REDESIGNING URBAN GOVERNANCE: CREATING RISK NEUTRAL …

REDESIGNING URBAN GOVERNANCE: CREATING RISK NEUTRAL CITIES FOR SUSTAINABILITY

KOMAL RAJ ARYAL PhD

CONTENTS

• Introduction

• Revisiting recent urban crisis (2013-14 Ebola outbreaks in West Africa, 2015 Nepal

earthquakes and 2015-2016 Zika Virus outbreaks)

• Cascading effects of disaster ( eg. The 2015 Nepal Gorkha Twin Earthquakes)

• Challenges in urban risk and response governance

• Need of a local risk neutral planning for sustainability : how can we start ?

INTRODUCTION Doctor of Philosophy (PhD), Northumbria University, UK.Thesis Title : Getting down to local level: exploring vulnerability to improve disaster management systems in Nepal.MSc (Disaster Management and Sustainable Development), Northumbria University, UK.B.Sc. (Environmental Sciences) , University of Delhi, India.

Current research activities : -to develop a local risks based decision support tool with Dr. Roy Sanderson, Professor Qiuhua Liang and Dr. Sean Wilkinson

from Newcastle University, UK-Affiliated International Researcher, The Gorkha, Nepal Earthquake: A Multilevel Approach to Disaster Resilience Measurement Project (2016-2017) with Dr. R.J Ferreira, Disaster Resilience Leadership Academy (DRLA), Tulane University, USA.

REVISITING RECENT URBAN CRISIS

• 2013-14 Ebola outbreaks in West Africa, • 2015 Nepal earthquakes, • 2015-2016 Zika Virus outbreaks.

2013-14 EBOLA OUTBREAKS IN WEST AFRICA AND GLOBAL IMPACT

Education and disaster impact are closely related.

Maps source: google search

GLOBAL MAP OF ZIKA VIRUS : AS OF MAY 26, 2016

http://www.cdc.gov/zika/geo/active-countries.html

At 11:56:15 on 25th April, 2015 ( Local Time , Nepal)

FIRST 2

4 H

OU

RS

24-48 HOURS

4

8

+

H

O

U

R

S

FROM 48 HOURS – 2 MONTHS

LANDSLIDES

Land Cracks &

Liquefaction

Temporary shelter in forest

Depletion of natural water resources

Drinking water infrastructure damage

Migration to nearest urban area

Road & Bridges damage

River blockage

CASCADING EFFECTS OF THE 2015 NEPAL GORKHA TWIN EARTHQUAKES (as of 16 June, 2016)

Artificial lakescreation

Reptiles attacks and increased numbers of rats

Depletion of natural resources

Open kitchen and extreme cold weather ( eg. use of open fire )

Less people to do local agricultural and reconstruction work

Pressure to urban governance ( high unemployment, income losses, trafficking ,

increased crimes and mental health problem)

ECOLOGICAL CYCLE DISTURPTION

SOCIAL & FINANCIAL

LOSSES

FLOOD

FOREST FIRES

DISEASE OUTBREAKS

Sudden death of reptiles, frogs, fish

2015 Nepal

EQ

NATIONAL GDP SHRINKS TO 0.77 from 5.1 *

INCREASED VULNERABILITY TO

FUTURE CRISIS

Damage to heritages Sites

* Expected for FY 2016-17

LANDSLIDES

Land Cracks &

Liquefaction

Temporary shelter in forest

Depletion of Natural water resources

Drinking water infrastructure damage

Migration to nearest urban area

Road & Bridges damages

River blockages

CASCADING EFFECTS OF THE 2015 NEPAL GORKHA TWIN EARTHQUAKES (as of 16 June, 2016)

Artificial lakescreation

Reptiles attacks and increased numbers of

rats Depletion of natural

resources

Open kitchen and extreme cold weather ( eg. use of open fire )

Less people to do local agricultural and reconstruction work

Pressure to urban governance ( high unemployment, income losses, trafficking ,

increased crimes and mental health problem)

ECOLOGICAL CYCLE DISTURPTION

SOCIAL & FINANCIAL

LOSSES

FLOOD

FOREST FIRES

DISEASE OUTBREAKS

Sudden death of reptiles, frogs, fish

2015 Nepal

EQ

NATIONAL GDP SHRINKS TO 0.77 from 5.1 *

INCREASED VULNERABILITY TO

FUTURE CRISIS

Damage Heritages Sites

LOSS OF VEGETATION

ROCK SPARKING

* Expected for FY 2016-17

HEAVY RAIN

1. Landslides

2. Rock Sparking

3. Forest Fire

4. Loss of Vegetation

IMMEDIATELY AFTER MAJOR EARTHQUAKE or LANDSLIDES EVENTS

IN LONG RUN-BASED ON LOCALISED PRECIPITATION CONCENTRATIONClimate Change ???

EQ OR RAINFALL INDUCED

ARE OUR CITIES ADEQUATELY CAPABLE TO RESPOND FUTURE KNOWN AND UNKNOWN CRISIS ?Most of our cities are not ……………

WHY THEY ARE NOT? High level of corruption due to local social inequity ;

Inadequate local disaster risk governance infrastructures ;Examples--Not designated unit to deal with local disaster risk management.-Weak fire and rescue service.-Absence of an integrated local risks based data management system (collection, coordination and analysis) for decision support.

Local risk management is yet to be considered as one of the key factors for local SUSTAINABILITY or local sustainable development.

Most of international development activities are still “project based not process based”.

When disaster strikes in city that lacks local risk governance infrastructure, it hits hard to local and national economy affecting sustainable development process . Examples:

20 % of population affected by flood in

September, 2010

2013- early 2014 Migratory birds attacks ( Quelea) and the country

highly exposed to Ebola outbreaks.

Source: Kathmandu Post Daily, 27 May, 2016

THE GAMBIA NEPAL

LOCAL RISK NEUTRAL PLANNING FOR URBAN SUSTAINABILITY : HOW CAN WE START ?

Disaster

Disasterand risk

Before,2007 From 2007

Municipal Risk and Resilience Governance Model(A pilot study funded by British Council and UKaid 2007-2009 in Nepal )

ER: Elected RepresentativeD: DepartmentWR:RRC representativeMRRC: Municipal Risk and

Resilience Committee

Ministry of Local Development

Municipal Council

Municipal Government

D1 D2 D3 D4

Local Self Governance Act 1999 to form RRC

D5/ MRCC

Mayor Elected ward officials,Representatives from various political parties, NGOs, police and army units, college and school representatives with balance gender participation

WR2WR1 WR3 WR4 WR5ER1 ER2 ER3 ER4

Ministry of Local Development

Municipal Council

Municipal Government

D1 D2 D3 D4/ Social Service

ER1 ER2 ER3 ER4

January 2007 -May 2012 August 2012 July 2013 –March 2015 April 2015

• A carbon neutral landfill

site in Dhankuta

• 8 Fire engines, and

search & rescue

equipment and training

from the UK and Italy.

• Many municipalities

started fire engine

procurement process

from Nepalese

government fund.

Science based Multi levels Engagement and Advocacy Inputs and Impact

Project to Process is a long and tiring work, it neds dedication and commitments

• 10 fire response motor

bikes form a local

business house ( local

public –private

partnership)

• Urban Risk & Response

Training supports from JICA /UNDP/ Australia

Risk an

d R

esilience P

ilot P

roject

25th

April 2015 Nepal

EQ

How project facilitated to maximise the impact of science for adapting risk

governance activities and building local resilience ?

01-14 May 2012

Angle of North ,UK

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION !

Supporting slides

Linking hazard, risk, vulnerability, disaster and resilience

H

P

R

V

CE-D

Bounced Back : getting back to normal

Bounced Forward; adaptation and adjusting to a new normal

Resistance, holding the line

Transformation – owning a need to change

RESILIENCE

Recover but worse than before

E

H

R

R=Risk H=Hazard E= Environment P=People V=Vulnerability D=Disaster CE-D= Cascading Effects of Disaster

At RISK situation

Political

Social Physical

D1Economi

cal

D2

D3

D4

D5E

Disaster