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Page 1Rainer Münz
E R S T E G R O U PB A N K A G
Rainer Münz
KNOMAD Seminar
Washington DC, May 1st, 2014
Will International Migration Continue Forever?Reflections on Demography and Migration
Page 2
Unequal population growth
Page 3
Europe’s and Russia’s population is shrinking, MENA, Africa and W. Asia are growingProjected population growth, 2010-2050, in %
Source: Berlin Institute
to -20 %-20% - -5%-5% - 0%0% - 25%25% - 75%75% - 100%100% - 150%150% - 200%above 200%n. a.
Page 4
The main driver of this population change: Very unequal numbers of childrenNumber of children per woman (total fertility), 2010-2015
Source: UN DESA
Page 5
During the last six decades, the overall number of children per woman has halved Total fertility by world regions, 1950-2015
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1950-1955 1970-1975 1990-1995 2010-2015
AfricaAsiaEuropeLatin AmericaNorth AmericaOceaniaWorld
Source: UN DESA
Page 6
Young and ageing societies
Page 7
Page 8
Since 170 years our life span has always increasedLife expectancy, 1840-2010, in years (highest national value)
Source: Oeppen u. Vauoel 2002
NorwayNew ZealandIslandSwedenJapanNetherlandsSwitzerlandAustralia
Page 9
Europe + Japan have the oldest population, MENA, Africa, South + SE Asia are still youngShare of age group 65+ in total population, in %
Source: UN DESA
n. a.
to 3%
3% - 6%
6% - 9%
9% - 12%
12% - 15%
above 15%
Seite 10
Europa wird älter
1,00 0,75 0,50 0,25 0,00 0,25 0,50 0,75 1,00
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Ag
e
in % Männer (2010) Frauen (2010)
Männer (2050) Frauen (2050)
Source: Eurostat
1950
2010
2050
Ag
eEurope is agingPopulation of EU 28 by age and gender
men
men
women (2010)
women (2050)
Page 11
Diverging trends affecting future labour forces and possibly labor migration
Page 12
The working-age population will shrink in Europe and China, but not in Africa and IndiaPopulation age 20-65, 1950-2050, in mn, by major countries / regions
Source: UN DESA
Page 13
Source: based on ILO data 2011
below -5%
-5% - 0%
0% - 10%
10%- 20%
above 20%
The labour supply in Europe and Russia will shrink, but it will increase in MENA and Africa Development of labour force until 2020, in %
?
Page 14
Economic imbalances
Page 15
Source: IMF
In recent years MENA and Africa were growing while Europe had a recessionAverage real GDP growth, 2008-12, in %
Page 16
Emerging markets continue to outgrow the advanced economiesContribution to global GDP growth
Source: Financial Times
Page 17
Global migration in history
Page 18
Four global flows:-Slave trade-European expansion-Indian migration-Chinese migration
Page 19
Northern and Southern
America, The Caribbean
Central Asia, Siberia
Australia, New Zealand
Palestine/Israel
Algeria
South Africa
Migration from Europe to less developed peripheriesEurope’s answer to rapid population growth70 mn Europeans migrated to overseas’ destinations
European expansion, 1750-1960: From settlement to labour migration
Page 20
China/Taiwan
Palestine/ Israel
India/ Pakistan
Germany/Austria, Poland/Ukraine, etc.
More migrants in the global South than in the North
World migration, 1945-1950
Page 21Rainer Münz
E R S T E G R O U PB A N K A G
Migration pattern today
Page 22
Migration(a) stocks:232 million750 million
Page 23
Migration(a) flows:40 million
1990 2000 2010 2013
The number of international migrants increases
United Nations, Population Division/DESA
Absolute numbers and proportion of migrants in total population
I = Receiving country’s reported flow E = sending country’s reported flow… = no reported data available
Origin BE CZ DK DE EE GR ES FR IE ITBE I 80 587 4291 … … 3037 … … 1959
E … … … … … … … … …CZ I … 232 9258 … … 388 … … 915
E 78 47 950 2 66 70 283 31 197DK I … 65 2693 … … 764 … … 281
E 511 180 2540 133 229 1720 1333 264 782DE I … 1228 3221 … … 13746 … … 12902
E 4623 8909 2712 597 18106 16236 19060 2415 33802EE I … 4 169 947 … 60 … … 103
E … … … … … … … … …GR I … 57 278 12959 … 273 … … 638
E … … … … … … … … …ES I … 103 1665 14647 … … … … 2051
E 647 34 130 2109 4 38 2474 487 801FR I … 462 1488 18133 … … 8847 … 4647
E … … … … … … … … …IE I … 45 306 2046 … … 1649 … 292
E … … … … … … … … …IT I … 274 895 23702 … … 5796 … …
E 1414 20 155 9778 1 211 895 2933 130
Destination
There is, however, a lot of uncertainty Double-entry matrix for selected EU countries, 2003
Source: James Raymer
International migrants in 2013 by major macro region of origin and destination
In: 8.5 mOut: 36.7 m
In: 18.6 mOut 30.9 m In: 7.9 m
Out: 1.8 m
In: 70.8 mOut: 92.6 m
In: 72.4 mOut: 58.5 m
In: 53.1 mOut: 4.3 m
Source: Trends in International Migrant Stock: The 2013 Revision
Emigrant stock: origin black Immigrant stock: destination yellow
Where do they come from? Where do they go to?International migrants by origin and destination, 1990, 2010, in mn
Source: United Nations, Population Division
Magnet societies: EU, US, Asia
20131990
International migrant stock by macro region, 1990 – 2013, in mn
Source: Trends in International Migrant Stock: The 2013 Revision
Today migrants come from middle- and low-income countries
Net migration rates 2005-2010 (annual average per 1000)
But most of today‘s migrant sending countries will outgrow today‘s receiving countries Average GDP growth forecast, 2012-18 (in % per year)
Data Source: IMF
Page 31
Source: Eurostat, UN DESA
Net migration in Europe 2001-2010Net migration, yearly average, per 1000 inhabitants
.
-2% to 0% 0 to +2+2% to +5%
below -5%-5% to -2%
above +5%
Page 32
Source: Eurostat and own calculations 2013
Net migration in Europe 2010-2012Net migration, yearly average, per 1000 inhabitants
.
-2% to 0% 0 to +2+2% to +5%
below -5%-5% to -2%
above +5%
Direction changed recently
Above income levels of US-$ 9,000 per capita net-emigration stops Annual average net migration per 1000 inhabitants (2005-10)
Data Source: UN; Erste Research
Page 34Rainer Münz
E R S T E G R O U PB A N K A G
Migration patterns tomorrow?
1990 2000 2010 2013
The number of international migrants is projected to increase further
2030
United Nations, Population Division/DESA
Absolute numbers and proportion of migrants in total population
1990 2000 2010 2013
The number of international migrants is projected to increase further
2050
Source: United Nations, Population Division
Absolute numbers and proportion of migrants in total population
Net migratory flows to more developed countries1950-2010 (actual), 2010-2100 (different projections), in mn
All more developed countries USA
xx xx
Source: Joel E. Cohen
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Ne
t m
igra
nts
(m
illio
ns)
1950 2000 2050
year
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
Ne
t m
igra
nts
(m
illio
ns)
1950 2000 2050
year
UNPDestimate
WPP2010projection
Gravity model
Linear model
Why does it matter?Contribution of international migration to population growth / decline by 2050 as proportion of the total population in 2010
Per cent
Polynesia -45Micronesia -21Caribbean -14Central America -10Central Asia -8Northern Africa -6Western Africa -4Melanesia -4South-Central Asia -3Southern Asia -3Eastern Africa -2Middle Africa -2South-Eastern Asia -2South America -2Eastern Asia -1Southern Africa 1Eastern Europe 2Western Asia 3Southern Europe 8Western Europe 10Northern Europe 16Northern America 20Australia/New Zealand 36
Source: Francois Pelletier
Where does it matter?Contribution of natural growth and international migration to population growth/decline, 1950-2050 , in mn
04/19/23 39Source: Henning; Cohen
Page 40Rainer Münz
E R S T E G R O U PB A N K A G
Thank you for your attention!
rainer.muenz@erstegroup.com
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