Predicting Wildfire Behavior - CAT_Risk... · evolve from fire-atmosphere interactions. WILDFIRE...

Predicting Wildfire Behavior

National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) 26 February, 2020

William P. Mahoney III Director, Research Applications Laboratory

UNDERSTANDING WILDLAND FIRES:How new research can help protect lives and property

This material is based upon work supported by the National Center for Atmospheric Research, which is a major facility sponsored by the National Science Foundation under Cooperative Agreement No. 1852977.

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National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)

Boulder, Colorado

Designed by modernist architect I. M. Pei in 1961

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• NCAR is a Federally Funded Research & Development Center

• Administered by consortium of 120 North American universities through the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR), a not-for-profit 501(c)(3) organization

National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)

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Mesa Lab Aviation Facility Center GreenFoothills Lab Campus

NCAR-Wyoming Supercomputer Center

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Mission • To understand the behavior of the atmosphere and related Earth and geospace

systems

• To support, enhance, and extend the capabilities of the university community and the broader scientific community

• To foster the transfer of knowledge and technology to society

National Center for Atmospheric Research

Chemistry Weather Climate Observations Geoscience Super Computing

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Foundational Advancements in Science & Technology

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Problem to Address

Wildland fires are exceedingly complex phenomena

• Humans cannot integrate all the interacting factors in real-time

• More sophisticated tools are needed that capture interactions between the fire and local atmosphere

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Wildland Fire ComplexityWildland fires generate extreme fire behaviors such as:

• Fire whirls and ‘firenadoes’• Fire wind blowing 10X stronger than ambient winds• Flames bursting ahead of the fire line• Fire blow-ups and firestorms• Pyrocumulus clouds• Fire splitting and merging

These all result from dynamic interactions between a fire and its environment.

Source: David McNew/Getty Images

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Fire Behavior Prediction Data Needs• Local weather observations

– Wind direction and speed– Wind gustiness– Temperature– Humidity– Precipitation amount and type

• Local weather prediction data• Up to date fuel data and local fuel condition• Vegetation state (moisture content)• High resolution topography information

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• Standard and Remote Automated Weather Station (RAWS) – (interagency)

• NWS weather prediction models (GFS, NAM, HRRR)• DOI & USGS fuel datasets (LANDFIRE) State data• USGS digital elevation models• Multi-spectral: Landsat (USGS), VIIRS, MODIS (NASA)• GOES-R series lightning, IR (NOAA)• Aircraft and UAS visible and multi-spectral data

Elko County, NV

USGS and US Dept. of Interior

DEM – Sierra Nevada

NASA - Landsat

Fire Prediction Data Sources

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Wildland Fire Research Contributions

• Forest and rangeland ecology• Combustion physics & dynamics• Fuel data development• Numerical weather prediction• Land surface prediction• Remote and in situ sensing• Coupled modeling systems• Data assimilation• Computer science

To understand fire behavior fundamentals…Source: Dr. Janice Coen, NCAR/MMM

The “universal” fire shape and fire whirls evolve from fire-atmosphere interactions.

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Source: Dr. Janice Coen, NCAR/MMM

Critical Data Need – Accurate Fuel Moisture Content

RAWS observations10-h dead fuel moisture based on MODIS retrievals

(NCAR project funded by NASA AIST)

Daily updates to fuel moisture at grid interval of 1 km!

Source: Dr. Branko Kosovic, NCAR/RAL

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Bringing It All Together

Taking advantage of these important data sources and integrating these research areas provides tremendous opportunities to advance wildland fire management

Yarnell Hill Fire Yarnell, AZ, 6/30/13

Source: Dr. Janice Coen, NCAR/MMM

Wildfire simulation illustrating the dramatic effects of changing surface winds on fire behavior

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High Park, CO Fire Simulation 6/9/12

N

Shown:• Wind speed and direction near ground• Fire location • Heat released• Smoke concentration

1 frame = 1 minute First 23 hours of the fire

Map of fire extent near the end of this period

Source, Janice Coen (NCAR/MMM)

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Wind speed in plane (in m s-1)

Simulated wind in vertical slice through the ignition point

1 frame = 1 minute, beginning 5:45 a.m. 9 June

Height(m)

Distance W-E (m)

High Park, CO Fire Simulation 6/9/12

Source, Janice Coen (NCAR/MMM)

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16

Camp Fire, CA 2018

Source, Janice Coen (NCAR/MMM)

Decision Support for Fire Management

Simulated fire line from Camp Fire at Paradise, CA

Fire Behavior Simulation

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Colorado Fire Prediction System

• Real-time data ingest of weather, fuel, and active fire detection data from the MMA and Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS)

• Multiple fire model cycles (runs) per day (utilizing updated weather and fire mapping data)

• User ability to select fire prediction location and size (via CO-WIMS)• User ability to input ignition information (via CO-WIMS)• Output customized and formatted to be displayed on CO-WIMS

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Colorado Fire Prediction System

3 KM Colorado1 KM outer subdomain

CAWFE®

Surface Air Temperature

CONUS Scale

Source - NWS

Wildland Fire Scales

~100 meters

CAWFE®

High-Resolution RapidRefresh

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Colorado Fire Prediction System19

Colorado Fire Prediction SystemFully coupled fire-atmosphere model

• Product suite: Fire extent Rate of spread Heat release Flame Length Smoke concentration Significant fire phenomena Turbulence intensity Down/updraft regions Wind shear regions Wind speed & direction Surface air temperature & humidity

Cold Springs Wildfire (near Nederland, Colorado)

July 2016

Source NCAR/RAL

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We need to provide 21st century technologies for the wildland fire community to support risk assessment and management decisions such as:

• Risk assessment & strategic planning• Mitigation effectiveness studies• Management of individual fires• Resource planning for regional operations• Support for prescribed fire planning and execution• Forest and rangeland management and planning• Smoke impacts (AQ) on human health• Forensic evaluations of fire ignition sources• Training

Risk Management for Wildfire Behavior

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Thank You

mahoney@ucar.edu

National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)