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TETRAD i3 Inc.
Mobile Early Warning, Intervention andResponse to Nuclear Terrakts
October 19, 2004
WashingtonBoca Raton
Moscow
Copyright 2004 TETRAD I3 Inc. 2
Our Starting Points
• Terrorism is a network phenomenon, not only a “hydra” but a culture with viralattributes
• Technology must be assumed to be completely available to the terrorist and is nolonger an issue of “can it come from former WMD centers or supplies” or is it beingdone in a rogue state camp. US, CA, UK, NL, FR, DE, RU, JP are not “roguestates” but have been basing and staging operations for techno-terrorists.
• Radiation terrorism and the “RDD” is a very attractive modality because it is one ofthe most effective for social-economic-political (SEP) destabilizationEVEN IF THE BOMB KILLS NO ONE
• The likeliest targets for an RDD are those with the highest SEP disruption value
• The likeliest process of assembling an RDD involves multiple trips, parts,components and is absolutely unlikely to be a classic single-source for theradioactive component
• The most effective and deployed preventive countermeasures should also providefirst-responder value and vice versa
Copyright 2004 TETRAD I3 Inc. 3
Nomad Eyes™ and Asymmetric ThinkingApplied to Asymmetric Threats
• Applying the model and methods of terrorism thinking and principles of actionINVERSELY to develop countermeasures that are:
• rapidly and easily deployable (today, not after two years of $$ R&D)• robust but very flexible and fault-tolerant• low-cost, low-tech, easy-to-use, disposable technology where it counts - in the
street and neighborhoods• engages and uses the victims themselves (the general population, “us”)• extensible and reconfigurable as new sensing capabilities evolve (e.g., chem, rad)• usable today as a testing platform in the real-world to build better
countermeasures in the future• disruptive and unpredictable in the eyes of the terrorists - an “enemy in the dark”
to which they cannot know where, when, or how to respond
Copyright 2004 TETRAD I3 Inc. 4
Examination of Terrorist Methods “inside out”and Means of Employing the Victims and Targets for Defense
You can’t take this on a plane or intomany buildings
You can take these almost anywhere.
So do they.
THIS was the key weapon for 9-11and for АВТОЗАВОДСКАЯ
It is also one of the key defenses.When These
Turn Into Those.
Copyright 2004 TETRAD I3 Inc. 5
Value of Mobile Wireless Portable and Handheld Netsfor an Asymmetric, Dynamic Countermeasure System
For Rad Terrorism but also for othertypes and necessarily looking for all,not only one Mobile units using both cellular and
wireless internet/intranets
Freeform but adhering to industrystandards
Incorporating the General Public
Incorporating the commercial sector(advertising and consumer products)
Asynchronous, Atypical, Asymmetric Sensor Fusion
Copyright 2004 TETRAD I3 Inc. 6
Terrorism and Hunting Elephants1. It is hard to miss hitting an elephant even with apoor weapon
2. It is hard to kill one with inadequate technology
3. When the son or grandson of some unfortunatehunter grows up, he will seek out the Big One with avengeance, for a trophy-kill born out of revenge for hisfather’s demise
4. He will take the time to consider innovativetechnology and tactics
America and Russia are classic examples of“Elephant” Targets for Rad and other Substance-Based TerrorismExtensive Surface, Open Borders despite border-controlcountermeasures
Extensive Commerce that cannot be halted or curtailed
Different types of open traffic to and within
Extensive non-reducible non-military nuclear industry
Well-established in-country operating front-line enemy bases
Open, non-reducible communications infrastructure availablefor the enemy
Copyright 2004 TETRAD I3 Inc. 7
But where are the likely targets and means?
In the public mind’s-eye and Angst
And the less-likely form for many reasons
Psycho-Shock is the Aim andNuclear Radiation is Powerfuleven in non-lethal doses
Mass-dispersion withuncertain contact anddegree will create themost widespread fears
Copyright 2004 TETRAD I3 Inc. 8
Targets
OBJECTIVES similar/different
MOTIVES different but complementary
TARGETS different/similar
Consider only the two main targets
Harm an ethnic enemy
Harm largest numbers
Create fear in the largest numbers
Disrupt mass transportation
Destabilize government
Focus on popular (transport)infrastructure
Disrupt economy
Create dramatic shocks that diminishconfidence in govt’s ability to protect
Create logistic/information network havoc
Create electorate unrest, instability
Destabilize government
Focus on economic infrastructure
Copyright 2004 TETRAD I3 Inc. 9
RDD in the context of conventional attacks
• Most likely choice is with massive dispersion through conventional+inflammatoryattack
• Spread the most compounds in the most uncertain paths among the largestnumber of possible affected victims
• Affect the maximum number of structures including transportation routes
• Aim for closure and disruption of normal use/traffic - it does not have to be foryears, just months or weeks
• Multiple small disruptive attacks easier and more effective than one block-buster
Considering SEP Disruption and Destabilization as the “prime-directive” ofterrorist organizations capable/active in planning RDD and chem-bio tactics
Copyright 2004 TETRAD I3 Inc. 10
Nomad Eyes™ Architecture and Principles (I)
Prevention by Detection of the Planning Operation
Movement of multiple types of components, not only RAD substances
Time-matching and space-matching of logically connective, supportive events
“Sensor Fusion” of the Unordinary (Необычный) Kind -Tracer RAD readings perhaps not individually remarkablePhotos of suspicious individuals and vehicles that have some “matches”Exceptional shipping orders, out-of-sequence, special-route, handlingParallel transit/shipment/transaction of non-contraband components useful in an RDD
Goal toward Inverse Reasoning and Abductive Assimilation with other KBs / Xsys
Fall-Back Value: Emergency public alerts and First-Responder capabilities
Copyright 2004 TETRAD I3 Inc. 11
Nomad Eyes™ Architecture and Principles (II)
EVENT !
EVENT !
Class (x) objects received by servers resultsin generation of n graphs representinghypothetical x y… relational maps; themajority are discarded, but events of interesttrigger feedback to both autonomous andhuman-based nodes for additional collectionand reorienting. No node or subset of nodesis reliant and the whole may be considered asa dynamic-geometry cellular automata.
Copyright 2004 TETRAD I3 Inc. 12
MIMD, ETL, ADaM, MENE, Gaming
Data collection and sensor communication based upon classic MIMD parallel processing
♦ Fault tolerance, fail-safe♦ Load balancing♦ Doesn’t communicate? Go to the next/nearest available
Agent-enabled Extract-Transfer-Load processing from classic VLDB technology
♦ Up to 2K rows/sec, 80M rows/day♦ Graph-theoretic architecture adapts well with semantic maps, topic maps, fuzzy logic♦ Agents trigger DB queries in DW, others DBs, notifications to authorities, public
MENE - Morphic Exploratory Navigational Environments
♦ For authorities and responders - high-res 3D Adobe Atmosphere VR worlds♦ For the general public - reduced-scale/detail navigation via cell phones♦ GPS-enabled or not
Turning self-protection and communal security into a Game to get People Active
♦ Implicit, subtle educational-value mobile phone games with contests♦ MIT collaborators - Comparative Media Studies (Klopfer, Jenkins et al)♦ Get attention, participation, and free pertinent data with Positive Reinforcement
Copyright 2004 TETRAD I3 Inc. 13
ADaM is Fast
0
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1 4 0 0 0
1 6 0 0 0
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mp
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ixed
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T yp ica l F a stlo a d
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P e a k F a stlo a d
P e a k T p u m p
P e a k F stld & T p u m p
T ra n sp a re n t F a stL
T ra n sp a re n t T p u m p
S p e cia l F a stL
"K itch e n S in k"
P e a k E T L
Copyright 2004 TETRAD I3 Inc. 14
And This is Why
ETL Set (withETLPs)
ETL Set (withETLPs)
Actor objects(nodes)
ETLPs (withactors)
ADaM exec(program)
00
+
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P_graph of ETLP (5)
P_graph of Exec(1)
P_graph of ETLS (2)
Copyright 2004 TETRAD I3 Inc. 15
Tidewater -- Newport-Norfolk (I)
Copyright 2004 TETRAD I3 Inc. 16
Tidewater -- Newport-Norfolk (II)
7,400 of @ 400K importers account for more than 80% of imports to USA
Prior to 9/11/2001, less than 2% of 6,000,000 containers inspected
Port Name Tons (1,000's) [2002 stats]
Norfolk Harbor 27,901,354
Newport News 11,300,962
Dual Vulnerability, Dual Terrakt Strategies
(1) Ship-in, use elsewhere (e.g., NYC, Washington)
(2) Disrupt the Port
Suez-class cranes, @ 70m length
Forty 50-ton containers per hour - capacity
Copyright 2004 TETRAD I3 Inc. 17
Port of Baltimore
2M+ residents in Baltimore and surrounding urban center
Main East-Coast rail and interstate highways traverse region
> 30M tons per year, mainly containers
Copyright 2004 TETRAD I3 Inc. 18
Today’s consumer-class RAD components
Our simple conversion with Nomad Eyes™
Li-ion
Rad-sensor element
A/D logic Nomadiksor
othermProc
Existing mobile phonelogic
Interface logic to wireless internet
Copyright 2004 TETRAD I3 Inc. 19
Deployment - Where and How
• Static but ad-hoc– Passage locations and nexus points for cargo and transfer vehicles– Likeliest places but not limited to one configuration
• Pseudo-random
• Personal mobile units– Assigned to staff personnel– Personal cell phones
• Unpredictable - a “two-edged sword” that cuts in in favor of the Defenders– Inverse predictive models can be applied better to the data “mass”– Al Qaeda (or “X”) cannot predict where are our eyes and ears
• Sun Tzu (“Art of War”) - Always Make Your Enemy NervousNervous
Copyright 2004 TETRAD I3 Inc. 20
More on Compound Eyes
Multiple TYPES of sensor data
Multiple INSTANCES at multiple TIMES
INVERSE Methods applied “as if” in surface/subsurface imaging:
the task is to find what events and processes may be the modifiers ofknown or deducible behaviors
USING
•Abductive rules
•Bayesian probabilistic inference
•Fuzzy inference
•Heuristics and “common sense” rules
For all the value of sophisticated detectors, an “outlier” element or two could make all the difference:
Requests for building or water/sewer line plans Repeat-visits of unusual vehicle or people
“Non-sequitur” orders of shielding-quality materials Unusual change in shipping order or pickup
Copyright 2004 TETRAD I3 Inc. 21
Our Technology Focus:Inverse, Nonlinear, Counter-Intuitive (sometimes)
Source
The Object causes diffusion and scattering of the Beam but the laws governing propagation and movement indifferent media are known or can be ascertained. Working backwards from the Result, one computes andestimates the Object on the bsais of how the Beam must have changed in order to produce the Result instead of apattern, computable, for what there would have been if no Object had been present. Now, transfer this InverseModel ought of imaging and into the world of semiotics and intensions. Now, one can do inverse thinking fromsomething Sensed and Observed, in actuality, to determine what were some of the intervening steps and processesout of the usual and ordinary process that would have produced something different, most likely less complex.
Copyright 2004 TETRAD I3 Inc. 22
Making Sense of the Data (I)
• Basic diffusion equation - usable as starting point for inverse problems
• Time-transition is accomplished in Fourier domain
• Transition backwards in time requires amplification of high frequencycomponents - most likely to be noisy and skewed
tu
kxu
∂∂
=∂∂ 1
2
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∑∞
=
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axnxf
af
an
π= ∫ sin)(2
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=
π−
π=
1sin),(
2
n
tankn a
neftxu Parti
cula
r cre
dits
- R
oger
Duf
our,
MIT
Copyright 2004 TETRAD I3 Inc. 23
Making Sense of the Data (II)
Parti
cula
r cre
dits
- R
oger
Duf
our,
MIT
• Heuristic and a priori constraints needed to maintain physical realism andsuppress distortions from inverse process
• First-pass solution best match or interpolation among a set of acceptablealternatives
• Final solution may minimize the residual error and the regularization term
Xx s.t. yAxxx
∈−= minargˆ
2
2
2
2)(minargˆ xxLyAxx
x−λ+−=
Regularization offers fidelity to the observed data and an a priori determined (e.g., higher-scale-observed) solution model
Copyright 2004 TETRAD I3 Inc. 24
Making Sense of the Data (III)
• Diffusion _ Attraction• Modeling situations and schemas
as composite “images” in n-D• Iterative process with
exploration of parallel tree paths– Speculative track; not required
for Nomad Eyes sensor fusionto be useful to analysts
– Purpose is to enable automationof the analysis and forecastingpost-collection process
– Area of active current research
Parti
cula
r cre
dits
- J.
P. T
hirio
n, IN
RIA
Copyright 2004 TETRAD I3 Inc. 25
Making Sense of the Data (IV) - I3BAT
Sensor 1 Sensor 2
Property 1
Background
Property 3
Property 2
• Multiple modalities– Acoustic, EM, Optical, Text,
NLP, SQL, AI-reasoning…• All looking at the same topic of
interest (aka “region”)• Each sensitive to different
physical/logical properties– “Trigger” data– Contiguity (space/time)– Inference relations– “Hits” with conventional DB
queries (immigration, knownassociations, otherinvestigations)
• Compare with Terrorist CadreTactic models (schemas, maps)Particular credits - Eric Miller, NEU
Copyright 2004 TETRAD I3 Inc. 26
Public involvement, education, gaming
Citizen Corps concept
Educational Games
Flexible E-Paper (FOLED) Commerciali$m
Volunteer Activists
Children, adults
Individual, team
Public kiosks, signs Contests, ads, prizesrelated to games
Copyright 2004 TETRAD I3 Inc. 27
First Responder Capability as well
Notify Maximum Numbers of People ASAP after Terrakt
Redirect Survivors
Keep Other People Away
Assist People Finding Loved Ones
Provide Essential Life-Saving Information Real-Time
Coordinate and Inform First-Responder Teams
Locations of People
Active Sensor Array including useful data from public
Coordinate with volunteers
Copyright 2004 TETRAD I3 Inc. 28
Current Status
Corporate-partnerships
IRAD program
I3BAT Phase 1
ADaM prototype completed
OpenNet prototype completed
Collaboratory prototype completed
Developments with US federal, state homeland security programs
Nomad Eyes Global “Peace Proliferation”
Copyright 2004 TETRAD I3 Inc. 29
Acknowledgements
• J. P. Thirion (INRIA, France)• Roger Dufour (MIT, USA)• Eric Klopfer, Henry Jenkins (MIT, USA)• Eric Miller (NEU, USA)• Center for Surface and Subsurface Imaging
and Sensing• ST Microelectronics, SA• Adobe Corporation
Copyright 2004 TETRAD I3 Inc. 30
A tetrahedron is the strongest and moststable natural geometrical structure
In business and finance as wellas in math and science
HealthcareDisease MgtHealthNVest
ClinicalTherapy
I3DIT
PersonalHealth
BioScan
HomelandSecurity
Nomad Eyes I3Integrative
InverseIntelligence
1+1+1+1 = More -----------------The S4 Synergy
Copyright 2004 TETRAD I3 Inc. 31
Contacts
• Martin J. Dudziak, PhD (Technology)– (954) 545-4500– +7-926-530-1211 or +7-095-172-6369 Moscow (GMT +3)
– martin@forteplan.com (also mjdudziak@yahoo.com)
• Brent A. Kish (Contracts)– (954) 545-4500– (954) 614-4172– brent@forteplan.com
• Tamara F. Koval, MD (Project Mgr; Int’l Relations)– (804) 647-0374– tamara@forteplan.com
TETRAD I3 Inc., 1206 NW 45 St., Pompano Beach FL 33064
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