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Project Management in PracticeProject Management in PracticeSecond Edition
Mantel, Meredith, Shafer, and Sutton
Prepared byp yScott M. Shafer
Wake Forest UniversityWake Forest University
John Wiley and Sons, Inc.Copyright 2005 John Wiley & Sons,
Inc.5-1
Jo W ey a d So s, c.
Chapter 5Chapter 5
Scheduling the Project
Copyright 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
5-2
PERT AND CPM NETWORKSPERT AND CPM NETWORKS
Copyright 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
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ihTarihçe
1950 lerin sonlarındaP E l i d R i T h i– Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) Program değerlendirme ve gözden
i k iğigeçirme tekniği• U.S. Navy, Booz-Allen Hamilton, and Lockeheed
Ai ftAircraft• Probabilistic faaliyet süreleri
– Critical Path Method (CPM) Kritik yol yöntemi• Dupont De Nemours Inc.
Copyright 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
5-4• Deterministic faaliyet süreleri
/C i l ji iPERT/CPM terminolojisi
Activity –Faaliyet-İşlemGö ö l i– Görev veya görevler seti
– Kaynak kullanırEvent- Olay- Düğüm
Bir yada daha fazla faaliyetin tamamlanması– Bir yada daha fazla faaliyetin tamamlanması durumuK k d k ll– Kaynak ya da zaman kullanmaz
– Öncel(öncül) faaliyetler tamamlanmalıCopyright 2005 John Wiley & Sons,
Inc.5-5
/CPERT/CPM terminolojisi
Milestones- kilometre taşlarıh k i ifi– events that mark significant progress
Network –Ağ-Serimğ– diagram of nodes and arcs
used to illustrate technological relationships– used to illustrate technological relationshipsPath -Yol– series of connected activities between two
eventsCopyright 2005 John Wiley & Sons,
Inc.5-6
/CPERT/CPM
Critical Path –Kritik Yolf i i i h h if d l d ill– set of activities on a path that if delayed will
delay completion of projectCritical Time –Kritik süre- Proje tamamlanma süresi– time required to complete all activities on the
critical pathcritical path
Copyright 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
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k A lNetwork- Ağı oluşturma
AOA (Activity 0n Arc) Network(faali etlerin oklarla gösterimi(faaliyetlerin oklarla gösterimiAON(Activity on Node) Network(faaliyetlerin düğümlerle gösterimi)
Copyright 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
5-8
Table 5-1 A Sample Set of ProjectTable 5 1 A Sample Set of Project Activities and Precedences
Task Predecessora --a
b --
c a
d b
e b
f df c, d
g eCopyright 2005 John Wiley & Sons,
Inc.5-9
Figure 5-1 Stage 1 of a SampleFigure 5 1 Stage 1 of a Sample AON Network
Copyright 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
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Figure 5-2 Stage 2 of a SampleFigure 5 2 Stage 2 of a Sample AON Network
Copyright 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
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Figure 5-3 A Completed SampleFigure 5 3 A Completed Sample AON Network
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Figure 5-4 Stage 1 of a SampleFigure 5 4 Stage 1 of a Sample AOA Network
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Figure 5-5 Stage 2 of a SampleFigure 5 5 Stage 2 of a Sample AOA Network
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Figure 5-6a A Completed SampleFigure 5 6a A Completed Sample AOA Network
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Figure 5-6b A Completed Sample AOAFigure 5-6b A Completed Sample AOA Network Showing the Use of a Dummy Task
Copyright 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
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Table 5-2 A Sample Problem for FindingTable 5 2 A Sample Problem for Finding the Critical Path and Critical Time
Activity Predecessor Duration
a -- 5 daysb -- 4c a 3d a 4d a 4e a 6f b, c 4g d 5h d, e 6i f 6j g, h 4
Copyright 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
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Figure 5-7 Stage 1 of a SampleFigure 5 7 Stage 1 of a Sample Network
Copyright 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
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i 8 A C l kFigure 5-8 A Complete Network
Copyright 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
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Figure 5-9 Information ContentsFigure 5 9 Information Contents in an AON Node
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Figure 5-10 The Critical Path andFigure 5 10 The Critical Path and Time for Sample Project
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Faaliyetlerin Boşluk SüreleriniFaaliyetlerin Boşluk Sürelerini Hesaplama
Slack or FloatLST EST LFT EFT Sl k (b l k)LST - EST = LFT - EFT = Slack (boşluk)
Copyright 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
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Figure 5-11 An MSP Version ofFigure 5 11 An MSP Version of PERT/CPM Network
Copyright 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
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Figure 5-12 A Modified VersionFigure 5 12 A Modified Version of MSP Network
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PROJECT UNCERTAINTY AND RISK MANAGEMENT
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Calculating Probabilistic ActivityCalculating Probabilistic Activity Times
Three Time EstimatesP i i i (kö ü ) (b)– Pessimistic (kötümser) (b)
– most likely(en olası) (m)– Optimistic(iyimser) (a)
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Figure 5-13 The Statistical Distribution of all Possible Times for an Activity(beta dağılımı)(beta dağılımı)
Copyright 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
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Activity Expected Time andActivity Expected Time and Variance
E 6)4(T ++
=bma
6
6)( −
=abσ
2)( ⎞⎛ b 22
6)(Var ⎟
⎠⎞
⎜⎝⎛ −
==abσ
Copyright 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
5-28
9 l95 Percent Level
Task will be a or lower 5 percent of the timetimeTask will be b or greater 5 percent of the time
)(b33
)( ab −=σ
3.3
Copyright 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
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90 l90 Percent Level
Task will be a or lower 10 percent of the timetimeTask will be b or greater 10 percent of the time
)(b62
)( ab −=σ
6.2
Copyright 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
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95 Percent Level (Alternative95 Percent Level (Alternative Interpretation)
Task will be between a and b 95 percent of the timethe time
)( ab −=σ
92.3σ
Copyright 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
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90 Percent Level (Alternative90 Percent Level (Alternative Interpretation)
Task will be between a and b 90 percent of the timethe time
)( ab −=σ
29.3=σ
Copyright 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
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i 14 A AO kFigure 5-14 An AON Network
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Figure 5-15 An MSP Version ofFigure 5 15 An MSP Version of a Sample Problem Network
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Figure 5-16 A Pert/CPMFigure 5 16 A Pert/CPM Network for the Day Care Project
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Figure 5-17 An MSP Calendar for theFigure 5 17 An MSP Calendar for the Day Care Project, 4/16/00 to 5/27/00
Copyright 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
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The Probability of CompletingThe Probability of Completing the Project on Time
)(D2
)(σ
μ−=
DZμσ
=NORMDIST(D μ σ TRUE)=NORMDIST(D,μ,σμ,TRUE)
Copyright 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
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Figure 5-18 The Statistical Distribution ofFigure 5-18 The Statistical Distribution of Completion Times of the Path a-b-d-g-h
Copyright 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
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S l i i k d i diSelecting Risk and Finding D
2σμ ZD += μσμ ZD +=
NORMINV(probability,μ,σ ,TRUE)NORMINV(probability,μ,σμ,TRUE)
Copyright 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
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SIMULATIONSIMULATION
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Traditional Statistics VersusTraditional Statistics Versus Simulation
Similaritiesl h– must enumerate alternate paths
Differences– simulation does not require assumption of path
independenceindependence
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THE GANNT CHARTTHE GANNT CHART
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Figure 5-23 A Gantt Chart of aFigure 5 23 A Gantt Chart of a Sample Project
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Figure 5-24 A Gantt Chart of Sample Project Showing Critical Path, Path Connections, Slack, EST, LST, EFT, and LFT
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Figure 5-25 A Gantt Chart of a Day Care Project Showing Expected Durations, Critical Path, Milestone, and Resource Requirements
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Figure 5-26 A Progress Report on a Day CareFigure 5-26 A Progress Report on a Day Care Project Showing Actual Progress Versus Baseline
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EXTENSIONS TO PERT/CPMEXTENSIONS TO PERT/CPM
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d i iPrecedence Diagramming
Finish-to-start linkageli kStart-to-start linkage
Finish-to-finish linkageFinish to finish linkageStart-to-finish linkage
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Figure 5-27 PrecedenceFigure 5 27 Precedence Diagramming Conventions
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O h h dOther Methods
Graphical Evaluation and Review Techniq e (GERT)Technique (GERT)– combines flowgraphs, probabilistic networks,
and decision trees– allows loops back to earlier events and p
probabilistic branching
Copyright 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
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C i hCopyrightCopyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.All rights reserved. Reproduction or translation of this work beyond that
permitted in Section 117 of the 1976 United States Copyright Act without express permission of the copyright owner is unlawful. Request for further information should be addressed to the Permissions qDepartment, John Wiley & Sons, Inc. The purchaser may make back-up copies for his/her own use only and not for distribution or resale. The Publisher assumes no responsibility for errors omissions orThe Publisher assumes no responsibility for errors, omissions, or damages, caused by the use of these programs or from the use of the information herein.
Copyright 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
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