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7/31/2019 Q1 2012 Economic Review
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February 2012
Asia PacifcEconomicOutlook
In thIs Issue:
ChinaJapanMalaysiaTaiwanVietnam
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Asia Pacifc Economic Outlook — February 2012 2
China’s economy seems headedor a sot landing.
In the ourth quarter o 2011, real GDP was up 8.9 percent
over the previous year. This was the slowest rate o growthsince 2008, but it was relatively strong nonetheless. Further
news in January showed an economy growing but at a
more modest pace than beore. During the Lunar New
Year holiday in January, retail sales were up 16 percent over
the previous year. This compares to growth o 19 percent
during the Lunar New Year o 2011. The January 2012
gure was the slowest rate since 2009. The government’s
purchasing manager’s index or manuacturing was up
slightly in January, refecting a slight and modestly paced
acceleration in manuacturing output. Finally, price
pressures have diminished. In December, consumer price
infation was 4.1 percent, down rom above 6 percent
during the summer. This was the lowest rate o infation in
15 months. It refects the impact o last year’s tightening o
monetary policy. It also refects the eects o dampening
global commodity prices.
Remaining imbalances
Despite the slowdown in growth, there remain some
imbalances in the economy. In the ourth quarter,
investment in xed assets was up 23.9 percent. This
means that investment continued to expand as a share
o GDP and accounted or a disproportionate share o
the increase in GDP. It refects ongoing local government
spending on inrastructure and continued spending by
state-run companies on expanding capacity. It also refects
a continued rise in property development.
There are, however, indications that property investment
is starting to diminish. In December, home sales were up
only 10 percent, the slowest rate o increase since 2008.
In addition, home prices were down 6.9 percent over the
previous year, refecting tighter credit cond itions in the
housing market.
In any event, it is not possible or investment to sustain
economic growth in the long term. Property investment
is already decelerating, and it is likely that other orms o
investment will likely decelerate in the near uture. Instead,there may be a to boost consumer spending. It would also
help i there were a boost to investment by private sector
companies, especially smaller businesses. Consequently, the
government has introduced incentives or bank lending to
small businesses. It has also authorized banks to increase
their overall lending, including lending to consumers.
Although monetary policy has been loosened in recent
months, the central bank has chosen to keep interest rates
and the required reserve ratio unchanged during its most
China
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Asia Pacifc Economic Outlook — February 2012 3
recent deliberations. The government appears to be in a
wait-and-see mode, not wanting to curtail growth but still
wanting to curtail infation. In addition, the government
remains interested in a gradual bursting o the property
price bubble. House prices have allen, but some ocials
have said that a urther decline in property prices would
be benecial, enabling more households to aord a home
purchase.
Currency issues
One o the more interesting pieces o economic data lately
was the decline in oreign currency reserves in the ourth
quarter o 2011. This was a surprise and was the rst time
since 1998 that reserves declined. The decline was small
— a drop o $3 billion out o a total o over $3 trillion
in reserves. Still, it was signicant. For the past decade,
China has accumulated reserves in order to prevent the
currency rom rising in value. Rather than allowing currency
appreciation, the central bank met the excess demand
or renminbi by supplying that renminbi to the market.
In exchange or supplying renminbi, China purchased
oreign currency. Yet, in the ourth quarter o 2011, China
accumulated no oreign currency, and still, the renminbi
did not appreciate. That means that there was no excess
demand or renminbi. It means there was no fow o “hot”
money into China. Indeed, there was an outfow o capital.
One o the problems with accumulating oreign reserves
is that, in the process, China has been boosting its moneysupply. Thus, the ocus on maintaining the exchange
rate has interered with China’s ability to manage its own
money supply and control infation. Now, with the currency
stabilizing, even in the absence o currency market
intervention, China can ocus on domestic considerations
and leave the currency alone. Still, over time, it is likely
that the renminbi will appreciate urther in the absence o
intervention. That would be a good thing in the long run as
it would suppress infation and boost Chinese purchasing
power. It would also help to acilitate a transition away
rom export orientation.
External headwinds
Finally, China remains concerned about Europe. The
leadership has indicated a willingness to participate in
eorts to stabilize Europe’s nancial system, probably
through the IMF. The decline in European demand already
had a negative impact on China’s export growth. The
IMF issued a warning that, should Europe sink into a
deep recession, China’s economic growth could drop
by 4 percentage points. That would be catastrophic.
Conventional wisdom holds that China needs to grow at
least 7–8 percent per year in order to absorb new entrants
and migrants into the labor orce. For now, a deeper
recession in Europe — possibly the result o a collapse o
the Eurozone — seems unlikely. But such a scenario cannot
be ruled out. The IMF also said that, should China ace a
serious decline in growth, a big scal stimulus would be
warranted.
The IMF issued a warning that, should Europe
sink into a deep recession, China’s economicgrowth could drop by 4 percentage points.That would be catastrophic.
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Asia Pacifc Economic Outlook — February 2012 4
Japan experienced a troublingdearth o positive news in 2011.
In the rst quarter, a devastating earthquake and tsunami
resulted in widespread destruction in the northeastern parto the country. Natural disaster was promptly ollowed by
the threat o a nuclear d isaster, which resulted in industry
shut downs, supply chain disruptions, and plummeting
manuacturing output. The Japanese economy contracted
during the rst hal o the year, but by the end o Q3 2011,
it staged a remarkable but short-lived recovery beore
showing signs o a slowdown in the ourth quarter. Weak
exports, an unavorable job market scenario, and supply
chain disruptions resulting rom foods in Thailand were a
drag on GDP growth in Q4 2011.
The Eurozone crisis and the resulting repercussions on the
world economy remain signicant risks or the Japanese
economy. Moreover, the outlook or the U.S. economy
isn’t very strong either. These external actors, combined
with the yen’s relentless appreciation, may take a heavy
toll on Japan’s export-dependent economy. Although
an uptick in retail sales partially compensated or lower
exports in December 2011, retail sales are unlikely to
drive GDP growth in the coming months. As employment
benets expire, Japan’s labor market may also experience
higher levels o unemployment and wage loss. As a result,
domestic demand may be s luggish throughout the year.
A major problem that plagues the Japanese economy
is the rise o the yen, the consequences o which have
been several-old. First, the appreciating yen has directly
impacted Japan’s export competitiveness. Exports declined
during Q4 2011, and this downward trend is likely to
persist in 2012. Owing to declining exports and rising
uel imports, Japan is expected to run a trade decit in
2011 or the rst time since 1980. Second, the decline in
exports has a huge impact on Japan’s economy and, in
particular, the manuacturing sector. Finally, a rising yen
accentuates Japan’s defationary environment. Japan’s
core CPI recorded a 0.1 percent decline in December 2011
ater declining 0.2 percent in November and 0.1 percent in
October. While mild infation may help revive the Japaneseeconomy, whether the CPI will experience an uptick in
the near uture remains uncertain. Furthermore, given the
current state o the U.S. economy and the weak outlook
or Europe, the yen is likely to continue on its upward path
against the dollar and the euro.
Meanwhile, the initiation o the Trans Pacic Partnership
(TPP) between the United States, Australia, South Korea
Japan
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Asia Pacifc Economic Outlook — February 2012 5
and other countries in Southeast Asia may be a bitter but
helpul pill or Japan. The TPP has the potential to liberalizetrade and bolster relations between member countries.
However, Japan’s interest in joining the group drew mixed
reactions domestically. Several industries within Japan
are wary o losing protection against oreign competition
and will likely lobby against Japan’s membership. The
U.S. auto industry has also expressed its concern in
allowing Japan to join the TPP, citing structural barriers in
Japan’s economy that cannot be corrected through trade
agreements. In their view, Japan’s membership will hurt
the U.S. manuacturing sector.1 On the other hand, various
businesses both within Japan and outside have welcomed
the decision. While the move could benet the Japanese
economy, the Prime Minister will likely ace severalchallenges in obtaining parliamentary approvals.
On the upside, it’s possible that reconstruction activity
could keep the economy afoat in 2012. Furthermore,
Japan’s auto sector output is likely to accelerate. According
to a poll conducted by Reuters, many analysts anticipate
that the impact o reconstruction spending will wane as
the year progresses. However, China’s economy is expected
to recover during the latter part o the year and mayprovide some support to the Japanese economy. Overall,
growth expectations or 2012 are muted compared to
initial orecasts.
So ar, Japan’s recovery isn’t living up to expectations.
Moreover, excessive reliance on exports does not augur
well or the country’s economy. Inherent weaknesses in the
global economy could potentially have negative eects on
Japan’s export and nancial sectors. The situation could
turn or the worse i the external environment continues to
deteriorate.
While an uncertain global macroeconomic environmentposes downside risks, news rom Japan may improve in
2012.Reconstruction expenditure, including inrastructure
projects and tax-breaks or companies will likely support
economic activity, allowing Japan’s economy to grow
1.5–2.0 percent.
Owing to declining exports and rising uelimports, Japan is expected to run a tradedefcit in 2011 or the frst time since 1980.
1 “Auto Industry Argues Against Including Japan in TPP, Highlights Currency.” Inside U.S. Trade 30:3. 20 January 20, 2012.
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Asia Pacifc Economic Outlook — February 2012 6
Asian economies have long been supportedby two pillars o growth: exports anddomestic demand. With weak export
demand rom the West and the possibilityo another recession, the era o export-ledgrowth may be coming to an end.
Malaysia is one o the most export-dependent countries
among its Asian peers and thus remains vulnerable to
headwinds rom abroad. Exports have already begun
to show signs o deceleration, and given weak global
economic conditions, this trend is unlikely to improve in
the months to come. In the light o dwindling exports,
domestic demand may play a key role in propelling the
economy in 2012.
The Malaysian economy started the new year on a positive
note. The central bank announced that, given stable
price conditions, it will maintain its overnight policy rate
at 3.0 percent to ensure liquid ity in the economy. It also
announced steps to liberalize its markets or domestic
oreign exchange and interest rate derivatives. These
measures include allowing residents to trade in oreign
currencies through licensed onshore banks. Further, these
banks will now be permitted to oer ringgit-denominated
interest rate derivatives to non-bank non-residents.
According to the central bank, these measures are
expected to increase the “liquidity, depth and participation
o a wider range o players in the domestic nancial
markets.” Analysts regard this as a positive signal or the
internationalization o the ringgit, which will likely also
encourage oreign investment by allowing banks to oer
innovative products.
Aside rom increased nancial activity, inrastructure
contracts and the completion o already-commissioned
projects under the government’s Economic Transormation
Program (ETP) will likely sustain investment momentum this
year. In the run up to elections, cash handouts, salary hikes,
and subsidies will likely improve domestic consumption.
The government announced a one-time cash handout
o RM500 ($157) or households with incomes below
RM3,000 per month. This is in addition to pay incrementsranging between 7 and 13 percent or 1.4 million civil
servants eective January 1. Moreover, the government has
more than doubled its subsidy on sugar to combat higher
import prices, pushing the total subsidy bill up to RM33.2
billion or this year. Private consumption accounts or more
than hal o Malaysia’s GDP, and a boost to consumer
spending in 2012 will bode well or the economy.
Malaysia
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Asia Pacifc Economic Outlook — February 2012 7
Despite an expected boost to domestic demand, theoutlook or the economy is mixed. The manuacturing
sector has displayed weak perormance in the last ew
months. Malaysia is widely regarded as a springboard or
electronics and electrical goods (E&E) re-exports, which
also make up a bulk o the local manuacturing industry.
In November, industrial production growth slowed to
1.8 percent year-over-year rom 2.9 percent during the
preceding month. In particular, production o E&E goods
contracted by 0.4 percent, ollowing a decline o 1.0
percent in October. Analogously, exports o E&E goods
dropped by 3.5 percent year-over-year during the same
month.
Exports on the whole have experienced a slowdown owing
to slump in demand, especially in the global electronics
industry. The atermath o weather-related supply
disruptions in Japan (an important market) made matters
worse. In November 2011, export growth slowed down
to 8.0 percent year-over-year compared to 15.4 percent
recorded in October. Imports, on the other hand, were
up 8.4 percent year-over-year, more than twice the 4.4percent pace observed during the previous month. China,
Japan, and Singapore are among Malaysia’s top trading
partners, and recently, damp demand conditions in these
countries have hurt Malaysian exports. Furthermore, since
the EU and the United States together account or around
20 percent o Malaysia’s exports, worsening economic
conditions in the West pose considerable downside risks to
Malaysia’s external sector in the months to come.
Thus, unlike the heyday o export-led expansion, Malaysia
and its peers are now aced with the prospects o having
to turn inward in order to achieve economic growth.
Monetary policy remains accommodative o growth, and
the government is taking certain steps to mitigate the
adverse eects o an economic slowdown. While the pillar
o export revenue may not oer much support, domestic
demand will likely continue to drive the economy, which is
expected to expand by around 4.0 percent this year.
Unlike the heyday o export-led expansion,Malaysia and its peers will now have to turninward in order to achieve economic growth.
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Asia Pacifc Economic Outlook — February 2012 8
The Taiwanese economy slipped into arecession ater suering a contraction o 0.3 percent in the ourth quarter o 2011.
This second consecutive quarter o decline was primarilythe result o a sharp contraction in capital ormation and
sluggish exports. Private and government spending also
disappointed during the ourth quarter.
The crux o the problem was bleak exports. Traditionally,
exports have ueled the Taiwanese economy by making up
almost 70 percent o its GDP. Thus, a s lump in exports is
expected to have ripple eects throughout the economy.
Recently, Taiwan’s exports, especially hi-tech goods or
developed markets, have suered because o the Eurozone
crisis. During the ourth quarter alone, exports ell by 4.5
percent in U.S. dollar terms. Moreover, China accounts or
around 40 percent o Taiwan’s exports, but its economic
outlook is cloudy. While economic ties with the mainland
are expected to strengthen, Taiwan’s export perormance
may hinge on nal demand rom China and its other
trading partners in the West.
Anemic exports had negative repercussions on the rest o
the economy, especially manuacturing. Since the island
economy is a hub or reassembling and re-exporting
hi-tech goods, a bulk o the manuacturing sector’s
output is designated or outbound shipments. Thus,
the lack o overseas demand hurt local export-oriented
manuacturing rms, which are struggling to break even.
Following a 4.6 percent year-over-year contraction in
November, industrial production dropped by 8.2 percent
year-over-year in December — the largest drop in the last
seven months. Consequently, business sentiment has also
deteriorated. Investors reacted to global uncertainty by
holding back on private investment and scaling back plans
or building capacity. From September–December 2011,
capital ormation plunged by 19.2 percent year-over-year,
dragging overall GDP growth into negative territory.
Further, manuacturing inventory accumulated while
export orders enjoyed only a marginal gain, thus
oreshadowing a uture slump. The overall composite
leading indicator compiled by the Council o EconomicPlanning Development (CEPD) saw little improvement in
December as it increased 0.5 percent rom a month ago.
Furthermore, the agency’s Monitoring Indicators bemoan
a sluggish economy. Subdued investment is expected to
pose additional challenges to recovery this year, orming a
vicious cycle. Recent data suggests that domestic demand
has also been caught in this cycle, which may weigh
heavily on growth.
Taiwan
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Asia Pacifc Economic Outlook — February 2012 9
Perhaps, Taiwan’s widely anticipated elections in January
2012 and their possible impact on cross-strait relations
increased uncertainty in the last ew months o 2011. The
stock market suered rom this uncertainty as investors
pulled out in avor o more stable markets; market
capitalization in December was about 19 percent lower
than a year ago. Following the re-election o President Ma
Ying-jeou, who avors strengthening ties with China where
many Taiwanese have business interests, some stability may
return to the Taiwanese stock market.
With investor sentiment restored to a certain extent,
Taiwan will likely see some improvement during the rst
hal o the year. In December, the central bank chose to
keep its policy rate constant, which has been unchanged
since last July. Should demand conditions in the economy
ail to suciently recover, the central bank may have to
cut interest rates urther, compromising price stability. The
government may also have to consider boosting stimulus
policies and increase spending, which has been lackluster
in the last ew quarters. With additional downside risks
posed by global uncertainty, economic expansion will likely
slow down rom 4.0 percent in 2011 to a little above 3.0percent this year.
With investorsentiment restored toa certain extent,Taiwan will likely see
some improvementduring the frst hal o the year.
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Asia Pacifc Economic Outlook — February 2012 10
Vietnam
The Vietnamese economy is likely toace several challenges in 2012.
On the domestic ront, the country is grappling with high
infation, persistent budget and current account decits,alling oreign exchange reserves, and a weak currency.
In addition, a host o external challenges emanate rom
an uncertain global macroeconomic environment. First,
declining global demand could dampen Vietnam’s export
sector growth which will infuence employment and
manuacturing sector output. Second, oreign investors
may hold back on any urther investments, which would
in turn deprive the economy o capital, at least until
economic conditions improve. While more aggressive
measures to counter macroeconomic imbalances may
need to be considered, it is unclear whether tougher policy
choices will be made; especially, since some choices could
lead to decreased domestic growth in an already-weak
global economy.
Vietnam’s GDP is estimated to have grown at 5.9 percent
in 2011. Growth was broad-based with agriculture
growing 4 percent, industry and construction growing 5.5
percent, and services recording nearly 7 percent growth.
Furthermore, exports were robust, and tourism recorded
increased ootalls. However, January provided mixed
signals. While retail sales grew 22 percent compared to
last year, Vietnam’s IIP dropped 2.4 percent. The foods
in Thailand are likely to boost Vietnam’s rice exports, and
manuacturers are expected to shit production to Vietnam.
However, these actors will only have a temporary eect
on Vietnam’s economy. Declining commodity prices may
also result in lower export revenues in 2012.
In 2011, an 18.7 percent infation rate, which resulted in
lower consumer and business condence, was a major
downside or the Vietnamese economy. The price rise
was induced by supply-side actors, elevated commodity
prices, and domestic credit growth. Infation appears to
have peaked, and orecasts or 2012 are benign. However,
infation is expected to continue at double-digit levels.
The downward trend in infation is a welcome sign or the
Vietnamese economy and may prompt the central bank
to adopt a more accommodative monetary policy to spurGDP growth. However, easy monetary policy would be a
risky decision, and policymakers may take a more cautious
approach. Moreover, infation orecasts may be revised
upward i the recent hike in the minimum wage exerts
upward pressure on overall price levels in Vietnam.
In addition, the central bank has devalued the currency
our times since November 2009. In 2011 alone, the
dong’s value has eroded by nearly 10 percent against the
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Asia Pacifc Economic Outlook — February 2012 11
U.S. dollar. In 2012, Vietnam’s currency will likely continue
its decline against the dollar due to persistent scal and
current account decits. Furthermore, Vietnam’s dwindling
oreign-exchange reserves mean that the State Bank
o Vietnam (SBV) will not be able infuence the slide by
intervening in the currency markets. On the contrary, the
central bank may resort to currency devaluation yet again
during the rst hal o 2012.
Meanwhile, the government is looking to pursue policies
that create avorable opportunities or oreign investors.
Foreign infows have been a major source o capital inVietnam, accounting or nearly 25 percent o the country’s
investment needs. However, FDI infows recorded a 26
percent decline in 2011 caused partly by a global economic
slowdown and weak macroeconomic undamentals in
Vietnam. FDI fows can address some concerns around
Vietnam’s weak oreign reserves situation. Furthermore,
with domestic investment likely to dip signicantly, oreign
capital can potentially bridge the investment gap. The
government’s ability to usher in reormist policies and
provide some stability to Vietnam’s domestic economy may
be a critical actor in the coming months.
Finally, Vietnam’s troubled banking sector is poised or
a wave o M&A activity. The proportion o bad debts at
Vietnamese banks has risen, and many smaller banks
are unable to repay their debts to the larger domestic
banks. Small banks in distress are likely to be acquired by
larger players while some may opt or mergers in a bid to
strengthen their balance sheets. Vietnam plans to narrow
its banking sector to 15 large commercial banks by 2015.
The restructuring is expected to begin in the rst quarter
o 2012.In the interim, credit growth, especially to the
real estate sector, may be limited. The SBV is expected to
continue its tight monetary stance and limit credit growthto 15–17 percent. However, the central bank’s policies will
ace sti opposition i the cost o credit rises signicantly.
Overall, GDP growth is likely to slow down in 2012.
Owing to the government’s tighter monetary stance, both
private consumption and investment will likely be weaker.
Furthermore, external actors could add to macroeconomic
instability and dampen exports and oreign investments.
GDP growth is expected to moderate to between 4.7 and
5.2 percent in 2012. Surprises, i any, are more likely on the
downside.
The government’s ability to usher in reormistpolicies and provide some stability toVietnam’s domestic economy may be a criticalactor in the coming months.
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Asia Pacifc Economic Outlook — February 2012 12
About the Economistsedior
Dr. Ira Kali
Deloitte Research
Deloitte Services LP
Tel: +1 213 688 4765
E-mail: ikalish@deloitte.com
Dr. Ira Kalish is Director o
Global Economics at Deloitte
Research. He is an expert on global economic issues
as well as the eects o economic, demographic and
social trends on the global business environment.
Maagig edior
Rya Alvao
Deloitte Research
Deloitte Services LP
Tel: +1 617 437 3009
E-mail: ralvanos@deloitte.com
Coribor
Pralad Brli
Deloitte Research
Deloitte Services LP
India Tel: +91 40 6670 1886
E-mail: pburli@deloitte.com
na Jai
Deloitte Research
Deloitte Services LP
India Tel: +91 40 6670 3133
E-mail: nehajain59@deloitte.com
About Deloitte ResearchDeloitte Research, a part o Deloitte Services LP, identies,
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