Capri Global Capital Ltd
WABCO India Ltd
Piramal Enterprises Ltd
Minda Corp Ltd
Avantel Ltd
Unichem Laboratories Ltd
CMI FPE Ltd
20
GIC Housing Finance Ltd
DCM Shriram Ltd
Shree Cement Ltd
Century Textiles & Industries Ltd
Blue Dart Express Ltd
Ingersoll Rand India Ltd
KEC International Ltd
Coral India Finance & Housing Ltd
Alkyl Amines Chemicals
TTK Prestige Ltd
Redington India Ltd
Manugraph India Ltd
Kothari Petrochemicals
KCP Ltd
Apollo Sindoori Hotels Ltd
NLC India Ltd
21
5 Disclaimer: http://www.religareonline.com/research/Disclaimer/
Religare Morning Digest
July 16, 2018
Corporate Action Calendar — July 2018 (Acquisition)
Date Target Company Acquirer Company
07/16/2018
07/16/2018
07/16/2018
07/16/2018
07/19/2018
Parnami Credits Ltd
SCM Logfocus India Ltd
Milgrey Finance & Investments Ltd
Rex Polyextrusion Pvt Ltd
RAK Paints Ltd
Private Investor
Transport Corp of India Ltd
Private Investor
Astral Polytechnik Ltd
Kansai Nerolac Paints Ltd
Corporate Action Calendar — July 2018 (Equity Offering)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat 15 16
17
18
Ambani Organics Ltd
19
20
21
Corporate Action Calendar — July 2018 (Stock Dividend)
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
15 16
17
18
MM Forgings Ltd
19
KKV Agro Powers Ltd
20
21
Economic Calendar — July 2018
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat 15 16
Wholesale Prices YoY
17
18
19
20
21
6 Disclaimer: http://www.religareonline.com/research/Disclaimer/
Religare Morning Digest
July 16, 2018
Current Portfolio and Performance Summary as on 13th July’18
Stock Sector Entry Date Weight Reco price (`) CMP (`)
Amara Raja Batteries Auto Mar 22, 2017 10.5% 868 805
RBL Bank Financial Services July 11, 2017 10.7% 532 571
Muthoot Finance Financial Services July 26, 2017 8.5% 482 393
Va Tech Wabag Infrastructure August 16, 2017 6.0% 636 371
Can Fin Homes Financial Services September 19, 2017 7.0% 572 330
CARE Financial Services September 20, 2017 9.4% 1,493 1,242
Godfrey Phillips India Consumer Goods January 5, 2018 7.9% 1,022 730
CCL Products Beverages January 9, 2018 10.3% 306 282
Security and Intelli-gence Services (India)
Consumer Services Jul 9, 2018 9.8% 1,163 1,144
UltraTech Cement Cement Jul 12, 2018 12.1% 3,975 3,964
Cash 7.8%
Total 100%
7 Disclaimer: http://www.religareonline.com/research/Disclaimer/
Religare Morning Digest
July 16, 2018
Historical Performance as on 13th July’18
Performance Matrix 3-Month 6-Month 1-Year Since Inception
Religare Alpha -5.7% -12.0% -4.5% 31.4%
Nifty 5.4% 3.2% 11.4% 39.8%
Outperformance -11.1% -15.1% -15.9% -8.4%
850
950
1,050
1,150
1,250
1,350
1,450
1,550
10
/13
/20
14
11
/13
/20
14
12
/13
/20
14
1/1
3/20
15
2/1
3/20
15
3/1
3/20
15
4/1
3/20
15
5/1
3/20
15
6/1
3/20
15
7/1
3/20
15
8/1
3/20
15
9/1
3/20
15
10
/13
/20
15
11
/13
/20
15
12
/13
/20
15
1/1
3/20
16
2/1
3/20
16
3/1
3/20
16
4/1
3/20
16
5/1
3/20
16
6/1
3/20
16
7/1
3/20
16
8/1
3/20
16
9/1
3/20
16
10
/13
/20
16
11
/13
/20
16
12
/13
/20
16
1/1
3/20
17
2/1
3/20
17
3/1
3/20
17
4/1
3/20
17
5/1
3/20
17
6/1
3/20
17
7/1
3/20
17
8/1
3/20
17
9/1
3/20
17
10
/13
/20
17
11
/13
/20
17
12
/13
/20
17
1/1
3/20
18
2/1
3/20
18
3/1
3/20
18
4/1
3/20
18
5/1
3/20
18
6/1
3/20
18
7/1
3/20
18
Performance Comparison
Religare Alpha Nifty
8 Disclaimer: http://www.religareonline.com/research/Disclaimer/
Religare Morning Digest
July 16, 2018
Research Product Basket
For cash market trading
Call / Product Call Frequency No. of calls Avg open call duration % funds allocated
Intraday Calls Intraday 2 - 3 < 1 day 25%
Live / RMD Calls Daily 3 - 4 3 - 4 days 30%
Master Pick Weekly 1 1 month 15%
Religare Alpha Opportunity NA 2 - 3 months 20%
Cash NA 10%
For 1L margin*
Total Per Call
25,000 8,000
30,000 4,000
15,000 5,000
20,000 As per weightage
10,000
Intraday Calls These calls are flashed live on Ms Lync and ODIN with the purpose of squaring off positions on the same day. As a policy, we restrict our
intraday cash market calls to less than 4 calls a day. Hence, funds should be allocated accordingly to have provision to trade in all calls.
Live / RMD Calls 2 super ideas are flashed in RMD daily with a view of 3-4 days. Additionally as per market opportunity, we flash live calls during the day (including BTST calls). 3-4 such calls are made on a daily basis which might be open for 3-4 days. Funds should be allocated keeping in mind that
there will be 7-8 such open calls daily.
Master Pick This is our weekly recommendation shortlisted on the basis of techno-funda analysis. 15% of funds is recommended to be allocated for Master Pick considering that there will be 3 open calls. The average open duration for this call will be 1 month.
Religare Alpha This is a portfolio of 8-10 stocks which are held with a view of 2-3 months. It is recommended to allocate 20% of funds for building this portfolio which will provide stability to the overall trading portfolio.
Cash 10% surplus cash in the portfolio should be kept for the purposes of allocating it to opportunities as and when they arrive.
For derivative market trading
Call / Product Call Frequency No. of calls Avg open call duration % funds allocated
Derivative Ideas Daily 1 - 2 1 - 3 days 40%
Live calls Intraday / Daily 1 - 2 3 - 4 days 50%
Cash NA 10%
For 1L margin*
Total Per Call
40,000 40,000
50,000 50,000
10,000
Derivative Ideas 1 derivative idea is shared in RMD daily. It can be a plain vanilla F&O buy/sell call or an option strategy. Funds should be allocated assuming 2
such calls will be open at any time. These calls are open for 3-4 days on an average.
Live Calls These calls are flashed on MS Lync and ODIN during live market hours. These calls can be intraday or with a view of 2-3 days. Funds should be
allocated considering 2 such calls will be open at any time. 3/4 times, these calls will be on Nifty / Bank Nifty only.
Cash It is recommended to hold 10% cash to capitalize on any opportunity that may arise in markets.
For every client, the advisor must allocate a specific proportion of funds for trading and investing depending on the risk taking ability and willingness of the client
and their investment goals.
The below mentioned product basket tries to address the way to deal with the trading portfolio (cash/derivative) for optimum effectiveness of research calls.
It is recommended to divide your trading funds for various types of calls and not invest the entire amount for 1 or 2 calls only.
9 Disclaimer: http://www.religareonline.com/research/Disclaimer/
Religare Morning Digest
July 16, 2018
Hitesh Agrawal hitesh.agrawal@religare.com
Ajit Mishra ajit.mishra@religare.com
Ashish Bagai ashish.bagai@religare.com
Manoj M Vayalar manoj.vayalar@religare.com
Mehernosh Khurshed Panthaki mehernosh.panthaki@religare.com
Nirvi Ashar nirvi.ashar@religare.com
Rohit Khatri rohit.khatri@religare.com
Suhanee Shome suhanee.shome@religare.com
Team Members
10 Disclaimer: http://www.religareonline.com/research/Disclaimer/
Religare Morning Digest
July 16, 2018
Before you use this research report , please ensure to go through the disclosure inter-alia as required under Securities and Exchange Board of India (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014 and Research Disclaimer at the following link : http://old.religareonline.com/research/Disclaimer/Disclaimer_RSL.html
Specific analyst(s) specific disclosure(s) inter-alia as required under Securities and Exchange Board of India (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014 is/are as under:
Statements on ownership and material conflicts of interest , compensation– Research Analyst (RA)
[Please note that only in case of multiple RAs, if in the event answers differ inter-se between the RAs, then RA specific answer with respect to questions under F (a) to F(j) below , are given separately]
Nature of Interest ( if answer to F (a) above is Yes : ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
Name(s) with Signature(s) of RA(s).
[Please note that only in case of multiple RAs and if the answers differ inter-se between the RAs, then RA specific answer with respect to questions under F (a) to F(j) above , are given below]
Copyright in this document vests exclusively with RBL. This information should not be reproduced or redistributed or passed on directly or indirectly in any form to any
other person or published, copied, in whole or in part, for any purpose, without prior written permission from RBL. We do not guarantee the integrity of any emails or attached files and are not responsible for any changes made to them by any other person.
S. No. Statement Answer
Yes No
I/we or any of my/our relative has any financial interest in the subject company? [If answer is yes, nature of Interest is given below this table] No
I/we or any of my/our relatives, have actual/beneficial ownership of one per cent. or more securities of the subject company, at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the research report or date of the public appearance?
No
I/we or any of my/our relative, has any other material conflict of interest at the time of publication of the research report or at the time of public appearance?
No
I/we have received any compensation from the subject company in the past twelve months? No
I/we have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company in the past twelve months? No
I/we have received any compensation for brokerage services from the subject company in the past twelve months? No
I/we have received any compensation for products or services other than brokerage services from the subject company in the past twelve months? No
I/we have received any compensation or other benefits from the subject company or third party in connection with the research report? No
I/we have served as an officer, director or employee of the subject company? No
I/we have been engaged in market making activity for the subject company? No
SS..No. Name(s) of RA.
Signtures of RA
Serial Question of question which the signing RA needs to make a separate declaration / answer
Yes No.
Recommended