Recent hydrological and climatological changes V. Barros

Recent hydrological and climatological changes

V. Barros

http://www.claris-eu.org/

FLOODSFLOODS

1. CHARACTERIZATION

Flood of 2007 autumn15/02 to 15/05

-70 -65 -60 -55 -50

-40

-35

-30

-25

Mosaic of imagens of peak flows of the Paraná River in 1998. In blue, the flooded areaand in light blue the permanent water area

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http://www.claris-eu.org/

C

CONCLUSION

IN LARGE SCALE FLOODS (MONTH OR MORE )

Two types

GREAT RIVER FLOODSMEDIUM SCALE RIVER AND PLAIN FLOODS

º

http://www.claris-eu.org/

WP9 - FLOODSWP9 - FLOODS

2FLOODS FROM MEDIUM SCALE

RIVERSAND

IN PLAINS

http://www.claris-eu.org/

WP9 - FLOODSWP9 - FLOODS

http://www.claris-eu.org/

WP9 – SOIL MOISTUREWP9 – SOIL MOISTURE

http://www.claris-eu.org/

WP9 – SOIL MOISTUREWP9 – SOIL MOISTURE

http://www.claris-eu.org/

WP9 - FLOODSWP9 - FLOODS

3. FLOODS FROM GREAT

RIVERS

SAURRAL 2010, J. HYDROMETEOROLOGY

http://www.claris-eu.org/

ARE SOME HYDROLOGICAL MODELS CAPABLE OF SIMULATING PRESENT AND EVENTUALLY FUTURE

DISCHARGES AND THEIR EXTREMES?

http://www.claris-eu.org/

CONCLUSION

DISTRIBUTED HYDROLOGICAL MODELS ARE ABLE TO REPRODUCE MEAN ANNUAL AND MONTHLY DISCHARGES

With some error in the Paraguay River

YET NEED TO ADJUST THE MODEL AT DAILY SCALE

http://www.claris-eu.org/

SINCE DISTRIBUTED HYDROLOGICAL

MODELS PROVIDE DISCHARGE FLOWS AND NOT LEVELS

CAN LEVELS OF FLOOD BE DETERMINED BY STREAMFLOWS ?

Maximum daily height of the month as a function of the mean monthly flow in Paso

de lo Libres

Maximum daily height of the month in the Paraná River in Reconquista as a function of the mean monthly flow in

Corrientes 1990-1999. Only for months that are part of a sequence of 3 with flows over 30000 m3/s

http://www.claris-eu.org/

WP9 - FLOODSWP9 - FLOODS

C

CONCLUSION

FLOOD INDICATORS CAN BE CALCULATEDFROM RIVER DISCHARGES

THERE WAS A CHANGE?

http://www.claris-eu.org/

Monthly Discharges over average + 3 σ

Río Uruguay - Paso de los Libres

5 5 54

34

5

7

10

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

década '10 década '20 década '30 década '40 década '50 década '60 década '70 década '80 década '90

Nro

. de

caso

s

Monthly Discharges over average + 3 σ

Río Paraná - Corrientes

21 1

01 1

0

12

10

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

década '10 década '20 década '30 década '40 década '50 década '60 década '70 década '80 década '90

Nro

. de

caso

s

Climate change impact on floodingMaximum Flow - Gumbel

BERMEJO - Pozo Sarmiento

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

1 10 100

Return Period (Years)

Flo

w (

m3 /s

)

COMPLETE SERIE

SUB-SERIE 1: 1940-41 a 73-74

SUB-SERIE 2: 1973-74 a 2005-06

PARANÁ - Corrientes

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

1 10 100

Return Period (Years)

Flo

w (

m3 /s

)

COMPLETE SERIE

SUB-SERIE 1: 1904-05 a 75-76

SUB-SERIE 2: 1975-76 a 2005-06

PARAGUAY - Puerto Pilcomayo

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

1 10 100

Return Period (Years)

Flo

w (

m3 /s

)

COMPLETE SERIE

SUB-SERIE 1: 1910-11 a 77-78

SUB-SERIE 2: 1977-78 a 2005-06

URUGUAY - Paso de los Libres

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

1 10 100Return Period (Years)

Flo

w (

m3 /s

)

COMPLETE SERIE

SUB-SERIE 1: 1909 a 1981

SUB-SERIE 2: 1981 a 2005

http://www.claris-eu.org/

WP9 - FLOODSWP9 - FLOODS

C

CONCLUSION

THERE WAS A CHANGE

NEW RETURN CALCULATIONS SHOULD CONSIDERTHE NEW CONDITIONS

(at least until more certain scenarios will be developed)

RESULT (Stakeholders)

http://www.claris-eu.org/

ARE INCREASING STREAMFLOWS INFLUENCED BY

LAND USE CHANGE OR

BY CLIMATE OR BY BOTH?

http://www.claris-eu.org/

DOYLE Y BARROS, INT J . CLIMATOLOGY 2010

http://www.claris-eu.org/

http://www.claris-eu.org/

CONSISTENT WITH SAURRAL ET AL 2008 GRL

http://www.claris-eu.org/

WP9 - FLOODSWP9 - FLOODS

C

CONCLUSION 4RUN OFF CHANGE WAS CAUSED BY BOTH

IN THE NORTH BY LAND USE CHANGE

IN THE SOUTH BY CLIMATE

IN THE MIDDLE BY BOTH

NOW LOOKING ON THE EFFECT ON FLOODS

Annual rainfall linear trends in mm/year. Period1960–1999. Shaded area, significant at the 95% level

CLIMATE AND STREAMFLOWS

Annual precipitation linear trends in mm/year during

a) El Niño, b) La Niña and c) Neutral phases. Period

1960–1999

V. R. Barros, M. E. Doyle, I. A. Camilloni 2008

a) b)

c)

Mean squared leading SLP factor loadings, warm semester

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.91961

1962

1963

1964

1965

1966

1967

1968

1969

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

FL12

FL22

FL12+FL22

a

FL32

- 70 - 6 5 - 6 0 - 55 - 50 - 4 5 - 40

Correlación Su m a P P P - FL 2R M ed io O C- M R

- 4 0

- 35

- 30

- 25

- 20

Linear correlation coefficients between rainfall and leading SLP factor loadings (FL2) for the warm semester: Significant areas at

a 95% level are shaded.