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“Overview of the state-of-the-art, typical components and applications and the roadmap of solar heat in Germany up to 2030“
Jan Michael Knaack, Senior Project Manager
German Solar Industry Association Warsaw, 19. March 2013
German Solar Industry Association
TASK To represent the German solar industry
in the solar
thermal and photovoltaic sector
VISION A global sustainable energy supply
provided by solar (renewable) energy
ACTIVITIES Lobbying, political advice,
public relations, market observation,
standardization
EXPERIENCE Active in the solar energy
sector since more than 25 years
MEMBERS More than 850 solar producers,
suppliers, wholesalers, installers and other
companies active in the solar business
HEADQUARTERS Berlin
A Popular FallacyWho would have thought this was the case?
Of 100 people asked, the figures below show how many people thought that most energy was used in these areas...
Actual consumption in %
Car Warm water
Warm water S
ourc
e of
da
ta
CarHeatingElectricity
Electricity
Don‘t know
Unglazed collectors
Sidney tube (heatpipe)
CPC tubes
Standard tubes
Solar air collectors
Vacuum flat plate collector (with spacer)
Standard flat plate collector
Stainless steel absorbers
Vacuum tube collectorsFlat-plate collectors
Synthetic absorbers
Design of Solar Collectors
Various Collector TypesVacuum tube collector
Source of picture: Paradigma
Solar air collectors
Source of picture : Grammer
Flat plate collector
Source of picture : Nau
Swimming pool absorber
Source of picture : SUNSET
Sputtered selective absorber<<
Ultrasonic or laser welding
>>
<< Collector Design
Heat meter, flow meter, insulated tubes… >> >>
©
Blu
ete
c
© Wagner & Co
© W
ag
ner
&
Co
© Aeroline tube systems
© Resol
Technology: production, components, system design
Storage Types for Single-Family Houses (EFH)
Service water storage 150 - 1000 litres
Pic
ture
sourc
e:
Nau
Buffer storage500 - 1500 litres
Pic
ture
sourc
e:
Nau
Stratified storage500 - 3000 litres
Pic
ture
sourc
e:
Saile
r
Domestic Hot Water Production
Typical data for Germany
(4-person household)
Forced circulation
5-6m² collector area
300-400 l. solar storage tank
End consumer costs
~ €4,000 – 5,000
Condensing boileroli, gasnew: wood pelletsrarely: elec. power
Flat-plate or vacuum tube collector
Solar station with controls and circulation pump
Waterstorage
tank
Cold water inlet
Market share in Germany: 50%
Image: Paradigma
Image: Schüco
Solar Thermal Combined System
Combined solar thermal
system
for DHW and auxiliary room
heating
8-15 m² collector area
500-1,000 litres combined
storage
Forced circulation system
End consumer costs ~
€10,000 – €15,000
Solar station with controls andcirculation pump
Boiler
Dom. hot water
storage
Buffer storage Cold water inlet
Flat-plate or vacuum tube collector
Heatingcircuits
Market share in Germany: 50%
Combi storage
Image: Roto Frank
Image: Paradigma
13
131313
Sonnenhaus Lorenz KumhausenConstruction in 2002 – Area 170 m² - Construction costs 350,000 € incl. Cellar + garage
Heat need: 33 kWh/m²a Primary energy need: 14 kWh/m²aSolart thermal: 68 m² (45°) Solar storage tank: 11 m³
solar coverageDHW+ Heating
77 %
Source: Sonnenhaus Institut
Energy autonomy at home – 100 % coverage of heat and power with intelligent renewable energies
www.das-energieautrake-haus.de
Heated area: 162 m² , heating need 12,000 kWh/a, primary energy need 1500 kWh / a = 9 kWh/m²a, electricity need 2000 kWh / a
Price:
363.000 €
(2011)
Solar Thermal Market 2012
0
500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Evacuated tube
Flate Plate
Market Data Solar Thermal in Germany 2012*Newly installed collector area 1,17 Mio sqmTotal installed collector area 16,5 Mio sqmGrowth 2011/2012 -9,3%No. of total systems installed 1.8 Mio
* preliminary(Source: BDH, BSW-Solar)01/2013
Annual
ly in
stal
led
colle
ctor
are
a [1
00
0 s
qm]
1995: Market intentive programme commences and covers 30-40 % of investment cost Limits: Budgets:ca. 30 Mio € for 4 years
2001: Great demand, reduction of grants to cover only 10-15 % of invenstment cost
2002: Market crashes down 40%
2006: Boom in demand, due to high oil and gas prices. Budget ca.120 Mio €/a,. Grants further reduced2007: Market crash
1999: Budget increased to 60 Mio € per annum
Beginning of the 90‘s: some of the German states provide grants for solar thermal systemsProblems: Limited budgets, different criteria for allocation of grants
Since mid 2007: Increased support for systems 2009: building obligations introduced and budget increase2010: support is stopped, market crashes2011 /2012: increase of support per m²
Development of support for ST in Germany
Current support policies in Germany
Existing buildings (Market Incentive Programme MAP) Only support of combined DHW + heating systems with 90
€ / m² minimum of 1500 € / solar key mark approved collectors
For extenisions of existing ST systems 45 € / m² DHW systems are only supported in big building > 3 or
more appartments & commercial buildings > 300 m² heated space
Boni for change of heating systems, very efficient pumps, very well insulated houses, connection to district heating systems
Support for process heat + solar cooling systems of SME of up to 50 % of investment costs
New Buildings: Renewable Heat Obligation (EEWärmeG)New buildings must comply with very well insulation or use a
renewable heat source (e.G. solar thermal, heat pump, pellets, etc.) to cover parts of the energy use
Industry roadmap for solar heat 2030
http://www.solarwirtschaft.de/en/start/english-news.html
“Business as usual“scenario
BAU
“Forced expansion“scenario
FE
“Breakthrough“scenario
DB
• Increase in fossil fuel prices by 3-5 % p.a.
• Support as before
• Increase in fossil fuel prices by 8% p.a.
• Increased support during the period 2014 – 2023
• In conclusion: self-sustaining growth effect
• Comprehensive implementation of the actions according to the roadmap
• Comprehensive implementation of the actions according tothe roadmap
• Significant change in general conditions:
o Increase in global ecological problems
o Increase in fossil fuel prices by 11 % p.a.
o Equal ranking of support for solar heat
Implementation of FE scenario is the central focus of the solar heat roadmap 2012
The Six Strategic Focal Topics
1. Full focus on the expansion of the established segments in the area segment single-family and two-family houses
2. Development of further market segments by acquiring additional competence (multi family houses, solar homes, etc.)
3. Committed entry to the solar heat future market of industrial process heat up to 100°C (better understanding of market)
4. Consolidation of competitive capability through cost-efficient system solutions and active development of the structural change (simple systems / specialisation)
5. Prioritisation of research for development of cost-efficient solutions in the established segments and industrial process heat
6. Active communicative organisation of general conditions required for the increase in solar heat (end consumer communication)
The 11 market segments have different strategic meanings
Segment Strategic significance (FE)
2015 2020 20301 Modernisation of heating systems single-family house 2 SW expansion single-family house 3 New construction of single-family houses 4 Modernisation of existing systems in single-family
houses-
5 Solar homes 6 Modernisation of heating systems and extension of
multi-family residences
7 New construction of multi-family residences 8 Non-residential building - 9 Local and district heating -
10 Industrial process heat up to 100°C - 11 Industrial cooling and air conditioning Strategic significance in line with export and breakthrough scenario
The full impact of the technology leap between 2015 and 2020 will only be felt during the 20‘s
Cost reduction up to 2020: -15%Cost reduction up to 2030: -43%
2000 2011 2015 2020 20300 €
1000 €
2000 €
3000 €
4000 €
5000 €
6000 €
7000 €
8000 €
9000 €
10000 €
HW - MO - SK + EBITDA
HW - SP+HW - SK + EBITDA
HW - KO - SK + EBITDA
FGH - SP+HW - SK + EBITDA
FGH - KO - SK + EBITDA
HST - SP+HW - SK + EBITDA
HST - SP+HW - HK
HST - KO - SK + EBITDA
HST - KO - HK
HST = Manufacturer, FGH = Specialised wholesale trade, HW = Trade, KO = Collector, SP+HW = Storage and other HW, MO = Assembly costs, HK = Manufacturing costs, SK + EBITDA = Other costs and operative reult (calculation based on full costs, not based on the difference investment of storage)
TCM-Storage
Synthetic collector,or similar
substructure
Qualification trade Example of a cost and revenue structure of a combination system(11 m2 flat plate collector) without deduction of storage price of a gas-fired condensing boiler; net final priceTechnology leap
Simpler,faster
assembly
Source: ITW, Technomar
The 12 Core Objectives of the RoadmapScenario Forced expansion
2010 2020 2030
New installation of collector surface p.a. [million m2] 1.15 3.6 8.1
Installed collective surface [accumulated, million m2] 14 39 99
Installed solar thermal performance [accumulated, million m²] 9.8 27 69
Solar thermal energy generation p.a. [TWh] 5 14 36
CO2 savings p.a. [million tons] >1 3.2 8.0Share of solar heat in the heat requirements of German households [%] <1% 2.7% 7.7%
Share of solar heat in the heat requirements (up ot 100°C] of German industry [%] 0% 0.4% 10.2%
Installed systems for industrial process heat1 [accumulated] < 100 1,500 28,300
Reduction in system price in housing per kWh [%] 14 43
Domestic sales of the industry sector [billion €] 1.0 2.4 3.0
German value added rate [%] 75 75 75
Export [billion €] 0.5 1.1 1.4
Conclusions
German solar thermal companies can look back on a long experience in solar thermal technology development and applications
So far the main market is the residential sector, but many promising market segments are to become economically interesting.
Precondition is further political willingness to support the technology as well as improvements in the technology, esp. to enable quicker / easier installation.
In the Solar Thermal Roadmap 2030 (2012), the industry has formulated realistic potentials and has started to work on realizing those goals in Germany.
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