PREDICTABLY GREAT PLANNING FOR AN UNPREDICTABLE FUTURE TED KNOWLTON, WASATCH FRONT REGIONAL COUNCIL...

PREDICTABLY GREAT PLANNING FOR AN UNPREDICTABLE FUTURETED KNOWLTON, WASATCH FRONT REGIONAL COUNCIL

UTAH / WESTERN APA CONFERENCE

FALL 2014

THE CURRENT DOMAIN OF RESILIENCY PLANNING

PLANNING FOR A FUNDAMENTALLY UNCERTAIN FUTURE

“Jazz win first NBA title”

“President Chelsea Clinton bans non-pot smoking”

“Jenna Bush announces candidacy for President”

“Fidel Castro dies at age 102, Cuban cigars now legal”

“BYU joins the Texmex 12 conference”

HEADLINES FROM 2030

WHAT MIGHT HAPPEN?

• Demographic mix• Amount of growth• Consumer attitudes

• Industry shifts• Energy costs• Economic cycles• Climate change

• Natural disasters

Unpredictable

Some Predictability

RESILIENCY IN THE FACE OF: MARKET SHIFTS

WASATCH FRONT DEMOGRAPHICSGOVERNOR’S OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET

2013 2030 Growth0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

Over 6518 to 64

31%

COHORT CHANGES THAT WILL DRIVE THE HOUSING MARKET

Dow

ntow

n

Res

iden

tial C

ity

Mixed

Sub

urba

n

Resid

entia

l Sub

urba

n

Smal

l Tow

n

Rural

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

Boomer Eisenhower Gen X Gen Y

WHERE WE WANT TO LIVE VERSUS WHERE WE LIVE

INDUSTRY SHIFTS

• Internet-related retail decline

• Auto industry dealer consolidation

• Industrial restructuring

MARKET UNCERTAINTY? POLICY FLEXIBILITY

“MARKET SHIFTS” EXAMPLE POLICIES

• North Salt Lake General Plan 2013

• Town Center policies

“MARKET SHIFTS” EXAMPLE STRATEGIES

• South Salt Lake “East Streetcar Neighborhood Form Based Code”

UTAH’S TEMPLATE FORM BASED CODE

HIGHER DENSITY ZONING PROVIDES MORE MARKET FLEXIBILITY

Low Density Zoning High Density Zoning0

5

10

15

20

25

30

DU/Acre

RESILIENCY IN THE FACE OF: ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY

U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 2011, September 2012

GAS PRICESRecent Trends Projections

US Energy Information Agency

MONTHLY HOUSEHOLD EXPENDITURES ON TRANSPORTATION

Data not available

0 to 730 $

730 to 800 $

800 to 860 $

860 to 930 $

More than 930 $

2000 2008

MOST HOUSEHOLDS ARE SPREAD THIN

• Utahans spend about 25% on transportation

HOUSEHOLD DECISIONS IN TURBULENT TIMES?

• Housing?

• Transportation?

• Work?

• Food?

• Do city residents have the options available to cope?

?

?

?

??

WHAT CHOICES DOES A HOUSEHOLD HAVE?

• Transportation Choices?

• Housing Choices?

DESTINATIONS REACHABLE WITHOUT A CAR?

Now 2040

Jobs reachable within 40 minutes of homes

ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY? PROVIDE OPTIONS FOR HOUSEHOLDS?

“CHOICES” AS A POWERFUL AND ACCURATE COMMUNICATION TOOL

Two valid ways of communicating:

A mix of housing options in the community

=

“I have more choices”

=

“I have more control over my life”

More high density housing in the community

=

“More crowding in the community”

=

“I feel less safe”

“CHOICES” AS A POWERFUL AND ACCURATE COMMUNICATION TOOL

Two valid ways of communicating:

“Choices” “Crowding”

KEY TAKEAWAYS

• Resiliency Planning in cities is critically needed and in its infancy

• Market Uncertainty? Policy Flexibility

• Economic Uncertainty? Maximize Choices

• Communication Approach Matters!

• Higher density zoning provides More Market Flexibility

• “Choices” = control over your life

PREDICTABLY GREAT PLANNING FOR AN UNPREDICTABLE FUTURETED KNOWLTON, WASATCH FRONT REGIONAL COUNCIL

UTAH / WESTERN APA CONFERENCE

FALL 2014