Putin redux

Putin redux

Vertical or Horizontal?

Putin’s First Term (2000-2004)

• The 2nd Chechen War

• Economic revival

• Putin reaches out to the US on 9/11

• Bush revives the Cold War against Russia

Reversing the Yeltsin Years

• NATO expansion

• The Serbian bombing

• The mess in Chechnya

• Economic failures

US-NATO Expansion into E. Europe

• 1999 Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary join NATO

• 2004 Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Bulgaria, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia are admitted

• 2007 Overtures to Georgia and Ukraine

• 2008 August Georgia attacks Russian peacekeepers, precipitates war with Russia

The “Coloured Revolutions”

• Series of “regime changes” in Eastern Europe and Eurasia orchestrated by US NGOs and Govt. organizations

• George Soros (Hungarian “oligarch”)organization implicated

• Use of symbols: colours, flowers• Slogans• electoral techniques, mass youth

demonstrations to topple regimes

September 2000 – “Otpor!”

• Opposition organized around one candidate in elections

• Youth demonstrations play key role

• Slobodan Milošević ousted as president of Yugoslavia

• Subsequently tried for war crimes in the Hague

Georgia’s “Rose Revolution” November 2003 – Saakashvili replaces Shevardnadze

Kiev, Ukraine: “Pora!”

UkraineNovember 2004 “Orange Revolution”

• Faked presidential election results lead to demonstrations

• Viktor Yushchenko (orange candidate) mysteriously poisoned

• Viktor Yanukovich defeated by Yushchenko in new elections

Ukraine uncrowed queen

• Yulia Tymoshenko (Orange) played key role in victory

• 2006 becomes prime minister, constantly argues with Yushchenko

• Parliament remained deeply divided

The Russian Response “Nashi” defend Putin’s Russia

Moscow’s Reaction to Coloured Revolutions and NATO Expansion

• US and NATO seen as promoting instability in post-Soviet space

• Russian interests seen as ignored• Return to cold-war rhetoric in US hardens anti-American

attitudes in Russia• Foreign NGOs driven out of Russia, e.g. Soros “Open Society”• British Council branches closed in provinces• Russia seeks to exploit division in Europe between “Old

Europe” (France, Germany, Italy, Spain) and “New Europe” (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Czech Republic, plus UK and US)

The Russian View on NATO(pre-Obama)

• Russia has abided by all agreements, recognized all borders, not invaded any country

• The US reneged on a promise not to expand NATO and is seeking to encircle Russia

• US by placing rockets in Poland and the Czech republic is in fact targeting Russia, while claiming that Iranian or North Korean rockets are the reason

• The US and NATO have bombed innocent civilians, torn up a UN resolution on the inviolability of Serbian borders

• NATO is a cold war institution when in fact a new security organization is needed that includes Russia

Putin’s second term 2004-2008

• Putin’s powerbase: based on siloviki (power ministries: FSB, Ministry of Internal Affairs, Defence plus Democratic Liberal forces

• Analysis of Russian electorate: end to disorder, strong leader, good image

• Consolidation of power: beginning in 2005 elections to Duma based on party lists, 7% minimum of votes cast

• Oct 2004 Abolition of election of regional governors.

Mikhail Khodorkovski’s fate

• Unpopularity of Oligarchs – analysis: pursue the most visible.

• 25 October 2003 arrest of Khodorkovsky

• Sentencing of Khodorkovsky to 9 years. May 30 2005

• Resentenced in 2010• Other oligarchs tolerated… 

Putin’s second term

• Beslan school hostage taking 1 Sept 2004: over 1000 hostages taken by Chechen and Ingush terrorists and held for 3 days; about 300 killed including 186 children

• Channel 4 Documentary Beslan

The Duumvirate

2008-2012

2008: Choosing a Successor

• The speculation that Putin would stay on

• The candidates: Dmitry Medvedev and Sergei Ivanov (KGB, Minister of Defence, fluent English) made Vice-Presidents

• The result: Medvedev more popular, endorsed by Putin

The Tandem: Both “Good Cops”

“Name of Russia” Program 2008TV Channel Rossiya

Ranking of the twelve greatest “Russians”

1. Alexander Nevsky

2. Pyotr Stolypin

3. Josef Stalin

4. Alexander Pushkin

5. Peter I

6. Vladimir Lenin

7. Fyodor Dostoevsky

8. Alexander Suvorov

9. Dmitry Mendeleev

10. Ivan the Terrible

11. Catherine II

12. Alexander II

Pyotr Stolypin (1862-1911)

• 1906 became prime minister under Nicholas II

• Nationalist, believer in strong state power

• 1909 carried out reforms of agriculture to create a productive peasant class

• 1911 assassinated in Kiev by terrorist

• Name associated with efficient, pragmatic reforms

The New Monarchy: President as Monarch

Dmitry Medvedev (1965-)

• St Petersburg law professor

• Served in administration of Anatoly Sobchak (liberal mayor of St Petersburg)

• New, “young” image to the Kremlin

• Has internet blog

The Conflict of 2008

During Olympic Peace 8 August 2008

• Georgia invades South Ossetia, kills civilians, Russian peacekeepers

• Russian troops drive Georgians out of S. Ossetia, destroy Georgian army bases

• Abkhazia seizes Georgian-controlled valley, now has complete control of its territory

• Russia, citing the recognition of Kosovo by US and allies, recognizes the independence of S. Ossetia and Abkhazia

The Reset: Rebooting the Relationship

• After coming to power in 2009 Obama decides to “reboot” the relationship with Russia

• Arms agreements signed• US transports materiel to

Afghanistan through Russia

• Russia joins embargo on Iran

Medvedev’s Program

• Law reform• Police reform (draft legislation placed on

internet for commentary)• Firing corrupt officials – notably Luzhkov,

Mayor of Moscow• Modernization: visited Silicon Valley, friends

with Schwarzenegger

2011 The New Paradigm

• The breakdown of the coalition of forces: Aleksei Kudrin, Minister of Finance leaves the cabinet

• Putin’s candidacy for presidency badly received

• Demonstrations after falsified elections to the Duma