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Workshop Large-scale Grid Integration of Renewables in India, Delhi Sep. 2019
Operational wind & solar power forecasting
Optimized Wind and Solar Power Forecasts for India
Dr. Hans-Peter (Igor) Waldl, Overspeed, Germany
Overspeed GmbH & Co. KG, Germany
D. Heinemann (University of Oldenburg, Germany), K. Balaraman, G. Giridhar (NIWE, India)
Large-scale Grid Integration of Renewables in India 1
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Overspeed: 30 Years of Experience
• Core: Consulting for investors, banks, project developers
• R&D as background
• System development
• Main areas:
Thomas Pahlke
Dr. Hans-Peter Waldl
Workshop Large-scale Grid Integration of Renewables in India, Delhi Sep. 2019 2
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Wind Energy Consulting
Assessments
System and Software Development
Wind and Solar Power Predictions
igor@overspeed.de
Wind and Solar Power Predictions
Wind energy Consulting
Assessments
System and Software Development
Workshop Large-scale Grid Integration of Renewables in India, Delhi Sep. 2019 3
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Anemos predictions: What is Anemos?
• Leading edge research and development
• Prediction models and modules
• Wind and Solar Power Prediction System
• Commercial wind & solar predictions
• Today: More than 130 GW of predictions worldwide
Workshop Large-scale Grid Integration of Renewables in India, Delhi Sep. 2019 4
AU.SA
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Offshore wind farm development Sandbank 24
Workshop Large-scale Grid Integration of Renewables in India, Delhi Sep. 2019 5
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Underground storage for hydrogen: Salt dome
© IVG AG
5000
m
Workshop Large-scale Grid Integration of Renewables in India, Delhi Sep. 2019 6
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Hydrogen (P2X) long-term storage
© IVG AG
-2000 m
Workshop Large-scale Grid Integration of Renewables in India, Delhi Sep. 2019 7
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Activities in India
• REMC advice
• Wind and solar power predictions
• Satellite-based very short-term predictions
• Training for NIWE team (GIZ): Indigenous solar power prediction system for India
• Training for REMC operators (GIZ)
Workshop Large-scale Grid Integration of Renewables in India, Delhi Sep. 2019 8
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High/low Wind Seasons and Model Tuning
Solar power: Soiling of PV panels
Daily patterns and the atmosphere
Curtailment and unavailability
Workshop Large-scale Grid Integration of Renewables in India, Delhi Sep. 2019 9
Solar power: Sat-based forecasting methods
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High/low Wind Seasons and Model Tuning
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Tuning affected by high/low wind period
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Models and adaptive tuning
• Adaptive model tuning improves forecasts over time
• Includes some „forgetting factor“
Workshop Large-scale Grid Integration of Renewables in India, Delhi Sep. 2019 12
Mod
el e
rror
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Auto-adaptive model improvement
Model error improvement over 6 month
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Tuning affected by high/low wind period
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• Adaptive model tuning improves forecasts over time
• Includes some „forgetting factor“
• Discarding of old observations from the process must take into account seasonality
Models and adaptive tuning
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Thermal status of the atmosphere
Workshop Large-scale Grid Integration of Renewables in India, Delhi Sep. 2019 16
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Strong thermal influences
Strong daily pattern.
Noon
Workshop Large-scale Grid Integration of Renewables in India, Delhi Sep. 2019 17
That‘s a wind farm, not solar!
Pow
er
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Vertical wind speed profile
regular high irradiation
Workshop Large-scale Grid Integration of Renewables in India, Delhi Sep. 2019 18
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Wind farm with strong thermal influences
Appropriate modelling of the atmosphere is crucial
Workshop Large-scale Grid Integration of Renewables in India, Delhi Sep. 2019 19
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Power Data: Curtailment and unavailability
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Curtailment and unavailability
Auto-detection helps for better tuning and forecasts
Workshop Large-scale Grid Integration of Renewables in India, Delhi Sep. 2019 21
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Solar power: Seasons
Workshop Large-scale Grid Integration of Renewables in India, Delhi Sep. 2019 22
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PV Power Production, clear sky
© NIWE
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PV Power Production, broken clouds
Workshop Large-scale Grid Integration of Renewables in India, Delhi Sep. 2019
As for wind: Model tuning algorithms must be optimised
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Solar power: Soiling of PV panels
Workshop Large-scale Grid Integration of Renewables in India, Delhi Sep. 2019 25
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Losses due to soiling
• Soiling could reduce the PV output up to 15 % or more
• Cleaning routine in place in most farms
• Rain has high impact on the effect
• Local measurements help
© pv-tech.com
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Soiling experiment
NIWE/overspeed/Uni Oldenburg:
First long-term soiling experiment in India (Sahana L., this conference)
Workshop Large-scale Grid Integration of Renewables in India, Delhi Sep. 2019 27
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Solar power: Sat-based forecasting methods
Workshop Large-scale Grid Integration of Renewables in India, Delhi Sep. 2019 28
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Prediction Principles: Short-term
5 min 15 min 3 h 6 h intraday day ahead
10 d
time
Online SCADA NWP domain
Historical SCADA
Mod
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type
s In
put
Dat
a
Statistical models NWP + physical/statistical modelling
Workshop Large-scale Grid Integration of Renewables in India, Delhi Sep. 2019 29
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Big cloud field over south-east Australia
Workshop Large-scale Grid Integration of Renewables in India, Delhi Sep. 2019 30
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Prediction Principles: Short-term
5 min 15 min 3 h 6 h intraday day ahead
10 d
time
Online SCADA NWP domain
Historical SCADA
Mod
el
type
s In
put
Dat
a
Sat images
Statistical models NWP + physical/statistical modelling
Workshop Large-scale Grid Integration of Renewables in India, Delhi Sep. 2019 31
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• EL S 6 Consecutive satellite images
Cloud prediction Irradiation Motion Vector Field
Workshop Large-scale Grid Integration of Renewables in India, Delhi Sep. 2019 32
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Example roof-top, NWP-based, Brisbane
Workshop Large-scale Grid Integration of Renewables in India, Delhi Sep. 2019
Actual Production
Weather data based prediction
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Example roof-top, sat-based, 1 hour ahead
Workshop Large-scale Grid Integration of Renewables in India, Delhi Sep. 2019
sat based prediction
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Prediction Principles: Extreme Short-term
5 min 15 min 3 h 6 h intraday day ahead
10 d
time
Online SCADA NWP domain
Historical SCADA
Mod
el
type
s In
put
Dat
a
Sat images
Statistical models NWP + physical/statistical modelling
Workshop Large-scale Grid Integration of Renewables in India, Delhi Sep. 2019 53
Sky cams
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India is a challenging environment!
• Strong seasonal effects
• Strong thermal influences
• SCADA data influenced by no-availability
• Aerosoles and humidity play a big role
• Soiling has to be taken into account
Workshop Large-scale Grid Integration of Renewables in India, Delhi Sep. 2019 54
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India is a challenging environment!
• Very-shert-term forecasting with Indian satellite
• Fine tuning of models and processes improves predictions significantly
Workshop Large-scale Grid Integration of Renewables in India, Delhi Sep. 2019 55
igor@overspeed.de
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