Performance Prediction: Truths and Falsehoods

Performance Prediction: Truths and Falsehoods

Dr. Jordan B PetersonProfessor of Psychology

University of Toronto

What do psychologists do?

• Pursue scientific truth• Pursue careers

How to pursue scientific truth

• MEASUREMENT– If the phenomenon cannot be measured

• It does not exist

How to pursue scientific truth, continued

• CONSTRUCT VALIDATION– Multimethod, multitrait

• Analogous to sensory analysis– Five senses, not one– Plus intrasubjective measurement– Plus technological extension of sensory analysis

Use statistics destructively

• Aim at demolishing your effect

How to pursue a career

• Invent a scale (or a construct)– Or rename a scale that already exists

• Refuse to validate it– No convergence– No divergence– No criterion– No multimethod, multitrait analysis

• Correlate it with some phenomenon

How to pursue a career, continued

• Publish the paper• Establish a small primate dominance hierarchy

– Based on the scale– Climb the hierarchy

• Use statistics selectively– Very selectively

• Enjoy the fruits of your success!– But seriously distort the knowledge base– And spend your time chasing red herrings

NATURE | NEWS FEATURE

• Replication studies: Bad copy– In the wake of high-profile controversies,

psychologists are facing up to problems with replication.

• Ed Yong– 16 May 2012

Things that might not exist

• Self-esteem– (neuroticism – extraversion)– 25000 published papers

• Whole political and educational agendas

• Working memory and EF– IQ?

• Emotional intelligence– Agreeableness

Things that might not exist

• Grit• MacArthur Genius Grant (Angela Duckworth)• Martin Seligman (positive psychology)• Conscientiousness

• Optimism/Pessimism– Extraversion/neuroticism

• Promotion/prevention– Extraversion/conscientiousness

Things that might not exist

• Empathy– Measures do not correlate well, but distill to

agreeableness

• Psychopathy– Agreeableness, negative, minus conscientiousness– Predatory parasite

Things that might not exist

• Positive illusions– Extraversion, by Taylor’s own analysis

• Practical intelligence– Sternberg is a crook

• Multiple intelligences– Gardner is a crook

Things that might not exist

• Any questionnaire measure independent of the Big Five

• Any measure of cognitive function independent of IQ

• Any behavioral measure of a trait, independent of IQ and the Big Five

Things that might exist

Individual Differences

• Contextual and individual factors

– Contextual• Cultural factors• Peer networks• Social support

– Individual• Personality• Cognitive ability

Personality

TraitsMeasurement

ItemsEmployment Variables

Economic Value

Traits

STABILITY Emotional Stability

Agreeableness

Industriousness

Orderliness

Politeness

Compassion

Conscientiousness

Volatility (r)

Withdrawal (r)

PLASTICITY

Extraversion

Openness

AssertivenessEnthusiasm

CreativityIntellect

Personality• Extraversion

– Happiness, optimism, enthusiasm, gregariousness, assertiveness• Neuroticism

– .2-.3 with major life outcomes• Particularly anxiety and depression, since that’s what it measures

• Agreeableness– Compliance, empathy, maternality, kinship– criminality

• Conscientiousness– .4 with major life outcomes

• Openness– Creativity, intelligence

• Disagreeable/neurotic– Personality disorders

• Gender differences– 75% classification accuracy

Emotion & Motivation• Extraversion

– Incentive reward (hope, curiosity, play, enthusiasm)/dopamine– Harvest attention/approach and exploit social situations

• Neuroticism– Pain, frustration, disappointment, fear, anxiety/GABA, Serotonin– Avoid threat, uncertainty and punishment

• Agreeableness– Empathy, sympathy, compliance, CARE (Oxytocin)– Form intimate relationships and share

• Vs

– Pursue individual agenda/defend territory– People vs things

• Conscientiousness– Orderliness: DISGUST– Industriousness: GUILT, SHAME– Maintain order

• Stay uncontaminated and sparkly clean

– Implement goals• Openness

– Manipulate abstractions prior to implementation– General Cognitive Ability– Awe, curiosity– Non-social incentive reward/dopamine

Models are grounded in motivation

Capitalize on social groupsMaintain order

Measurement

Items

Measurement• Trait Measures

• Big Five Aspect Scale• Unfakeable Big Five

• General cognitive ability• Fluid• Crystallized• Dorsolateral prefrontal

• Creativity • Creative Achievement Questionnaire• Divergent thinking and fluency

(BFAS) Conscientiousness

• Industriousness– Waste my time (r)– Always know what I am doing

• Orderliness– Am not bothered by disorder (r)– Follow a schedule

(BFAS) Emotional Stability

• Volatility– Get angry easily– Keep my emotions under control

• Withdrawal– Seldom feel blue– Am filled with doubts about things

(BFAS) Agreeableness

• Politeness– Respect authority– Believe that I am better than others (r)

• Compassion– Am not interested in other people’s problems (r)– Take no time for others (r)

(BFAS) Openness

• Creativity– Believe in the importance of art– Love to reflect on things

• Intellect (but see general cognitive ability)– Am quick to understand things– Can handle a lot of information

(BFAS) Extraversion

• Assertiveness– Take charge– Lack the talent for influencing people (r)

• Enthusiasm– Make friends easily– Am hard to get to know (r)

Unfakeable Big Five (+)

Unfakeable Big Five (-)

Cognitive Ability

• The complexity of the world– Motivated ends must be met– Modeling of possibility prior to implementation

• Models generate solutions to three problems:– Where are you?– Where are you going?– How are you going to get there?

– Allows testing and failure• Popper: “Our hypotheses die in our stead”

Conceptions of cognitive ability

– INTELLIGENCES–Practical vs analytical–Social, emotional, moral–Multiple: linguistic, musical, logical-mathematical, spatial, body-kinesthetic, intrapersonal, interpersonal

– INTELLIGENCE–Highest strata has the most explanatory power

» “g” measures “success” across broad domains» r ~ .50

Effect Size

• Relative magnitude

• r= .50 90-97%ile• r= .35-.50 75-90%ile• r= .15-.35 25-57%ile• r< .15 0-25%ile

• Hemphill, J.F. (2003). Interpreting the magnitudes of correlation coefficients. American Psychologist, 58, 78-8.

• Binomial

– Predictor r = .30• From 50/50• To 65/30

– Predictor r = .50• From 50/50• To 75/25

General Cognitive Ability

Creativity

• Visual Arts (painting, sculpture)• 0. I have no training or talent in this area.• 1. I have taken lessons in this area.• 2. People comment on my talent in this

area.• 3. I won one or more prizes at juried art

shows.• 4. I showed my work in a gallery.• 5. I sold a piece of my work.• 6. My work was critiqued in local

publications.• 7. My work was critiqued in national

publications.

• Inventions• 0. I do not have recognized talent in this area.• 1. I find novel uses for household objects.• 2. I sketched out an invention and worked on

its design flaws.• 3. I created original software for a computer.• 4. I built a prototype of one of my designed

inventions.• 5. I sold an inventions to people I know.• 6. I received a patent for one of my inventions.• 7. I sold an invention to a manufacturing firm.

Creative Achievement Questionnaire

Employment Variables

Complexity

Inno

vatio

n

Hi/HiEntrepreneurial

Lo/HiManagerial/Administrative

Lo/LoRote Tasks

Hi/Lo

Who suits which position?

• Cognitive ability

• High levels of fluid and executive intelligence– Decision making and planning– Research

• High levels of retrieval– Creativity and ideational production– Leadership and public speaking

• High levels of crystallized intelligence– Information dispensing and storage– Writing and lecturing

Who suits which position?

• Specific Performance• Openness (r = .30 - .40)

– Associated with high levels of creativity/entrepreneurial ability

– Extraversion (r = .20)» Managers» Sales People» Leadership

– Agreeableness» Lower levels associated with creativity/managerial excellence» Higher levels for public relations, customer service (?)

Openness

• Complexity and Intelligence

• Innovation and Creativity

Conscientiousness

• Duty and Industriousness

• Disgust and Orderliness

Employment Variables II

• Emotional Stability• High vs Low Stress

• Agreeableness• People vs Things

• Extraversion• Solitary vs Gregarious

Economic Value

Complexity and cognitive ability

• 95-86 percentile– IQ 130 – 116

• 85-73 percentile– IQ 115-110

• Attorney, Research Analyst• Editor, Advertising Manager• Chemist, Engineer, Executive• Manager, Trainee, • Systems Analyst, Auditor

• Copywriter, Accountant• Manager/Supervisor • Sales Manager • Sales, Programmer• Analyst, Teacher, Adjuster• General Manager • Purchasing Agent• Registered Nurse• Sales Account Executive

Complexity and cognitive ability

• 70-60 percentile

– IQ 108-103

• 55-50 percentile– IQ 102-100

• Administrative Assistant• Store Manager, Bookkeeper• Credit Clerk. Drafter, Designer • Lab Tester/Tech, Assistant Manager • General Sales, Telephone Sales• Secretary, Accounting Clerk,• Medical Debt Collection • Computer Operator • Customer Service Rep • Technician, Automotive Salesman• Clerk, Typist

• Dispatcher, General Office• Police Patrol Officer• Receptionist, Cashier • General Clerical• Inside Sales Clerk, Meter Reader• Printer, Teller, Data Entry • Electrical Helper

Complexity and cognitive ability

• 45-42 percentile

– IQ 98-95

• 37-21 percentile– IQ 93-87

• Machinist, Food Dept Manager• Quality Control Checker • Claims Clerk, Driver/Deliveryman• Security Guard, Unskilled Labor• Maintenance, Machine Operator• Arc Welder, Die Setter, Mechanic• Medical/Dental Assistant

• Messenger, Factory Production• Assembler, Food Service Worker• Nurse’s Aide, Warehouseman• Custodian/Janitor• Material Handler• Packer

Economic Value I

• Predictive Power• r = .6 to r = .2

– Intelligence– Conscientiousness (managerial)– Openness Creativity (innovative)– Emotional Stability

– Agreeableness– Extraversion

Economic Value II

• Binomial Effect Size

• Price’s Law

• Economic Impact of Prediction

Pareto Distribution

Individual variation and productivity

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6

education

interest

academic achievement

training/experience ratings

interview

experience

reference check

personality

biographical inventory

job tryout

cognitive ability

prefrontal ability

– Number of years– Current - Potential Predictor– Job Complexity

• High complexity = high variability

– Salary• Theoretically proportionate to output• Average output must be 2x salary

Economic value and placement

Process

• Advertise• Test online• Screen• Interview best candidates

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