Optical components and networking

Earth Abundant Materials Technology.

Translucent Inc

Michael S. LebbyGM & CTO

lebby@translucentinc.com

Translucent Inc

Capacity Issues & Challenges • Long Term – US Needs More R&D to Retain Leading Role in

Network Development & Innovation– Industry Structure has Changed Over Time

• Mid-Term – Escalating Consumer Bandwidth Demands– New Technologies to Scale Core, Edge & Datacenters– Broadband Ecosystem Highly Interwoven & Interdependent

• Short-Term – US Opportunity to Regain Leading Role – Continuing Investment is Critical

Sources: OIDA research, One Chip Photonics

Translucent Inc

R&D gap

Translucent Inc

How do we bridge this gap in the optoelectronics industry?

2 4 8 14 16Time (Yr)

Research Commercial R&D

Commercial Product Development& Manufacturing

Industry

Start of concept126 10

Relative Investment ($)

981015di004

Industrial based R&D

Academia

ExpenseRisk

Less companies are profitable

OE manufacturing nearly all off-shore in Asia

Not fashionable to have corporate R&D labs anymore

Can we afford to do R&D + manf in USA today?Sources: OIDA research

Translucent Inc

What has changed over the last decade?

• Market share– 1993 – Losing manufacturing to Japan– 2009 – Movement off-shore broadening and accelerating

– Competition from Korea, Japan, Taiwan, China . . . – US companies moving operations off-shore– R&D following manufacturing

• Corporate infrastructure– 1993 – Vertically integrated– 2009 – Fragmented, down-sized, divested, more focused start-ups

• Technology platform– 1993 – Primarily III-V based– 2009 – Si has expanded into optoelectronics areas; higher precision growth,

dimensional tolerances and structures • Technology drivers

– 1993 – Corporate central labs– 2009 – Central labs no longer exist in industry

– University research– National laboratories

Optoelectronics is in deep trouble in USASources: OIDA research

Translucent Inc

Photonics markets...are already global

Translucent Inc

Asia dominant in OE/photonics

• Asia owned 81%of global 2009 OEmarket of $353B USA

Canada1%

Japan30%

Taiwan22%

China8%

Other Asia3%

South Korea17%

France1%

Germany1%

Netherlands3%

Italy0%

Other Europe2%2009

Sources: OIDA research, IOA

North America & Europe minor players

Translucent Inc

Market share in 2021

• USA – Down 11% 8%

Canada1%

Japan24%

Taiwan23%

China14%

Other Asia3%

South Korea18%

France1%

Germany3% Netherlands

Italy0%

Other Europe2%2021

Asia remains strong

Translucent Inc

OE/photonics market by major location

• By 2021, share: Europe 8.6%, USA 9%, and Asia 82.4%• Asia photonics maintains growth (3.4% CAGR 2010-2021)

Europe

North America

Asian infrastructure strongest

Translucent Inc

OE/photonics market by country

• By 2021, OE/photonicswill be a $500Bbusiness with many countries contributing…

• China grows quickly• US constant

Other Europe

Netherlands

Germany

France

South Korea

Other Asia

Taiwan

Canada

Design + manf off-shore

Translucent Inc

USA decade trends remain flat

• Optical fiber communications and components strong

• Photonic lighting CAGR 2010-21 of 12.2%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Photonic lighting

Precision optical lens and laser

Optical fiber comm

Optical storage

Optical I/O devices

Flat panel displays

Optical components

USA exporting photonics jobs?

Translucent Inc

Networks must address scaling...

Translucent Inc

Network as a catalyst for change in lifestyle

• Social lifestyle personal lifestyle

Before Computer centric Experts level Data exchange

Today Network centric Trained level Archieval/access

Future User centric Pedestrian level Knowledgeable

Source: MIC Japan, Fujitsu, NTT

Lifestyle drives PAN BAN

Translucent Inc

Social networking user growth is driving bandwidth, datacenters

Source: Donn Lee, Facebook, Sept 09

When will the trend slow down?

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from Exa to Zetta-bytes…

Source: Loukas Paraschis, Cisco, OIDA OPTOmism

Only 44 Exabytes/month in 2012

Driven by consumer internet…

Translucent Inc

The challenge of network scaling in

the core

Translucent Inc

The challenges…

• Network interface rates will reach 10 Tbps – Estimates range for 1Tbps in 2015 and up to 10Tbps in 2020

• Network traffic growth is outstripping system capacity growth– System deployments will accelerate strongly in the coming years– System capacity will become the most important factor

• Simple extrapolation of current methods will not meet the need– Progress needed on all fronts (electronics and photonics)

simultaneously• Market for core based systems will be robust

Source: adapted from R. Tkach Alcatel-Lucent

Driven by consumer internet…

Translucent Inc

Scaling the core of the network…

• We know (or severely suspect)– Global system capacity will be important in the next decade

• And we are not keeping up here in the US… – Traffic growth will outstrip capacity growth– Volumes will be large and growing (internet utility users)– New photonics and electronics technologies are critically needed

• We are worried that extreme choking (congestion, traffic-jams) will mean consumers will pay more for the data they use…

• $/bit metrics are here to stay…

Limit how we utilize the internet…Sources: OIDA research

Translucent Inc

System capacity and network traffic (Including voice)

• 2010-2030 forecast trends

100000

1000000

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

TDM ResearchWDM ResearchTDM CommercialWDM CommercialTotal Traffic

Gap???Will traffic >> capacity???

Source: Adapted from R. Tkach Alcatel-Lucent

10Tbps

Will we fill the fiber optic pipes?

Translucent Inc

System capacity and network traffic (Including voice)

• 2010-2030 forecast trends

100000

1000000

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

TDM ResearchWDM ResearchTDM CommercialWDM CommercialTotal Traffic

Will the price stop us from down loading data?

Source: Adapted from R. Tkach Alcatel-Lucent

10Tbps

Carriers will charge $/bit to slow us down…

Translucent Inc

System evolution…

1990s• 2.5-10 Gbps

channel rate• 8,16, 40

Channels• 20-160 Gbps

Capacity• SE = .025-.05

History

2000• 10 Gbps

channel rate• 100 Channels• 1 Tbps

Capacity• SE = 0.2

History

2010 100 Gbps

channel rate 100

Channels 10 Tbps

Capacity SE = 2.0Near Future

2015 1 Tbps ??

channel rate 100 Channels 50 Tbps

Capacity ?? SE = 20 ??R&D Needed

SE = Spectral Efficiency = Channel Rate / Channel Spacing

Source: adapted from R. Tkach Alcatel-Lucent

2020 4 Tbps ??

channel rate 200 Channels 500 Tbps ??

Capacity SE >50 ??R&D Critically

Needed

Even with 2015 target, traffic growth will exceed capacity growth by a factor of 10…

Asia strong in network design…

Challenge is to find 10Tbps technology

Translucent Inc

Networks must address energy...

Translucent Inc

Evolve architecture quickly… (while traffic CAGR >50%)

• IP over DWDM transport:– Eliminate unnecessary layers and minimize underutilized equipment– Maximize architecture and equipment scalability

Source: Loukas Paraschis, Cisco, OIDA OPTOmism

Challenge: contain energy footprint

Translucent Inc

Cost for power and cooling in data centers

• Year 2000– Raw processing ‘horsepower’ is

the primary goal, while the infrastructure to support it is assumed ready

• Year 2006– Raw processing ‘horsepower’ is a

given but the infrastructure to support deployment is a limited factor

• Year 2010– Three cooling challenges

• System, rack, data center• Year 2021

– Green designs imperative…

Source: Loukas Paraschis, Cisco, DOE, OIDA OPTOmism, IBM Research, IDC

Power and cooling spending out of control…

Translucent Inc

Broadband technology

• Broadband subscribers per 100 inhabitants, by technology

Denmark

Netherlan

Norway

Switzer

Iceland

SwedenKore

Finlan

mbourg

Canada

United K

ingdom

Belgium

German

United S

Austra

Austria

New Zea

landSpa

Irelan

Hungar

Portug

Poland

Slovak R

Mexico

Other Fibre/LAN CableDSL

Source: OECD

What is the effect if graph is mostly red?

Translucent Inc

Architecture evolution – FTTH access

Source: Loukas Paraschis, Cisco, Lange, Deutsche Telekom AG

Power consumption expected to rise fast…

Translucent Inc

Photonics will become

integrated...

Translucent Inc

Moore’s Law photonics to follow?

Sources: UCSB, OIDA Photonics Integration Forum, Intel

CMOS very successful can we learn?

Translucent Inc

PIC trends over 3 decades

100000

1000000

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

ount COBRA/35P

PhilipsOpto+LucentNTTInfineraFoundry

Focal planeFocal plane

Nanophotonic Integration Technology

GenericIntegration Technology

Source: Meint Smit, TU/e OIDA forum Oct 2008

InP-Membrane on Silicon (IMOS)III-V on silicon (3-5OS)

Photonics is expected to become digital…

Translucent Inc

Integrated photonics over 4 decades…

Courtesy of R. Nagarajan & M. Smit (LEOS Newsletter, 2007)1. S.E. Miller, 19692. I. Hayashi, 19703. J. Shibata, 19844. O. Wada, 19865. T. Koch, 19916. M. Zirngibl, 19957. C. Steenbergen, 19968. C. Herben, 19999. L. Coldren, 200210. Y. Yoshikuni, 200211. Y. Suzaki, 200212. M. Masanovic, 200313. ASIP/III-V, 200414. R. Nagarajan, 200515. R. Nagarajan, 200616. M. Kato, 200717. R. Nagarajan, 2007

Not shown (EDG-WDM):V. Tolstikhin, 44-channel dynamic equalizer, 2002;V. Tolstikhin, 44-channel power monitor, 2003;A. Densmore, 32-channel receiver, 2005;V. Tolstikhin, 3-channel ONU triplexer, 2005

Sources: OneChip Photonics; Valery Tolstikhin

Poised for big impact in fiber comms

Translucent Inc

New optical technologies for the edge

• Consumer bandwidth demands are the driving force – Applications, architectures, services, content distribution

• Photonic Integrated Circuits– Lower costs– Use less space– Consume less power– Better performance

• FTTH Delivers– Very high bandwidth– Network efficiencies– Future proof technology

Source: OneChip Photonics

PICs are the economical solution…

Translucent Inc

Photonic integrated circuits save power

• Important roles for green photonics in reducing power consumption in communications and computing– Short term – further deployment and upgrading of optical communications

links with lower mW/Gb/s, also leads to reduced cooling requirements and improved cooling capability

– Medium and Long term – new computing hardware architectures employing optical interfaces between processing, logic, and memory will lead to higher flops/W

Sources: Lightwire, IBM

Tighter integration leads to lower power

Translucent Inc

What do we need to do technically?

• Even more sophisticated modulation formats– Current systems at 40 Gbps use DPSK– Coming systems will be Polarization Multiplexed QPSK with coherent

detection– Next: 16QAM? Multi-ring constellations?

• More optical bandwidth– Beyond C+L band

• Higher power fibers• Photonic integrated circuits

– Game-changer for the edge (FTTH)• New laser diode/modulator schemes maybe non

semiconductor ????

If we don’t act this will take place in Asia…

US is in danger of losing leadership in OE R&D

Translucent Inc

Data-centers need to scale also...

Translucent Inc

The Ethernet ecosystem evolves

Research, Education and Government Facilities

ResearchNetworks

Broadband Access

Data Centers and Enterprise

EnterpriseNetworks

Content Providers

ContentNetworks

Internet BackboneNetworks

Internet eXchange andInterconnection Points

BroadbandAccess Networks

Source: J. D/Ambrosia, Force10 Networks

Datacenters high speed intersections

Translucent Inc

Why higher speed Ethernet?

Fundamental bottlenecks are happening everywhereIncreased # of users

Increased accessrates and methods

Increased services++ =

As demonstrated by the number of ISPs: Comcast, AOL, YahooBB, NTT, Cox, EasyNet, Rogers, BT, ...

EFM, xDSL, WiMax, xPON, Cable, WiFi,3G/4G…

YouTube, BitTorrent, VOD, Facebook, Kazaa, Netflix, iTunes, 2nd life, Gaming…

Source: IEEE 802.3 HSSG Tutorial, Nov 2007.

Bandwidth explosioneverywhere

Higher demands on the network

Translucent Inc

Demand outpacing equipment development

2006 2008

Switch/router R&D trend

Internet datacenterdemand

Data-centers are ‘under pressure’

Translucent Inc

Future data-center evolution…

64 x 1Tb linksor

640 x 100GE links

160 x 100GE linkswith 5x100GE LAGs

16Tb/switch

400G+ solutions are needed

Translucent Inc

Calibration with broadband leader

(Japan)

Translucent Inc

Expansion of Broadband Traffic Amount in Japan (Oct 2009)

Source: Japan Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications

ffic （G

bps）

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 20081997 19981999 2000 2001

Peak Traffic of domestic major IX*1

Average Traffic of domestic major IX*1

Broadband service subscriber’stotal traffic amount (Estimate)

*1 domestic major Internet eXchanges: NSPIXP, JPIX & JPNAP

30% increase per year

Internet traffic in Japan Tbps

Translucent Inc

Broadband Services in Japan (Oct 2009)

Mar. Mar. Mar. Mar. Mar. Mar. Mar. Mar.Mar.2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Japan Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications

r of S

2000 2001Mar. Mar.

Targetof NTT@2010

Population : 128 million in Japan (2005)Households : 49 million

totalFTTHDSLCATV

Fiber based broadband obvious

Translucent Inc

Japan’s R&D example 10Tbps• Development of next-generation high-efficiency network

device technology– The goal of this project is to increase the speed and efficiency of

router switches and storage area networks for the purpose of energy conservation.

• Development of device technology to create edge routers capable of over 10Tbps

• Development of low-power-consumption device technology with a transmission capacity of 16Gbps on LAN-SAN, and demonstration of networks using such technology

• As noted by OITDA – Japanese trade association (as per OIDA in Washington DC), October 2009

Japan aggressive on R&D…Sources: OIDA research, IOA

Translucent Inc

22-Jul-10, Slide prepared by David Williams

Michael Lebby, PhD MBA DEng CEngGeneral Manager & Chief Technology Officer

TranslucentEarth Abundant Materials Technology

Translucent Inc952 Commercial St

lebby@translucentinc.com

Palo Alto, CA94303

Thank you for listening

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