Photo: Henrik Dreisler WII Hacks For Participatory Planning Cape Cod: 2030 Photo: Henrik Dreisler...

Photo: Henrik Dreisler WII Hacks For Participatory Planning

Cape Cod: 2030

Photo: Henrik Dreisler

Wii Hacks for Participatory Planning

Interactive Climate Change Scenario Planning using

CommunityViz and other Low Cost Tools

Photo: Henrik Dreisler WII Hacks For Participatory Planning

Jason LallyDi rec to r o f t he Dec i s i on Labja son@p lacemat te r s . o rg

Amy AndersonLead P l ann ing Consu l ta n tamy@p laceways . com

Photo: Henrik Dreisler WII Hacks For Participatory Planning

Volpe Center

*Figures are for energy consumption only; they do not reflect life-cycle emissions associated with resource use, emissions from Canal Plant, emissions attributable to combustion of MSW; emissions from land use; etc.

Energy Use (KTOE)

Population

Cape & Islands

Congo

Cape & Islands

Congo

Chris Powicki, Water Energy & Ecology Information Services

Photo: Henrik Dreisler WII Hacks For Participatory Planning

(modified after Rahmstorf, 2007; AR4 data from Bindoff, 2007)

IPCC AR4A1B envelope

(modified after Rahmstorf, 2007; AR4 data from Bindoff, 2007)

Rob Thieler,USGS at Woods Hole

Bluff erosionOverwash

Island Breaching

Threshold Crossing

Urban Inundation

R. Carlson

Wetland Loss

Water Quality Reduction

Ecosystem Change

Infrastructure Failure

Listed Species Impacts

Rob Thieler,USGS at Woods Hole

Photo: Henrik Dreisler WII Hacks For Participatory Planning

Tom Cambareri , Cape Cod Commission

Photo: Henrik Dreisler WII Hacks For Participatory Planning

8.5 pounds nitrogen*

85%** *Average 3-bed home discharge of nitrogen into groundwater per year

**Percent of 156,000 homes presently on septic

Tom Cambareri , Cape Cod Commission

Photo: Henrik Dreisler WII Hacks For Participatory Planning

Cape Cod Pilot Project PhasesBeginning Phase

Site selectionDevelopment of scope of workFormation of planning group and technical committeeData collection

Second PhaseExpert elicitation on climate change impactsCreation of GHG reduction strategiesConsultation RFP; selection of consultant

Photo: Henrik Dreisler WII Hacks For Participatory Planning

Cape Cod Pilot Project PhasesWorkshops

Identification and invitation of stakeholdersDevelopment of initial and preferred scenariosFollow-up analysis and modeling

End PhaseImplementation/action plansGuidebook for future implementation

Photo: Henrik Dreisler WII Hacks For Participatory Planning

Cape Cod: 2030

Photo: Henrik Dreisler

Scenarios for Land Use and Transportation

Photo: Henrik Dreisler WII Hacks For Participatory Planning

About scenario planning

Five scenarios

Photo: Henrik Dreisler WII Hacks For Participatory Planning

Scenario Planning

The New Yorker Magazine/Zeigler 2004

DecisionMakers

Uncertain Choices

Uncertain Outcomes

Uncertain Information

Photo: Henrik Dreisler WII Hacks For Participatory Planning

Cape Cod 2010 2030

2010

?Choices,Actions

Indicators

A+ B B C-

B B- A A-

C+ B+ C A

B- A+ D C-

A B- B+ B

2030

Scenarios

Photo: Henrik Dreisler WII Hacks For Participatory Planning

1. It’s a computer. Computers know everything.

How do we know what will happen?

?

Choices,Actions

2. Enough information and good information.

3. We may be a little off. But that’s okay.

Photo: Henrik Dreisler WII Hacks For Participatory Planning

Working with scenarios

• What do we like, or not?

• What’s most important?

• What if we make adjustments?• Would it matter if our models

changed?

Refined Choice

Photo: Henrik Dreisler WII Hacks For Participatory Planning

Is and Isn’t

Education and insightsExploring a wide range of optionsUnderstanding trade-offsDirectional decisions

Is Good For

Forecasting or predictionEngineering-level precision

Isn’t Meant For

Photo: Henrik Dreisler WII Hacks For Participatory Planning

Scenario Planning Tool

®

A project of

Promoting informed, collaborative decision-making since 2001.

In partnership with

Photo: Henrik Dreisler WII Hacks For Participatory Planning

About scenario planning

Five scenarios

Photo: Henrik Dreisler WII Hacks For Participatory Planning

Cape Cod 2010 2030

?

Transportation

Enhanced

Standard

Transportation

2030

Pre-run Scenarios

Development

Dispersed

Targeted

Trend

Enhanced

Standard

Photo: Henrik Dreisler WII Hacks For Participatory Planning

Sketching Initial Scenarios

• Purposely extreme• Highlight key variables

– Development patterns– Transportation

Photo: Henrik Dreisler WII Hacks For Participatory Planning

Growth assumptions for all scenarios• 20 year horizon: Year 2030

• + 28,000 households– Average of 2.25 persons per household– Year-round population: 221,000 284,000– Summer (peak) population: 480,000 543,000– All growth is in year-round population

• + 16,500 jobs– Jobs: 97,000 113,500

Photo: Henrik Dreisler WII Hacks For Participatory Planning

Transportation Choices

Standard• Today plus…• Train to Boston• 1 new bus route• Other planned

improvements

Enhanced• Standard plus…• More bus stops• Higher frequency• Pedestrian and bicycle

improvements in dense areas

Photo: Henrik Dreisler WII Hacks For Participatory Planning

Cape Cod: 2030

Photo: Henrik Dreisler

Workshop Exercises & Techniques

Photo: Henrik Dreisler WII Hacks For Participatory Planning

Town planners

CCC staff

Federal agencies

Photo: Henrik Dreisler WII Hacks For Participatory Planning

Photo: Henrik Dreisler WII Hacks For Participatory Planning

Choose your top two issues:

1. Water quality and supply2. Reduce traffic and vehicle miles traveled 3. Access to services and employment4. Avoid development in hazard areas5. Reduce the Cape’s greenhouse gas emissions and

air pollution6. Avoid development in critical habitat or

conservation areas7. Protect the integrity of historic preservation

districts8. Increase access to transit and nonmotorized

modes

Photo: Henrik Dreisler WII Hacks For Participatory Planning

Choose your top two issues:

Wate

r Quali

ty an

d Supply

Avoid Dev

elopmen

t in Criti

cal Hab

itat a

nd Conserva

tion Areas

Reduce

Traffic a

nd VMT

Avoid Dev

elopmen

t in Haza

rd Area

s

Reduce

Cape's

GHG Emiss

ions and Air P

ollution

Increase

Access

to Tran

sit an

d Non-motoriz

ed Veh

icles

Access

to Servi

ces an

d Employe

ment

Protec

t Integ

rity o

f Hist

orical

Preserv

ation Area

s0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

40%

16%13%

10%9%

7%

4%1%

Polling Results

Photo: Henrik Dreisler WII Hacks For Participatory PlanningConcept Mapping

Photo: Henrik Dreisler WII Hacks For Participatory Planning

Photo: Henrik Dreisler WII Hacks For Participatory Planning

Photo: Henrik Dreisler WII Hacks For Participatory Planning

Cape Cod: 2030

Photo: Henrik Dreisler

LessonsLearned

Photo: Henrik Dreisler WII Hacks For Participatory Planning

Lessons Learned

Things to Improve on• More time is better• Make sure reliable transportation data

on the current and trend exist• Periodic status checks are helpful• 2 facilitators per table

– 1 technical– 1 discussion leader

• Test EVERYTHING ahead of time

Photo: Henrik Dreisler WII Hacks For Participatory Planning

Lessons Learned

Reaffirmed Beliefs• Having the live data is invaluable

to the process• The simpler the interaction, the

better• Less resolution can be a good

thing for regional level• Don’t expect to walk away with

“the answer” in 1 day• People want to get involved

Photo: Henrik Dreisler WII Hacks For Participatory Planning

Jason LallyDi rec to r o f t he Dec i s i on Labja son@p lacemat te r s . o rg

Tw: @thep lacemat te r sTw: @synch ronousc i t yFb : h t tp : / / f b .me /p l acemat te r sB l : h t tp : / / b l og .p l acema t te r s . o rg

Amy AndersonLead P l ann ing Consu l ta n tamy@p laceways . com

W: h t tp : / / p l a ceways . comW: h t tp : / / commun i tyv i z . com