Presentation by Moshe Braner, 2014. Parts based on: Forgotten Fundamentals of the Energy Crisis...

Presentation by Moshe Braner, 2014. Parts based on:

Forgotten Fundamentals of the Energy Crisis (1978)by Albert A. Bartlett, University of Colorado at Boulder

“Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored,” - Aldous Huxley

Energy and Growth in a Finite World

What is “Energy”?

In physics: the ability to do physical “work”.

And what is “work”? Force along a distance.

What is “Energy”?

Types of Energy

mass in motion

Types of Energy

mass in motionelevated mass

Types of Energy

mass in motionelevated massheat

Types of Energy

mass in motionelevated massheatfuel

Types of Energy

mass in motionelevated massheatfuelchemical

Types of Energy

mass in motionelevated massheatfuelchemicalfood

Types of Energy

mass in motionelevated massheatfuelchemicalfoodelectricity

Types of Energy

Total amount of work done = energy

Energy: quantity vs. rate

Amount of work done per unit time = power

Energy, not power, has a set price

Units of Energy

Joule (basic metric unit of energy)KWH (kilowatt-hour)BTUCalorie (1 kilocal = 4187 J)Cord of wood (20 billion J)Gallon of gasoline (130 million J)Barrel of oil (42 gallons = 6 billion J)

Units of Energy

Units of Power

Watts = Joules per secondKilowatt = 1000 watts = “1 Household”Horsepower = 746 wattsBTUs per hourCalories per dayBarrels of oil per day

Units of Power

There ain’t no such thing as “watts per hour”

Watts = volts X amps

Energy Conversion

Energy Conversion

Elevation to speedWood to heatElectricity to lightCalories into metabolismSunlight into electricity

Energy Conversion

- subject to the laws of thermodynamics

First law of thermodynamics

Energy cannot be created nor destroyed- only converted from one form to another

“you can’t win”

Second law of thermodynamics

Energy conversions are never 100% efficient- some energy is lost as heat

“you can’t break even”

Second law of thermodynamicsEnergy conversions are never 100% efficient

- therefore they have a price, in energy and in money

Energy Return On Energy Invested

Energy Surplus is the basis of civilization

Video: TV debate on “growth”

What is “Growth”?

Exponential Growth: when the rate of increase is proportional to the amount already present

Exponential Growth: when the rate of increase is proportional to the amount already present

Things that behave this way:• biological populations• industrial capital• economic activity

Exponential Growth: when the rate of increase is proportional to the amount already present

Mathematical description:

Xt = X0 ert

where Xt is quantity at time t, r is the “rate of

growth”, and e is a very special number (2.718...)

Slope dX/dt = rX - proportional to X

Exponential Growth: It takes a fixed length of time to grow by a fixed percentage, e.g., one year to grow by P percent

Exponential Growth: It takes a fixed length of time to grow by a fixed percentage, e.g., one year to grow by P percent

Corollary: It takes a (different) fixed length of time to grow by any fixed percentage, e.g., to double the quantity

Exponential growth: It takes a (different) fixed length of time to grow by any fixed percentage, e.g., to double the quantity

Mathematical rule of thumb: doubling time = 70 / rate of growth (as %) T2 = 70 / P

Mathematical rule of thumb: doubling time = 70 / rate of growth (as %)

Examples:

3.5%/year growth rate = doubling every 20 years

7%/year growth rate = doubling every 10 years

10%/year growth rate = doubling every 7 years

Video: yeast1 - doublings

Exponential Growth in a finite environment: fictional example: bacteria doubling every hour

The last hours in the bottle:

6 pm 1/64 full (1.5%) 63/64 empty

7 pm 1/32 full (3%) 31/32 empty

8 pm 1/16 full (6%) 15/16 empty

9 pm 1/8 full (12%) 7/8 empty

10 pm 1/4 full (25%) 3/4 empty

11 pm 1/2 full (50%) 1/2 empty

12 midnight 100% full 0% empty

- Until shortly before reaching limits, growth seems benign.

350 years of exponential growth at 2.9% per year

World energy use, if it could continue to grow exponentially at only 2.3% per year:

“Sustainable growth” is an oxymoron

Temperature of Earth’s surface, if planetary energy use continued to grow exponentially at only 2.3% per year:

“Sustainable growth” is an oxymoron

Exponential Growth in a finite environment: same example: bacteria doubling every hour

The effect of discovering three more bottles:

10 pm bottle #1 is one-quarter full

11 pm bottle #1 is one-half full

12 midnight bottle #1 is full

1 am bottles #1 and #2 are both full

2 am bottles #1, #2, #3 and #4 are all full

- Size of resource has little effect in the face of growth.

Video from ChrisMartenson.com Crash Course: Compound Growth

Video: yeast2 – pond lilies

Length Of Life Of a Finite Resource When The Rate Of Consumption Is Growing Exponentially

With even a moderate rate of growth, the resource is depleted much faster than with no growth

Growth rate Lifetime of Resource no growth * 10 30 100 300 1000 3000 1% 9.5 26 69 139 240 343 2% 9.1 24 55 97 152 206 3% 8.7 21 46 77 115 150 4% 8.4 20 40 64 93 120 5% 8.1 18 36 56 79 100 6% 7.8 17 32 49 69 87 7% 7.6 16 30 44 61 77 10% 6.9 14 24 34 46 57 * “at current rate of consumption”

“The world has not prepared for the future. During the 1950s, people used twice as much oil as during the 1940s. During the 1960s, we used twice as much as during the 1950s. And in each of those decades, more oil was consumed than in all of mankind's previous history.

World consumption of oil is still going up. If it were possible to keep it rising during the 1970s and 1980s by 5 percent a year as it has in the past, we could use up all the proven reserves of oil in the entire world by the end of the next decade.”

- Jimmy Carter, 1977

1990-2000

1970-1980

1980-1990

1960-1970

1950-1960

ALLUNTIL1950

THIS AMOUNT OF OIL WOULD HAVE BEEN NEEDED IN ORDER TO HAVE OIL CONSUMPTION CONTINUE TO GROW AT A RATE OF 7% PER YEAR FOR THE DECADE 2000-2010

A GROWTH RATE OF 7% PER YEAR MEANS A DOUBLING TIME OF ONE DECADE

DURING EACH DOUBLING, AS MUCH OF THE RESOURCE IS USED AS IN ALL PRECEDING TIMES COMBINED

BEFORE 1973, WORLD USE OF OIL WAS GROWING AT A RATE OF 7% PER YEAR

THIS DID NOT ACTUALLY HAPPEN – GROWTH IN OIL USE SLOWED DOWN SINCE 1973

What happens when the limits to growth are reached?

time

Rate

of

consumption

Exponential growth, then an abrupt stop

More typical:

a gradual leveling off, then a drawn out decline

From Joel Cohen's paper in Sep. 2005 Scientific American:

“Although the rate of population growth has fallen since the 1970's, the logic of compounding means that current levels of global population growth are still greater than any experienced prior to World War II. ... In effect, the poor countries will have to build the equivalent of a city of more than one million people each week for the next 45 years.”

What’s wrong with this statement?

“… global environmental constraints are already starting to impose themselves. ... Overall global economic growth is compatible with sustainable management of the ecosystems on which all humans depend--indeed, wealth can be good for the environment--but only if public policy and technologies encourage sound practices and the necessary investments are made in environmental sustainability.”

- Jeffery Sachs in Sep. 2005 Scientific American

Video: yeast3 – limits

“Anyone who believes exponential growth can go on forever in a finite world is either a madman or an economist.”

- Kenneth Boulding, economist

“To call a practice or system unsustainable is not just to lodge an objection based on aesthetics, say, or fairness or some ideal of environmental rectitude.

What it means is that the practice or process can’t go on indefinitely because it is destroying the very conditions on which it depends.”

- Michael Pollan

Conclusions:

• We must understand the arithmetic of growth, especially in terms of the earth's finite resources.

Conclusions:

• We must understand the arithmetic of growth, especially in terms of the earth's finite resources.

• Beware any claim based on “current rate of use”.

Conclusions:

• We must understand the arithmetic of growth, especially in terms of the earth's finite resources.

• Beware any claim based on “current rate of use”.

• It is critically urgent to abandon our religious belief in the disastrous dogma that "growth is good”.

Conclusions:

• We must understand the arithmetic of growth, especially in terms of the earth's finite resources.

• Beware any claim based on “current rate of use”.

• It is critically urgent to abandon our religious belief in the disastrous dogma that "growth is good”.

• We must conserve in the use and consumption of everything. We must outlaw planned obsolescence.

Conclusions:

• We must understand the arithmetic of growth, especially in terms of the earth's finite resources.

• Beware any claim based on “current rate of use”.

• It is critically urgent to abandon our religious belief in the disastrous dogma that "growth is good”.

• We must conserve in the use and consumption of everything. We must outlaw planned obsolescence.

• We must recognize that, as important as it is to conserve, large savings from conservation will be quickly wiped out by even modest rates of growth.

- Albert Bartlett

Growth, economics,and current energy affairs

Conventional economics

is based on growth

– Our money system is based on debt

– Interest can be paid only via growth

Conventional economics

based on growth

– Our money system is based on debt

– Interest can be paid only via growth

– Within this system, “no growth” means a monetary collapse

Economy is dependent on energy

– Economic activity requires energy & materials

– Supposedly “energy efficient” US economy relies on manufacturing in China

Conventional economics based on growth

– A bigger economy requiresmore natural resources

Conventional economics based on growth

– A bigger economy requiresmore natural resources

Conventional economics based on growth

– A bigger economy requiresmore natural resources

– Growth cannot continue for long on a finite planet

The “growth economy” is a pyramid scheme

- US Energy Information Administration 1/07

How much of the energy pie can renewable energy replace?

“Fracking” for natural gas

Shale gas “fracking” won’t save us

– Not new technology!

– Very expensive

– Only worth doing if price is high but price is now low

Shale gas “fracking” won’t save us

– Natural gas not profitable

– Gas “flared” if no pipeline

– Associated oil is profitable

– Limited use for “liquids”

drilling migrated to “wet” sites

“Fracking” (gas or oil) won’t save us

– Well output declines fast

– 50% drop in one year

– 90% drop in three years

– Best sites used first

Need to drill ever faster ($$$) What if we run out of drill sites?

Shale gas “fracking” is a finance bubble

– Drilling done to raise stock price– Drilling for dry gas now declining

– Gas sold at loss to repay debts

Shale gas “fracking” bubble popping

– Drilling done to raise stock price– Drilling for dry gas now declining

– Gas sold at loss to repay debts

– Companies selling assets

US oil production minor in global picture

Drill, baby, drill!

Video: “pale blue dot”

Possible Discussion Points:

• Why are we addicted to growth?

• How can we get off the growth treadmill?

• What would a no-growth society look like?

“The promotion of growth is simply a sophisticated way to steal from our children.”

- David Brower