[Primer] climate change

L Should Singapore do moreabout climate change?

CLIMATE change, which threat-ens to cause rising temperatures,intense storms and rising sea lev-els, is a global issue that Singa-pore can’t escape.

So should the island state domore about climate change? Theanswer: It depends.

Clearly, it is vulnerable to ris-ing oceans and drastic changes inrainfall that result when excesscarbon dioxide and other green-house gases warm the atmos-phere. But it is also a small coun-try with a relatively small abso-lute carbon footprint – it produc-es just 0.2 per cent of the world’sgreenhouse gases that cause warm-ing.

Given that China produces awhopping 29 per cent of globalgreenhouse gas emissions and theUnited States produces 16 percent, Singapore’s tiny contribu-tion might cause some to thinkthat nothing the Republic doeswill make even a dent in the glo-bal picture of climate change.

Yet the Republic has pledged tocut its emissions by 16 per centfrom the business-as-usual sce-nario by 2020 if the world reachesan agreement on climate change,and from 7 per cent to 11 per centif there is no global agreement.

Without measures to slashemissions, Singapore’s emissionsin 2020 are projected to reach77.2 million tonnes. That is theamount the entire world currentlyemits in a single day.

Its emissions targets may seemsmaller than other nations’ – forexample, Germany has a domesticprogramme that aims to cut green-house gas emissions by 40 percent from 1990 levels by 2020.

But other countries have agreater capacity to switch their en-ergy sources from coal or fuel oilto natural gas or renewable ener-gy. Singapore’s choices are morelimited.

Singapore began switching itsfuel mix more than a decade ago.In 2000, 19 per cent of its powercame from natural gas. By 2010, itwas 78.7 per cent.

But barring a technological mir-acle, it has little space for sprawl-ing rooftop solar panels or windturbines.

That does not mean it is fid-dling while the world burns.

A national climate change strat-egy report published last monthoutlined a number of steps Singa-pore has taken in recent years.For one thing, it is promoting en-ergy efficiency. An Energy Conser-vation Act that takes effect nextyear mandates that large consum-ers of energy, such as industries,appoint energy managers and sub-mit improvement plans.

Industries contributed 54 percent of Singapore’s carbon emis-sions in 2005, and are projected to

contribute 60.3 per cent in 2020in a business-as-usual scenario.

Singapore’s emissions are ex-pected to grow at 4.3 per cent ayear till 2020. Much of its econom-ic growth until that period comesfrom relatively high-emitting in-dustries such as petroleum refin-ing and chemicals. And power gen-eration can no longer easilyswitch from fuel oil to natural gasas it had in years past.

In the long term, Singaporewill have to decide what it wants

its economy to be built on. Shouldit reconsider its industry mix toshift towards less energy-inten-sive industries?

At the same time, it must dothis without outsourcing or shunt-ing that same work to countriesthat might be less energy effi-cient, which might reduce Singa-pore’s emissions but result in high-er overall global emissions.

And it must balance emissionscontrol with other needs such asenergy security, which means us-

ing other forms of energy withless severe impact on the environ-ment.

Meanwhile, Singapore is takingother steps to stem its carbonemissions. Transport in 2005 pro-duced 19 per cent of the country’semissions. But new rail lines andmore trains by 2016 may convertsome motorists to public trans-port with lower emissions. Andnew buildings are subject to theGreen Mark certification scheme,which imposes minimum stand-ards on energy and water efficien-cy.

Yet for all its concrete policies,Singapore should not neglect theintangible aspects of climatechange action.

In international negotiations,some small nations feel they havemore standing to bargain withhigh-emitting countries if theyhave already taken the clean lead.For instance, the Maldives and Sa-moa, both small island states atrisk from sea-level rises, havepledged to go carbon-neutral –having its emissions be equal tothe amount it takes in or offsets –

by cutting fossil fuel consumptionand installing more renewablepower. Singapore may opt toadopt such a negotiating stance.

Developing countries and citieslook to Singapore as an exampleof a sustainable city. But in fact, ifeveryone in the world consumedat the rate the average Singapo-rean does, 3.5 earths would beneeded to generate the resourcesfor such a level of consumption,according to a World Wide Fundfor Nature report last month.Much of what is consumed is notproduced here, so that carbonemissions are outsourced to othercountries.

So there is room to change peo-ple’s mindsets so that every indi-vidual feels that he can contributemore to stemming climate change– say, by consuming or wastingless.

Just as psychological defence isone of Singapore’s five pillars oftotal defence, Singapore could fos-ter its people’s psychological en-gagement with this global chal-lenge.

caiwj@sph.com.sg

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FIVE years ago, researchers fromthe Gallup World Poll asked peo-ple from around the world whe-ther they were aware of global cli-mate change, and whether theypersonally perceived it as a threat.

Though 89 per cent of the Sin-gaporeans asked said they knewsomething or a lot about climatechange, just 59 per cent of thoseviewed it as a threat. (South Koreacame in at 93 and 80 per cent. InEthiopia, 80 per cent said theywere aware of climate change,and 73 per cent of those saw it asa personal threat.)

Last year, a survey by Singa-pore’s own National ClimateChange Secretariat showed 73.8per cent of 1,010 respondentswere concerned about climatechange, and 63.4 per cent thoughtSingapore would be severely af-fected.

So there is rising awareness ofhow the Republic will be buffetedby climate change. Even if theeconomy remains robust, there isno way for Singapore to spend itsway out of climate change’s worstimpacts.

If global greenhouse-gas emis-sions go unchecked, both rainfalland dry periods could becomemore intense, for example – andflood and water management will

be more and more important forthe island-state.

Boosted by melting ice sheets,sea levels are also projected to risebetween 18cm and 59 cm this cen-tury, estimates the United Na-tions’ climate panel. Some scien-tists say the rise could be as muchas 1m to 2m.

So the Singapore governmenthas mandated that new reclaimedland must be at least 2.25m abovethe highest recorded tide level.And much of the coastline alreadyhas some form of tidal protection.

But the nation will feel theknock-on effects of climatechange beyond its borders, too.

For example, extreme weathermeans that food production willfluctuate, making global food pric-es – including those here – morevolatile. Business supply chainscould also be disrupted – for in-stance, floods in Thailand lastyear hit the electronics and auto-mobile supply chains hard.

And as oceans warm up, someof the reefs that serve as homesand nurseries to fish are dying off,so the food-fish supply may dwin-dle, leading to further food-securi-ty worries.

On the flip side, some mea-sures to stem climate change canalso be good for the country.

For instance, boosting energyefficiency would help Singapore –which has few energy or fuel re-sources of its own at the best oftimes – increase its energy securi-ty, by making energy supplies gofurther.

And cross-border efforts tohalt deforestation in Indonesiacan also put a lid on forest firesthere as well as the consequenthaze that clouds the skies eachyear.GRACE CHUA

By GRACE CHUA

Developing countries and cities look toSingapore as an example of a sustainablecity. But in fact, if everyone in the worldconsumed at the rate the averageSingaporean does, 3.5 earths would beneeded to generate the resources for such alevel of consumption, according to a WorldWide Fund for Nature report last month.

Global problem, bleak outlook

In 2000, 19 per cent of Singapore’s power came from natural gas. By 2010, it was 78.7 per cent, a result of a switch in the country’s fuel mix that started more than a decade ago. ST PHOTO: ALPHONSUS CHERN

Construction work south of Keppel Road, near Singapore’s Central BusinessDistrict. If global climate change goes unchecked, both rainfall and dry periodscould become more intense, and sea levels are projected to rise. ST FILE PHOTO

This primer is the 10thinstalment of a 12-partseries in the Opinionpages, in the lead-upto The StraitsTimes-Ministry ofEducation NationalCurrent Affairs Quiz.

L If climate change is such apressing global problem, why isit so hard to deal with?

AT THE first Rio EarthSummit, held in Brazil in 1992,leaders from all over the worldproduced the United NationsFramework Convention onClimate Change, the landmarkagreement to stabilise theproduction of greenhousegases in the atmosphere toprevent runaway, man-madeclimate change.

The treaty sowed the seedsof the Kyoto Protocol, whichoutlines limits and targets forgreenhouse gas emissions.Greenhouse gases like carbondioxide, methane and nitrousoxide trap the sun’s heat inthe atmosphere, causing it towarm up. They result bothnaturally and from humanactivities, but man-madesources such as burning fossilfuels are putting too much ofthese into the atmosphere.

But since then, progress onclimate change has beenincremental.

In part, that’s because thenations of the world stilldisagree on a critical issue:Who does what and who pays?

Under the Kyoto Protocol,wealthy countries were to helpless-developed ones withtechnology and funding to payfor emission reductions.

At the latest climate changemeeting in Durban last year,participants agreed to set up aGreen Climate Fund tochannel US$100 billion (S$125billion) towards poorercountries, but plans for asustainable income streamhave not yet been formed.

Developing countries suchas China and India argue thattheir per capita emissions aremuch lower than those of

developed countries’ andtherefore they should get tocatch up economically beforethey start cutting back.

But that argument will nothold for much longer: anInternational Energy Agencyanalysis last year found thatChina’s per capita emissionswill outstrip the EuropeanUnion’s in the next four years.

Developing nations also saythat even as they try to helpthemselves, it is developednations like those in Europewhich should bearresponsibility for the climatechange crisis today, becausethe latter grew theireconomies by emittinggreenhouse gases.

But the world’s balance ofeconomic power has shifted inthe years since 1992.

Today, China’s totalemissions far outstrip those ofany European economy.Europe’s economies, mired indebt, are less able to financeefforts by developingcountries.

What is more, not allcountries have signed on tothe Kyoto Protocol.

Last year, Canada – anenergy producer that is nowexploiting its wealth of fossilfuels in the form of tar sands– withdrew from it.

That underscores yetanother challenge.

Even as many countriessuffer the ill effects of climatechange, such as drought andloss of agriculturalproductivity, some countrieswill benefit directly fromclimate change, if theirgrowing season lengthens withwarmer weather.

Others, such as Canada,will benefit from simplyignoring it.GRACE CHUA

PRIMER

Doing more about climate change

Rising awarenessof the effects

A28 OOPPIINNIIOONN F R I D A Y , J U L Y 2 7 , 2 0 1 2