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Presented by Louis Gritzo, Vice President of Research, FM Global.
Citation preview
Create a Win-Win Wind Situation to Survive
the Next Hurricane
Dr. Louis Gritzo
Vice President, Research
Agenda
• Hurricane risk is real• Loss is preventable• Simple, cost-effective solutions
Hurricane risk is real.
Hurricane risk is real.
• $9-Trillion exposed
• $8-Billion annual loss
• 7 of 10 in 5 years
Hurricane risk is real.
• All but Two have been Windstorms!
$6.1 $6.4 $6.6 $6.6 $7.8 $8.0$11.0
$15.9
$20.0$21.5
$40.0
$0$5
$10$15$20$25$30$35$40$45
Hur
rica
ne H
ugo
(198
9)
Win
dsto
rm L
otha
r (1
999)
Win
dsto
rm D
aria
(199
0)
Typh
oon
Mirei
lle (1
991)
Hur
rica
ne C
harley
(200
4)
Hur
rica
ne Iv
an (2
004)
Nor
thridg
e Ea
rthq
uake
(199
4)
Sept
. 11
Terror
Attac
k (2
001)
Hur
rica
ne A
ndre
w (1
992)
Hur
rica
ne K
atrina
(200
5)*
Hurricane risk is real.
• Coastal property
Hurricane risk is real.
• Global markets
Hurricane risk is real.
• Climate change?
Hurricane risk is real.
Hurricane risk is real.
Hurricane risk is real.
Northeast Hurricane Tracks
AIR
RMS
MIT
Hurricane risk is real.
• 80% operations exposed• 50% not prepared• 45% negative impact
Companies are unprepared for the worst.
source: FM Global Natural Disaster Business Risk Study - 2008
Hurricane risk is real.
• “Disaster Amnesia” • Risk Underestimation• Procrastination• Short-Term Focus• Solution Dismissal
www.fmglobal.com/disaster
Loss is preventable.
• Best Practices = $$$• Weak vs. Strong RM
– 20x greater loss– 29X greater risk from
hurricane loss– 7x more costly
www.fmglobal.com/study
Loss is preventable.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
"Modeled" Wind Loss Projection
Actual FM Global Gross Wind Loss
650
220Gro
ss L
oss
(U
S$M
)
Windstorm Loss from 2004 HurricanesWindstorm Loss from 2004 Hurricanes
Benefit from risk improvement$430M
Model PredictedLoss
Actual Loss
985
505
0200400600800
1000
Gro
ss L
oss
in U
S$
Mill
ion
s
Hurricane Katrina (2005)
49% reduction attributable to risk
improvement
Loss is preventable.
84% reduction in average loss
Average Wind Loss / $100 TIV
Hurricane Katrina (2005)
2.30
0.370.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
Av
g L
os
s/$
10
0 V
alu
e
(ce
nts
)
UnimprovedLocations
Improved Locations
Loss is preventable.
Loss is preventable.
• September 5 – Frances
• September 26 – Jeanne
Loss is preventable.
Simple, cost-effective solutions.
Simple, cost-effective solutions.
Simple, cost-effective solutions.
Simple, cost-effective solutions.
Secure roof deck & flashing - emphasize
edges and corners
1
Secure building envelope including doors and other
openings
2Take reasonable precautions in the hours immediately before loss
3
Simple, cost-effective solutions.
Simple, cost-effective solutions.
Simple, cost-effective solutions.
Simple, cost-effective solutions.
Simple, cost-effective solutions.
Simple, cost-effective solutions.
Simple, cost-effective solutions.
Washed away?
Blown in?
Blown off?
Shut down?
Surviving the Next Hurricane
• Rhode Island is vulnerable, people will forget
• You can beat Mother Nature
• Cure disaster amnesia
Eliminate vulnerabilities now
Questions
Surviving the Next Hurricane
• Rhode Island is vulnerable, people will forget
• You can beat Mother Nature
• Cure disaster amnesia
Eliminate vulnerabilities now
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