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What is our objective and why?• What tools do we have available?– Reliable outage information– Measurements (statistics)• How can we reach the objectives?– Unit‐level benchmarking– Component‐level benchmarking
Citation preview
ReliabilityAnalysisofPowerPlantUnitOutageProblems
G.MichaelCurleyPresident
GenerationConsultingServices,LLC
Copyright2013byGenerationConsultingServices,LLC.Allrightsreserved.
Agenda
Whatisourobjectiveandwhy? Whattoolsdowehaveavailable?
Reliableoutageinformation Measurements(statistics)
Howcanwereachtheobjectives? Unitlevelbenchmarking Componentlevelbenchmarking
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WhatisOurObjectiveandWhy?
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Definition Reliability isthecharacteristicsofanitemexpressedasaprobabilitythatitwillperformitsrequiredfunctionsunderspecifiedconditionsforaspecifiedperiodoftime.
Maintainability isthecharacteristicsofdesignandinstallationexpressedastheprobabilitythatanitemwillberetainedinorrestoredtoaspecifiedconditionwithinaspecifiedperiodoftimewhenmaintenanceisperformedinaccordancewithprescribedproceduresandresources.
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Definition
Availability isthecharacteristicofanitemexpressedasaprobabilitythatitwillbeoperationalatarandomlyselectedfutureinstantintime.
Reliability Maintainability
Availability
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GamePlan
Tosimplyfindwaysthateitheroutagefrequency,outageduration,orboth,canbereducedandkeptatalevelconsistentwithminimumgenerationcostsandloadmanagementobjectives.
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WhatToolsDoWeHaveAvailable?
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ReliabilityDatabases Severaldatabasestochoosefrom:
GeneratingAvailabilityDataSystem(GADS) NERC OperationalReliabilityAnalysisProgram(ORAP)StrategicPowerSystems,Inc.
KraftwerkInformationSSYstem(KISSY) VGBofEssen,Germany
PowerReactorInformationSystem(PRIS)InternationalAtomicEnergyAgency(IAEA) ofAustria
CanadianElectricityAssociation(CEA) Ottawa,Canada
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WhatisGADS? GeneratingAvailabilityDataSystem(GADS)
OffshootoftheEdisonElectricInstitutedatabaseintroducedin1960sbytheEEIPrimeMoversCommittee
GADSwasintroducedtotheindustryin1982. Databaseforcollectingandanalyzingpowerplant
equipmentfailures Benchmarking Settingrealisticgeneratingunitgoals Improvingunitoutputandreliability
Foundationfordeterminingthereliabilityofthebulkpowersystemasrelatedtogeneratingunits
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WhyMandatoryGADS? WhenNERCbecametheElectricReliabilityOrganization
(ERO)undertheEnergyPolicyActof2005(Section215),itwasgiventhemandatetomonitorthereliabilityofthebulkpowersystem: Transmission Generatingfacilities Notdistributionsystems
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WhyMandatoryGADS? Historically
Reliabilityassessmentreportsandmodeling Lossofloadexpectationstudiesandmodeling
NewChallenges Astheresourcemixchanges,NERCanditsstakeholderswillneedtounderstandhowthechangesinresourceperformancetranslatesintoPlanningReserveMargins.
UnderstandingtheperformanceofexistingandnewresourcetechnologiesisessentialtocomprehendingthereliabilityoftheprojectedbulkpowersysteminNorthAmerica.
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GeneratingUnitsReportingtoGADS
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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013*
5841 5952 6014 5650
70287445
*Projected2013Value
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GADSUnitsbyUnitType
Fossil25%
Nuclear2%
GT/Jet18%
Diesel3%
Hydro/PS41%
CombinedCycle9%
Other2%
GADS2012Data
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NewConstruction20042013
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
Fossil
Nuclear
GT/Jet
Diesel
Hydro/PS
CombinedCycle
Other
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208
34
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MWGeneratedGADS2012Data
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Fossil50%
Nuclear5%
GT/Jet2%
Diesel0%
Hydro/PS12%
CombinedCycle29%
Other2%
WhatDataDoesGADSCollect? Designdata
Identifythevariousunittypes SeparateunitsintogroupsbyMWsize,fuels,age,etc.
Eventdata Insightsintoequipmentproblems Essentialforevaluatedunitdesignssuchaspressurizedversesbalanceddraftfurnaces
PerformanceData Performancedataprovidesinformation,inasummarizedformat,pertainingtooverallunitoperationduringaparticularmonthinagivenyear.
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UnitState Active
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DetailsofreportingatGCSGADSWorkshop.Seehandout.
PrimaryCauseofEvent GADScollectsdetailsregardingthesystem,major
component,orpieceofequipmentprimarilyresponsibleforcausingtheoutageorderatingevent.
Primarydetailsarerequired;secondarydetailsareoptional.
Important detailsofeventoutagecauseconsistsof: System/Componentcausecodes(causecodes) CauseCodeAmplificationCode(ampcodes) EventContributionCode VerbalDescription
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BasisofGADSDatabase IEEE762camefromolderEdisonElectricInstitute(EEI)documentsdevelopedduringthe1970s.
IEEE762wasdevelopedandtestedin1982;revisedin1987,2006andreaffirmedfor10yearsin2010.
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GeneralOverview Unweighted(timebased) equationsusetime
Weighted(energyorcapacitybased) equationsbasedonMWsizeoftheunits
1,000MW 100MW
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IEEE762Indices Factors
DiscussionoftheMostCommonUsesIEEE762FactorsandWhyTheyAreImportanttothePowerIndustry
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EquivalentAvailabilityFactor(EAF)
ByDefinition: Thefractionofnetmaximumgenerationthatcouldbeprovidedafteralltypesofoutagesandderatings(includingseasonalderatings) aretakenintoaccount.
Measurespercentofmaximumgenerationavailable overtime
Notaffectedbyloadfollowing ThehighertheEAF,thebetter DeratesreduceEAFusingEquivalentDeratedHours
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TheEintheEquationName
WhenyouseeanEinthestatisticsname,itstandsforEquivalentsuchasEquivalentAvailabilityFactor(EAF)orEquivalentForcedOutageRate Demand(EFORd).
Thesestatisticscontainderatings aswellasfulloutages. DeratingsonlyappearinGADSfromeventrecords,not
performancerecords.Soitisimportanttoincludeallderatingsinyourreporting!
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WhatareEquivalentDeratedHrs.? Thisisamethodof
convertingderatingsintofulloutages.
TheproductoftheDeratedHoursandthesizeofreduction,dividedbyNMC.
100MWderatefor4hoursisthesamelossas400MWoutagefor1hour.
100MWx4hours=400MWx1hour
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ScheduledOutageFactor(SOF) ByDefinition:
Thepercentoftimeduringaspecificperiodthataunitisoutofserviceduetoeitherplannedormaintenanceoutages.
Outagesarescheduled. PO WellinAdvance MO Beyondthenextweekend
Ameasureoftheunitsunavailabilityduetoplannedormaintenanceoutages.
ThelowertheSOF,thebetter.
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NetCapacityFactor(NCF)
ByDefinition: Measurestheactualenergygenerated asafractionofthemaximumpossibleenergyitcouldhavegeneratedatmaximumoperatingcapacity.
Showshowmuch theunitwasusedovertheperiodoftime
Theenergyproducedmaybeoutsidetheoperatorscontrolduetodispatch.
ThehighertheNCF,themoretheunitwasusedtogeneratepower(movingtobaseload).
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NetOutputFactor(NOF)
ByDefinition: Measurestheoutputofageneratingunitasafunctionofthenumberofhoursitwasinservice(synchronizedtothegrid).
Howhardwastheunitpushed Theenergyproducedmaybeoutsidetheoperatorscontrolduetodispatch.
ThehighertheNOF,thehighertheloadingoftheunitwhenonline.
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ComparingNCFandNOF
NCF = 100% x (Net Actual Generation)[PH x (Net Maximum Capacity)]
NOF = 100% x (Net Actual Generation)[SH x (Net Maximum Capacity)]
NCF measures % of time at full load.NOF measures the loading of the unit when operated.
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Whatcanyoulearnfromthischart?
EAF NCF NOF
Nuclear 87.19 88.36 98.96
Fossil,coal 83.33 63.62 81.15
Fossil,gas 84.17 12.53 35.98
Fossil,oil 83.83 8.12 39.81
Gasturbines 88.54 2.51 69.69
Hydro 84.61 40.67 67.43(Datafromthe20082012GADSBrochure)
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IEEE762Equations Rates
DiscussionoftheMostCommonUsesIEEE762RatesandWhyTheyAreImportanttothePowerIndustry
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ForcedOutageRate ByDefinition:
Thepercentofscheduledoperatingtimethataunitisoutofserviceduetounexpectedproblemsorfailures.
Measuresthereliabilityofaunitduringscheduledoperation
Sensitivetoservicetime (reserveshutdownsandscheduledoutagesinfluenceFORresults)
Bestusedtocomparesimilarloads: baseloadvs.baseload cyclingvs.cycling
ThelowertheFOR,thebetter.
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ForcedOutageRateCalculation:
FOR = FOH FOH + SH + Syn Hrs. + Pmp Hrs.
Comparison: unit with high SH vs. low SH(SH = 6000 hrs. vs. 600 hrs.; FOH = 200 hrs.)
FOR = 200 = 3.23%200 + 6000
FOR = 200 = 25.00%200 + 600
x 100%
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EquivalentForcedOutageRate
ByDefinition: ThepercentofscheduledoperatingtimethataunitisoutofserviceduetounexpectedproblemsorfailuresANDcannotreachfullcapabilityduetoforcedcomponentorequipmentfailures.
Theprobabilitythataunitwillnotmeetitsdemandedgenerationrequirements.
Goodmeasureofreliability ThelowertheEFOR,thebetter.
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EquivalentForcedOutageRate
Calculation:EFOR = FOH + EFDH .
(FOH + SH + Syn Hrs. + Pmp Hrs. + EFDHRS)
where EFDH = (EFDHSH + EFDHRS)
EFDHSH is Equivalent Forced Derated Hours during Service Hours.
EFDHRS is Equivalent Forced Derated Hoursduring Reserve Shutdown Hours.
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EquivalentForcedOutageRate
EFOR = FOH + EFDH .(FOH + SH + EFDHRS )
As an example:
FOH = 750, EFDH = 450, SH = 6482, EDFHRS=0, Syn Hrs. = 0, Pmp Hrs. = 0
EFOR = 750 + 450 .(750 + 6482 + 0 )
= 16.6%
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EquivalentForcedOutageRateDemand(EFORd)
Markovequationdevelopedinthe1970s
Usedbytheindustryformanyyears PJMInterconnection SimilartothatusedbytheCanadianElectricityAssociation BeingusebytheCEA,PJM,NewYorkISO,ISONewEngland,andCaliforniaISO
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EquivalentForcedOutageRateDemand(EFORd)
Interpretation: Theprobabilitythataunitwillnotmeetitsdemandperiods forgeneratingrequirements.
Bestmeasureofreliabilityforallloadingtypes(base,cycling,peaking,etc.)
Bestmeasureofreliabilityforallunittypes(fossil,nuclear,gasturbines,diesels,etc.)
Fordemandperiodmeasuresandnotforthefull24hourclock. ThelowertheEFORd,thebetter.
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EquivalentForcedOutageRateDemand(EFORd)
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EFORdEquation:
EFORd= [(FOHd) + (EFDHd)] x 100%[SH + (FOHd)]
Where: FOHd = f x FOHf = [(1/r)+(1/T)]
[(1/r)+(1/T)+(1/D)]r= FOH/(# of FOH occur.)T= RSH/(# of attempted Starts)D= SH/(# of actual starts)EFDHd = fp x EFDH
fp = SH/AH
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ExampleofEFORdvs.EFOR
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EFOR vs. EFORdGeneral Trend
EFOREFORd
EFOR, range from 6.2 to 130.0%
EFORd, range from 4.7 to 30.7%
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ExampleofEFORdvs.EFOR
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Corresponding EFOR & EFORd Values
EFOR vs. EFORdGas Turbines
EFORd EFOR
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Whatcanyoulearnfromthischart?
(Datafromthe20082012GADSBrochure)
FOR EFOR EFORd SH RSH
Nuclear 3.34 3.94 3.94 7,788.59 1.67
Fossil,coal 6.12 8.30 7.52 6,150.41 1,265.64
Fossil,gas 14.41 16.64 9.68 2,358.66 4,459.50
Fossil,oil 15.23 17.31 12.71 1,810.89 5,432.38
Gasturbines 63.09 62.79 10.65 208.89 7,693.79
Hydro 5.79 5.99 5.43 5,226.12 1,532.32
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EAF+EFOR=100%?Given: PH = 8760, SH = 10, RSH = 8460. FOH = 290. No deratings.
EAF = AF = AHPH
EAF = 84708760
EAF = 97.7%
EFOR = FOR = FOH__ (SH+ FOH)
EFOR = 290____ (290 + 10)
EFOR = 97.7%
Factors and rates are not additive and not complementary!
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OutsideManagementControl(OMC) Thereareanumberofoutagecausesthatmayprevent
theenergycomingfromapowergeneratingplantfromreachingthecustomer.Somecausesareduetotheplantoperationandequipmentwhileothersareoutsideplantmanagementcontrol(OMC).
GADSneedstotrackalloutages butwantstogivesomecreditforOMCevents.
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WhatareOMCEvents? Gridconnectionorsubstationfailure Actsofnaturesuchasicestorms,tornados,winds,
lightning,etc. Actsofterrorsortransmissionoperating/repairerrors Lackoffuels
Waterfromriversorlakes,coalmines,gaslines,etc. BUTNOToperatorelectedtocontractforfuelswherethefuel(forexample,naturalgas)canbeinterrupted
Laborstrikes BUTNOTdirectplantmanagementgrievances
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ComparingEAF,WEAF,XEAF,etc.EAF = (AH - ESDH - EFDH - ESEDH) x 100%
PH
WEAF = NMC(AH - ESDH - EFDH - ESEDH) x 100% NMC (PH)
XEAF = (AH - ESDH - EFDH - ESEDH) x 100%PH
XWEAF = NMC(AH - ESDH - EFDH - ESEDH) x 100% NMC (PH)
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ComparingEAF,WEAF,XEAF,etc.
Fossil (All sizes), Coal Nuclear Gas Turbines
EAF 84.64% 86.15% 90.28%
WEAF 84.25% 86.64% 90.06%
XEAF 85.21% 86.50% 90.76%
XWEAF 84.74% 86.98% 90.56%
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HowCanWeReachtheObjectives?
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WhatIsBenchmarking? BusinessDictionary.comdefinesitas
Ameasurementofthequalityofanorganizationspolicies,products,programs,strategies,etc.,andtheircomparisonwithstandardmeasurements,orsimilarmeasurementsofitspeers.
Theobjectivesofbenchmarkingare:(1)todeterminewhatandwhereimprovementsarecalledfor;(2)toanalyzehowotherorganizationsachievetheirhighperformancelevels;and(3)tousethisinformationtoimproveperformance.
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ModesofTransportation
Therearedifferentwaystotravel.Inbenchmarking,therearedifferentwaystodeterminepeergroupsandcompareyourgeneratingunits.
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WhyBenchmark? Benchmarkingishelpingutilities
Setgoals Developincentives Identifyimprovementopportunities Quantifyandmanagerisks Createincreasedawarenessofthepotentialforandthevalueofincreasedplantperformance
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BenchmarkingShouldbeSMART! Specific tothetypeandoperationoftheunit. Measurable toshowactualchanges(+/) Achievableand Reasonable Improvementsarepossible.Dontexpectresultsthatareoutsidereasonableexpectations.
Tested thatthemethodofbenchmarkinghasbeentestedtobeasound,proventechnology.
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PeerSelectionCriteria
NERCGADSDatabase7000+units
LargePopulation
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PeerSelectionCriteriaExact Match
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PeerSelectionCriteria
Must Balance Criteria
Exact MatchesLarge Population
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EasyPeerGroupSelection
BagofMarbles GolfBallsandBBPellets
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EasyPeerGroupSelection Shouldnotcomparenuclearunitstogasturbines.
Shouldnotcompareunitsconstructed40yearsagotonewunitswithoneyearoperation.
Shouldnotcomparebaseloadedunitstothoseonlyusedoccasionally(peakers).
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ChallengingPeerGroupSelection
BagofMarbles SameSize,DifferentColor
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ChallengingPeerGroupSelection Arecoalfiredunitsreallydifferentthanoil orgasfiredunits?
Isthereastatisticalmethodtoshowthat199MWunitsaredifferentthan200MWunits?HowdoyoudeterminewhenoneMWsizeofunitsendsandasecondgroupbegins?
DoestheperformanceofmanufacturerAdiffersignificantlyfromthatofmanufacturerB?
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BenchmarkingGoal Identifygeneratingunits(individually)thatcanbegroupedbasedonboth Unitdesign Operatingexperience
Question: Aretheselectedbenchmarkingcriteriadifferentenoughtobedifferent(golfballsandBBs)or
Aretheselectedbenchmarkingcriteriadifferentyet thesame(samesizemarbles)?
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WhatistheBestBenchmarkingMetric?
Inthebenchmarkingdefinition,itstates Ameasurementofthequalityofanorganizationspolicies,products,programs,strategies,etc.,andtheircomparisonwithstandardmeasurements,orsimilarmeasurementsofitspeers.
Whatisthebestmeasureforcomparingwithpeers?
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PossibleMetricsforBenchmarking EquivalentAvailabilityFactor(EAF)
Measuresthepercentoftimetheunitiscapableoffullloadoperation.
Measureofoverallunitperformanceandhasbeenthecomparativemeasuringmetricforpowerplantsforyears.
Notinfluencedbydispatch Influencedbyoutagerepairs PO,MOandFO Nottotallyindependentofexternalinfluences
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PossibleMetricsforBenchmarking NetCapacityFactor(NCF)
Measuresthepercentoftimetheunitwasatfullloadoperation.
Usedasameasureofoverallunitloadingcapabilityforcategoriessuchasbaseloaded,cycling,etc.
Nottotallyindependentofexternalinfluences Influencedbydispatch Influencedbyoutagerepairs
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PossibleMetricsforBenchmarking EquivalentForcedOutageRate(EFOR)
Measurestheprobabilityofexperiencingaforcedoutageorforcedderating.
Designedforunitsoperatedcontinuallywithlittleornoreserveshutdowns(baseload).
Independentofexternalinfluences Notinfluencedbydispatch Notinfluencedbymaintenanceorplannedoutagerepairs,notforcyclingorpeakingunits.
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PossibleMetricsforBenchmarking EquivalentForcedOutageRateDemand(EFORd)
Measurestheprobabilityofexperiencingaforcedoutageorforcedderatingduringdemandperiods.
Designedforunitsinalloperatingstates(baseload,cycling,peaking,etc.).
Notinfluencedbydispatch Notinfluencedbymaintenanceorplannedoutagerepairs
Bestreliabilitymetric RECOMMENDED!
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HowManyPeerUnits? Itishighlyrecommendedthataminimumof30generatingunitsshouldbeusedtocompareagainstyourunit(orgroupofunits.) Lessthan30unitscanresultinabias(highorlow). Adistributionofthebenchmarkingmetriccanidentifyanybias.
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BenchmarkingOptions Unitbenchmarking
Reviewtheentiregeneratingunitasawholeandlookforwhatmakestheunitunique.
Componentbenchmarking Reviewthemajorcomponent/groupofcomponentsasawholeandlookforwhatmakesthecomponent(s)unique.
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UnitBenchmarkingOption#1 Traditionalmethodwhereuserselectswhatoptionsareimportantandwhatoptionsarethesame. Samesteamturbinemanufacturer Samefuelsburned UsingGADSreportfordeterminingMWsizeofthegroup
100199MW 400599MW
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UnitBenchmarkingOption#1 Advantages
Manypeopleuseit Quickdeterminationofwhattouseascriteriabasedongutfeeling
Disadvantages Nostatisticalbackupastoprovethatonecriteriaisbetterthananother.
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UnitBenchmarkingOption#2 StatisticalAnalysisMethod
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PeerSelectionCriteria
ASSUME
Etc.
Etc.
Etc.
Etc.
Etc.VintageFiring
Age
Size
Duty
Fuel
Draft
BoilerManufacturer
TurbineManufacturer
Criticality
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PeerSelectionCriteria
Etc.
Etc.
Etc.
Etc.
Etc.VintageFiring
Age
Size
Duty
Fuel
Draft
BoilerManufacturer
TurbineManufacturer
Criticality
ANALYSIS
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PeerSelectionCriteria
SignificanceTestingSubcritical Supercritical Cyclic DutyBase load Duty
EFORd EFORd
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PeerGroupsSelectCriteriaFossilUnits
All Fossil Units
MODE OF OPERATIONVINTAGE
SubSuper
CRITICALITY
Cycling
SomeFindings GolfballsandBBs
Nuclearvs.simplecyclegasturbines Subcriticalvs.supercriticalpressures Balancedvs.pressurizedboilers
Samesizemarbles Gasvs.oilfiredboilers SteamturbinemanufacturerAvs.B
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DoesPeerSelectionMakeaDifference?
SUPERCRITICAL FOSSIL UNIT TECHNOLOGY
EARLY VINTAGE RECENT VINTAGE
EFORd (mean) 15.60% 9.68%EFORd (median) 12.17% 8.08%EFORd (best quartile) 8.14% 5.47%
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DoesPeerSelectionMakeaDifference?
EFORd PLANTAOLD CRITERIA NEW CRITERIA % DIFFERENCE (Coal; 100-199MW)
mean 6.47% 5.53% -14%
median 4.78% 5.07% +6%
best quartile 2.65% 3.26% +23%
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ReliabilityBenchmarkingResults42PeerUnits
Peerunitselectioncriteria Subcritical Reserveshutdownhourslessthan963hoursperyear
Naturalboilercirculation Primaryfuel=coal Singlereheat Netoutputfactorgreaterthan85.6%
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PeerUnitEFORdDistribution
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GamePlan
Tosimplyfindwaysthateitheroutagefrequency,outageduration,orboth,canbereducedandkeptatalevelconsistentwithminimumgenerationcostsandloadmanagementobjectives.
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MotherLodeShoppingListListofTop10CausesofForcedOutages
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Rank CauseCode DescriptionOccurrenceper
UnitYearMWHperOccurrence
MWHperUnitYear
1 1050 SecondSuperheaterLeaks 1.01 19,697.83 19,987.16
2 1000 Waterwall(furnaceWall) 0.43 25,896.34 11,226.20
3 1040 FirstSuperheaterLeaks 0.28 26,940.82 7,443.75
4 1060 FirstReheaterLeaks 0.19 27,473.08 5,235.04
5 4520 Gen.StatorWindings;Bushings;AndTerminals 0.02 221,062.64 4,212.39
6 1080 EconomizerLeaks 0.17 24,105.14 4,133.95
7 3620 MainTransformer 0.07 54,428.70 3,889.31
8 3659 OtherDcPowerProblems 0.03 124,869.58 3,569.12
9 4470 DifferentialExpansion 0.04 92,785.69 3,536.10
10 1090 OtherBoilerTubeLeaks 0.10 34,137.96 3,252.52
DatafromNERCpcGARsoftware.
Conclusions
Benchmarkingishelpingutilitiesby Helpingsetreasonablegoals Identifyingimprovementopportunities Quantifyingandmanagingrisks Creatingincreasedawarenessofthepotentialandvalueofincreasedplantperformance
Properpeergroupselectionisessential!
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PresidentGenerationConsultingServices,LLC
(801)8556575mike@generationconsultingservices.com
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