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© 2016 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Greg Selby
Electric Power Research Institute
NDE Technology Week 2016
Savannah
Perspectives on
NDE Reliability
2© 2016 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Topics
EPRI human factors research
IGSCC requalification
US initiatives correlation to BAM modular reliability model
Future research directions
Reminder of 7th European-American Workshop on Reliability of NDE (2017)
Discussion
EPRI – Electric Power Research Institute
IGSCC – Intergranular stress corrosion cracking
US – United States
BAM – Bundesanstalt für Materialforschung und –prüfung
3© 2016 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
EPRI human factors research
We have defined a four-year program
– We are in the very early stages!
– Program began in 2016
– We are still figuring out what to do
Our focus
– NDE in commercial nuclear power plant (NPP) applications
– Initial focus: manual application of UT on piping welds
Our collaborator
– Part of the work will be in collaboration with the US Nuclear Regulatory
Commission (NRC) research office
4© 2016 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Our resources EPRI human factors research
Huge reservoir of experience in laboratory NDE and performance
qualification of UT for nuclear power applications
Access
– To all the operational experience (OE)
in the US nuclear industry
– To all the players
NPP owner executives, managers and
personnel responsible for NDE
NDE companies’ executives,
managers and technicians
Regulators
Radiation management peopleNPP – nuclear power plant
5© 2016 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
We don’t have any human factors (HF)
experts in our staff
There’s some prior research available,
but not a lot that’s directly applicable
It’s hard to study
– How do you observe workers in the field,
when they are on critical path in a radiation area?
– It’s probably not practical to realistically simulate the work environment
in all its aspects
Nobody likes change
– Everyone wants more reliability, but also they are thinking
“what are you going to do to us?”
Our challenges EPRI human factors research
It’s complicated.
6© 2016 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Engagement with our NRC collaborators
– They have HF experts!
– They have visited EPRI to see how manual UT technicians are qualified by practical examination
– They have observed manual UT as it is performed in the field
Engaged HF contractor
– A few months’ work to frame the problem
– Report due in October
– Next slides describe what they’re doing
Our initial steps EPRI human factors research
NRC – US Nuclear Regulatory Commission
HF – Human factors
EPRI – Electric Power Research Institute
7© 2016 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
2016 objective: Characterize human factors differences in manual UT between controlled laboratory and in-field environments
Developed an ‘NDE world’
– People – their functions, but also how they feel about their work and about their co-workers
Level III – the wise old expert
Level II – the experienced technician
Level I – the eager beginner
– Routines – ‘a day in the life’
– Scenarios
Routine exam, no flaws
Pressure – did we find a crack?
HF framing research EPRI human factors research
8© 2016 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
HF framing research EPRI human factors research
The qualification world
can be quite different
from the real world
9© 2016 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Factor Lab Field
Fine Motor Optimal weld positioning Awkward position – overhead, for example
Gross
MotorComfortable position
Awkward and changing position; must hold tools;
personal safety
Perceptual
- Excellent lighting
- Directed attention (single focus)
- Quiet room, nice temperature
- High alertness due to new environment
and performance anxiety
- Lighting not optimal, shadows
- Distracting sounds/sights/vibrations
- Noisy factory environment
- May be hot
- Variable daily alertness/fatigue
Cognitive
- It’s a test, I know that there are many
flaws!
- I must pass to get or keep my job!
- Flaws are rare -- search fatigue
- Stress to maintain vigilance
- Time pressure – production radiation dose
Social
- Stress due to observer
- Limited communication due to testing
context
- Not observed, part of everyday job
- Social penalty for requesting help?
- Working in isolation, (maybe with headset)
HF framing research EPRI human factors research
10© 2016 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Topics
EPRI human factors research
IGSCC requalification
US initiatives correlation to BAM modular reliability model
Future research directions
Reminder of 7th European-American Workshop on Reliability of NDE (2017)
Discussion
EPRI – Electric Power Research Institute
IGSCC – Intergranular stress corrosion cracking
US – United States
BAM – Bundesanstalt für Materialforschung und –prüfung
11© 2016 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
IGSCC requalification
– IGSCC – intergranular stress corrosion cracking
– Has been an issue in US NPP since 1980s
– Qualification established 1983
Practical demonstration on cracked specimens
Requalification administered every three years
Near-term challenge IGSCC requalification
NP
P –
Nu
cle
ar
po
we
r p
lan
ts
12© 2016 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Today IGSCC is much less common – it’s been detected and repaired
Industry has discovered that since the mid-1990s there really has been no regulatory commitment to perform requalification
Industry wants to replace the requalification with some other activity that will be easier and cheaper
Near-term challenge IGSCC requalification
IGSCC – Intergranular stress corrosion cracking
“Qualification testing”
13© 2016 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Both industry and regulator believe that the three-year requalification serves an
important function in maintaining the proficiency of the examiners
– For most examiners, this is the only time they see real IGSCC
The replacement activity must have equivalent (or better) proficiency
maintenance value
There are many ways to help examiners maintain their proficiency for IGSCC,
but…
How to measure it? Without a research program that costs even more than the
requalification program?
We don’t have an answer yet, but here’s the plan ...
Near-term challenge IGSCC requalification
IGSCC – Intergranular stress corrosion cracking
14© 2016 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Project Overview IGSCC requalification
A project has been launched to:
– Eliminate the current IGSCC and weld overlay requalification processes
– Ensure examiner proficiency and NDE reliability
are maintained at a high level
– Establish a technical basis and change management plan
Includes a focus group
– Provide input, direction, and oversight for the project
– Manage communications with the regulator,
utility executives, and the industry
– Determine and define the examiner proficiency benefits
provided by the current requalification process
– Ensure that any alternative process is as effective,
or is more effective IGSCC – Intergranular stress corrosion cracking
15© 2016 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Key Activities IGSCC requalification
Review previous projects that improved examiner
proficiency
Identify all current proficiency maintenance processes
Identify gaps in the present processes
Review available virtual mockup technology
Define success
Establish a change management plan and schedule
– There may be an intermediate step, to consolidate the process for
personnel who maintain multiple qualifications
Define research necessary to support a technical basis
(expert opinion will not suffice)
Publish a final Technical Report with technical basis
Objective:
Institute a new
process for ensuring
examiner
proficiency;
eliminate
requalification
testing for
IGSCC detection,
IGSCC sizing,
Weld overlay
examination
IGSCC – Intergranular stress corrosion cracking
16© 2016 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Topics
EPRI human factors research
IGSCC requalification
US initiatives correlation to BAM modular reliability model
Future research directions
Reminder of 7th European-American Workshop on Reliability of NDE (2017)
Discussion
EPRI – Electric Power Research Institute
IGSCC – Intergranular stress corrosion cracking
US – United States
BAM – Bundesanstalt für Materialforschung und –prüfung
17© 2016 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
BAM Modular Reliability Model
Intrinsic Capability
– Physics
Application Parameters
– Application in the real
world
Human Factors
– Those humans again …
Organisational Context
– Business and
operational impacts
BAM – Bundesanstalt für Materialforschung und –prüfung
18© 2016 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
BAM model and NPP NDE in the US
BAM – Bundesanstalt für Materialforschung und –prüfung
NPP – Nuclear power plant
US – United States
The US isn’t using the BAM model (yet)
But the BAM model is built on good common
sense
In any NDE environment, anywhere,
we can look at efforts to improve reliability,
and look at gaps in good reliability practice,
and map them to the BAM model
In US NPP recently many NDE reliability
improvements have been made in response to
NDE failures, and in the next slides we will
perform that mapping
19© 2016 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Mapping to the BAM model BAM model and US NPP
Probe
verification
(receipt
inspection)
Intrinsic capability
Very little change
The techniques work
well; they simply
weren’t applied
correctly, or didn’t
match the field
condition
BAM – Bundesanstalt für Materialforschung und –prüfung
NPP – Nuclear power plant
US – United States
20© 2016 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Mapping to the BAM model BAM model and US NPP
Plant walkdown
Simulation on
mockups
Application
Parameters
Make sure that you
really understand the
configuration
– Does it match the
NDE procedures that
you plan to apply?
BAM – Bundesanstalt für Materialforschung und –prüfung
NPP – Nuclear power plant
US – United States
21© 2016 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Mapping to the BAM model BAM model and US NPP
Improved written procedures
Pre-job brief
Hands-on practice
Awareness of relevant OE
Proper use of team scanning
Sense of the urgency and importance of the
inspection
Human Factors
A much longer list
BAM – Bundesanstalt für Materialforschung und –prüfung
NPP – Nuclear power plant
US – United States
22© 2016 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Mapping to the BAM model BAM model and US NPP
Effective long-term planning
Preparation far in advance
Communicating expectations to
NDE company and technicians
Selection of NDE technologies
Contingency planning
Change management
Crisis management
Organizational Context
might be the most important factor of allBAM – Bundesanstalt für Materialforschung und –prüfung
NPP – Nuclear power plant
US – United States
23© 2016 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Organizational Context: BAM model and US NPP
advance planning for a reliable examination24 months
Day of exam
- Examination plan and scope
- MRP or BWRVIP guidance
- Walkdowns at N-1 outage
- Review T & Cs, procedure
options
- Procedure qualification review
- Prepare bid specification
- Vendor selection
- Detailed procedure qual
review and coverage calc
- Plan alternative techniques or
site specific quals as needed
- Scope and coverage
review with vendor
- Review plans for
alternative techniques or
site-specific quals
- Review equipment
selection & status
- Establish work plans to
support surface
conditioning, and
contingency exams
- Review qual status with
vendor
- Review status of
alternative or site-
specific quals
- Review equipment
availability & status
- Retrieve and review
previous examination data
- Obtain data analysis
software; train personnel for
data review and oversight
- Review status of:
- Procedure, alternative technique, or site-
specific qualifications
- Work plans for additional surface
conditioning and contingency
examinations
- Personnel availability, qualifications, training
- Equipment availability
- Review previous automated data for
assessment of previous conditions,
indications and contact
- Readiness
review with
vendor
- Identify
actions to
address any
issues identified
in readiness
review
- Prepare pre-job brief
- Verify:
- Procedure and personnel
qualifications
- Personnel training, availability,
contingencies
- Equipment availability,
contingencies
- Plan to perform vendor oversight
- Site support readiness
- Complete pre-
job brief
- Address any
actions resulting
from pre-job
brief
- Perform additional surface
preparation as required by
examination personnel
- Complete prompt review and
disposition of examination
results
- Perform rescans in a timely
manner as required by
examination personnel
- Implement examination
contingencies, if required
18 months 12 months 6 months
3 months 2 months 1 month 1 day
Post-exam
- Perform post-job
briefing and
document results
- Update inservice
inspection
documentation
Major themes:
Communication
Readiness reviews
24© 2016 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
More Organizational Context BAM model and US NPP
There are problems even when the NDE is done correctly
The problems arise because many people who are affected by the NDE results,
do not understand NDE processes;
this results in terrible pressures for the NDE team
“Hey, I might have found a
crack. Give us some time
to work through the
process to see if it’s real.”
US – United States
NPP – Nuclear power plant
BAM – Bundesanstalt für Materialforschung und –prüfung
25© 2016 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
NDE process: Flowchart to keep management calm
“Nondestructive Evaluation: Indication Characterization,
Evaluation, and Disposition Guideline”, 1025225 on epri.com
26© 2016 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Organizational Context: BAM model and US NPP
Influence of the NPP owner
A good practice being adopted by some US NPP owners
– Senior managers and executives responsible for the inspection participate in the pre-job briefs
– They make sure that the examiners understand the company’s expectations
We want you to find flaws
We expect flaws and are ready to deal with them
Do not worry about any consequences
When you are done inspecting a weld, we want you to feel that you have done the best inspection you can
If you need any additional help or informationto do a better job, just ask
US – United States
NPP – Nuclear power plant
BAM – Bundesanstalt für Materialforschung und –prüfung
27© 2016 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
NDE technicians should not think that this will happen
if they find a crack or make a false call
28© 2016 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Topics
EPRI human factors research
IGSCC requalification
US initiatives correlation to BAM modular reliability model
Future research directions
Reminder of 7th European-American Workshop on Reliability of NDE (2017)
Discussion
EPRI – Electric Power Research Institute
IGSCC – Intergranular stress corrosion cracking
US – United States
BAM – Bundesanstalt für Materialforschung und –prüfung
29© 2016 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
How is everything interconnected?
29
30© 2016 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Many sub-systems, all interacting
Perhaps the most
complex of all
31© 2016 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
How to put the sub-systems together?
1 2
P(G)=P(1)*P(2)
P(T)=1-((1-P(1))*(1-P(2))
1
2
P(T)=P(IC)*P(AP)*P(HF) ± CP(IC, AP, HF)
IC AP HF
DP1DP2
DP3
IC AP HF2
HF1
HF3
DP1
DP2
DP3
P(T)=P(IC)*P(AP)*[1-((1-P(HF1)*(1-P(HF2))*(1-P(HF3))] ± CP(HF1, HF2, HF3)
32© 2016 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Previous slide shows analytical probability approach
What about a random-sampling probabilistic approach?
Considering Monte Carlo analysis
– Where do we get the input distributions?
– Mostly we will have to guess
My opinion:
– We’ll never be able to fully model POD
– But the models should be able to show us where we have the most leverage
for improvement – the factors to which reliability is most sensitive
33© 2016 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
That is the state of our approach so far – it is very early!
34© 2016 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Topics
EPRI human factors research
IGSCC requalification
US initiatives correlation to BAM modular reliability model
Future research directions
Reminder of 7th European-American Workshop on Reliability of NDE (2017)
Discussion
EPRI – Electric Power Research Institute
IGSCC – Intergranular stress corrosion cracking
US – United States
BAM – Bundesanstalt für Materialforschung und –prüfung
35© 2016 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
7th European-American Workshop
on Reliability of NDE (hosted by DGZfP and BAM)
Potsdam (near Berlin)
1½ day Tutorial: POD Basis, Advanced, Human Factors
2½ day Lectures, Posters, Discussions (Advanced Methods, Application in Industry (Focus Railway), SHM, Human and Organisational Factors)
½ day Open Space Workshop „Interconnections and Dependencies“
… YOUR TOPICSChristina.Mueller@bam.de
35
36© 2016 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Topics
EPRI human factors research
IGSCC requalification
US initiatives correlation to BAM modular reliability model
Future research directions
Reminder of 7th European-American Workshop on Reliability of NDE (2017)
Discussion
EPRI – Electric Power Research Institute
IGSCC – Intergranular stress corrosion cracking
US – United States
BAM – Bundesanstalt für Materialforschung und –prüfung
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