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Hadera EnergyTech Conference, Tel Aviv, April 2016
Professor Dr. Pavel KabatIIASA Director General and Chief Executive Officer
Long-term Strategic Energy Solutions
CONTENTS
• Energy in the long-term• An integrated approach to meet multiple energy
challenges• How technology can help• What investments are needed for a sustainable
energy system• Future collaboration
Energy in the long-term
Global Primary EnergyHistorical Evolution
An integrated approach to meet multiple energy
challenges
Energy Access
Energy Security
Climate Change
The Key Energy Challenges
Air PollutionHealth Impacts
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
EJ
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200SavingsOther renewablesNuclearGasOilCoalBiomass
Bio-CCS – negative CO2
Nat-gas-CCSCoal-CCS
Biomass
Coal
RenewablesNuclear
Oil
Gas
Source: Riahi et al, 2012
Energy savings (efficiency, conservation, and behavior)~40% improvement by 2030
~30% renewables by 2030
Global Primary EnergyA Transformational Pathway
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
Only Energy Security Only Air Pollution and Health Only Climate Change All Three Objectives
Total G
lobal Policy Co
sts (20
10‐2030)
Source: McCollum et. al, 2012; IPCC, 2014
Multiple Benefits of Integrated Policies
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
Gm
3
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200BaselineGeothermalSolarWindHydroNuclearGas wCCSGas woCCSOilCoal wCCSCoal woCCSBiomass wCCSBiomass woCCS
Biomass
Coal
Renewables
Nuclear
Oil
Gas
Limited BioenergyBio-CCS – negative CO2
Nat-gas-CCSCoal-CCS
Source: Fricko et al, 2014
Global Water WithdrawalsA Pathway with Full Portfolio
Efficient Urban Energy Systems
11Source: Global Energy Assessment, 2012
How technology can help
time
costperformance
Benz Motorwagen (1885)
Ford Model T (1914)
Steam-powered Cugnot (1769)
transformational
disruptive
existing technology
We seek technologies that lead to
fundamentally new learning curves
Source: Steve Chu, 2013
Incremental & Disruptive Technologies
cumulative output - experience
Supply Technologies Cost Trends
Source: Grubler et al, 2012
What investments are needed for a sustainable
energy system
Oil
Gas
Coal
Electricity Transmission
Fossil Electricity
Renewable Electricity
Other conversion
2050
Today(941bill.)
No Sustainability Policies(2558 bill.)
2005-2010
Investment Portfolios World
Source: Riahi et al, 2012
Efficiency(marginal)
OilGas
Coal
Electricity Transmission
Fossil Electricity
Renewable Electricity
CCS Other conversion
Oil
Gas
Coal
Electricity Transmission
Fossil Electricity
Renewable Electricity
Other conversion
2050
Today(941bill.)
No Sustainability Policies(2558 bill.)
2005-2010
Investment Portfolios World
Source: Riahi et al, 2012
GEA-Efficiency(2849 bill.)
Future collaboration
IIASA
An international research institute that conducts multidisciplinary research to help policymakers find long-term solutions to global and regional challenges facing
countries
Israel Energy Outlook
Possible project:System analysis of plausible futures for the Israeli energy sector within the broader regional and global context
THANK YOU
FURTHER INFORMATION:www.iiasa.ac.at
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