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10/31/2015 OvercomingthestasisinNepalTheHindu
http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/overcomingthestasisinnepal/article7823808.ece?css=print 1/3
OPINIONLEAD
Published:October31,201500:38IST|Updated:October31,201504:12ISTOctober31,2015
OvercomingthestasisinNepalRakeshSood
APWhentheConstitutionwasfinallypassed,forsome,therewasjustasenseofreliefthatthesevenyearlongexercisewasfinallyreachingaconclusionafterrepeatedfalsestartsforothers,therewasanairoftriumphalism.NepalesepeoplecelebratetheadoptionofthecountrysnewConstitution,outsidetheConstituentAssemblyHallinKathmandu.
TheimpasseinIndiaNepalrelationsduetotheovertIndiansupportfortheMadhesisandtheconsequentassertionofNepalinationalismdoesnotportendwellforacountrysufferingfromeconomicdifficulties.ReneweddialoguebetweentheactorstheNepaligovernment,theMadhesisandIndiaisamust
ItisnowoveramonthsinceNepalpromulgateditsnewConstitution.WhentheConstitutionwasfinallypassed,forsome,therewasjustasenseofreliefthatthesevenyearlongexercisewasfinallyreachingaconclusionafterrepeatedfalsestartsforothers,therewasanairoftriumphalism.However,fortheMadhesis,theJanajatisandtheTharus,whohavetraditionallybeenthedisadvantagedgroups,therewasasenseofbetrayal.
10/31/2015 OvercomingthestasisinNepalTheHindu
http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/overcomingthestasisinnepal/article7823808.ece?css=print 2/3
Intheweeksthatfollowed,theKathmandubasedpoliticalleadershipwaspreoccupiedwithjockeyingforpositionsinthenewgovernmentwhilethesimmeringsenseofalienationinTeraiexplodedintoanagitationthathasclaimedmorethanfortylives.TheIndianpolicyofovertlybackingthedemandsoftheMadhesisledtoanupsurgeofNepalinationalism,coupledwithantiIndianism.Movementofgoods,includingessentialslikepetroleumproducts,cametoahalt.TheIndiangovernmentblamedthedeterioratinglawandordersituationwhileNepalisaccusedIndiaofimposingablockade.
NeedformoderationNowthatNepalhasanewgovernmentledbyPrimeMinisterK.P.Oli,andanewPresidentandSpeaker,theshapeofthenewpoliticaldispensationisemerging.ItistimethatallsidestheNepaligovernmentanditspoliticalleadership,theagitatingMadhesisandtheIndiangovernmentclimbdownfromtheirstatedpositions,eschewrhetoricandopendialoguetoresolveissues..
NepalhasexperimentedwithfourConstitutionsandtwointerimConstitutionssince1948nevertheless,the2015ConstitutionisuniqueasitestablishesNepalasafederalrepublicforthefirsttime.TheexercisewastobecompletedbyMay2010butreconcilingtheideasofaliberalfederalismwithMaoistideology,inaprimarilyconservativeHindunation,tookanadditionalfiveyears.
Duringthisperiod,theNepaliCongress,theCommunistPartyofNepal(UnifiedMarxistLeninist)[CPN(UML)]andtheMaoistsplayedmusicalchairswiththePrimeMinisterskursi.G.P.KoiralaandSushilKoiralafromtheNCPushpaKamalDahalPrachandaandBaburamBhattaraifromtheMaoistsandMadhavNepalandJhalaNathKhanalfromtheUMLtookturnsatheadingthegovernmentbetween2008andnow.Meanwhile,MaoistandMadhesiforcesthathadledthedemandforafederalrepublicfracturedandweakened.OnceexPrimeMinisterSushilKoiralaconcededthathewouldstepdownandyieldtheprimeministershiptoaleaderfromhiscoalitionpartner,theUML,K.P.Olibecameimpatient.
Together,thebigthreepartiestheNC,theUMLandtheMaoistshadthenumberstopushthroughtheConstitutionandMr.Olibegantopushforfasttrackingtheprocess.UnwillingtotrustMr.Koirala,hestitchedupadealwiththeMaoiststosupporthisclaim.OnsariGharti,aMaoistJanajatileaderandwifeofBarshaManPun,aPrachandaloyalist,wasbackedbyMr.OliforthepostoftheSpeaker.TheVicePresidentspost,forwhichelectionsaretobeheldonOctober31,islikelytogotoaMaoistleader.
ThefactthatSushilKoiralabacktrackedonhisdealwithMr.OliandgothisowncandidatureforprimeministershipendorsedbytheNConlydroveMr.Olitofindotherimprobableallies,enoughtoensurehisvictoryintheelectionsonOctober11,makinghimNepals38thPrimeMinister.KamalThapasroyalistgroup,RashtriyaPrajatantraPartyNepal[(RPPN)],with25seats,hadvotedagainsttheadoptionoftheConstitutionwhileBijayaGachchhadarsTharuMadhesigroup,theMadhesiPeoplesRightsForumDemocratic[(MJFD)],with14seats,hadboycottedthesessionwithotherMadhesigroups.BothjoinedPrimeMinisterOlisCabinetasDeputyPrimeMinisters.
Mr.OliisbothapragmaticanddecisiveleaderwhowasseenasaneffectiveHomeMinisterearlierandashrewdForeignMinisterlater,tenuresduringwhichhebuiltagoodrelationshipwithNewDelhi.Havingstartedhispoliticalcareerinthe1970sasaNaxaliteandhavingspent14yearsinjail,heemergedinthe1990sasapromisingUMLleader,committedtomultipartydemocracy,thoughheisnowperceivedasmovingmoretotheRight.
TheelectionofBidhyaBhandariasthePresidentofNepalonOctober28reflectsPrimeMinisterOlisgrowingclout.Ms.BhandarihasbeenaclosepoliticalcomradeofMr.Olieversincesheenteredactivepolitics,aftertheuntimelydeathofherhusbandMadanBhandariinacaraccidentin1993.MadanBhandariwasacharismaticleaderandasGeneralSecretaryoftheUMLhadplayedakeyroleinestablishingmultipartydemocracyafterthefirstJanAndolanin1990.HisaccidentaldeathspawnedmanyconspiracytheoriesthoughaCommissionestablishedtoinvestigatethematterconcludedthatitwasanaccidentaldeath.In200910,Ms.BhandariwasmadetheDefenceMinisterinMadhavKumarNepalsCabinet,reportedlyatMr.Olissuggestion.
Meanwhile,thesituationintheTeraihasworsened.Economicactivityhasbeenatastandstillformorethantwomonths.Withfactoriesclosed,schoolsandcollegesshut,hospitalsrunningshortofsuppliesandacuteshortagesofpetrol,dieselandcookinggasforcingpeopletousefirewoodandcleanuptheiroldbicycles,thishasbeenoneofthebleakestfestivalseasonsthatNepalishaveendured.Madhesishave,meanwhile,gearedupforthelonghaul.Thefactthattheyhavebeenabletosustaintheagitationdespitebeingtheworstaffected,withoutanycoerciveapparatus,speaksvolumesabouttheiraccumulatedresentment.
ManyoftheMadhesileadersleadingthemovementweretaintedasbeingcorruptandopportunists,butwiththeagitationtheyhavecapturedthemoodofalienation.Thosekilledintheagitationarebeingcalledmartyrsandmartyrscreatecauses..FromEkMadheshekPradesh,theMadhesishavealreadyacceptedtwoMadhesiprovinces.Today,thedisagreementisonlyoverfivedistricts,threeintheeast(Sunsari,MorangandJhapa)andtwointhewest(KanchanpurandKailali).ExcludingSunsaritakesawaythekeybordertownofBiratnagarandtheKosibasinwhileKailalihasalargeTharupopulationwhichitshareswithneighbouringBardiya.Thesearenotinsurmountabledemands.
Theotherissuepertainstodefiningelectoralconstituencies.The2015Constitutionreducestheweightagegiventoproportionalrepresentation.Teraiconstitutes51percentofthepopulationbutaccordingtocalculations,itwouldcurrentlygetonly62outofatotalof165seatsunderthefirstpastthepostsystem,insteadof83,asperitspopulation.ThenotionoffixingelectoralconstituenciesaftertakingintoaccountpopulationandgeographywasintendedtoensurethatthesparselypopulatedtransHimalayandistrictsarenotleftoutofthedemocraticprocess.TheoutgoinggovernmenthadworkedoutacompromisesafeguardingtheinterestsofsixmountaindistrictswhileraisingthenumberofTeraiconstituenciesto79.Mr.Olineedstorevivethisproposal.
Citizenshipandidentity
CitizenshiphaslongbeenanemotiveissueamongtheMadhesisastheyoftenmarryIndiansfromthenortherndistrictsofBiharandUttarPradeshandspousesofNepalicitizensbecomenaturalisedNepalicitizens.However,thereisadiscriminatoryprovisionregardingtheoffspringofsuchmarriages.ChildrenofaNepalimalemarryingaforeignerareNepalisbydescentwhereasifaNepaliwomanmarriesaforeigner,theirchildrenarenaturalisedNepaliswhichbarsthemfromimportantandpowerfulconstitutionalpositions.ThisisalsoanissuethathasbeentakenupbywomensgroupsonthegroundsthatitviolatesthebasicprincipleofequalityguaranteedbytheConstitution.
10/31/2015 OvercomingthestasisinNepalTheHindu
http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/overcomingthestasisinnepal/article7823808.ece?css=print 3/3
However,iftheperceptionthatKathmanduisjustbuyingtimetakeshold,Madhesidemandswillstartsnowballing,makingacompromisemoredifficult.
AsoftenhappenswheninternalpoliticsinNepalgetspolarised,Indiabecomesaconvenientscapegoat.TheperceptionthatIndiahasimposedavirtualblockadeinsupportoftheMadhesicauseisunhelpful,forbothIndiaNepalrelationsandfortheMadhesicause.DeputyPrimeMinisterThapasvisitlastweekdidnothelpmattersbecausehecouldnotindicatehowhisgovernmentplannedtoresolveissuesandinwhattimeframe.
Meanwhile,Mr.OliisbeingeggedontoplaytheChinacard.Thegrantofa1000metrictonnes(MT)ofpetroleumproductsbyChinamayresonatewellwithNepalinationalistsmomentarilybutMr.OliknowsthatitisnotasubstituteforoverahundredtankersadayfromIndiawhichusedtogettransportedthroughBirgunjeveryday.
Ontheotherhand,needlesslystokingperceptionsofantiIndianismishardlyconsistentwithIndianPrimeMinisterNarendraModisneighbourhoodfirstforeignpolicy.JustasIndiahastobesupportiveoflegitimateMadhesiaspirations,theNepalielitehastocometotermswiththefacteveryagitatingNepalipoliticalgroup,fromtheNepaliCongress(NC)inthe1950stotheMaoistsinthe1990s,hastakenadvantageof1800kmlongIndiaNepalopenborderforrefugeinIndiaandtoseekinterventionontheirbehalf.
WhilethefocushasbeenontheMadhesiagitation,theJanajatidemandsarenodifferent.UnliketheMadhesiswhoshunarms,theJanajatisareusedtofightingandformedamajorchunkoftheMaoistcadres.AJanajatiagitationcouldthrowNepalintoaconvulsionastheyaregeographicallywidespread.
Mr.OlisfirstchallengeistoaddressthehurtsentimentamongtheMadhesi,theJanajatiandtheTharucommunitiestacklingtheactualissueswillthenbecomeeasier.ThisiswhereIndiacanandshouldplayasupportiverole.Mr.Moditooneedstochangetracksfromthepresentimageofaregionalbully,heneedstorevivethevisionthathepresentedlastAugustinKathmanduofafriendlyandgenerousneighbourworkingtowardsmutuallybeneficialrelations.
(RakeshSood,thePrimeMinistersspecialenvoyfordisarmamentandnonproliferationtillMay2014,isaformerAmbassadortoNepal.Email:rakeshsood2001@yahoo.com.)
Printableversion|Oct31,20157:59:25PM|http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/overcomingthestasisinnepal/article7823808.ece
TheHindu
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