Reaching for Opportunity · bachelor's degree attainment change Washington D.C. 1 69.67%...

Reaching for Opportunity

An Action Plan to Increase Michigan’s Postsecondary Credential Attainment

Michigan House Appropriations Subcommittee

November 5, 2015

John Austin, President Michigan State Board of Education

Exhibit 9: Per Capita Income, Educational Attainment in Michigan and Top 10 States

State Rank

% of Population

Bachelor's or

Higher Degree

2013 Per

Capita

Personal

Income

7 year average

income change

relative to U.S.

average

7 year average

bachelor's degree

attainment change

Washington D.C. 1 69.67% $75,329 49.48% -

Massachusetts 2 48.46% $57,248 15.02% 7.53%

New York 3 42.22% $54,462 26.75% 0.73%

New Jersey 4 41.72% $55,386 -1.59% -32.05%

Connecticut 5 39.96% $60,658 1.17% -19.03%

Maryland 6 39.52% $53,826 -3.33% -6.19%

Virginia 7 38.90% $48,838 -4.10% 12.14%

Vermont 8 38.50% $45,483 20.97% 45.05%

Illinois 9 38.37% $46,980 -4.08% 26.70%

Michigan 32 29.56% $39,055 -24.39% -27.66%

U.S. Average 32.22% $44,765

In 2015 - One thing remains true: Nothing is more important to our people and our state’s economy than postsecondary education attainment in all forms…

We are well behind the Top 10 States in Postsecondary Credential Attainment. 46% of our working population (25-64) have a degree or certificate that helps them navigate the economy…

10.6%17.2%

13.5%17.8%

9.6% 11.2% 12.5% 13.3% 11.2%14.4%

10.1% 11.0%

19.0%

22.3%25.0%

24.6%

19.7%

24.3% 21.6% 21.3%21.1%

24.6%

17.5%19.6%

7.7%

8.0% 9.0%8.1%

11.6%

12.1%8.4% 10.2%

9.0%

6.8%

9.8%8.8%

23.0%

12.0% 12.0% 8.0%

17.1%10.0%

10.3% 7.8%10.7%

5.7%

7.5%8.8%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

Certificates*

Associates Degree

Bachelors Degree

Graduate Degree

SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau 2012 American Community Survey*The estimates were computed based on a 2010 report by Complete College America entitled “Certificates Count”. The complete report can be found www.completecollege.org.

Eleven years ago bi-partisan stakeholders -- business, higher education, education, labor, gov’t—came together and

made recommendations to do better

Leading to some major changes:

Michigan Merit Curriculum and Assessment Michigan Merit Scholarship

Community Compacts for Postsecondary Attainment (K’zoo and other “Promises”-Michigan College Access Network)

CEPI extended to Longitudinal Performance Data SystemExpansion of Early/Middle Colleges

Return to Learn – No Worker Left Behind21st Century Innovation Fund

Some stuck, Others did not – But we didn’t have an organized effort to keep pushing the agenda…

Last year stakeholders voluntarily came together to help make and execute a new Postsecondary Credential Attainment roadmap…

• Michigan Independent Colleges & Universities

• Business Leaders for Michigan (BLM)

• Kalamazoo Promise

• Michigan Association of School Administrators (MASA)

• Michigan Association of Secondary School Principals(MASSP)

• Michigan College Access Network (MCAN)

• Michigan Community College Association (MCCA) – Michigan Center for Student Success (MCSS)

• Michigan Department of Education (MDE)

• AFT Michigan

• Office of Governor Snyder

• Michigan Association of State Universities (MASU)

• State Legislators

• Talent 2025 – Detroit Regional Chamber

• State Board of Education

• Michigan Workforce Development Agency

• Michigan Economic Development Corporation (MEDC)

• Help from Kresge, Lumina, W.K. Kellogg Foundations

We looked hard at our workforce needs - to join the top 10 states and equip our people with the degrees, certificates or other occupational credentials that are needed in the labor market of tomorrow… We need to reach a goal of 60% by 2025 of our adults with these valuable credentials.

SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau 2012 American Community Survey• The certificate estimates here include occupational certificates plus other workforce valuable sub-associate credentials (industry certifications,

apprenticeships, licensures) • ** This goal was calculated using a report by the center for Education and the Workforce which can be found here: https://cew.georgetown.edu/wp-

content/uploads/StateProjections_6.1.15_agc_v2.pdf

To figure out how to get there we took a hard look at our state and its people

Our state is aging….

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Western UP Prosperity Region

Central UP Prosperity Region

Eastern UP Prosperity Region

Northwest Prosperity Region

Northeast Prosperity Region

West Central Prosperity Region

West Michigan Prosperity Region

East Central Michigan Prosperity Region

East Michigan Prosperity Region

South Central Prosperity Region

Southwest Prosperity Region

Southeast Michigan Prosperity Region

Detroit Metro Prosperity Region

Michigan

22.1%

22.0%

21.3%

22.9%

20.0%

24.9%

27.8%

24.5%

25.4%

25.7%

25.8%

25.3%

25.7%

25.5%

19.2%

18.2%

19.5%

16.1%

13.3%

17.7%

20.5%

20.0%

17.1%

24.3%

20.1%

20.5%

18.9%

19.3%

37.9%

40.7%

41.1%

41.3%

41.7%

38.9%

38.6%

38.8%

41.4%

36.9%

38.6%

40.2%

41.2%

40.1%

20.7%

19.0%

18.0%

19.7%

25.0%

18.6%

13.1%

16.7%

16.1%

13.1%

15.5%

13.9%

14.3%

15.0%

Age rates among Michigan residents, 2013

0-19 20-34 35-64 65-

We have fewer young people and new entrants to the pipeline; and too often we aren’t keeping our young

talent

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

Age rate change among Michigan residents, 2000-2013

0-19

20-34

35-64

65-

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

30.00%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2010 2011 2012

And more than most states– and all the top ten states– we have more people aged 25-64 already in the workforce, with

Some College, No Degree

Michigan

U.S.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Michigan White Black Hispanic Asian NativeAmerican

Degree-attainment 38% 40% 24% 23% 69% 22%

We have big attainment gaps by race, but almost all groups are behind where they need to be to join the

ranks of Top 10 states

Target: 44%

So how are we going to hit this 60% goal by 2025? We need to move some metrics that matter to

ultimate credential attainment

• Yes we need to keep building up early childhood investment as an important foundation stone

• And yes we do we need to improve performance in K-12 to prepare learners better for postsecondary!

• Our recommendations focused on how we are doing, and how we move performance affecting:

– Participation in Postsecondary

– Completion and Success in Postsecondary

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Michigan White Black Hispanic Asian NativeAmerican

Low-Income

Need Remediation 27% 23% 52% 39% 14% 33% 42%

To enhance participation we examined issues like: Are they ready?

Of those enrolling directly in college, percentage needing remediation

Are adults ready for postsecondary success… Michigan Community College Students Who Require Developmental Courses

SOURCE: MI Governor’s Dashboard (https://midashboard.michigan.gov/education)

54%

55%

56%

57%

58%

59%

60%

61%

62%

63%

64%

2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13

Exhibit 10: FAFSA Completion Rates by State

SOURCE: This graphic is from The Quick & the Ed and their data came from the U.S. Department of Education. Details on their method can be found here: http://www.quickanded.com/2013/07/fafsa-completion-rates-vary-by-state.html.

Did they get the guidance, counseling and help to pursue postsecondary? Share of enrolled seniors completing FAFSA

57.958.7

51.1

58.8

65.2

59.961.9

50

55

60

65

70

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Michigan

Nation

SOURCE: The Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS)

Are high school students immediately enrolling in Postsecondary education.. which ups chances they will

complete? Updated number - 69% are.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Michigan White Black Hispanic Asian NativeAmerican

Degree-attainment 70% 72% 62% 56% 84% 56%

But getting to postsecondary right away doesn’t happen for everyone…

Class of 2013 College Enrollment Rates, by subgroup

Target: 80%

0%10%20%

30%40%

50%60%70%

80%

Michigan White Black Hispanic Asian NativeAmerican

Low-Income

2-Year 41% 40% 50% 54% 25% 40% 53%

4-Year 59% 60% 50% 46% 75% 60% 47%

And it’s Community Colleges getting Black, Hispanic, and Low-income high school grads…the hardest to complete

Those enrolling in college (Class of 2013), going to a 2-year versus a 4-year, by subgroup?

2-Year 4-Year

51.00%

52.00%

53.00%

54.00%

55.00%

56.00%

57.00%

58.00%

59.00%

60.00%

61.00%

62.00%

2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13

Exhibit 23. University Graduation Rate vs. National Average

Michigan

U.S.

We looked at how we were doing in helping learners complete credentials? Our universities are doing a better thanaverage job….

And Michigan’s Community College’s performance (assessed properly) is showing impressive progress with the hardest-to-complete learners…

Michigan Community College Completion/Graduation/Transfer Rate

SOURCE: MI Governor’s Dashboard (https://midashboard.michigan.gov/education)

40%

42%

44%

46%

48%

50%

52%

54%

2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13

But behind this improving performance are stubborn achievement gaps among different populations

Good University completion rates mask gaps (and vary a lot by school)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Total White Black Asian Hispanic American Indian

University Graduation Rates By Race

4-Year GraduationRates

6-Year GraduationRates

What policies and practices move the needed and help us reach our 60% goal? Workgroup looked at our own and other state practices to inform…

A New Policy Agenda for Postsecondary Credential AttainmentBased on what’s working, and research and analysis of effective high-yield strategies, the workgroup makes recommendations in three areas:

• Increasing Postsecondary Participation

• Ensuring Completion and Success

• Strategic Success Enablers: information, strategic financing, and an ongoing group to guide efforts

Increasing Postsecondary Participation

For Youth:

• Enhanced Guidance, Guidance Capacity, Information & College Access Support

• Early Assessment and Remediation

• Simplified, Expanded Financial Aid to get MI to top 10

• Change Rules, Policies and Financing to dramatically expand Early Postsecondary Credit-taking & CTE

Increasing Postsecondary Participation

For Adults:• New Michigan Adult Training Scholarship up to 2

years of CC – technical training in regionally determined occupations

• User friendly, information, navigation, postsecondary education promotion tool

• Expand Adult Trades, Apprenticeship and Skill programs

• Bring together ABE and basic skill building with CC credentialing programs

Ensuring Postsecondary Completion and Success

• User friendly, information, navigation, postsecondary education promotion tools

• Streamlining transfer of credits and credentials

• Completion Innovation Incentives

• Enhance Higher Ed Institutional Success Structures and Strategies (MCSS & analog for Universities)

• Keep pushing Reverse Transfer, Project Win-win

Strategic Success Enablers

Support a public-private collaborative to drive attention and action on ongoing basis (Michigan Higher Education Partnership Council?)Improve performance information to guide system: • Incorporate progress and success metrics called

for in report• Extend to include school, and

workforce/employment outcome data in longitudinal system

• Package information to help regions, institutions to hit goals

Strategic Success Enablers

Invest Strategically: Michigan needs a strategy for funding higher ed that supports goal:• Simplified and increased financial aid to reach top 10; adult

training scholarship with bundled workforce resources

• Continue budget priority to increase institutional support CC’s and Universities

• Strategic investments in high-yield policies called for in report:• Michigan School Counselor Reinvestment Program

• Michigan College Access Network (MCAN) support

• Customer Friendly Information Tools, Guidance and Transfer Portal

• Enhanced funding for Early Postsecondary/CTE Credit Earning models

• Completion-Institutional Success Strategy Competitive Grant

• Extensions to CEPI – State Longitudinal Data System