View
224
Download
3
Category
Preview:
Citation preview
7 February 2018
Chief Executive Officer
Steve Binnie
Sappi Limited
Q1 FY18 financial results delivering on
strategy
2018
Vision2020
intentionalevolution
next phase
growth
1
Forward-looking statements and Regulation G
2
Forward-looking statementsCertain statements in this release that are neither reported financial results nor other historical information, are forward-looking statements, including but not limited to statements that are predictions ofor indicate future earnings, savings, synergies, events, trends, plans or objectives. The words “believe”, “anticipate”, “expect”, “intend”, “estimate”, “plan”, “assume”, “positioned”, “will”, “may”, “should”,“risk” and other similar expressions, which are predictions of or indicate future events and future trends and which do not relate to historical matters, identify forward-looking statements. In addition, thisdocument includes forward-looking statements relating to our potential exposure to various types of market risks, such as interest rate risk, foreign exchange rate risk and commodity price risk. Youshould not rely on forward-looking statements because they involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which are in some cases beyond our control and may cause our actualresults, performance or achievements to differ materially from anticipated future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements (and from past results,performance or achievements). Certain factors that may cause such differences include but are not limited to:
The highly cyclical nature of the pulp and paper industry (and the factors that contribute to such cyclicality, such as levels of demand, production capacity, production, input costs including rawmaterial, energy and employee costs, and pricing)
The impact on our business of adverse changes in global economic conditions Unanticipated production disruptions (including as a result of planned or unexpected power outages) Changes in environmental, tax and other laws and regulations Adverse changes in the markets for our products The emergence of new technologies and changes in consumer trends including increased preferences for digital media Consequences of our leverage, including as a result of adverse changes in credit markets that affect our ability to raise capital when needed Adverse changes in the political situation and economy in the countries in which we operate or the effect of governmental efforts to address present or future economic or social problems The impact of restructurings, investments, acquisitions, dispositions and other strategic initiatives (including related financing), any delays, unexpected costs or other problems experienced in
connection with dispositions or with integrating acquisitions or implementing restructurings or other strategic initiatives, and achieving expected savings and synergies, and Currency fluctuations.
We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any of these forward-looking statements, whether to reflect new information or future events or circumstances or otherwise.
Regulation G disclosureCertain non-GAAP financial information is contained in this presentation that management believe may be useful in comparing the company’s operating results from period to period. Reconciliation's ofcertain of the non-GAAP measures to the corresponding GAAP measures can be found in the quarterly results booklet for the relevant period. These booklets are available on our website:https://www.sappi.com/quarterly-reports.
3
Summary
Highlights
EBITDA ex-special items: US$172m (Q1 FY17: US$181m like-for-like)
Profit for the period: US$63m (Q1 FY17: US$90m)
EPS ex-special items: 14 US cents (Q1 FY17: 16 US cents)
Net debt: US$1,349m (Q1 FY17: US$1,338)
Q1 FY18
4
EBITDA and operating profitExcluding special items*
5
* Refer to the supplementary information in this presentation for a reconciliation of EBITDA to reported operating profit and page 18 in our Q1 FY18 financial results booklet (available on www.sappi.com) for a definition of special items.
175
201
172
112
136
105
0
50
100
150
200
250
Q1 FY16 Q1 FY17 Q1 FY18
US$
milli
on
EBITDA Operating profit
Key ratios Q1 FY16 Q1 FY17 Q1 FY18
Net debt/LTM EBITDA 2.6 1.7 1.8
Interest cover 5.1 7.7 9.9
EBITDA % 13.6 15.4 12.9
ROCE % 16.2 19.5 13.5
EBITDA bridge*Q1 FY17 to Q1 FY18
6
All variances calculated excluding Sappi Forests.'Exchange rate' reflects the impact of changes in the average rates of translation of foreign currency results.* Refer to the supplementary information in this presentation for a reconciliation of EBITDA to reported operating profit and page 18 in our Q1 FY18 financial results booklet (available on www.sappi.com) for a definition of special items.
201
12
9
8
6 33
172
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
EBITDAQ1 FY17
Sales volume Price and mix Variable anddelivery costs
Fixed costs Other Exchange rate EBITDAQ1 FY18
US$
milli
on Sales revenue
Product contribution split - LTM
7
* Refer to the supplementary information in this presentation for a reconciliation of EBITDA to reported operating profit and page 18 in our Q1 FY18 financial results booklet (available on www.sappi.com) for a definition of special items. Data above excludes treasury operations and insurance captive.
49%
16%
35%SpecialisedCellulosePackaging &SpecialitiesPrinting papers
63%16%
21%
EBITDA excluding special items Operating profit excluding special items
Maturity profileFiscal years
8
618
7025 26 39 38
553
433
57
221
390
4093
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2032
US$
milli
on
Cash Short-term SPH term debt Securitisation SSA
EUR450m bond
EUR350m bond
US$221m bond
Capex development
9
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E
US$
milli
on
Maintenance Efficiency and expansion
Saiccor expansion capex subject to EIA approval
10
Divisional overview
Global P&W paper market trends
11
Supply and demand Robust export markets for European producers – less competition from Asian producers Capacity closures in North America – 15% reduction in local supply
Selling prices and input costs Coated paper prices rising globally, further increases in Europe and North America
announced. Variable costs pressure, especially paper pulp and latex. Lag effect between pulp and paper prices squeezing margins.
Strategy Conversion of coated capacity to packaging in line with coated demand declines. Investments at key mills/machines to lower costs Procurement and efficiency programs to further reduce costs.
Global S&PP market trends
12
Supply and demand Growing trends driven by legislation and environment to encourage more paper based
packaging Speciality packaging paper long-term demand continues to grow 1-5%, more recently well
above this. Strong virgin fiber packaging demand in South Africa
Selling prices and input costs Export price increases announced to offset Euro strengthening
Strategy Conversion of coated capacity to packaging in line with packaging growth R&D investment to expand product offering and applications Procurement and efficiency programs to further reduce costs. Acquisition of Cham paper – complementary and new products
Global DWP market trends
13
Supply and demand Continued strong demand from new viscose capacity. New market DWP capacity likely in 2019 – limited capacity addition 2018. Some swing mills revert to BHK pulp production due to high paper pulp pricing
Selling prices and input costs DWP market prices rise heading into Chinese New Year Polyester and cotton prices have risen, VSF pricing recovering slowly due to low operating rates Paper pulp prices increased – more attractive for swing capacity.
Strategy Maintain low-cost position. Continue working with customers to support common growth. Debottlenecking mills – to add 90kt. Expansion of Saiccor by 110kt subject to EIA approval Long-term growth opportunities, both internal and external.
Solid performance, strong export volumes and price realisation on local graphics sales Input costs continue to rise, particularly paper pulp and latex Specialities volumes up 9% (normalised) Variable and fixed costs were both 2% higher.
14
Sappi Europe
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
0
20
40
60
80
100
Q1 FY15 Q1 FY16 Q1 FY17 Q1 FY18
Eur
mill
ion
EBITDA* EBITDA Margin*
* EBITDA and EBITDA margin shown exclude special items. Refer to the supplementary information in this presentation for a reconciliation of EBITDA to reported operating profit and page 18 in our Q1 FY18 financial results booklet (available on www.sappi.com) for a definition of special items.
600
700
800
900
Jan-
17
Feb-
17
Mar
-17
Apr
-17
May
-17
Jun-
17
Jul-1
7
Aug
-17
Sep
-17
Oct
-17
Nov
-17
Dec
-17
Jan-
18
Feb-
18
BHKP Europe (EUR) CWF-S 100g, Germany
Volumes were lower on production challenges and ongoing capital projects at Somerset. Average realised coated paper prices rose, more expected in coming quarter Increased DWP sales volumes, lower pricing however Extended shut for woodyard and PM1 conversion – additional US$6m impact in the quarter
15
Sappi North America
* EBITDA and EBITDA margin shown exclude special items. Refer to the supplementary information in this presentation for a reconciliation of EBITDA to reported operating profit and page 18 in our Q1 FY18 financial results booklet (available on www.sappi.com) for a definition of special items.** Source: RISI
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
0
10
20
30
40
Q1 FY15 Q1 FY16 Q1 FY17 Q1 FY18
US
$ m
illio
n
EBITDA* EBITDA Margin*
800
820
840
860
880
900
920No 3 Coated freesheet - 60 lb (90g) rolls US$/ton - US East**
Strong packaging paper demand Increased sales volumes and pricing for newsprint and office papers. Realised US$ prices for DWP were lower and ZAR strength impacted margins - spot prices have
risen since quarter-end. Costs well controlled, higher energy costs offset by reduced fiber usage.
16
Sappi Southern Africa
* EBITDA and EBITDA margin shown exclude special items. Refer to the supplementary information in this presentation for a reconciliation of EBITDA to reported operating profit and page 18 in our Q1 FY18 financial results booklet (available on www.sappi.com) for a definition of special items.** Source: CCF
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
Q1 FY15 Q1 FY16 Q1 FY17 Q1 FY18
ZAR
mill
ion
EBITDA* EBITDA Margin*
775.00
800.00
825.00
850.00
875.00
900.00
925.00
950.00
975.00
1000.00China market price – Hardwood DWP (US$/ton)**
Maintaina healthybalancesheet
Rationalisedeclining
businesses
Accelerategrowth in
high marginproducts
Achievecost
advantages
Improveoperational
and machineefficiencies
Maximiseprocurement
benefits Optimisebusiness
processes
Continuouslybalance
paper supplyand demandin all regions
Wherepossible
convert papermachines tohigher marginbusinesses
Optimiseworkingcapital
Strongcash
generationSmart
financing
Expandpaper
packaginggrades
Enhancespecialised celluloseportfolio
Extractvalue from our
biorefinerystream
Our group strategy
17
At Sappi we do business with integrity and courage; making smart decisions which we execute with speed.Our values are underpinned by an unrelenting focus on and commitment to safety.
Achievecost
advantages
Improveoperational
and machine efficiencies
Maximiseprocurement
benefitsOptimisebusiness
processes
Our group strategy
18
We work to lower fixed and variable costs, increase cost efficiencies and invest for cost advantages. Group efficiency and procurement initiatives
US$60m target for 2018. Ongoing continuous improvement across all mills. US$50m investment in Saiccor Mill woodyard. €30m upgrade to Gratkorn PM9
Rationalisedeclining
businesses
Continuouslybalance
paper supplyand demand in all regions
Wherepossible
convert paper machines tohigher margin
businesses
Our group strategy
19
Recognising the decreasing demand for graphic paper, we manage our capacity to strengthen our leadership position in these markets, realising their strategic importance to the group and maximising their significant cash flow generation. Progressive transition of Lanaken Mill out of LWC. Reduced CWF exposure at Maastricht Mill, Ehingen
Mill and Somerset Mill PM1. Conversion of Somerset PM1 and Maastricht Mill
Maintaina healthybalancesheet
Optimiseworkingcapital
Strongcash
generationSmart
financing
Our group strategy
20
Maintain leverage below 2x Net debt:EBITDA US$400m 2017 bonds called in April 2017. US$21m in net finance cost savings/annum.
Refinancing and debt reduction leads to lower finance cost - US$60-70m/annum going forward - and EPS growth.
Accelerategrowth in
high marginproducts
Extractvalue from our
biorefinerystream
Enhancespecialisedcelluloseportfolio
Expandpaper
packaginggrades
Our group strategy
21
We will make investments in existing and adjacent areas with strong potential growth. Debottlenecking of Saiccor, Cloquet and Ngodwana
DWP. Investments in Speciality packaging incl. Rockwell
and Cham Paper Additional packaging at Ngodwana and Tugela Mills. Securing additional HW timber supply. Biomaterials, bio-chemicals – lignins, sugars. Expansion of Saiccor by 110kt/annum
Accelerategrowth in
high marginproducts
Extractvalue from our
biorefinerystream
Enhancespecialisedcelluloseportfolio
Expandpaper
packaginggrades
Debottlenecking Saiccor – 10kt complete April 2018 Ngodwana – 50kt complete September 2018 Cloquet – 30kt complete Q3 2019
additional 70kt swing capacity available
Expansion Saiccor – 110kt ≈Q3 2020 subject to positive EIA
External Paper pulp prices impacting valuations and returns
DWP expansion plans
22
23
Outlook
DWP demand good – pricing to recover in Q2.
In Europe, utilisation rates remain good, higher sales prices lag pulp cost increases
In NA paper price increases offset by extended downtime on PM1 at Somerset.
Maastricht and Somerset Mills conversions complete in 2nd and 3rd quarters, respectively.
Cham Paper acquisition to close end February 2018
Capex to be US$500m on conversions in EU/NA, debottlenecking DWP at
Saiccor/Ngodwana/Cloquet and upgrade of the Saiccor wood-yard – leading to stronger
profitability in 2019.
Q2 expected to be below last year due to stronger ZAR, lower DWP prices
24
Outlook
Thank you
25
26
Supplementary information
Excluding special items*
27
EBITDA and operating profit
* Refer to the supplementary information in this presentation for a reconciliation of EBITDA to reported operating profit and page 18 in our Q1 FY18 financial results booklet (available on www.sappi.com) for a definition of special items.
175
195
160
209
201 20
8
155
221
172
112
133
97
145
136 14
5
93
152
105
0
50
100
150
200
250
US$
milli
on
EBITDA Operating profit ex special items
28
Net debt/EBITDA development
* EBITDA is excluding special items.** The covenant Net debt/LTM EBITDA calculation has adjustments and therefore differs from that shown above.
238
0
224
8
228
6
194
6 204
0
191
6
191
7
177
1
173
4
165
2
1583
1408
1338
1329
1318
1322 1349
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
1 000
1 200
1 400
1 600
1 800
2 000
2 200
2 400
2 600
Q1 FY14 Q2 FY14 Q3 FY14 Q4 FY14 Q1 FY15 Q2 FY15 Q3 FY15 Q4 FY15 Q1 FY16 Q2 FY16 Q3 FY16 Q4 FY16 Q1 FY17 Q2 FY17 Q3 FY17 Q4 FY17 Q1 FY18
US$
milli
on
Net debt Net debt/LTM EBITDA**
1.78
4.6
Western Europe
29
Coated paper deliveries and prices
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1.1
1.2
Q1
08
Q1
09
Q1
10
Q1
11
Q1
12
Q1
13
Q1
14
Q1
15
Q1
16
Q1
17
CWF Demand MCR Demand CWF 100gsm Sheets LWC 60gsm offset reels
Western Europe shipments including export.Source: Cepifine, Cepiprint and RISI indexed to calendar 1Q 2008.
30
Sappi Europe
* Sales less operating profit excluding special items divided by tons sold.** Refer to the supplementary information in this presentation for a reconciliation of EBITDA to reported operating profit and page 18 in our Q1 FY18 financial results booklet (available on www.sappi.com) for a definition of special items.
Q1 FY18 Q4 FY17 Q1 FY17Tons sold (‘000) 822 842 867Sales (EURm) 571 583 602
Price/Ton (EUR) 695 692 694Cost/Ton* (EUR) 657 651 648
Operating profit excluding special items** (EURm) 31 35 40
Global production sites
31
Sappi packaging and speciality papers
Alfeld Mill (Germany)
Flexible packaging, label, SBB board, topliner and release liner
Ehingen Mill (Germany)
Topliner – Fusion®
Somerset Mill (USA)
Label paper – LusterCote® and Flexpack paper – LusterPrint®
Tugela Mill (South Africa)
Liner – UltraTest® and Fluting – UltraFlute®
Maastricht Mill (The Netherlands)
Folding boxboard – atelier™
Cloquet Mill (USA)
Label paper – LusterCote®
Westbrook Mill (USA)
Casting and release paper – Ultracast® & different classic brands
Ngodwana Mill (South Africa)
Liner – KraftPride®
Global market size – Speciality packaging
32
Markets and growth rates
o C1S paperso 1.2 million tonso Growth: 2-3%pa
Flexible packagingand label papers Release liner
o CCK graphic artso 300,000 tonso Growth: 6%pa
Rigid packaging
o SBS printing andconverting
o 4.7 million tonso Growth: 2%pa
Containerboard
o Coated white Topliner
o 1 million tonso Growth: 1-2%pa
Functional papers
o Barrier and greaseresistant papers
o Virtually unlimited
Source for growth rates: AWA, Pira and RISI.
United States of America
33
Coated paper prices and shipments
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1.1
1.2
Q1
08
Q1
09
Q1
10
Q1
11
Q1
12
Q1
13
Q1
14
Q1
15
Q1
16
Q1
17
Domestic CWF shipments Domestic CWF purchases RISI price CFS #3 60lb rollsUS industry purchases defined as industry shipments, plus imports, less exports.Source: AF&PA and RISI indexed to calendar Q1 FY08.
34
Sappi North America
* Sales less operating profit excluding special items divided by tons sold.** Refer to the supplementary information in this presentation for a reconciliation of EBITDA to reported operating profit and page 18 in our Q1 FY18 financial results booklet (available on www.sappi.com) for a definition of special items.
Q1 FY18 Q4 FY17 Q1 FY17Tons sold (‘000) 343 361 353Sales (US$m) 342 357 354
Price/Ton (US$) 997 989 1,003Cost/Ton* (US$) 1,000 914 980
Operating profit excluding special items** (US$m) (1) 27 8
Dissolving wood pulp market
35
Viscose-grade DWP is used almost exclusively in textile applications
Source: Hawkins Wright; Fibre Year 2017; RISI ‘Dissolving Pulp Monitor’ (Jan 2017) and ‘Outlook for the Global Dissolving Pulp Market’.
OtherEurope Americas China
0.2
5.3
0.6
0.6
1.7
3.7
1.9
7.8
Market size 2016 Mtpa
CAGR 2010-16%
Viscose
Cellulose ethers and MCC
Cellulose acetate tow
Nitro-cellulose and other
Products (examples)
6.6 ~6-7Total
Rayon Grade
High-alpha/Speciality
DWP gradeDemand geography
Applications (examples)• Textiles (viscose)• Non-wovens• Cellophane• Sausage skins
• Construction• Food additives• Medicine fillers• Cosmetics
• Cigarette filters• Paints and coatings• Films• Plastics
• Explosives• Inks• Lacquers• Nail polish
Fibre properties and applications
36
Cellulosic fibre properties are superior to cotton and polyester for many textile applications
Source: IHS Global, RISI, Hawkins Wright.
Key strength Qualifies Issue
ApparelHome textilesNonwovens/Technical textiles
Overall value proposition
Applications
Function and feel
Appearance
Sustainability
1762
21
6627
7
5220
28
Cellulosic fibres Cotton Polyester
• On a pure property basis, cellulosic fibres are superior to cotton and differentiated on sustainability.
• Polyester is differentiated on strength/durability versus cotton and cellulosic fibres.
• Natural and attractive, ‘greener’ alternative to cotton
• Natural, functional and well established
• Cheap, durable and versatile
Durability
Absorbency Breathability Softness
Drape Dyeability
Brightness/Lustre
Renewable and biodegradeable
Resource efficiency
37
There is still significant headroom to increase the level of cellulosic fibre blending in most sub-categories
Source: Expert interviews.
POLYESTER
Future Today Gap Today Future Gap Today Future Gap COTTON CELLULOSIC
Apparel
Home textile
Towels 5% 5% 0% 80% 75% -6% 15% 20% +33%
Bedding 45% 55% +22% 45% 40% -11% 1% 2% +100%
Denim 5% 5% 0 95% 95% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Shirts 35% 40% +14% 50% 40% -20% 15% 20% +33%
T-shirts 30% 50% +67% 70% 50% -29% 3% 5% 0%
Dresses 10% 10% 0% 35% 25% -29% 55% 65% +18%
Suits 35% 40% +14% 25% 20% -20% ~1% ~2% +100%
Sportswear 85% 85% 0% 0% 0% 0% 15% 15% 0%
Casual wear 45% 50% +11% 45% 35% -22% 10% 15% +50%
38
Pulp prices*
* Source: FOEX, CCF group.
600
700
800
900
1 000
1 100
US$
/ton
NBSK Europe BHKP Europe Commodity DWP Cotton linter pulp
39
Textile fibre prices*
* Source: CCF group.
800
1 200
1 600
2 000
2 400
2 800
Cotton 328 Cotton "A" Index PSF 1.4 D VSF 1.2 D VSF 1.5 D
US$
/ton
40
Sappi Southern Africa
* Sales less operating profit excluding special items divided by tons sold.** Refer to the supplementary information in this presentation for a reconciliation of EBITDA to reported operating profit and page 18 in our Q1 FY18 financial results booklet (available on www.sappi.com) for a definition of special items.
Q1 FY18 Q4 FY17 Q1 FY17Tons sold (‘000) 383 447 364Sales (ZARm) 4,073 4,641 4,022
Price/Ton (ZAR) 10,634 10,383 11,049Cost/Ton* (ZAR) 8,180 7,908 7,838
Operating profit excluding special items** (ZARm) 940 1,106 1,169
Cash flow
41
US$m Q1 FY18 Q4 FY17 Q1 FY17Cash generated from operations 162 204 202Movement in working capital (83) 103 (97)
Net finance costs paid (6) (20) (17)
Taxation refund (paid) 6 (38) (34)
Dividend paid - - -
Cash generated from operating activities 79 249 54Cash utilised in investing activities (93) (208) (37)Capital expenditure (88) (197) (37)
Net proceeds on disposal of assets - 1 2
Acquisition of subsidiary - (11) -
Other movements (5) (1) (2)
Net cash generated (utilised) (14) 41 17
Excluding special items reconciliation to reported operating profit
42
EBITDA and operating profit
* Refer to page 18 in our Q1 FY18 results booklet (available on www.sappi.com) for a definition of special items.
US$m Q1 FY18 Q4 FY17 Q1 FY17
EBITDA excluding special items* 172 221 201Depreciation and amortisation (67) (69) (65)
Operating profit excluding special items* 105 152 136
Special items* - gains (losses) 11 (1) 7
Plantation price fair value adjustment 16 7 11
Profit on disposal of assets - (2) -
Asset impairments - (6) -
Fire, flood, storm and other events (5) - (4)
Segment operating profit 116 151 143
Thank you
43
Recommended