Operational Wind Observations and Forecasts

Operational Wind Observationsand Forecasts

Andrew Stern, NOAA/NWSLocal Forecast and Warnings Program

ManagerSilver Spring, MD

Andrew.Stern@noaa.gov

AMS Summer Community Meeting August 2009, Norman, Oklahoma

The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service.

AMS Community Meeting, Norman, OKAugust 2009

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Outline

• Wind Observing Capabilities• New Opportunities for Wind

Observing• Operational Wind Forecasts• Benefits of PBL Observations• Future Directions

AMS Community Meeting, Norman, OKAugust 2009

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Operational Wind Observing Capabilities

• High Frequency METAR Observations - available via MADIS (madis.noaa.gov) from select ASOS/AWOS

• 230 stations - 5 minute resolution - 10 meter winds

AMS Community Meeting, Norman, OKAugust 2009

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Operational Wind Observing Capabilities

• Doppler Radar Velocity Wind Profiles (VWP) – available from 88D & TDWR

TMSY – VWP 0905Z 08/29/05 TMSY – LR REFL – Hurricane Katrina

AMS Community Meeting, Norman, OKAugust 2009

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Operational Wind Observing Capabilities

• MDCRS (Meteorological Data Collection and Reporting System)• TAMDAR (Tropospheric Airborne Meteorological Data Reporting)

AMS Community Meeting, Norman, OKAugust 2009

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Operational Wind Observing Capabilities

• GPS Radiosondes• 1 second resolution• 65/92 sites upgraded

• Marine Buoys & C-MAN• Profiler Network

Modernization• RASS provides Temp• 6 & 60 min

Resolution National Profiler Network (35 Units)

AMS Community Meeting, Norman, OKAugust 2009

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Remote Sensing of Winds

ASCAT – Advanced ScatterometerQuikSCAT – Quick ScatterometerPossible QuikSCAT follow-on activity: Dual-Frequency Scatterometer (DFS) system to be launched aboard the Japanese Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA)'s GCOM-W2

and GCOM-W3 missions

METOP

AMS Community Meeting, Norman, OKAugust 2009

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New Opportunities for Wind Observations

• Instrumented Tall Towers

• Offshore wind observations & platforms (through offshore energy lease agreements)

• SODAR/LIDAR from research testbeds

• Satellite-based LIDARs

• New partnerships with the wind enterprise to share resources

Locations of CONUS Wind FarmsSource: NPR Maps

AMS Community Meeting, Norman, OKAugust 2009

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Quick Tour: Operational Wind Forecasts

•Analyses–RTMA 5km

•Analyses–RTMA 5km

•Forecasts–NDFD 5km

•Analyses–RTMA 5km

•Forecasts–NDFD 5km–RUC 13km

•Analyses–RTMA 5km

•Forecasts–NDFD 5km–RUC 13km–NAM 12km

•Analyses–RTMA 5km

•Forecasts–NDFD 5km–RUC 13km–NAM 12km–GFS 35km

•Analyses–RTMA 5km

•Forecasts–NDFD 5km–RUC 13km–NAM 12km–GFS 35km–NAM 925mb 12km

•Analyses–RTMA 5km

•Forecasts–NDFD 5km–RUC 13km–NAM 12km–GFS 35km–NAM 925mb 12km–NAM PBL Height

•Analyses–RTMA 5km

•Forecasts–NDFD 5km–RUC 13km–NAM 12km–GFS 35km–NAM 925mb 12km–NAM PBL Height

•Experimental–Rapid Refresh 13km

•Analyses–RTMA 5km

•Forecasts–NDFD 5km–RUC 13km–NAM 12km–GFS 35km–NAM 925mb 12km–NAM PBL Height

•Experimental–Rapid Refresh 13km

–High Res RR 3km

AMS Community Meeting, Norman, OKAugust 2009

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Benefits of PBL Observations

• Aviation• Severe Weather• Surface

Transportation• Hydrology• Air Quality• Fire Weather• Marine Weather• Renewable

Energy*

Icing, Turbulence, CloudsConvective InitializationPrecipitation Type, GustinessFreezing Level (LLJ)Depth of Air MassTransport Winds, Plume DispersalDepth of Marine Layer, Turb XferShear, Winds, Icing

*Not currently a NOAA Program

Programs Benefits

AMS Community Meeting, Norman, OKAugust 2009

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Looking Toward the Future

• Stakeholder Interaction– Coordination on NOAA/Wx Enterprise Roles– Enterprise requirements for observations, model

outputs and generalized products– Populating the WIDB/4D Data Cube– Partnering to leverage existing observations – Metadata!

• NOAA Activities– Participate on OFCM/CIOS and AMS

Committees/APTs– Mission-oriented gap analysis/Tactical

deployment for gap filling– Improve analyses & models