Population Change in The Countryside: What Does It Mean for Rural Iowa? J. Gordon Arbuckle, Jr....

Population Change in The Countryside: What Does It

Mean for Rural Iowa?

J. Gordon Arbuckle, Jr.Extension Sociology

Andrea RichGraduate Research Assistant,

SociologyPhoto courtesy of USDA/NRCS

• What are the population trends?• What are some of the factors driving change?• What might those changes mean for rural Iowa, Extension?

Overview

Some definition of terms…

Urban: • Urbanized areas: urban center with greater

than 50,000 people. Core with 1000 people/square mile, and periphery with 500 people/square mile

• Urban clusters: centers with between 2,500 and 50,000 people

Rural:• Everyone who does not reside in urban

areas

Some definition of terms…Metropolitan statistical areas: • Core counties containing urbanized areas• Outlying counties where 25%+ workers

commute to core countiesNonmetro:• Micropolitan areas: counties that have

urban centers of 10,000 people or more• Noncore counties: all the restNote: Metropolitan counties have many

rural residents!

Some definition of terms…

Iowa Rural-Urban Population Trends, 1950-2000

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

2,000,000

1950 1980 1990 2000

Farm

RuralNonfarm

Urban

Rural39%

Urban61%

Rural-Urban Ratio, 2000

Rural-Urban Ratio, 1980-2000

Urban

Rural

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1980 1990 2000

Iowa’s Rural Population, 1940-2000

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 20000

0.5

1

1.5

2Millions

Country Place Farm

Rural non-farm town

under 2,50042%

Rural non-farm open

country43%

Farm15%

Rural Farm, Place, and Open Country, 2000

What’s behind these population shifts?

• Farm population: continuing decline• Rural non-farm population increasing

– Agricultural jobs disappear, but rural residents remain in communities

– Shrinking of small towns increases non-farm population: under 2,500 pop. is rural non-farm

– Newcomers moving into rural communities

Rural Non-Farm Population Change, 1990-2000

D ecrease1-10%11-25%26-50%51% +

12.1%

2.6%

15.5%

7.1%

49.3%

28.0%

27.0%

15.3%

15.9%

10.2%

-5.5% 4.3%

6.3%

9.2%

22.4%

17.0%

10.9%

7.7%

12.5%

20.7%

13.6%

1.9%

29.0%

11.9%

17.0%

46.0%7.4%

11.1%

2.1%

-139.1%

16.3%

4.3%

13.3%

12.3%

20.6%

5.9%

22.6%

10.2%

12.8%

17.2%

9.0%

35.7%

12.1%

16.5%

14.8%

-4.2%

9.8%

14.1%

-24.9%

14.4%

18.2%

22.4%

21.0%

8.3%

8.2%

12.5%

9.6%

11.1%

24.9%

38.5%

13.6% 9.7%25.2%

9.4%

15.0%

11.7%

13.2%

19.9%11.7%

11.7%

13.3%

15.0%

8.4%

15.3%

19.0% 3.0%

13.5%

9.0%

4.3%

9.8%

28.7%

23.7%18.0%

11.2%

14.9%-3.0%

11.4%

13.7%

7.5%

2.7%

21.7% 18.2%

4.0%

4.2%

6.9%22.7%

19.8%

9.0%

54.1%

Lyon

Sioux

Plym outh

W oodbury

Montgom ery

Harrison

Monona

Pottawattam ie

Mills

Fremont Page Taylor Ringgold Decatur W ayne Appanoose Davis

Adam s Union Clarke Lucas Monroe W apello Jefferson

Van Buren

Lee

HenryDes

Moines

Cass Adair Madison W arren Marion Mahaska Keokuk W ashington

Louisa

Muscatine

Scott

Cedar

Clinton

JacksonJonesLinn

Johnson

Osceola

O'Brien

Cherokee

Ida

Dickinson

Clay

Buena Vista

Em m et

Palo Alto

Pocahontas

Sac

Crawford

Shelby Audubon

Carroll

Calhoun

Greene

Guthrie

Kossuth

Hum boldt

W ebster

Boone

Dallas Polk Jasper Poweshiek Iowa

Tam a BentonStory Marshall

Ham ilton Hardin Grundy

Black Hawk Buchanan Delaware Dubuque

W right Franklin Butler Brem er

Fayette Clayton

W inneshiek Allam akeeW innebago

Hancock

W orth

Cerro Gordo

Mitchell

Floyd

Howard

Chickasaw

What’s behind these population shifts?

• Shifting Social Values: Push and Pull– Urban and suburban living no longer epitome

of American dream– “Rural living” drawing people back to country

• Transportation & Commuting – Improved highways and vehicles facilitate

commuting– The line between urban and rural is blurred

as more people travel to metro areas to work

Pull Factors: Amenities

• Amenities can be defined as assets that attract residents and visitors – Natural Amenities – Cultural Amenities

• Quality of life considerations rival economic factors in decisions to stay in, migrate to rural areas

Courtesy of FreeNaturePictures

• Water, Mountains, Forests, Sunshine– Coastlines– Parks and other outdoor recreation

opportunities– Resorts

• Wilderness and open spaces are important draws

• Areas with uncommon natural beauty growing fastest

Natural Amenities

Natural Amenities

• In the Midwest, lakes, rivers, trails, parks are the primary natural amenities

• Natural amenities contribute to growth in population, economic activity, new housing

• People are willing to make economic sacrifices in order to live in places rich in natural amenities

Cultural Amenities: Quality of Life

• Americans feel a sentimental tie to “the rural”– Historic buildings: “Main Street”– Agrarian roots of nation: Farm landscapes

• Quality of life key factor– Safety, quiet, slower pace of life, lower housing costs

• Rural/small town characteristics (social capital)– Residents traditionally have strong ties to their community

and to one another– Rural communities have increased density of

acquaintanceship-people know one another across generations

– Neighborliness: rural residents willing to pitch in when they see a need

Commuting

• Communities within “commuter zones” adjacent to metro areas are growing

• Means by which long time residents can remain in their community

• Allows urban/suburban residents to move to rural areas

• Increased connections between rural and urban areas

MontgomeryMills Adams

Fremont Page Taylor

Union

Ringgold

Clarke

Decatur

MadisonAdairCassPottawattamie

Harrison Shelby Audubon Guthrie Dallas

BooneGreeneCarrollCrawfordMonona

W oodbury

Plymouth

Sioux

Lyon Osceola

O'Brien

Cherokee

Ida Sac

Buena Vista

Clay

Dickinson Emmet

Palo Alto

Pocahontas

Calhoun

W ebster

Humboldt

Kossuth W innebago

Hancock

W right

Hamilton

W orth Mitchell Howard W inneshiek Allamakee

ClaytonFayette

Chickasaw

BremerButler

FloydCerro Gordo

Franklin

Hardin Grundy

Black Hawk Buchanan Delaware

LinnBentonTama

MarshallStory

Polk Jasper Poweshiek Iowa Johnson

Dubuque

Jones Jackson

Clinton

Cedar

Scott

Muscatine

W arren Marion Mahaska Keokuk W ashington

Louisa

Des Moines

Henry

Lee

Jefferson

Van BurenDavis

W apelloMonroe

AppanooseW ayne

Lucas

0-10%11-25%26-50%51% +

Percentage of workers who commute

Positive Impacts of Newcomers

• Social Diversity– Different perspectives and experiences– Can bring new ideas to communities– Focus on preserving cultural and natural resources

• Economic Benefits – Often invest in new enterprises– Networks that extend outside of the receiving

community can bring economic resources and expertise

– Transfer of resources from urban to rural areas

Potential Negative Impacts of Newcomers

• Weakened social solidarity– Possible insider/outsider mentality– Social relationships take time to

develop• Newcomers may be

unprepared for rural life: expectations vs. reality– Odors associated with livestock– Self-provision of water, sewer– Fewer services available

Potential Negative Impacts of Newcomers

• Newcomers’ expectations and objectives may clash with those of long-time residents– preservationism vs. property rights– Environmentalism vs. production– Increased farmland prices

• Increases in population can lead to degradation of conditions and resources that attracted newcomers

Lyon

Sioux

Plym outh

W oodbury

Montgom ery

Harrison

Monona

Pottawattam ie

Mills

Fremont Page Taylor Ringgold Decatur W ayne Appanoose Davis

Adam s Union Clarke Lucas Monroe W apello Jefferson

Van Buren

Lee

HenryDes

Moines

Cass Adair Madison W arren Marion Mahaska Keokuk W ashington

Louisa

Muscatine

Scott

Cedar

Clinton

JacksonJonesLinn

Johnson

Osceola

O'Brien

Cherokee

Ida

Dickinson

Clay

Buena Vista

Em m et

Palo Alto

Pocahontas

Sac

Crawford

Shelby Audubon

Carroll

Calhoun

Greene

Guthrie

Kossuth

Hum boldt

W ebster

Boone

Dallas Polk Jasper Poweshiek Iowa

Tam a BentonStory Marshall

Ham ilton Hardin Grundy

Black Hawk Buchanan Delaware Dubuque

W right Franklin Butler Brem er

Fayette Clayton

W inneshiek Allam akeeW innebago

Hancock

W orth

Cerro Gordo

Mitchell

Floyd

Howard

Chickasaw

Case Study: Cass County

Case Study: Cass County

• 2006 Population : 14,124• Population has decreased, but rural

non-farm population has increased• Low farm income dependence

– Less than 10% of income earned in the county comes from farm sources

Case Study: Cass County

• Key Informant Interviews– School Officials– Real Estate Agents – Economic Development Officials

Commuting

• 84% of Cass County labor force lives in the county– Large draws from Pottawattamie &

Audubon County• 19% of residents commute

– 541 to Omaha/Council Bluffs– 113 to Des Moines – 209 to Montgomery County

Cultural Amenities

• Small town feel– Safety– Relationships with

neighbors– Vounteerism/community

pride

• Services– YMCA– Hospital– Ease of retirement

• Low Cost of living

Natural Amenities

• Living in the Country– Peace– Privacy– Opportunity for animals

• 4-H!

• Natural Amenities – Not mentioned in interviews

Initial Findings: Who’s moving?

• In 2005, 65% of Cass County residents lived in the same home as 2000

• Economic differences affect how welcomed newcomers felt

• Informants believed many newcomers were people moving back rather than moving in

Opportunities Associated with new “Rural Rebound”

• Transfer of income, assets to rural areas

• New entrepreneurship ideas and opportunities– Services, restaurants, shops

• Increased demand for local food systems– New producers, products– Farmers markets– Agritourism

Opportunities Associated with new “Rural Rebound”

• New residents can provide impetus for further development of natural, cultural amenities– Bike trails, natural areas– Historic preservation

• Acreage landowners– Interest in wildlife, habitat

improvement– Alternative agricultural

activities

Courting Newcomers: Greenfield, IA

Things to consider…• Active development of cultural and natural

amenities effective means of retaining residents, attracting newcomers, visitors

• As urban areas grow, so does desire to move to/return to rural areas: people will continue to move in

• Newcomers often have different expectations, can lead to conflict– Environment: consumption vs. production

• Fuel prices and commuting, telecommuting?