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Recent developments in NWP and climate modelling in Russia
M.Tolstykh, Hydrometcentre of Russia;
Institute of Numerical Matematics Russian Academy of Sciences
WGNE-27, Boulder, 17-21 October 2011
Plan
Progress in global and regional models Data assimilation Seasonal forecasts: coupled model Climate modelling at INM RAS
Short and medium-range numerical weather prediction
Global models (SL-AV and T169L31) LAM – COSMO-RU Global ensemble prediction system– based
on T169 and SL-AV global models ================== Computers: SGI ALtix4700 (11 Tflops peak
1664 Itanium2 cores); SGI Ice cluster (1410 cores, 16 Tflops peak)
SL-AV model Semi-Lagrangian vorticity-divergence dynamical
core of own development, ALADIN/LACE parameterizations.
Mire parameterization of own development. Currently, 0.9x0.72 degrees lon/lat, 28 levels, runs
on Altix 4700 computer Principal global operational model of RHMC Version with the resolution 0.225x(0.18-0.23)
degrees, 51 levels under testing. Implemented CLIRAD SW radiation
parameterization, encouraging results in the stratosphere.
Mass-conserving SL shallow water model on the reduced lat-lon grid – submitted to J.Comput.Phys.
Plans for SL-AV development
Testing and tuning with CLIRAD SW radiation parameterization.
Implementation of 8-level soil (+multilayer snow) parameterization from INM climate model.
3-D mass conserving semi-Lagrangian advction on the reduced lat-lon grid.
Plan to run ~20 km version quasioperationally early 2012.
T169L31 model Spectral dynamical core Currently, T169, 0.71x0.71 degrees lon/lat,
31 levels, runs on Altix 4700 computer Secondary operational global model of
Roshydromet Version T339L31 (0.35x0.35 degrees lon/
lat) is prepared for regular running The upgraded parameterization scheme of
radiation transfer
LW SW↓
Increase of spectral resolution (old 5, new 8) and new water vapor calculation algorithm allowed to decrease the differences between model and samples by 3-4 times
SW↑
Plans for spectral model development in 2012-2013:
T339L31: Parallel runs in pre-operational mode Corrected soil thermal properties and soil
vertical structure Corrected algorithms for initial data of snow
depth and WE and boundary thermal conditions (OI based)
GME Δx = 30/20 km
COSMO-RU7 Δx = 7 km
COSMO-RU2 Δx =2.2 km Domain: 900 km * 1000 km Grid: 420*470 * 50 Step: 2.2 km Time step: 15 s Forecast: 24 hours Cores: 400
COSMO-RUsib Δx =14 km
GME: initial and boundary data
Domain: 4900 km * 4340 km Grid: 700*620 * 40 Step: 7 km Time step: 40 s Forecast: 78 hours Cores: 800
Domain: 5000 km * 3500 km Grid: 360*250 * 40 Step: 14 km Time step: 80 s Forecast: 78 hours Cores: 48.
10 11/7/11
The mesoscale weather prediction system COSMO-RU became operational in April 2011.
RDP/FDP FROST project for Sochi 2014 Winter Olympic games (incl. participants from Canada, Austria, DWD, HIRLAM, NOAA)
11 KRASNAYA POLYANA
11/7/11 Rivin Gdaly, HMC of Russia
• A new EPS version was implemented in February 2011 • Main advantages of the new version: increased resolution and extended output • Now new and old versions run in parallel • Operational trials of the new version start in autumn 2011
Old version: EPS T85L31 New version: EPS T169L31
First implemented April 2008 February 2011
Membership 15 12 perturbed T85L31
3 control: T85L31,T169L31,SLAV-2008
14 12 perturbed T169L31
1 control T169L31 1 control SLAV-2008
Initial data perturbations
Breeding with regional rescaling, 12hr cycling
Runs per day (UTC ) 1 (12 UTC)
Forecast length T+0h -- T+240h at 6 hrs
Input Hydrometcenter of Russia OA 2.5*2.5
Hydrometcenter of Russia OA 1.25*1.25
Computer A four-node computer based on Quad-Core Intel Xeon5345
(2.33 GHz)
SGI Altix 4700 Itanium 2 1.66 GHz, NUMALink, 1664 PEs, Peak 11 Tflops
Output T850,H500,pmsl (2.5*2.5), convective, large-scale, and
total prec (1.25*1.25)
TIGGE-like base (1.25*1.25)
From October 2010: Verification results for precipitation are published on the Web site of the Lead Centre on
Verification of Ensemble Prediction System http://epsv.kishou.go.jp/EPSv/html/rumseps/probdiagrams.html
Data assimilation
3D-Var-FGAT for global models under quasioperational tuning (M.Tsyrulnikov).
LETKF for 3D SL-AV global model is being implemented (A.Shlyaeva) following successful testing of the shallow-water version.
M Tsyrulnikov, P Svirenko, V Gorin, M Gorbunov, A Ordin
- first guess: still, 6-h GFS forecast
- operational tests are underway
- cyclic DA with the SL-AV global model: under development
- regional 3D-Var version using stretched geometry: under development
- Assimilated satellite data: AMSU-A, COSMIC, GRAS, GRACE, AMV-Geo, AMV Polar, AMV-LeoGeo (mixed
geostationary/polar AMV produced by CIMMS), ASCAT
- Gorin V.E. and Tsyrulnikov M.D. Estimation of multivariate observation- error statistics for AMSU-A data. – Mon. Wea. Rev., 2011 (in print).
3D-Var
3D-Var: Impact of AMSU-A channels 5-10 on 24-h SL-AV forecasts, 20-90N RMS error (w.r.t. an independent analysis).
[Red: without AMSU, Blue: with AMSU.]
Particular features of the seasonal version of SL-AV model
Resolution 1.4x1.125 degrees lon/lat, 28 levels. Described in (Tolstykh et al, Izvestia RAN, Ser. PhA&O, 2010)
Stochastic parameterization of large-scale precipitation (Kostrykin, Ezau, Russian Meteorology and Hydrology, 2001).
Hybrid deep convection closure (Tolstykh, WGNE Res. Act. 2003)
Allows to have more realistic precipitation with relatively low resolution.
Further development of the seasonal version of SL-AV model
Introduction of zonal mean-vertical distribution of ozone instead of vertical profile, tuning.
Replacement of temperature and soil water content from the reanalysis (+empiric initialization of soil ice) by own data generated with 30 years of assimilation of soil variables (including soil ice) using 2m temperature and RH reanalysis
Comparison of atmospheric model hindcasts using soil data from reanalysis (OLD) and soil data from own
quasiassimilation (NEW)
Experimental atmosphere-ocean-ice model - 1
Joint work of Hydrometcentre of Russia and Institute of Numerical Mathematics RAS
Atmospheric part is SL-AV (1.4x1.1, 28 levels) Ocean and ice models, as well as the coupler,
are taken from the INM climate model. Calibrated in CMIP4, participating in CMIP5.
INMOM Ocean model
Sigma-coordinate model with isopicnic horizontal diffusion
1˚x0.5˚ , 40 levels The EVP (elastic- viscous- plastic) dynamics,
Semtner thermodynamics sea ice model (Hunke, Ducowicz 1997; Iakovlev, 2005) is embedded.
Coupling to the atmospheric model without flux correction
Coupled atmosphere-ocean model for seasonal prediction (2)
Globally averaged over 4 seasons heat flux to the ocean with one-way interaction is 4.5 W/m2. Model tuning allowed to reduce this value to 2.8 W/m2.
Atmosphere and ocean models are coupled without flux correction.
10-member ensemble. Only atmospheric initial data is perturbed.
Seasonally averaged atmospheric circulation of the coupled model for months 2-4 is compared to the results of atmospheric model with simple SST evolution.
Calculating seasonal hindcasts with the coupled model: Initial data
Running INMOM ocean model for 1989-2010 using ERA-Interim atmospheric forcing. Archiving ocean model state for the moments when historical seasonal forecasts start
Using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis-2 data in upper atmosphere + SLP as initial data for atmospheric model.
For soil variables, using own soil assimilation scheme correcting soil variables from T2m and RH2m 6-hour forecast error. T2m and RH2m analyses still come from reanalysis-2.(Attempts to use soil fields from reanalyses led to bad results!)
Errors for 500 hPa height (H500) [м], sea-level pressure (MSLP) [mb], 2m temperature (T2m)[˚C], averaged over 1989-2010 years for all seasons for atmospheric model with SST extrapolation (SLAV) and
coupled model (CM). Full fields and model anomalies (ANOM) SLAV RMSE
CM RMSE
SLAV ANOM CORR
СМ ANOM CORR
ANOM SLAV RMSE
ANOM CM RMSE
Н500 20-90 N Tropics 90-20 S MSLP 20-90 N Tropics 90-20 S
T2m 20-90 N Tropics 90-20 S
41.2 14.6 39.1
3.23 1.48 5.34
2.23 1.26 2.41
40.5 12.1 40.3
3.06 1.50 5.39
2.59 1.47 2.79
0.056 0.040 0.126
0.060 0.319 0.131
0.102 0.301 0.140
0.042 0.030 0.123
0.069 0.430 0.128
0.085 0.328 0.095
27.6 6.3 27.6
2.11 0.68 2.62
1.37 0.60 1.26
27.4 5.7 27.4
2.05 0.57 2.61
1.40 0.53 1.28
Averaged over summer 2010 observed T2m anomaly, as a deviation from 1989-2010 summers according to NASA (http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/).
The same anomaly with respect to model climate in SL-AV with simple extrapolation of SST anomaly (upper right). The same anomaly in coupled
model (lower right).
Further work on coupled model for seasonal forecasts
Trying to refine initial condition in soil (own assimilation of 2m variables).
Trying CLIRAD SW radiation parameterization. Likely switching to ERA-Interim reanalyses for
hindcasts. Numerical experiments using ocean data
assimilation system developed in Hydrometcentre of Russia.
Using higher resolution ocean model, more sophisticated ice model.
Climate studies in Russia in 2011 (Institute of Numerical Mathematics RAS) 1. CMIP5 runs with INMCM model are completed. 2. Simulation of climate in 1900-2100 with
atmosphere-ocean-chemistry-carbon cycle model is completed.
3. Simulation of geoengineering with sulfate aerosols at the end of 21 century is completed.
4. Coupled atmosphere – ocean model with resolution in atmosphere 1.25°x1°xL21 and resolution in ocean 0.167°x0.125°xL40 is constructed.
Plans for 2012: p. 4) with 50 levels in atmosphere.
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