Population and the Environment. Arithmetic vs. geometric growth Arithmetic growth 1, 2, 3, 4, 5…...

Population and the Environment

Arithmetic vs. geometric growth

• Arithmetic growth• 1, 2, 3, 4, 5…

• Geometric growth (exponential)• 2, 4, 8, 16, 32…

(Cunningham et. al: Environmental Science: A Global Concern)

Population growth

• 2 to 6,600,000,000 last century

• 1B/decade 100M/year 300K/day

• 1 NYC/month• 296B in 150 years!

(Cunningham et. al: Environmental Science: A Global Concern)

Carrying capacity

• Overshoot• Dieback “crash”• Increase w/ technology,

but sustainable?• What is Earth’s

sustainable CC?

(Cunningham et. al: Environmental Science: A Global Concern)

Fertility rates (replacement is 2.1)

(Rubenstein: Introduction to Human Geography)

Questions to think about

• Why are we growing so fast?• Why should we be concerned?• People are good aren’t we?• How does population affect the environment?• What needs to be done?

(Pojman: Population: General Considerations)

Growth causes

• Higher fertility rate & lower death rate• Industrial Revolution

• Fossil fuel & combustion engine

• Agricultural advances• Fertilizer, irrigation & genetics

• Medical, health & sanitation revolution• Vaccines, antibiotics, nutrition, sewage, cleaner water, etc.

• Socioeconomic, religious & primal instinct factors

(Newton and Dillingham: The Human Family Grows: Population as a Problem)

Malthus vs. Condorcet

• Geometric pop. growth• Arithmetic subsistence

growth • Overshoot CC• Starvation, disease

& resource wars

• Advance in technology = more improvement

• Moral advancement • Women's rights

(Pojman: Population and the Environment)

Optimist

• More people = more brains = more progress• Healthcare, economic opportunity & technology• Creative resources are infinite

(Newton and Dillingham: The Human Family Grows: Population as a Problem)

Pessimist

• More people = more pollution & global warming• Irreplaceable resources

• Air, water, soil, species, etc.

• Agricultural & economic collapse• Creative resources aren’t infinite• Brains like Einstein or Mozart are very rare

• Geniuses need education & food too

(Newton and Dillingham: The Human Family Grows: Population as a Problem)

Current consequences

• Water depletion & pollution (33%)

• Soil degradation (43%)• Deforestation• Biodiversity

• Extinction (27,000/ yr.)

• Famines • Unemployment• 2B malnourished (½

children)• Resource depletion

• US oil: 15 yrs• World oil: 50 yrs

(Newton and Dillingham: The Human Family Grows: Population as a Problem)

Overcrowding stress

• Intense competition • Psychological, physical and behavioral changes• Weakened immunity, aggression, cannibalism,

arteriosclerosis and increased mortality • Symptoms include abnormal adrenal glands &

deterioration of circulatory system, kidney and liver

(Cunningham et. al: Environmental Science: A Global Concern)

Women and population• Historically suppressed &

regarded as inferior• Men & religion control

reproductive rights, education and career opportunity

• No independence

• Islam ”Men are above women because Allah has given the one superiority above the other”

• Confucius ”one hundred girls are not worth one boy”

• Hinduism ”A woman must never enjoy independence”

• Christianity ”The women shall be vassals to their men who are their masters”

Family planning

• 97% of growth in poor nations with little access to reproductive services

• AID found many women want to limit pregnancies

• Funding cuts and “gag rule”

(Cunningham et. al: Environmental Science: A Global Concern)

Consumption and the environment• I = PAT• Hunter gatherer

• 2,500 calories • Modern American

• 186,000 calories• Equivalent to sperm whale

• US most overpopulated in this context• Rich vs. poor nations

(Pojman: Population General Considerations )

Disproportionate consumption

• US has 4.5% pop.• Use 33% of all resources• Produce 75% toxic waste

& 33% total waste• Produce the most

greenhouse emissions

• Waste 200,000T edible food/d

• Eat 200B extra calories/d (feed 80 million)

• 1/3+ overweight & spend $30B/yr on diets

• Justifiable?

(Pojman: Population General Considerations)

Death context

• 3,200 died tragically on 911• Relatively unpreventable• Over $5 billion in aid

• 33,000 children die/d unnecessarily from malnutrition and poverty-related disease• Easily preventable• 15-25 cents/d would save the majority

• Political & religious authorities moral and pro-life?

(Pojman: Hunger, Duty, and Ecology: On What We Owe Starving Humans)

Consumption of meat

• Health• Consumption increases risk

of degenerative diseases• Heart disease, obesity,

diabetes & cancer • Fat deposits in arteries of

typical US child by age 3 & 70% by age 12

• Greed & God?

• Morality • Death of animals & people

• 13 lbs. grain/ lb. meat• 22MT seeds produced in

US, 20MT fed to livestock• 90% net loss 14 MT

protein

(Pojman: Hunger, Duty, and Ecology: On What We Owe Starving Humans)

Consumption solutions

• Progressive policies• Simple

• Reduce consumption• Recycle waste• Eat less meat • Buy used stuff• Don’t waste

• Advanced• Less children• Invest in sustainable

businesses• Consider impact of

decisions and actions• Refocus reality away from

material happiness

Population solutions

• Halt & reverse growth to sustainable level• Serious political & religious debate and reform• Socioeconomic empowerment

• Educational & employment opportunities• Social security systems• Family planning services

• Environmentally sustainable development

(Newton and Dillingham: The Human Family Grows: Population as a Problem)

Easter Island history• Initially lush forest, fertile

soil & abundant wildlife• Overpopulation• Deforestation • Soil & water depletion• Extinction of wildlife• Chaos and warfare• Cannibalism reduced

population by 90%

• Why didn’t they control their population?

• Why didn’t they conserve their resources?

• Will we follow the same course?

• Should we be optimists, pessimists or both?

(Cunningham et. al: Environmental Science: A Global Concern)

Henry Kendall of MIT- ”If we don’t control the population with justice,

humanity, and mercy, it will be done for us by nature-brutally.”

HIV/AIDS

(Rubenstein: Introduction to Human Geography)

Mexican immigration

• Destabilize employment and economy?• Overcrowding• Higher resource and environmental pressures• More native blood = more right to land &

resources?

Religious leaders

• Hindu god Rama: two daughters • Buddha: one son• Jainism prophet Mahavira: one daughter• Confucius: one son• Taoism founder Loa-tzu: no children• Moses: two sons• Jesus Christ: no children• Islamic prophet Mohammed: one daughter