Prepared by Facebook for the San Mateo County Transit ...Rail+Corridor/...2021/03/15  · • 428...

Prepared by Facebook for the San Mateo County Transit District

Public Meeting

Dumbarton Rail Corridor Update

March 15, 2021

Virtual Meeting Guidelines

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Please save your questions until after the presentation.• To ask a question:

• Click on the Q&A Icon• Type into the text box• People who called in should press *9 to raise their hand

• All perspectives are welcome• One person speaks at a time • This meeting is being recorded • Any inappropriate comments or questions will be deleted and the person who

produced them will be muted• Continual disruption will warrant removal from the meeting• All will have a chance to participate

Simultaneous interpretation is available in Spanish, Mandarin, Vietnamese, Tagalog, Tongan, and Samoan. Click the Interpretation button at the bottom of your screen and select your preferred language.

Agenda

• Introductions

• Welcome

• Overview of Process to Date

• Proposed Alignments

• Ridership Forecast Results

• Cost Estimates

• Q&A

• Closing

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Overview of Process to Date

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• Strategic Planning Process• Identify Project•Define Purpose and Need•Develop Conceptual Alternatives• Environmental Clearance• Permitting

Work to Date

• Draft Purpose and Need• Collaborated with Resource

Agencies• Engaged with Stakeholders• Held Community Meetings• Documented Existing Conditions• Developed Range of Alternatives• Built Ridership Forecast Tool• Conducted Ridership Forecast

Analysis

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Current Phase of Work

• Document Existing Conditions• Conduct Ridership Forecasting Analysis• Stakeholder Engagement

• Gov’t and Public Sector; 6 municipalities• Community: residents, advocates, community-based

organizations, businesses

• Community Meetings• Conduct Evaluation of Alternatives• Write Alternatives Analysis Report

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Recommended Next Phase of Work

• Select Preferred Alternative (District Action)

• Environmental Clearance – EIR/EIS• Engineering Refinements• Environmental Technical Studies• Travel Demand Forecast/Ridership

Projections

• Continued Inter-agency Coordination• Continued Outreach/Stakeholder

Engagement• Permitting

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Modes

LRT BRT

Light Rail Transit(LRT)

• 136 Seats• 428 Total Riders• Electric• Dedicated

Guideway

• 110 Seats• 244 Total Riders• Battery• Dedicated

Guideway

• 8 Seats• 22 Total Riders• Battery• Dedicated Guideway• Flex-Service

Bus Rapid Transit(BRT)

Autonomous Vehicle Transit (AVT)

Commuter Rail Transit (CRT)

• 204 Seats• 598 Total Riders• Battery/Electric Hybrid• Dedicated Guideway

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Considerations: AVT Option

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• This is a new and emerging technology/mode with limited examples of deployment

o Global examples: Netherlands, Heathrow, UAEo North America: Pilot deployments nationwideo Note: There is no application of AVT at this mass

transport scale

• Further analysis needed to obtain US Gov’t approval to prove:

o System reliabilityo Ability to scaleo Technology readinesso Security

• Evolving Federal policy related to AV transit

Considerations: BRT option• Bus Rapid Transit (BRT): mode of public transportation

that combines quality of rail transit with flexibility of buses.• Occupies a space between conventional bus service and

Light Rail Transit (LRT)• “Rubber-tired” LRT: High level of service, quality

amenities, and superior ride quality• Zero emission technology needs further R&D to show

reliability• Technology changing quickly• Agencies testing both technologies• Challenges:

• Scalability• Battery technology

o Rangeo Charging timeo Battery life 10

CRTAlignment

Note: Alignments and stations are being studied for technical feasibility in regards to engineering, operations, land use, city and agency coordination

Maintenance & Storage Facility

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LRT, BRT, &AVTAlignmentNote: Alignments and stations are being studied for technical feasibility in regards to engineering, operations, land use, city and agency coordination

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Maintenance & Storage Facility

Regional Bike/Ped Network

Tells us how many people are traveling through the corridor and when.

Ridership/Travel Demand Model

Tells us how vehicles operate and how travelers will experience the services.

Simulation Model

Modeling Types

Ridership ForecastMethod & Assumptions

• Ridership forecasts were developed using a travel demand model which conforms to industry standards and is used by most MPO’s.

•Model encompasses the 9-County Region

•Major inputs to the model include:

• Transit and Highway network data

• Region’s population, employment, and socio-economic data

• Projected congestion levels

• Transit Level of Service on the proposed project

• Transit Oriented Development

Ridership Projections

LRT BRT AVT

Data Source: HDR 2021 Ridership Report

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5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

CRT LRT/BRT AVT

2040 Weekday Ridership

Low High

14,600

17,800

19,800

24,300

16,900

20,600

Phase I Peninsula Boardings•First round of analysis

Methodology• Preliminary Phase I forecast

to understand the potential ridership for each station

• Ridership estimate is not mode-specific.

Phase II Peninsula Boardings•Second round of analysis•Ridership estimate is mode-specific

Adjusted Methodology•Ridership forecast adjusted to include land uses within a one-mile radius for the University Avenue Station, including an additional 5-million s/f of office space. This adjustment is seen on the updated Phase II 2040 weekday boardings.

Ridership Projections

LRT BRT AVT

Stations CRT UPRR Alignment in East Bay

LRT and BRT CA-84 Alignment in East Bay

AVT CA-84 Alignment in East Bay

Redwood City 1,800 to 2,200 3,500 to 4,000 4,800 to 5,500

Middlefield Road 1,400 to 1,700 2,800 to 3,200 2,900 to 3,400

Willow Road 2,100 to 2,500 2,900 to 3,400 4,100 to 4,800

University (adjusted) 700 to 1,000 900 to 1,200 1,100 to 1,400

Newark 500 to 700 1,000 to 1,200 800 to 1,000

Ardenwood 500 to 600 1,100 to 1,300 1,400 to 1,700

Fremont 4,500 to 5,400 1,500 to 1,800 2,100 to 2,500

Union City 3,100 to 3,700 2,100 to 2,400 1,900 to 2,200

Quarry Lakes 1,100 to 1,300 1,500 to 1,800

14,600 to 17,800 16,900 to 19,800 20,600 to 24,300

2040 Weekday Ridership Station Boardings

Data Source: HDR 2021 Ridership Report

Operation Diagrams

LRT/BRT

CRT

AVT Operations

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Simulation Findings

• All four modes offered comparable travel times; +/- 30 minutes end to end. (CRT is estimated at +/- 25 minutes, but follows a different route)

• Estimated Passenger wait times:CRT were longest (+/- 10 minutes), BRT and LRT were moderate (+/- 5 minutes) AVT was lowest (+/- 2 to 4 minutes)

Basis of Concept Cost Estimates• Assumes Design-Build Contract Delivery

• FTA Standard Cost Categories

• 2021 Dollars with No Escalation

• Based on Recent Executed Contracts in Region / Direct Vendor Outreach and FTA Capital Cost Data

• Includes • Infrastructure Construction Costs • Vehicles per HDR Fleet Size (February 2021)• Soft Costs (PM, CM, Third Party, Insurance, Commissioning) • 30% Contingency

• Excludes • All Real Estate costs• Parking Structures

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Key Components by ModeAll Costs in 2021 Dollars ($, Millions)

Key Component CRT LRT BRT AVT

Stations 8 EA | $197 M 8 EA | $109 M 8 EA | $109 M 8 EA | $128 M

Systems $290 M $257 M $60 M $80 M

Grade Crossings 25 EA | $29 M 8 EA | $9 M 8 EA | $9 M 0 EA | $0

Maintenance & Storage Facility

$103 M $103 M $74 M $86 M

Operations Center $41 M $33 M $33 M $22 M

Bay Crossing Structure $334 M $297 M $297 M $226 M

Bike Lane on Bay Crossing Structure

$35 M $35 M $35 M $35 M

Bike/Pedestrian Lanes $17 M $17 M $17 M $17 M

• All LRT, BRT, and AVT costs above consider the Decoto Road alignment• Source: HNTB, February 2021 24

Key Components by Mode• Stations – platform, vertical circulation, and bike storage

• Systems – overhead catenary system, battery charging, traction power stations, wayside controls

•Grade Crossings – vehicle/ped gates, safety improvements

•Maintenance & Storage Facility – daily vehicle inspections and basic maintenance, overnight vehicle storage

•Operations Center – control center for vehicle dispatch and operations

• Bay Crossing Structure – high-rise, fixed span section, costs higher for heavier vehicles and flatter grades

• Bike Lane on Bay Crossing Structure – 2-way bike/ped lane

• Bike/Pedestrian Lanes – 2-way bike/ped dedicated path

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Key Components by Mode, $, Million

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0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Stations Systems Grade Crossings Maintenance &Storage Facility

Operations Center Bay CrossingStructure

Bike Lane on BayCrossing Structure

Bike/Pedestrian Lanes

Cost by Key Components, $ Millions

CRT LRT BRT AVT

Estimated Project Costs by Mode

Notes:• CRT Project costs exclude UPRR Trackage Rights Fees• BRT Project costs assume similar infrastructure requirements as LRT Project• Source: HNTB, February 2021

All Costs in 2021 Dollars ($, Billions)

CRT / Decoto Road Alignment Quarry Lakes Alignment

Mode Infrastructure Vehicles Soft Costs

Total Infrastructure Vehicles Soft Costs

Total

CRT $2.43 B $0.14 B $0.75 B $3.32 B N/A

LRT $2.39 B $0.10 B $0.74 B $3.22 B $2.36 B $0.10 B $0.73 B $3.18 B

BRT $1.84 B $0.03 B $0.57 B $2.43 B $1.82 B $0.03 B $0.56 B $2.42 B

AVT $1.82 B $0.11 B $0.56 B $2.49 B $1.86 B $0.12 B $0.57 B $2.55 B

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Peninsula

Bay Crossing Bridge

East BayPossible Phased Construction

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Estimated Construction Costs by Phase

• Costs above are for proportionate estimate only to determine order-of-magnitude estimate for phases and do not include Vehicle Costs

• Source: HNTB, February 2021 29

All Costs in 2021 Dollars ($, Billions)

Peninsula Bay Crossing East Bay Total

Mode Infrastructure Soft Costs Infrastructure Soft Costs Alignment Infrastructure Soft Costs

CRT $0.56 B $0.17 B $1.34 B $0.42 B UPRR $0.52 B $0.16 B $3.17 B

LRT $0.45 B $0.14 B $1.17 B $0.36 BDecoto Rd $0.77 B $0.24 B $3.13 B

Quarry Lakes

$0.74 B $0.23 B $3.09 B

BRT $0.32 B $0.10 B $0.96 B $0.30 BDecoto Rd $0.55 B $0.17 B $2.40 B

Quarry Lakes

$0.54 B $0.17 B $2.38 B

AVT $0.41 B $0.13 B $0.85 B $0.26 BDecoto Rd $0.57 B $0.18 B $2.40 B

Quarry Lakes

$0.60 B $0.19 B $2.44 B

Q&A Session

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Contact Us

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If you have any additional questions or comments, email usat dumbartonrail@samtrans.com

For more information, go to www.samtrans.com/dumbarton

Closing