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Peak Oil
Transition Training 2008
1
Typical Oil Well
Transition Training 2008
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0
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Cum Prod. Gb
An
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. Gb
Forties Field UK Sector North Sea
Prudhoe Bay, Alaska
Two Typical Oil Fields
Transition Training 2008
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00.20.40.60.8
11.21.41.61.8
1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
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020040060080010001200140016001800
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/dIndonesia
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Russia
Peak Production Follows Peak Discovery
Transition Training 2008
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UK Production Profile
Transition Training 2008
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Global Oil Discovery and Production
Transition Training 2008
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Transition Training 2008
When Is The Global Oil Peak?7
Post peak oil producers (64)
www.lastoilshock.com
Transition Training 2008
Oil producers (98)8
Exports from oil producers
Transition Training 2008
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80:20 Rule The world’s giant oilfields are in steep decline
Transition Training 2008
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WHERE WE GET OUR ENERGY
Source: ExxonMobile web site Transition training 2008
11
If peak oil was imminent, what sorts of things would be happening as warning signs
‘the Canary in the Coal mine’?
Transition training 2008
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Why Is Oil So Important?
How Many Men Does It Take To Push a Car?
Transition Training 2008
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Transition Training 2007
What Do We Use Oil For?
Transition Training 2008
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No Country Has Yet Decoupled Economic Growth From Energy Use
Transition Training 2008
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Oceans 40,000 GtC
Vegetation about 600 GtCSoils 1600 GtC
The atmosphere holds about 750 GtC
Fossil CO2
Dead Organisms
Transition Training 2007
The Carbon Cycle16
Transition Training 2007
What Is Climate Change?17
Transition Training 2007
Is it Proven?18
What are the main problems with out of control CC?
Transition Training 2007
19
CO2 Levels Over the Past 60000 Years
Ron Oxburgh
381 ppm
2006
Transition Training 2007
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Transition Training 2007
The Urgent Need for a Response21
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Responses to Peak Oil & Climate Change
CLIMATE CHANGE
• Climate engineering• Carbon capture and
storage• International
emissions trading• Climate adaptation• Nuclear power
P O + C C =Systems Re-Think
• Planned Relocalization
• Local Resilience
• Energy Descent
Action Plan
PEAK OIL
• Burn everything!• Relaxed drilling
regulations• Biofuels• Tar sands and
non- conventional oils
• Resource nationalism
• Resource Wars
23
fini
Peak Oil & Climate ChangePeak Oil & Climate Change
CLIMATE CHANGE
(a la Stern et al.) climate engineering carbon capture and
storage tree-based carbon
offsets international
emissions trading climate adaptation improved
transportation logistics
nuclear power
PLANNED RELOCALISATION
local resilience carbon reduction consume closer to home produce closer to home play closer to home decentralised energy
infrastructure the Great Reskilling localised food local medicinal capacity local currencies Energy Descent Plans
PEAK OIL
(a la Hirsch et al.) coal to liquids gas to liquids relaxed drilling
regulations massively scaled
biofuels tar sands and non-
conventional oils resource
nationalism and stockpiling
What can be done?What can be done? GlobalGlobal
– Oil Depletion ProtocolOil Depletion Protocol
– Contraction and ConvergenceContraction and Convergence
– KyotoKyoto
NationalNational– TEQs, Cap & Share (energy rationing)TEQs, Cap & Share (energy rationing)
CommunityCommunity– Transition Towns, cities, villages, ruralTransition Towns, cities, villages, rural
PersonalPersonal– ““The work that reconnects”The work that reconnects”
– lessons from addiction counsellinglessons from addiction counselling
– getting Gaia’edgetting Gaia’ed
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