Populations Chapter 24

Populations

Chapter 24

http://blue.census.gov/ipc/www/clock.html

Human Population

• We have seen factors that influence the growth of populations in general.

• Next we will apply some of these to the human population.

Fig. 24.22

Exponentialgrowth in thehuman population

G = r x N World Population: 2002

N = 6,228,394,430

r = 1.18

G = 73,915,261

http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/world.html

Changes in birthrates and death rates in Sri Lanka

Births - Deaths = r

World Population Events

Time unit Births Deaths Growth

-------------------------------------------------

Year 131,571,719 55,001,289 76,570,430

Month 10,964,310 4,583,441 6,380,869

Day 360,470 150,688 209,782

Hour 15,020 6,279 8,741

Minute 250 105 146

Second 4.2 1.7 2.4

-------------------------------------------------

Fig. 24.25

Examine the population demographics of these countries.

• Sweden

• Mexico

• United States

– Determine G, N and r

• http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idbsum.html

Age structures of three nations

Are these growing, shrinking or stable populations?

Shrinking Growing Stable

Your assignment• Create a single powerpoint slide containing

– Data on your assigned variable for France, Tanzania and the United States (be sure to include units).

– Explain the impact of curing heart disease and malaria on your variable – OR -

– Explain the impact of population changes predicted for 2050 your variable.

– The name of your group members.

• Go to D2L and put them in the drop box.

Variable Predict1. N, r, and G Impact of curing malaria and heart disease on variable2. Life expectancy Impact of curing malaria and heart disease on variable3. Kids/woman Impact of curing malaria and heart disease on variable4. Infant Mortality Impact of curing malaria and heart disease on variable5. Adult Mortality Impact of curing malaria and heart disease on variable6. Immigration Emigration Impact of curing malaria and heart disease on variable7. Ecological footprint Change of variable in 2050 vs. today8. Water supply amt./quality Change of variable in 2050 vs. today9. Population density Change of variable in 2050 vs. today10. Land use Change of variable in 2050 vs. today11. Wildness Change of variable in 2050 vs. today

Pop. Pyramid http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idbpyr.html

N, r, and G http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idbsum.html

Heart Disease is the leading cause of death in developed countries.

• 50% of all deaths in US and Europe, typically >50 years old.

• Caused by obesity, poor diet, lack of exercise, diabetes, and genetic factors.

Clot in Coronary Artery

Malaria kills 2-3 million humansannually (90% of malaria deaths are in Subsaharan Africa)

Caused by Plasmodium parasite and transmitted by mosquito

Affects primarily children under age of five and pregnant women(Malaria kills an African child every 30 sec)

Example:

Life Expectancy for Tanzania, France, and United States

Source: US Census Bureau

By:

I.M. Smart

M.E. Too

NOTE, THESE ARE NOT CORRECTANSWERS, JUST EXAMPLES

Tanzania France USA

Life

Expectancy

65 yrs 75 yrs 70 yrs

Curing

Malaria

No impact

Increase Decrease

Curing

Heart Disease

Increase Decrease No impact

Next class period we will…

– Present your slides in class and use them for discussion.

– Discuss the impact of curing heart disease and malaria on some of these variables.

– Discuss the impact of population changes predicted for 2050 on the other variables.

– This is worth 5 points on the final exam.

Fig. 24.25

Age structures of three nations

Are these growing, shrinking or stable populations?

Shrinking Growing Stable

Heart Disease is the leading cause of death in developed countries.

• 50% of all deaths in US and Europe, typically >50 years old.

• Caused by obesity, poor diet, lack of exercise, diabetes, and genetic factors.

Clot in Coronary Artery

Malaria kills 2-3 million humansannually (90% of malaria deaths are in Subsaharan Africa)

Caused by Plasmodium parasite and transmitted by mosquito

Affects primarily children under age of five and pregnant women(Malaria kills an African child every 30 sec)

Examine the data you collected

By: Tiffany Tyson, Chantelle Pelzer, and

Emily Brickert

Tanzania France USAN 36,071,000 60,424,000 293,028,000 r Births/1000 population=41

Deaths/1000 population=18

R=23/1000 people

Births/1000 population=13

Deaths/1000 population=9

R=4/1000 people

Births/1000 population=14

Deaths/1000 population=9

R=5/1000 people

G 2000-2010 growth rate will be 2.0%

2000-2010 growth rate will

be 0.4%

2000-2010 growth rate will be 0.9%

Curing

Malaria

The population would increase

Malaria is common in underdeveloped

countries

No impactMalaria isn’t common in developed countries

No impactMalaria isn’t common in

developed countries

Curing

Heart Disease

No Impact Heart Disease effects

mainly developed countries

Would increase the population of adults

Heart Disease effects mainly developed

countries

Would increase the population of adultsHeart Disease effects

mainly developed countries

X=

N, r, and G for Tanzania, France, and United States

Source: US Census Bureau

By:

David Feivor

Tim Molinarolo

Chelsea Enger

Nathan Tock

Tanzania France USA

N (Total Population) 36,071,000 60,424,000 293,028,000

R (Growth Rate) 1.1% -0.3% 0.7%

G (Change In) 396,781 (181,272) 2,051,196

Curing

Malaria

Increase N, r, and G

No Impact No Impact

Curing

Heart Disease

Increase N, r, and G

Increase N, r, and G

Increase N, r, and G

G, r and N for Tanzania, France, and United States

Source: US Census Bureau

By:

Mike

Loeffler

Pete

Johnson

Tanzania France USA

G

r

N

864,000

2.4%

36 MIL

300,000

0.5%

60 MIL

2.93 MIL

1.0%

293 MIL

Curing

Malaria

Increase No Impact

No Impact

Curing

Heart Disease

No Impact Increase Increase

By: Brittany Conant, Claire Knoble, Wren Walker

*If a cure for Malaria and heart disease are found, then the populations will increase, and life expectancy will also increase.

Life Expectancy in Year 2000

0

20

40

60

80

100

France Tanzania US

Country

Ag

e in

Yea

rsAge

2

Life Expectancy for Tanzania, France, and United States &Effects of Curing Malaria and Heart Disease

Tanzania France USA

Life

Expectancy

44 yrs 78.8 yrs 76.6 yrs.

Curing

Malaria

Increase No Impact No Impact

Curing Heart Disease

No Impact Increase Increase

By: Andrea Fox, Brett Gullicksrud, Rachel Knutson, Katie Penniston, Pangdra Vang

Source: US Census Bureau

Life Expectancy for Tanzania, France, and United States

Source: US Census Bureau

By:

Carrie Dietz

Kristin Minter

Jenn Moulton

Cassie Huettl

Ryan Meighan

Tanzania France USA

Life

Expectancy

44.1 yrs 78.8 yrs 76.6 yrs

Curing

Malaria

Increase Increase No Impact

Curing

Heart Disease

Increase Increase Increase

Fertility Rate Per WomanSource: US Census Bureau

No impact for curing heart disease because the women are above childbearing age.

No impact for curing malaria in the USA or France because they are developed countries.

Increase in Tanzania because less children will be dying and pregnant women will have fewer complications.

By Sara Schlough, Kristine Tresemer, Abby Biesterveld

USA France Tanzania

Fertility Rate per woman

2000 – 2025 2.1 2.2

kids/woman

2000 – 2025 1.9 1.8

kids/woman

2000 – 2025 5.5 3.4

kids/woman

Curing Malaria

NO IMPACT

NO IMPACT

INCREASE

Curing Heart Disease

NO IMPACT

NO IMPACT

NO IMPACT

Population of women/children for Tanzania, France, and United States in the year 2000 Source: US Census Bureau

By:

Brittany

Montgomery

And Brittany

Shipman

Tanzania France USA

Women/

Children

7,464/

18,624

23,076/

15,066

104,477/

80,559

Curing

Malaria

Increase No

Impact

No

Impact

Curing

Heart Disease

No Impact

Increase Increase

Infant Mortality for Tanzania, France, and United States

Source: US Census Bureau

By:

Katie McNeely,

Elissa Bauer,

Amy Calhoun,

Nick Cerwin,

Becca Long

Tanzania France USA

Infant Mortality

112 (male)/ 92 (female) per 1000

5(male)/

4(female) per 1000

9 (male)/ 7 (female)

per 1000

Curing

Malaria

Decrease Mortality

Decrease Decrease

Curing

Heart Disease

No Impact

No Impact

No impact

Infant Mortality for Tanzania, France, and United States

*Sources: US Census Bureau & World Health Organization

By: Emily Noel, Christine Benzschawel, & Karin Mueller

Tanzania France USA

Infant Mortality

109 per 1000

5 per 1000

7 per 1000

Curing

Malaria

Decrease No impact

No impact

Curing

Heart Disease

No impact

No impact

No impact

4. Infant Mortality Rate for Tanzania, France, and United States

Source: US Census Bureau and MamasHealth.comBy Jackie Henry and Lindsie Miller

Tanzania France USA

Infant Mortality Rate per 1000 births

109 deaths 5 deaths 7 deaths

Curing

Malaria

Decrease No Impact

No Impact

Curing

Heart Disease

Decrease No Impact

Decrease

France Tanzania USA

Adult Mortality (m/f per 1000)

133/60 561/512 140/83

Curing Malaria No Impact No Impact No Impact

Curing Heart Diseases

Decrease No Impact Decrease

By: Katie Kratz, Sara Wanless, Marie Fouts

Source: US Census Bureau

Tanzania France USA

Adult Mortality 561-M

512-F

133-M

60-F

140-M

83-F

Curing

Malaria

Subtle impact

Subtle impact

Subtle impact

Curing

Heart Disease

Decrease Decrease Decrease

Adult Mortality for Tanzania, France, USA

Source: US Census Bureau

By: Casy Dunphy

Meghan Jablonski

By: Pat Kelly, Andrea Keohane, and RAJ

Adult Mortality

N= 60,424,000 ppl

R= 0.5% growth

G= RN = 302,120 ppl

N= 33,065,000 ppl

R= 2.4% growth

G= RN= 704,000 ppl

N= 293,028,000 ppl

R= 1.0 % growth

G= RN= 2,930,000 ppl

Info not available on the WHO website, but the death rate is 18 per thousand in the population

Males: 140 per 1000

Females: 83 per thousand

Will not have a large effect on adult mortality because malaria primarily effects kids

Will slightly lower adult mortality because malaria is prevalent in subsaharan Africa

Will not have a large effect on adult mortality because malaria is not prevalent in the US

Will lower adult mortality because HD is the leading killer of adults in developed countries

Will not significantly lower adult mortality because it is not a big killer of adults in Tanzania

Will lower adult mortality because HD is the leading killer of adults in developed countries

France Tanzania USA

N,R,G

Adult Mortality

Curing Malaria

Curing Heart Disease

Source: US Census Bureau, World Health Organization

Males: 133 per 1000

Females: 60 per 1000

United States ---------12.22 hectares per capita

France-------------------7.27 hectares per capita

Tanzania----------------1.02 hectares per capita

1.0 hectares =2.471 acres

As the population increases over the next 45 years, the concentration of people per hectare will increase which results in a lower ecological footprint per capita.

By:

Andrew Trawinski and Sam Callan

Burma France Canada

Water Availability

21,898 cubic meters

3,349 cubic meters

94,353 cubic meters

Population Changes

Increase Decrease Decrease

By: Kristina Hertel and Vanessa Keller Water Availability for Tanzania, France, and United States

Source: Nationmaster.com

Tanzania France United States

Water Supply Amount*

(in cubic meters)3.64 thousand cubic

meters3.26 thousand cubic

meters 7.09 thousand

cubic meters

Freshwater pollution*

(in tons per cubic km)N/A 2.49 tons per cubic

km1.14 tons per cubic km

Population from present time to 2050

Increases Increases Increases

*The increasing populations of France, Tanzania, and the United States in 2050 will cause the water supply to decrease and the fresh water pollution rate to increase.

Water Supply Amount/Quality for Tanzania, France, and the United States

Source: nationmaster.com

Presentation created by: Ryan Klein, Jackie Rinzel, Kim Skuster, Krista Woolever, and Sarah Kleman

Water Supply Amount and Quality for Tanzania, France, and United States

Tanzania France USA

Water Supply

Amount and Quality Today

Water Availability: 3.64 thousand cubic

meters

Freshwater Pollution: 0.00 tons/cubic

km

Water Availability: 3.26 thousand cubic

meters

Freshwater Pollution:

2.49 tons/cubic km

Water Availability: 7.09 thousand cubic

meters

Freshwater Pollution:

1.14 tons/cubic km

Water Supply

Amount and Quality in

2050

Water Availability: Decrease

Freshwater Pollution: Increase

*POPULATION PREDICTED TO

DOUBLE BY 2050

Water Availability: Same

Freshwater Pollution:

Increase

*POPULATION PREDICTED SAME

SIZE AS NOW

Water Availability: Decrease

Freshwater Pollution:

Increase

*POPULATION PREDICTED TO BE 1.5 TIMES LARGER

Sources: www.nationmaster.com/graph-T/env_eco_foo&int=-1; US Census Bureau

By: Dena Shefelbine, Scott Szukalski, Klarissa Czys, Whitney Miller, Erik Haworth

Population Density for Tanzania, France, and United States

Source: US Census Bureau International Data Base

By: Brian

Peters,

Alexa

Jaime

In persons / sq. km.

Tanzania France USA

Today 40.7 110.7 32

2050 81.2 111.8 45.8

France Tanzania U.S.

Population Today

Density (persons per sq. km.)

60,424,213

110.7

36,071,799

40.7

293,028,571

32.0

Population 2050

Density (persons per sq. km.)

61,017,122

111.8

71,949,135

81.2

420,081,587

45.8

Impact Increase Increase Increase

Population densities for France, Tanzania, and U.S.

Source: www. Census.gov/ipc/wwwidbagg.html (001 density)

Christina Berggren, Jordan Hauser, and Michelle Huhn

United States

France Tanzania

Population

2004

293,027,571 60,424,213 36,070,799

Population

2050

420,080,587 61,017,122 71,949,135

Population

Density

Increase Increase

Slightly

Increase

Crystal Svoboda, Amanda Zellner, Tony Caauwe, Natosha Hoffmann

Population Density for United States, France and TanzaniaSource: U.S. Census Brureau

Land UseLand Use – percent of total land area available for: cultivated crops (arable land), permanent

crops (Permanent), and other areas (Other) such as prairies, pastures, forests, and built-on lands.

It is predicted that the population in Tanzania and the United States will almost double, while the growth rate of France is not nearly as high.

By: Breann Sommer, Jens Hogberg, Lindsay Tietz, & James Bodah

Country Type of Land Percent of land (%)

Prediction for

2050

Tanzania Arable 4.52 Increase

Permanent 1.08 Decrease

Other 94.4 Increase

United States Arable 19.13 Decrease

Permanent 0.22 No Impact

Other 80.65 Increase

France Arable 33.53 Decrease

Permanent 2.07 Decrease

Other 64.4 Increase

Wildness Tanzania France USA

Today 9.30% 0.04% 35.89%

2050Decrease

substantially Decrease Slightly

Decrease

Wildness for Tanzania, France, and United States

Source: www.nationmaster.comBy: Amy Yoel, Megan Brisch,Alison Smetana, Ethan Lor

Tanzania will decrease because they are still a developing country. France will decrease slightly because they have used up most of their unprotected land. The USA will decrease because of our increasing population. Not all of the land will be used because the United States has one of the largest masses of preserved land. All of the countries will decrease in wildness because the world population has not reached its carrying capacity.

# 11 WildnessMichelle TentisMegan BrennanRachael Stanze

United States France Tanzania

Wildness 35.89% .04% 9.3%

Current Population

290,342,554 60,180,529 35,922,454

Growth Rate .92% .42% 1.72%

Effect of Pop. On Wildness

in 2050

Because the growth rate is positive in all three countries, the wildness will be depleted

as a result of necessary expansion.

Examine the data you collected

• For each variable, determine the impact of curing malaria and heart disease on that variable.

In developed countries, what happens if we cure heart disease?

• Population

• Consumption

• Quality of life

No significant increase

Increase

Increases life expectancy, but will also increaseheath costs and drain on resources

In developing countries, what happens if we cure malaria?

• Population

• Consumption

• Quality of life

Significant increase

Increase

Increases life expectancy, but will also dramatically increase use of already scarce resources

Impact of Disease on Population

• Which would have a greater impact on world population, curing heart disease or curing malaria?

MALARIA

Parasitologist’s Dilemma

• What happens if we don’t cure malaria?

• What happens if we do cure malaria?

• What could you do to keep population growth low, while still curing malaria?

Death rate stays high, population growth is suppressed

Death rate drops, population grows more rapidly

What could you do to keep population growth low, while still curing malaria?

 Decrease fertility rate per womanLess developed countries 3.05

More developed countries 1.57

Spread out the generationsStart having children at age 30 vs. 15

Birth-controlAbstinence, contraception, sterilization

OtherEducation of women, affluence (wealth)

Why do we want to keep population growth low?

• In many poor countries resources are already scarce.– Tanzania < 2,000 calories per day– France, USA >3,200 calories per day

• If population increases, available food per person decreases.

• This leads to increased pressure on the environment and ecosystems around the world

France Tanzania USA

Consumption

Quality of Life

Is there a correlation between consumption and quality of life?

France Tanzania USA

Consumption Average Low High

Quality of Life Highest Low High

0123456789

10

0 5 10 15

QualityOf Life

Consumption (ecological footprint)

Is the current level of consumption in the US sustainable?

• No, we must import a third of our resources.

Tanzania France USA

Footprint (ha/person) 1.0 7.3 12.2

Actual resources (ha/person) 0.6 7.4 8.0

Net Difference -0.4 +0.1 -4.2

Impact of consumption on the environment

• Consumption by the average American– The US uses 250-300 liters of water/person/day

• for drinking, cooking, bathing, sanitation, and watering yards (the minimum amount needed for those things MINUS the yard watering is 50 liters/person/day).

• In contrast, a country like Tanzania uses less than 5 liters of water/person/day.

– The average American consumed over 200 pounds of red meat, poultry, and fish in 2000.

– The average coffee drinker in the United States drinks 3.1 cups of coffee/day.

Impact of consumption on the environment

• Consumption by the average American– In 2001, the average American produced 4.4 pounds of

garbage waste per day • (product packaging, clothes, food scraps, bottles, grass

clippings, etc., before recycling).

• Compare this to 2.7 pounds of garbage waste/person/day in 1960.

– About 91,286 million liters of soda are consumed/year. This is over 300 liters/person/year!

– In 2001, the United States used 341.8 million Btus of energy/person and emitted 5.5 metric tons of carbon/person.

• In the same year, France used 177.8 million Btus/person and emitted only 1.8 metric tons of carbon.

What is the impact of consumption on the environment?

• To make a single 2 gram computer chip requires– 1.6 liters of fossil fuel– 72 grams of chemicals – 32 kilograms (8 gallons) of water

What is the impact of consumption on the environment?

(compare Tanzania with France/USA)

Tanzania France USA

Pesticide use (kg/hectare) 600 3000 1600

Fertilizer use (kg/hectare) 7 263 112

SO4 produced (tons/km2) 100 1000 1600

Water pollution (tons/km3) 0.1 2.5 1.1

Wilderness remaining 9.3% 0.04% 36%

Ecological footprint 1 7.3 12.2

What is the impact of population density on the environment?

(compare France with the USA)

Tanzania France USA

Pesticide use (kg/hectare) 600 3000 1600

Fertilizer use (kg/hectare) 7 263 112

SO4 produced (tons/km2) 100 1000 1600

Water pollution (tons/km3) 0.1 2.5 1.1

Wilderness remaining 9.3% 0.04% 36%

Population Density (people/km2) 40 110 31

Parasitologist’s Dilemma

• Should we try to cure malaria?

• Given your answer, are there other actions we should take at the same time?

Is there hope?

N

What type of growth is this?

Logistic

What determines K for humans?• Adapt our environment to meet our needs

rather than adapt to our environment.

• Predation– Only ourselves

• Parasites– Sanitation– Medications

• Competition– Mass extinctions

What is K for humans?

K = 1010 people?

Is this sustainable?

r

G

Feeding the world

• World’s farmers have doubled the food supply since 1973– Miracle wheat seeds and high yielding rice– Irrigation– Fertilizers and pesticides– Genetically modified crops– Actually have more food/person than in 1973

Agricultural Production per Person has remained relatively constant

020406080

100120140160180

1970 1980 1990 2000

Year

Nor

mal

ized

to

1970

PopulationFood/personFood

Top 5 countries by population (2003)

1 China 1,286,975,468

2 India 1,049,700,118

3 United States 290,342,554

4 Indonesia 234,893,453

5 Brazil 182,032,604

Population x Consumption = Environmental Impact

Population Consumption

(hect/person)

Impact

(hectares)China 1,286,975,468 1.8 2,316,555,842

India 1,049,700,118 1.0 1,049,700,118

United States

290,342,554 12.7 3,687,350,436

Indonesia 234,893,453 1.5 352,340,180

Brazil 182,032,604 2.6 473,284,770

Sustainable Development:Land Used < Land Available

Impact

(hectares)

Available

(hectares)

Difference

(hectares)China 2,316,555,842 1,544,370,562 -772,185,281

India 1,049,700,118 656,062,574 -393,637,544

United States

3,687,350,436 2,322,740,432 -1,364,610,004

Indonesia 352,340,180 610,722,978 258,382,798

Brazil 473,284,770 1,019,382,582 546,097,812

Ecological impact

• Impact = population X consumption

• Americans consume more per capita than anyone else on earth.

• It would take 3.28 billion Indians to consume what 290 million Americans do.

Sustainable development

• A balance between population and consumption within the limits imposed by nature

• Need to achieve sustainability– Reduction in pop growth in developing nations– Reduction in consumption in developed nations

The End

Population pyramidsfor Tanzania-2000-2025-2050

Population pyramidsfor France-2000-2025-2050

Population pyramidsfor United States-2000-2025-2050

General Pop. Stats. Tanzania France USA

Pop. (in millions) 36.0 59.5 285.9

Infant Mortality

(death/1000 live births)

104 5 8

Fertility rate 5.5 1.7 2.0

Life Expectancy @ birth 46 72 76

Child mortality (per 1000) 159 5 8

Adult mortality (per 1000) 526 97 113

Health expenditure/

capita (Intl. $)

36 2,335 4,499

Growth

(G=r x N)

Tanzania France USA

r (%) 2.9 0.4 1.1

N 35,964,000 59,452,000 285,925,000

G 1,042,956 237,808 3,145,175