Recent efforts by Mexico to measure migration flows and stocks

Recent efforts by Mexico to measure migration flows and stocks

Alfredo Bustos (INEGI-Mex)Joint UNECE/Eurostat Work Session on

Migration Statistics Geneva, 17-19 October 2012

Summary

• Focus on use of different sources for the study of migration. • Flows

– From 2006, quarterly LFS has been used to follow changes in household composition, specially via migration.

– Arrivals or departures of dwellers over 3-months are recorded. – Quarterly birth-, death-and migration-rates produced.

• Stocks– For emigrants, look at administrative “paper trail” in destination countries. – Example, NCHS information regarding the mother’s place of birth. – Combine with ACS’ birth-rates and age-sex structures for the Mexico-born

population residing in the USA to obtain estimate for that population size.

• On-going work that could be used in other regions.

Layout

• Flows: ENOE, Mexico’s quarterly labour force survey

• Stocks: ACS plus Birth Certificate data

FLOWS: ENOE, MEXICO'S QUARTERLY LABOUR FORCE SURVEY

ENOE

One of the longest-running statistical projects in the country. •Main purpose, to produce national and state-level quarterly unemployment rates.

– Information collected continuously over three-month periods.

– Sample size fixed at 120,060 dwellings every quarter.

– New entries are randomly selected with unequal probabilities from stratified sampling frame.

Rotation pattern

• Each quarter, 20% of households leave sample after completing five-interview tour,

• replaced by new (semi-)panel with same size,• remains in sample for five consecutive rounds of

interviews, one quarter apart. • Hence, 80% quarter-to-quarter sample overlap.• Useful in determining quarterly change patterns in

– household composition, – occupational status of individuals,– etc.

Common sample in two successive quarters due to ENOE's Rotation Pattern

Rotation Pattern

Information Collected

Monitoring Household Composition

Interested in learning about people who:• are no longer part of the household because

of – death or – emigration, or

• join as new members of the household by reason of– birth or– immigration.

New Panel's First Interview

In addition to job data, initial roster of individuals in each household is developed. Recording, among other socio-demographic variables, •place of birth,•age, •sex,•relationship to head of household,•educational characteristics (for human-capital studies),

http://www.inegi.org.mx/est/contenidos/proyectos/encuestas/hogares/regulares/enoe/default.aspx?\&\_s=est\&\_c=14731

Subsequent Interviews

Information for immigrants includes• Former place of residence (state or

country), • socio-demographic characteristics, • reasons for migrating:

– work or study,– marriage or divorce,– health reasons, – joining the family group, – environmental– violence, criminal or social.

Subsequent Interviews

Information for emigrants includes• Place of destination (state or country),• reasons for migrating

– work or study,– marriage or divorce,– health reasons, – joining the family group, – violence, criminal or social.

Consequences of Rotation Pattern

Expansion factors

Must take into account:

• Changes in population size.

• Expand to 80% of population size, at best.

• Differential non-response.

Consequences for Immigration

• Estimates total number of immigrants received by households over one quarter.

• In other words, households are considered "at risk" of receiving one or more migrants.– Use expansion factors for households– Immigration shown relative to population size.

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Numerical Results

Quarterly Net Migration Rates in Mexico, 2006-2012.

http://www.inegi.org.mx/inegi/contenidos/espanol/prensa/Boletines/muestra3.asp?tema=22&s=inegi&c=279

2006-II 2006-IV 2007-II 2007-IV 2008-II 2008-IV 2009-II 2009-IV 2010-II 2010-IV 2011-II 2011-IV 2012-II

Year-over-Year Job Growth in Metropolitan Areas, USA, 2001-2011

(Natural Resources, Mining, Construction)

Source: http://www.pittsburghtoday.org/view_economy_job_growth_years_change.html, Aug. 3rd, 2011.

Results.

• Declining trend in the number of out migrants from 2006– Burst of the housing bubble in the US?

• Stable situation for immigration, includes return migrants.

• Distinct seasonal pattern exhibited by both out- and in-migrants over the same period– Vanishes toward the end. Multiplicative

seasonality?

Age and Sex Structure

Age and Sex Structure of International Out-migrants in Mexico, 2006-2009.

• Low frequency of inter-state migration difficults production of reliable estimates for greater geographical disaggregation. – Age and sex characteristics of the migrant

population, stable. – When records over the 2006-2009 period are

pooled, age-sex structures may be produced.

• Recent Mexican emigration is predominantly male and occurs mainly at working ages.

Age and Sex Structure of International Out-migrants in Mexico, 2006-2011.

STOCKS: ACS PLUS BIRTH CERTIFICATE DATA

US Census: Stand up and be counted? By Laura Trevelyan BBC News, New York 2010 is census year in America - and there is a lot riding on this drive to count everyone in the country. Some $400bn (£251bn) of federal money is allocated according to the population in each of the 50 states, and so are Congressional seats.

“ If you want better services, allow yourself to be counted, I am guaranteeing that nothing bad will happen to you ” Ruben Diaz Jr, Bronx Borough president

“ I now how afraid the people are, they are hiding, and they believe the police force is looking for them ” Carlos Soto

Sources

• Population Censuses• Population projections

• Expansion factors

• Surveys• Public data

– Births– School attendance– Health– Etc.

Total births in USA, 1990-2006

Source: Own from NCHS-CDC data bases, 1990-2006

Births in the USA, 1997-2006

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Total number of births in USA

3,884,329 3,945,192 3,963,465 4,063,823 4,031,531 4,027,376 4,096,092 4,118,907 4,145,619 4,273,225

Year-to-year differences

-10,545 60,863 18,273 100,358 -32,292 -4,155 68,716 22,815 26,712 127,606

Births to Mexico-born women

Mothers place of residence: Total

307,680 315,906 336,525 370,191 396,147 407,910 425,911 440,723 451,305 526,500

Mothers place of residence: México

2,381 2,697 2,950 3,994 4,559 4,813 5,278 5,658 5,921 7,777

Mothers place of residence: USA

305,299 313,209 333,575 366,197 391,588 403,097 420,633 435,065 445,384 518,723

Note: 2005-2006 births to México-born women estimated Source: Own from NCHS-CDC data bases, 1997-2006

Births to Mexico-born women

Note: 2005-2006 values were estimated Source: Own from NCHS-CDC data bases, 1990-2006

Mexico-born fertility in the United States, avge. 2005-2007

Source(1) Gregg Robinson, Private communication: USBC, 2005-2007 American Community Survey 3-

Year Estimates, American Community Survey (ACS), Geographic Area: United States, Country of Birth: Mexico 

(2) Own from NCHS-CDC data bases, 1990-2006(3) 2004 value(*) Birth certificate data not corrected for multiple births

FERTILITY Total PrecisionMexico-born

Precision

Women 15 to 50 years(1)

75,852,755

+/-14,666 3,717,791 +/-18,458

Women 15 to 50 years who had a birth in the past 12 months (1)

4,171,764 +/-20,119 352,152 +/-6,247

Ratio 5.50% 9.47%Birth Certificates

(2)*4,273,225 NA

435,065 (3) NA

Ratio 5.63%   11.70%

Mexico-born fertility in the United States, avge. 2005-2007

Source:(1) Data Ferret, USBC, 2005-2007 American Community Survey 3-Year Estimates, American Community

Survey (ACS), Geographic Area: United States, Country of Birth: Mexico (2) Own from NCHS-CDC data bases, 1990-2006(3) 2004 value(*) Birth certificate data not corrected for multiple births

FERTILITY Total PrecisionMexico-born

Precision

Women 15 to 50 years(1)

75,871,980 NA 3,763,363 NA

       Women 15 to 50 years who had a birth in the past 12 months (1)

4,188,747 NA 357,860 NA

Ratio 5.52%   9.51%  

Birth Certificates (2) 4,273,225 NA 435,065 (3)

NA

Ratio 5.63%   11.56%  

Data deficienciesNecessary assumptions:• Birth data-bases for 2005-2006 did not include the mother’s place of birth.

– Birth-rates or sex-age structures of the Mexico-born population did not change much over a short period. I used the assumption about birth-rates.

– Estimate the 2004 population, not available for ACS in the Data Ferret on-line tool.

• Timing is not equal. – Birth rates from question to women about births in past 12 months (from July 1 of survey

year). – NCHS births are for a calendar year (January - December).

• Numbers refer to same concept– ACS numbers refer to women while NCHS ones to children. Allow for multiple births.

• Some Mexican migrants do not respond to the census and/or the ACS, but still bear children.

– Are they similar to the rest in this respect? or is there a bias?– There is life after censuses and surveys.

1st. Rough Preliminary Results (DO NOT QUOTE)

Births to México-born women, 15-50,

2006 (A)

Women 15 to 50 years

(B)= A1/A2

Estimated México-born population living in the USA, 2004

(C)=B1/B2

ACS estimated México-born population

living in the USA, 2006

1 434,415 (1) 4,568,438 (3)14,080,738

(3)11,599,353 (1)

2 9.51% (2) 32.44% (2) 100% 82.38% (3)

Source: (1) Own calculations based on NCHS birth certificate data-bases, 2004(2) Data Ferret, ACS, 2005-2007 American Community Survey 3-Year Estimates(3) Own calculations, as shown.

ACS FertilityEstimated Birth Rates by Age and Total Fertility Rate for Women Born in Mexico based on American Community Survey Question on Births in the Previous Year

  Female Birth in last year:

 population  

Age born in Mexico Yes No Birth rate   

   Total, 15 to 44 3,282,345 354,779 2,927,566 108.1

   Between 15 and 19 289,828 23,992 265,836 82.8Between 20 and 24 460,121 81,975 378,146 178.2Between 25 and 29 630,694 104,561 526,133 165.8Between 30 and 34 701,257 84,147 617,110 120.0Between 35 and 39 667,416 46,677 620,739 69.9Between 40 and 44 533,029 13,427 519,602 25.2

  Total Fertility Rate     3209.2

Source: ACS 2005-2007 Public Use file

ACS question 19: "Have you given birth to any children in the past 12 months"

Births to Mexico-born women, 2006

Total by age group

Age group 15-50 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-50

Births (2004)

NCHS (1)434,415 50,461 122,682 124,534 88,889 39,412 8,084 353

Birth-rates (2006)ACS (2)

9.51% 8.28% 17.82% 16.58% 12.00% 6.99% 2.52% 0.64%NEW FIGURE FOR TOTAL,

15-50

Mexico-born

women by age group

(2004) (3)=(1)/(2)

4,568,438 609,579 688,607 751,168 740,775 563,537 320,921 55,112 3,729,698

Source: (1) Own calculations based on NCHS birth certificate data-bases, 2004(2) Data Ferret, ACS, 2005-2007 American Community Survey 3-Year Estimates(3) Own calculations, as shown.

2nd. Rough Preliminary Results (DO NOT QUOTE)

Births to México-born women, 15-50,

2006 (A)

Women 15 to 50 years

Estimated México-born population living in the USA, 2004

(C)=B1/B2

ACS estimated México-born population

living in the USA, 2006

1 434,415 (1) 3,729,698 (3)11,495,592(3

)11,599,353 (1)

2 9.51% (2) 32.44% (2) 100% 100.90% (3)

Source: (1) Own calculations based on NCHS birth certificate data-bases, 2004(2) Data Ferret, ACS, 2005-2007 American Community Survey 3-Year Estimates(3) Own calculations, as shown.

Net International Migration for Mexico

Closing• Use of LFS and of administrative records in study of

Mexico international migration discussed. • Rotation factor of Mexican LFS useful in determining

changes in household composition, specifically by way of migration.

• Use of birth data suggested in the study of migration if migration records unavailable (i.e., undocumented migration or integration process as in Europe).

• Use of other administrative data worth looking into. • The proposal put forward may be of interest to

countries in the region in view of the availability of adequate administrative records.