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Q1-
99
Q3-
99
Q1-
00
Q3-
00
Q1-
01
Q3-
01
Q1-
02
Q3-
02
Q1-
03
Q3-
03
Q1-
04
Q3-
04
Q1-
05
Q3-
05
Bill
ion
199
3 P
esos
Source
ceteris paribus
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Jan-
00
Fe
b-0
0
Ma
r-0
0
Ap
r-0
0
Ma
y-0
0
Jun-
00
Jul-0
0
Au
g-0
0
Se
p-0
0
Oct
-00
No
v-0
0
Dec
-00
Jan-
01
Fe
b-0
1
Ma
r-0
1
Ap
r-0
1
Ma
y-0
1
Jun-
01
Jul-0
1
Au
g-0
1
Se
p-0
1
Oct
-01
No
v-0
1
Dec
-01
Jan-
02
Inte
rest
Ra
te (%
)
PesosDollars
Sources
And the Money Kept Rolling In ): Wall Street, the IMF, and the Bank-rupting of Argentina
EmergingFinancial Markets
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Jan-
00
Mar
-00
May
-00
Jul-
00
Sep
-00
No
v-00
Jan-
01
Mar
-01
May
-01
Jul-0
1
Sep
-01
No
v-0
1
Jan-
02
Diff
ere
nce
in I
nte
rest
Ra
tes
(%
)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
EM
BI+
Arg
en
tina
Str
ip Sp
rea
d
Weekly Interest Rate DifferenceDaily EMBI+ Argentina Strip Spread
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Jan-
00
Mar
-00
May
-00
Jul-0
0
Se
p-0
0
Nov
-00
Jan-
01
Mar
-01
May
-01
Jul-0
1
Se
p-0
1
Nov
-01
Jan-
02
Diff
ere
nce
in I
nte
rest
Ra
tes
(%
)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
EM
BI+
Arg
en
tin
a Sp
rea
d O
ver
Tre
asu
ry
Weekly Interest Rate DifferenceDaily EMBI+ Argentina Spread Over Treasury
A
B
Sources available at
i i ( ) (% )
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
Jan-
01
Feb
-01
Mar
-01
Apr
-01
May
-01
Jun-
01
Jul-0
1
Aug
-01
Sep
-01
Oct
-01
Nov
-01
Dec
-01
Bill
ion
U.S
. D
olla
rs
Source
corralito
corralito
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Jan-
01
Feb
-01
Mar
-01
Apr
-01
May
-01
Jun-
01
Jul-0
1
Aug
-01
Sep
-01
Oct
-01
Nov
-01
De
c-0
1
Bill
ion
Pe
sos
Note
Source
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
Bill
ion
U.S
. Dol
lars
TotalFDIEquityDebtOther
Note
Source
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
Jun
-00
Aug
-00
Oct
-00
De
c-00
Feb
-01
Apr
-01
Jun
-01
Aug
-01
Oct
-01
De
c-01
Feb
-02
Apr
-02
Jun
-02
Aug
-02
Oct
-02
De
c-02
Arg
en
tin
e P
eso
s / U
.S.
Do
llar
Source
Financial Times
Systemic Financial Distress: Containment and Resolution
Brookings Trade Forum
Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets
Real Exchange Rates, Devaluation, and AdjustmentJournal of International Economics
Financial Fragilities in Latin America: The sand s
Note
Sources
Bulgaria
Argentina
UruguayBolivia
Ecuador
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26
Reinhar t-Rogoff-Savastano Composite Index Level: 1996-2001
2001
Exp
orts
/GD
P
Ecuador
Bolivia
Uruguay
Argentina
Bulgaria
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0
2001 CDDD/Pr ivate Credit
200
1 E
xpor
ts/G
DP
A
B
Sources
available at
Sourcesavailable at
available at
Uganda
Turkmenistan
Pakistan
Hungary
Georgia
Estonia
El Salvador
Costa Rica
Belarus
Armenia
Thailand
Philippines
Moldova
Jamaica
Cote d'Ivoire
Bahrain
Vietnam
Russia
Mongolia
Kyrgyz RepublicYemen
Tanzania
Sierra Leone
MalawiGuinea
Croatia
Congo DR
Indonesia
Turkey
Tajikistan
Jordan
Honduras
Ghana
Zambia
Sao Tome & Pr�ncipe
Mozambique
Lebanon
Guinea-Bissau
Paraguay
Cambodia
Peru
Angola
Bulgaria
Argentina
UruguayBolivia
Ecuador
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26
Reinhart-Rogoff-Savastano Composite Index Level: 1996-2001
2001
Exp
orts
/GD
PC
NoteSources
availableat
Note
Sources
available atavailable
at
the
Uganda
Pakistan
Hungary
Georgia
Estonia
Costa Rica
Belarus
Armenia
Thailand
PhilippinesMoldova
JamaicaCote d'Ivoire
Bahrain
Vietnam
Russia
Mongolia
Kyrgyz RepublicYemen
TanzaniaSierra Leone
Malawi Guinea
CroatiaIndonesia
Turkey
Jordan
Honduras
Zambia
Sao Tome & Pr�ncipe
Mozambique
Lebanon
Guinea-Bissau
Paraguay
Cambodia
Peru
Angola
Bulgaria
Argentina
UruguayBolivia
Ecuador
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
-1 1 3 5 7 9 11
2001 CDDD/Pr ivate Credit
2001
Exp
orts
/GD
PD
Quar-terly Journal of Economics
Brookings Papers on EconomicActivity
Journal of Business
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Jun-
94
Aug
-94
Oct
-94
De
c-94
Feb
-95
Apr
-95
Jun-
95
Aug
-95
Oct
-95
De
c-95
Feb
-96
Apr
-96
Jun-
96
Aug
-96
Oct
-96
De
c-96
Me
xica
n P
eso
s /
U.S
. Dol
lar
Source
t t tt t
St tt log(St log( t
t log(St St ) log(St StI t tK t t
t I t/ K t
t I t I t )/ K t
A t tt t
t tt t t )/ t
t t t t t )/ tt t/ t
Note:
Hypothesis 1 ceteris paribus
Hypothesis 2 ceteris paribusin Mexico
in Mexico
Hypothesis 3 ceteris paribusnot in Argentina
in Argentina
t
T
Argentina
T
Mexico
T
Note
tT
Source
Argentina
T
Mexico
T
NoteSource
higher
t
T
Argentina
T
Mexico
T
NoteSource
despite higher
ceteris paribus ceteris paribus
T
Argentina
T
Mexico
T
NoteSource
not
controlled for
t
Argentina
T
Mexico
T
NoteSource
Argentina
T
Mexico
T
NoteSource
t
T TP > P >
t( ) ( )
t( ) ( )
( ) ( )
( ) ( )t
( ) ( )
( ) ( )t
( ) ( )
t( )
t( )
( ) ( )
Regression statistics
RR
NoteSource
t
T TP > P >
t( ) ( )
t( ) ( )
( ) ( )
( ) ( )t
( ) ( )
( ) ( )
t( ) ( )
t( )
t( )
( ) ( )Regression statistics
RR
NoteSource
T
T
T
Note i
i�
t
ri t
r i t i t
r i tpi t pi t
pi t
wri t β i β iwr εi t
wr i t i wr tt
wr i tt t
i
i�
t
abri t
i t t
i t r i t�β i
�β i
�r t
�
t i t
Source
T TP > P >
DDA t
Regression statistics
RR
two
per seannouncements
Inter Press Service
The Economist
Hypothesis 4ceteris paribus
The Economist
Utilities
High-energy consumers
Note
seeand
Source
t
T TP > P >
t( ) ( )
t( ) ( )
( ) ( )
( ) ( )t
( ) ( )
( ) ( )t ARG
( ) ( )
t( )
t ARG( )
( ) ( )
( ) ( )
( ) ( )
Regression statistics
RR
NoteSource
long-run positive
yT
T TP > P >
t( ) ( )
t( ) ( )
( ) ( )
( ) ( )t
( ) ( )
( ) ( )
t ARG( ) ( )
t( )
t ARG( )
( ) ( )
( ) ( )
( ) ( )Regression statistics
RR
NoteSource
T TP > P >
( ) ( )t
( ) ( )
( ) ( )
( ) ( )
( ) ( )Regression statistics
RR
Note
T TP > P >
( ) ( )t
( ) ( )
( ) ( )
( ) ( )
( ) ( )Regression statistics
RR
Systemic FinancialDistress: Containment and Resolution
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