Population APHG – Spring 2015

Population Population

APHG – Spring 2015APHG – Spring 2015 http://www.poodwaddle.com/clocks/worldclock

Population pyramids present a quick picture of a country's population distribution by age and sex.

Give the ability to forecast and anticipate future events in a country.

identify past events that might have caused major changes in the population of a country.

Population pyramids

Dependency Ratio

• The number of people who are too young or too old to work, compared to the number of people in their productive years

Dependency Ratio

• 0-15 = Dependents

• 16-64 = Workers

• 65+ = Dependents • DR = Number of Dependents (0-15 and 65+)

Number of Working-age (16-64)X 100

Population under the age of 15 - usually shown as a percentage of the total population of a country - dependency age is 0-15

Gender Ratio

• Gender (Sex) Ratio: number of males per hundred females

• In general more males are born than females

• Males have higher death rates• Examples:

Europe and North America = 95:100 Rest of World = 102:100

Gender Ratio – Developing Countries

• Have large % of young people –where males generally outnumber females

• Lower % of older people – where females are typically more numerous

• High immigration = more males

How to interpret population pyramids

There are 3 main types of pyramids– Rapid growth– Slow growth – Negative growth

Shape of rapidgrowth

Shape of Slow growth

Shape of negative growth

Rapid growth

This type of Population Pyramid is associated with Less Developed or Developing Countries

Sketch image in notes

Rapid growth pyramids

• the large base = high birth rates• Amount of people decreases as the ages

go up (lower standard of living)• poor medical care, low life expectancy,

and poor educational opportunities• Associated with developing countries like Brazil, Uganda, China • Stage two DTM

Slow Growth

Associated with More Developed or Developed Countries Sketch image in notes

Slow growth pyramids

• Takes on a more rectangular shape• population is fairly steady• Birth and death rates are similar• good medical care, well developed

infrastructure, and a long life expectancy• Associated with developed countries like the

UK, US, Canada• Stage three of DTM

Negative growth

Associated with More Developed or Developed CountriesSketch image in notes

Negative growth pyramids• Looks like a reverse pyramid• Indicates the population of the country is

decreasing• Death rates are higher than birth rates• Long life expectancy, well developed economy,

excellent education opportunities for everyone, • Associated with developed countries like Germany, Japan, Italy• Stage four or five of DTM

What would account for the large number of children in the 0-19 age?

End of World War II

THE BABY BOOM!!!

Note the movement of the baby boomers.

Is the US populaiton growing in the next 50 years? Remember, we are developed.

Don’t forget: IMMIGRATION!

Boomers

Can you anticipate what the future holds for one of the world’s most densely populated developing countries?

What accounts for China’s drop in percentage of population growth?

Can you see the major problem China faces now and in the future regarding population?

# of males to females!!!!!!!!!!!!

Boomers.

What does the future hold for the population of Germany?

How will a refusal to allow immigration effect Japan in the future?

What could account for such an unusual shaped populatin pyramid?

There was a shortage of “men” in 1946 as a result of?

1946

1990

Scale of AnalysisScale of Analysis• Depending on the scale, population density changes.Depending on the scale, population density changes.• Dot maps are the best way to show this!Dot maps are the best way to show this!• Largest Scale: Largest Scale: (rural county in the U.S.)- it could (rural county in the U.S.)- it could

show every individual with each dot representing one show every individual with each dot representing one person.person.

• Medium Scale: Medium Scale: (one country)- a dot would be 5,000 (one country)- a dot would be 5,000 people.people.

• Smallest Scale: Smallest Scale: (world) a dot often represents (world) a dot often represents 100,000 people.100,000 people.

Population PatternsPopulation Patterns• Major factor: Race & ethnicity! Both are socially constructed Major factor: Race & ethnicity! Both are socially constructed

terms, defined by beliefs & perceptions.terms, defined by beliefs & perceptions.• People tend to live in areas or neighborhoods with people of People tend to live in areas or neighborhoods with people of

the same race and/or/ethnicity. “Little Italy/Chinatown”the same race and/or/ethnicity. “Little Italy/Chinatown”• Example: CANADA! –2 ethnic groups:Example: CANADA! –2 ethnic groups:• On a NATIONAL SCALE…On a NATIONAL SCALE…

– British Isles origin (28%)British Isles origin (28%)

– French origin (23%)French origin (23%)

– English speakers dominate most of the country.English speakers dominate most of the country.

• On a URBAN SCALE…On a URBAN SCALE…– Quebec is predominantly French-speaking territory.Quebec is predominantly French-speaking territory.– Actually a movement to establish Quebec (province) as a nation Actually a movement to establish Quebec (province) as a nation

separate from the rest of Canada.separate from the rest of Canada.

• Think of the political, economic & social issues here.Think of the political, economic & social issues here.

Distribution of World PopulationDistribution of World PopulationPopulation concentrationsPopulation concentrations

The four largest population clusters (2/3 of world’s The four largest population clusters (2/3 of world’s population)population)1. East Asia – China, Japan, Korean Penn.1. East Asia – China, Japan, Korean Penn.2. South Asia – India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Sri Lanka2. South Asia – India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Sri Lanka3. Southeast Asia – Indonesia, Indochina Penn.3. Southeast Asia – Indonesia, Indochina Penn.4. Europe – Western Europe, Eastern Europe4. Europe – Western Europe, Eastern Europe

Other population clustersOther population clusters1. Northeastern United States1. Northeastern United States2. Southeastern Canada2. Southeastern Canada3. Western Africa – Half live in Nigeria3. Western Africa – Half live in Nigeria

Population Facts & FiguresPopulation Facts & Figures

Population Density

World 6.84 Billion 118 p./sq mi

More Developed 1.2 billion 60 p./sq.mi

Less Developed 5.2 billion 155p./sq.mi

North America 501,500,000 41/sq.mi

South America 379,500,000 73/sq.mi

Europe 727,000,000 134/ sq.mi

Asia 3,879,000,000 303/sq. mi

Africa 877,500,000 70/ sq mi

Australia & Oceania 32,000,000 9/ sq mile

Population DistributionPopulation Distribution

World Population DistributionWorld Population Distribution

World population is very unevenly distributed across the Earth’s surfaceWorld population is very unevenly distributed across the Earth’s surface and it can be compared to climate distribution.and it can be compared to climate distribution.

World Population CartogramWorld Population Cartogram

This cartogram displays countries by the size of their populationThis cartogram displays countries by the size of their population rather than their land area. rather than their land area.

(Only countries with 50 million or more people are named.)(Only countries with 50 million or more people are named.)

Population DistributionPopulation Distribution

Sparsely populated regionsSparsely populated regions

-The ecumene-The ecumene

-People generally avoid:-People generally avoid:Dry landsDry landsCold landsCold landsWet landsWet lands High landsHigh lands

Expansion of the EcumeneExpansion of the Ecumene 5000 B.C.–A.D. 1900 5000 B.C.–A.D. 1900

The ecumene, or the portion of the Earth with permanent human settlement, hasThe ecumene, or the portion of the Earth with permanent human settlement, has expanded to cover most of the world’s land area.expanded to cover most of the world’s land area.

World Population Distribution by Region World Population Distribution by Region 1800–20501800–2050

Theories• Thomas Malthus: English clergyman (1798- Essays on

the Principle of Population)– Population grows geometrically- 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, etc.)– Food supplies (resources) grow arithmetically (1, 2, 3,

4, 5, etc.)• Result being mass starvation unless population is brought

back in balance• Malthusian “checks” on population: wars, famines,

epidemics- want to avoid them? Must limit population voluntarily

• So… don’t help the poor- it will only make more of them– Today- ideas held by Neo-Malthusians

More Theories• Karl Marx- German social philosopher (1818-1883)

• Poverty results from capitalistic inequalities (unequal distribution of resources), so, adopt socialism

• Population growth = greater production of economic commodities, thus better life for all,

• Did not pan out where applied (Soviet Union And China)

• Esther Boserup- agricultural economist (1965)• Population growth stimulates greater intensity in effort and therefore

greater amount of food• Is therefore the stimulant of agricultural development (not the result)

• Cornucopian theory-• disdains the notion that there are natural limits to growth• Believes planet can hold an endless number of human beings and provide

a limitless abundance of natural resources. (even petroleum)

– sometimes called Anti-Malthusians

Overpopulation

• Scale!

• Carrying Capacity

Policies• Pro-natalist

– Formal• Government encourages more births through various

incentives

– Informal• Society/ culture encourages more births through

values

• Anti-natalist– Formal

• Government discourages births through incentives or punishments

– Informal• Society discourages births through encouraging later

marriages, etc.

Fertility• Population Geographers use 2 measures of

fertility: the CBR & TFR. – CBR is “crude” because it reflects childbearing

trends within a society, rather than a specific group.

– CBR Globally...ranges from 6 in European Monoco, to 46 in African countries like Mali, Niger, & Zambia.

– TFR helps gauge family size & predict future population

Fertility• Direct & Indirect factors affect the likelihood

of becoming pregnant.• Direct: biological & behavioral

– Biological: sterility– Behavioral: marriage/union & contraceptive use

• Indirect: cultural, social, economic, & political– Ex. In U.S., it is a financial liability to have

children. Expensive!!!– In LDCs, children are investments because they

can eventually work & contribute income to family

Fertility Trends• Social/Cultural: Contraceptive use is

influenced by both the Catholic Church and Muslim Imams

• Poverty tends to be associated with higher fertility– Lower levels of education– Literacy linked to delays in marriage & childbirth,

as well as lower rates of teen pregnancy.

Population policies

United States Population- 311,050,977 HDI-Very High 4 out of 187

Concerns- The United States is the third most populated country in the world. Our population hit 300 million in 2006. Natural increase drives nearly 60% population growth annually. International immigration accounts for about 40%.

Policy- There is no official policy on population growth.

US 2050

China 2011Population- 1,336,718,015 (July 2011) HDI development- Medium 101 out of 187

•Issues/concerns- Facing serious problems of overpopulation, the Chinese government acted forcefully to reduce the number of children in China.

•Policy- The government initiated a one child policy.

•Exceptions to the rule

•In rural areas, couples with the shortage of labor power or other difficulties were allowed to have a second child, with a minimum three-year gap between the children

•What happens if you do not adhere to the one child policy???

•The couples must obtain prior approval from the government.

•Families with more than one child without government approval had to pay hefty fines. These fines amounted to five to ten percent of their income for up to ten years.

•They can also be denied job promotions and other incentives.

China 2050

Singapore 2011Population- 4,740,737 (July 2011)

HDI- Very High 24 out of 187

• Concerns-The government became very concerned with low population growth after birthrates reached historic lows in the 1980’s.

• Policy- “Have Three or More, if You Can Afford It“ became the government slogan after birthrates became so low.

• A new package of incentives for large families included tax rebates for third children, subsidies for daycare, priority in school enrollment for children from large families, priority in assignment of large families to Housing and Development Board apartments, extended sick leave for civil servants to look after sick children and up to four year

• Government run websites are aimed at encouraging Singapore's young people to get married and have children. The site gives tips on dating and how to behave in a relationship.

• http://edition.cnn.com/2004/WORLD/asiapcf/04/15/asia.babyshortage/index.html

Singapore 2050

Japan 2011Population-126,475,664 (July 2011) HDI- Very High 12 out of 187

Concerns-Since the 1980s the population growth rate has declined sharply.

Policy- In 1994, a program to support child rearing dubbed the ‘Angel Plan’ (its official title being “Basic Direction of Measures in Support of Future Child Rearing”) was initiated.

Some of the incentives given by the government include free health care until the child is three or in some cases five. Women receive congratulatory rewards of up to $5,000 dollars after having the fourth child

Japan 2050

Concerns- Since 1950 the population of India has more than doubled. Current projections predict that India will overtake China as the most populated nation in the world by 2050.

India’s population policy- The most recent approach in India is to focus on the advancement of women economically, socially, and academically as independent women are more likely to have small families.

IndiaPopulation- 1,189,172,906

HDI- Medium 134 out of 187

Concerns- Kenya was the first country in Sub-Saharan Africa to view runaway population growth as a serious impediment to economic growth.

Policies- The official policy calls for matching population size to available resources, yet leaves decisions on family size to individual families. They tend to frame the need for family planning around the self evident realities of poverty and scarcity of jobs.

KENYAPopulation- 41,070,934

HDI- Low 143 out of 187

ItalyPopulation (January 2011 est.): 60.6 million

HDI- Very High 24 out of 187

Concerns- Italy has long had a problem with declining birth rates. Italians age 65 and older currently out number those under age 15. Many women in the country are rethinking their roles as wife or mother, which might have lasting effects on the development of the country.

Policies- The Italian government offers a one-time payment of 1,000 euros (£685) to couples who have a second child.

Concerns- Brazil is the fifth

most populated country in the world and has the highest population of all Latin American countries. Currently parts of the rainforest are being cut down to make room and farmland for the growing population.

Policy- Brazil does not have an official family planning or population policy.

BrazilPopulation- 203,429,773 HDI- High 84 out of 187

Density ProblemsDensity Problems• Depending on the scale, population density changes.Depending on the scale, population density changes.• Dot maps are the best way to show this!Dot maps are the best way to show this!• Largest Scale: Largest Scale: (rural county in the U.S.)- it could (rural county in the U.S.)- it could

show every individual with each dot representing one show every individual with each dot representing one person.person.

• Medium Scale: Medium Scale: (one country)- a dot would be 5,000 (one country)- a dot would be 5,000 people.people.

• Smallest Scale: Smallest Scale: (world) a dot often represents (world) a dot often represents 100,000 people.100,000 people.

Resource AvailabilityResource Availability

Although increasing our level of technology Although increasing our level of technology enables us to extract more resources from enables us to extract more resources from the environment, we do not know if this the environment, we do not know if this process is infinite: there may be a limit to the process is infinite: there may be a limit to the number of resources we can extract from our number of resources we can extract from our planet.planet.

The availability of resources is largely The availability of resources is largely determined by access to technology and determined by access to technology and resources. resources.

Per Capita Annual Renewable Freshwater Availability, 1950, 1995, 2050

Source: Population Action International, Sustaining Water, Erasing Scarcity.

Human Population: Fundamentals of Growth Human Population: Fundamentals of Growth Environmental RelationshipsEnvironmental Relationships

Housing & HungerHousing & Hunger Countries below “The Line,” population is growing faster Countries below “The Line,” population is growing faster

than housing is being built; these countries cannot afford to than housing is being built; these countries cannot afford to build enough housing quickly enough to keep up with the build enough housing quickly enough to keep up with the growing population.growing population.

As this cycle continues, the number of homeless people will As this cycle continues, the number of homeless people will increase. increase.

At the present time, we can grow enough food to feed the At the present time, we can grow enough food to feed the world. However, people go hungry because we cannot world. However, people go hungry because we cannot distribute the food adequately. This problem has a direct distribute the food adequately. This problem has a direct effect on the mental development of children.effect on the mental development of children.

The The Brandt Line Brandt Line is a visual depiction of the North-South divide, proposed is a visual depiction of the North-South divide, proposed by German Chancellor Willy Brandt in the 1980s. It approximately by German Chancellor Willy Brandt in the 1980s. It approximately encircles the world at a latitude of 30encircles the world at a latitude of 30° ° N, passing between North and N, passing between North and Middle America, north of Africa and India, but dipping south so as to Middle America, north of Africa and India, but dipping south so as to include Australia and New Zealand in the “Rich North.”include Australia and New Zealand in the “Rich North.”

The map above showing the north-south divide as been updated recently to The map above showing the north-south divide as been updated recently to include countries like South Africa, Singapore and Taiwan. It was based upon include countries like South Africa, Singapore and Taiwan. It was based upon the Brandt line and shows the more economically developed countries in blue the Brandt line and shows the more economically developed countries in blue and the less economically developed countries in red.and the less economically developed countries in red.Positives of Map:Positives of Map:Simplifies data so that it's easy to understand.Simplifies data so that it's easy to understand.GDP is used which is an easy to access data source.GDP is used which is an easy to access data source.Negatives of Map:Negatives of Map:Doesn't include some countries which are more economically developed.Doesn't include some countries which are more economically developed.Generalized patterns with some countries above the Brandt line less Generalized patterns with some countries above the Brandt line less developed less than some below.developed less than some below.

Medical Care & EducationMedical Care & Education Providing sufficient health care is already a Providing sufficient health care is already a

problem in many places; even the United States problem in many places; even the United States cannot provide health care to all its inhabitants. As cannot provide health care to all its inhabitants. As the global population grows, this problem will, too. the global population grows, this problem will, too.

Worldwide about 8 million babies die annually Worldwide about 8 million babies die annually before their first birthday.before their first birthday.

As countries develop economically, infant mortality As countries develop economically, infant mortality usually declines.usually declines.

Every year, more and more people are illiterate - Every year, more and more people are illiterate - and every year, more of the illiterate are womenand every year, more of the illiterate are women.

Status of WomenStatus of Women

Although women have gained more Although women have gained more political and economic rights in the United political and economic rights in the United States, in most of the rest of the world, States, in most of the rest of the world, women have lost groundwomen have lost ground

Human Population: Fundamentals of Growth Human Population: Fundamentals of Growth The Status of WomenThe Status of Women

Source: Source: Demographic and Health SurveysDemographic and Health Surveys, 1991–1999, 1991–1999

Women's Age at First Marriage (years) and Women's Age at First Marriage (years) and Family Size (TFR) in Selected Countries, Family Size (TFR) in Selected Countries,

1990s1990s

Global Security & WildernessGlobal Security & Wilderness Remember, as population grows, the demand for Remember, as population grows, the demand for

resources grows. If there is a limit to the amount of resources grows. If there is a limit to the amount of resources, competition for what is available will resources, competition for what is available will increase, which will threaten political and economical increase, which will threaten political and economical infrastructures.infrastructures.

The more population grows, the more difficult it is to The more population grows, the more difficult it is to maintain wilderness area. maintain wilderness area.

It is hard to preserve wilderness in poor areas: food and It is hard to preserve wilderness in poor areas: food and money!money!

Patterns of World UrbanizationPatterns of World UrbanizationQ&A: What are the social implications of rapid population

growth in less developed countries? Rural, dependent on agriculture and hunting for survival. In 1800, only 3% of the world’s population lived in urban

areas. 1900, almost 14% were urbanites, only 12 cities had 1

million or more people. 1950’s, 30% of the world’s population resided in urban

centers. 83 cities had over 1 million 2000, about 47% of the world’s population lived in urban

areas(2.8 Billion) 411 cities over 1 million Developed nations are about 76% urban 40% of residents of less developed countries live in

urban areas

Future Urbanization PatternsFuture Urbanization Patterns 2030, 60% of the world’s population will be urban Most urban growth will occur in less developed

countries.

Q&A: What is an urban area?

Any place with a population of 2500 + urban; some set a minimum of 20,000.

2000, 39% of the world’s urbanites lived in agglomerations of 1 million15% resided in agglomerations of 5 million or

more.8% of Americans live in cities of 1 million or more.

MegacitiesMegacities 10 Million habitants = megacities 1950: 8cities had populations of 5 million or

more 2 of them in less developed countries 2000: 41 2015, 59 megacities will exist, 48 in less

developed countries 1950, only one city had more than 10 million

people 2015, 23 cities are projected to hold over 10

million people; all but four will be in less developed countries.

Largest Urban Agglomerations, 1950, 2000, 2015Largest Urban Agglomerations, 1950, 2000, 2015

Source: United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects, The 1999 Revision

Top 10 Largest Urban Agglomerations Top 10 Largest Urban Agglomerations in 1950, 2000, 2015in 1950, 2000, 2015

1950 2000 20151. New York, USA 12.3 1. Tokyo, Japan 26.4 1. Tokyo, Japan 26.4

2. London, England 8.7 2. Mexico City, Mex. 18.4 2. Bombay, India 26.1

3. Tokyo, Japan 6.9 3. Bombay, India 18.0 3. Lagos, Nigeria 23.2

4. Paris, France 5.4 4. Sao Paulo, Brazil 17.8 4. Dhaka, Bang. 21.1

5. Moscow, Russia 5.4 5. New York, USA 16.6 5. Sao Paulo, Bra 20.4

6. Shanghai, China 5.3 6. Lagos, Nigeria 13.4 6. Karachi, Pakistan 19.2

7. Essen, Germany 5.3 7. Los Angeles 13.1 7. Mex. City, Mex. 19.2

8. Buenos Aires, Arg 5.0 8. Calcutta, India 12.9 8. New York, USA 17.4

9. Chicago, USA 4.9 9. Shanghai, China 12.9 9. Jakarta,Indonesia17.3

10. Calcutta, India 4.4 10.Buenos Aires, Arg 12.6 10. Calcutta, India 17.3

Source: United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects, The 2005 Revision

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sc4HxPxNrZ0

Growth of Urban Agglomerations, 1950–2015Growth of Urban Agglomerations, 1950–2015

Epidemiologic Transition:Epidemiologic Transition:World Health ThreatsWorld Health Threats

Stage 1: Stage 1: Pestilence and famineStage of pestilence and famineStage of pestilence and famineInfectious and parasitic diseases were principal Infectious and parasitic diseases were principal

causes of deathcauses of deathBlack PlagueBlack PlaguePandemicsPandemics

Stage 2: Stage 2: Receding pandemicsStage of receding pandemicsStage of receding pandemicsOccurs over a wide geographic areaOccurs over a wide geographic areaEffects a high proportion of the populationEffects a high proportion of the populationCholeraCholera

Why Might Overpopulation be a Concern?Why Might Overpopulation be a Concern?

Cholera in Cholera in London, 1854London, 1854

Stage 2: Stage 2: Receding Receding pandemicspandemics

Cholera Cholera and and Dr. John Dr. John SnowSnow

By mapping the distribution of cholera cases and water pumps in Soho, London, By mapping the distribution of cholera cases and water pumps in Soho, London, Dr. John Snow identified the source of the waterborne epidemic.Dr. John Snow identified the source of the waterborne epidemic.

Epidemiologic TransitionEpidemiologic Transition Stage 3: Stage 3: Degenerative diseasesDegenerative diseases

Degenerative and human created diseasesDegenerative and human created diseasesDecrease in deaths from infectious diseases and Decrease in deaths from infectious diseases and

an increase in disorders associated with agingan increase in disorders associated with agingCardiovascular disease and cancerCardiovascular disease and cancer

Stage 4: Stage 4: Delayed degenerative diseasesDelayed degenerative diseasesDelayed degenerative diseasesDelayed degenerative diseasesHeart diseases and cancerHeart diseases and cancerLife is extended through medical advancesLife is extended through medical advances

Epidemiologic TransitionEpidemiologic Transition Stage 5: Stage 5: Reemergence of infectious diseases?Reemergence of infectious diseases?

Stage of reemergence of infectious and parasitic diseasesStage of reemergence of infectious and parasitic diseases Evolution of diseasesEvolution of diseases PovertyPoverty TravelTravel MalariaMalaria TuberculosisTuberculosis SARSSARS AIDSAIDS

– Three reasons why it might be happening:Three reasons why it might be happening:» EvolutionEvolution» PovertyPoverty» Improved travelImproved travel

HIV/AIDS Prevalence Rates, HIV/AIDS Prevalence Rates, 20112011

The highest HIV infection rates are in sub-Saharan Africa. India and ChinaThe highest HIV infection rates are in sub-Saharan Africa. India and China have large numbers of cases, but lower infection rates at present.have large numbers of cases, but lower infection rates at present.

Up Next: MigrationUp Next: Migration

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