Nusantara consulting final global review

NUSANTARA CONSULTING

VYP Business Challenges and Strategic Solutions

University of IndonesiaIki Sari Dewi Dendi Suhubdy Widia Winarni Bunga Rabecca Theresia

Industry Overview

Company Analysis

Issues Description

Prioritization of Issues and Rationale

Issues Analysis and Recommendation

Action PlanOutline

Industry AnalysisPorter’s 5 Forces Radar

Competitor Analysis

Endemol (1994)business core entertainment, reality TV, game shows, comedy, drama sport, docu-dramas, animations, features and features films. Business strategy worldwide network

Boomerang (1994)business core: entertainment factual, sport business strategy: become a major supplier through both organic growth and strategic acquisition

Icon Films (1990) business core: documentary and factual entertainment business strategy: innovate, provoke, and engage the content makers to provide internationally programmes

Denham Production (1983)business core food and documentary programsbusiness strategy build professional atmosphere

Industry Overview

Company Analysis

Issues Description

Action PlanOutline

Company Analysis

Strength1. Good reputation in program production2. Network and connection to broadcaster3. Creative and artistic program making people

Weakness1. Very reliant on its founders2. Cost discrepancy in program making3. Inadequate production equipment4. Tight working schedule

Opportunities1. Expansion on Corporate Ads Video2. Merchandise Commission on New Children Program3. Increasing interest of documentary and drama series4. Re-commission of drama series

Threats1. Reduction in commission revenue portion 2. Difficulty in Debt Financing3. Delayed commission payment from broadcasters4. Euro Crisis

Industry Overview

Company Analysis

Issues Description

Action PlanOutline

Issues Description

Re-Commissioned Drama Program

Issues Description

Proposal to Expand into Corporate Advertising Videos

Issues Description

Fee negotiation for New Children’s Program

Issues Description

A New Documentary by VYP

Issues Description

Accident at Studio

Industry Overview

Company Analysis

Issues Description

Action PlanOutline

CriteriaDirect impact on VYP’s profitability in the short-term

Long-term impact on VYP’s sustainability and profitability

Category

Problem

Proposal

Complication of ImplementationEthical Issue

Accident at Studio

Re-Commission Drama Program

Fee Negotiation on New Children’s Program

Proposal to Expand Into Corporate Advertising Video

Prioritization of Issues and RationaleDirect impact Long-term impact Complication

A New Documentary

Re-Commissioned Drama Series

Fee Negotiation on New Children Program

Accident At Studio

Proposal to Expand into Corporate Ads

Problem

Proposal

Ethical Issue

Industry Overview

Company Analysis

Issues Description

Action PlanOutline

“Banks, Friend of Foe” – A New Documentary by VYP

Issue Background

Continue production with interview and CGI cuts

Continue production without cuts

VYP is dealing with the unprofitable “Banks, Friend or Foe” documentary

project

BudgetedWith Cuts

No Cuts

£50,000.0

£100,000.0

£150,000.0

£200,000.0

£250,000.0

£300,000.0

£350,000.0

revenueCost

11.03%margin

0%margin

£30,000loss

Financial Analysis

BudgetedWith Cuts

No Cuts

£50,000.0

£100,000.0

£150,000.0

£200,000.0

£250,000.0

£300,000.0

£350,000.0

revenueCost

£30,000loss

24%Increase in cost

Financial Analysis

£30,000loss

= 4.54%Documentaries opt profit 2011< 16.66%

Average documentaries contribution of profit 2011 per program

Financial Analysis

LOSS IS WITHIN ACCEPTANCE LIMIT

Importance of Documentaries

DRAMA DOCUMENTARIES

ENTERTAINMENT COMEDY

“It is all about maintaining VYP’s core competence”

-Nusantara Consulting

DRAMA DOCUMENTARIES

ENTERTAINMENT COMEDY

“It is all about maintaining VYP’s core competence”

-Nusantara Consulting

Documentaries’ profitability remain competitive despite the new programDocumentaries are able to maintain its position as VYP’s top two contributor in terms of operating profit and operating margin

Strategic Analysis

Short-term Recommendation

Production with cuts Production without cuts

Financial

Short-Term Recommendation(Until ‘Banks Friends or Foe’ program finish):

Continue production as planned without any cuts

Break Event PointLoss within

acceptance limit

Strategic Risk of future lossesMaintain sustainable

profitability

Short-term Recommendation

Short-term Recommendation to Finish ‘Banks Friends or Foe’ Program

Modify Project

Implementation &

Monitoring

Discrepancy Control

1. Program Producer and Director work together in the modification of project plan.

2. Decide critical level of each cost for future discrepancy control

1. List all activities to finish the program

2. Decide person in charge for each activities

3. Decide person monitoring each activities

1. Make cost reduction schedule when another discrepancy happen

2. Reduction will be based on critical level in project plan

Medium & Long-term Recommendation

Medium-Term Recommendation:

• Implement Enterprise Resource Planning system in budget making

• Develop standardized contingency plans• Create an unforeseen expense account on the

budgeted cost structure

Long-Term Recommendation:

• Develop rating-based commission system

Long unsolved problem / potential future problem:Repetitive discrepancy between actual cost and budgeted cost

Re-Commission New Drama Series

Proposal Background

VYP is being offered a proposal to re-commission its previous drama seriesUnavailability of main actor

Lower margin compared to the previous series (5% from 7.6%)

VYP production schedule can be delayed or changed

Lower profitability

Proposal Constraints Implications

Drama43%

Docu-mentaries

Comedy26%

Entertainment12% Drama

Docu-mentaries

Comedy38%

Enter-tainment

12%Re-Commission New Drama Series

Analysis of Acceptance

Drama Has High Cash Flow Contribution

Revenue Structure 2011Average Revenue per hour 2011

Rowing Drama Re-Commission Contributes Significant Cash Flow

First Series

Second Series

MARGIN

£ 250,000

Cash flow is important given debt financing has been difficult to raise

Increased Credentials for Future Commissioned Program and International Sales

Coincide with World Rowing Championship

Increase viewers’ interestReceive high rating

Increase VYP’s bargaining power to demand higher commission from broadcaster

Re-commission will convince the international broadcasters that this drama series is worth broadcasted internationally. Thus, increase international sales

Re-commission of this drama will also increase VYP’s credentials in drama series production, thus VYP can commission more drama programs in the future.

Benefits of Drama Re-Commission Success

Accept the Proposal to Re-Commission Drama

Implementation Alternatives

Low Risk High

Safest alternatives in terms of production schedule and production cost+

Termination of John Strong contract with GGG

Re-Arranging Scenes Shooting Schedule

Modify Story line

Contract termination could significantly change the margin forecasted

Could harm VYP’s relationship with GGG and GGG’s broadcaster.

-Full story with main actor can be delivered to viewers+

Increase production cost

Delayed production timeline

-Less pressure on the timeline

No increase in production cost due to contract termination and re-arranging schedule

Sacrifice the story line which is important for drama quality.-

Proposal Background

VYP has been offered two fee methods for its new children’s program

Sammy Squirrel Program’s payment

methods

Fee without merchandise right

£ 6,300,000

Fee with merchandise right

£ 4,095,000

Financial Analysis

Fee without merchandise right

£ 6,300,000REVENUE

COST £ 5,607,000

PROFIT £ 693,000(benchmark: 12% margin as general entertainment’s profit)

£ 0MERCHANDISE PROFIT

Breakeven Analysis

Financial Analysis

Fee with merchandise right

£ 4,095,000REVENUE

COST £ 5,607,000

PROFIT £ 693,000(benchmark: 12% margin as general entertainment’s profit)

£ 2,205,000MERCHANDISE PROFIT

Breakeven Analysis

40 %Merchandise SalesMargin25%

£ 22,050,000

Financial Analysis

Current

£4,095,000Inflow

Outflow£ 5,607,000

Internal additional financing

£ 1,512,000

Future

£2,205,000Inflow

(From merchandise royalty)

50% of 2011 total

operating profit

• Broadcasters pay commission late

• Debt financing is difficult

Financial risk of option with merchandise right is too high and benefit is uncertain

Option with merchandise right means VYP must spend £1,512,000 to finish the program

Financial Analysis

Option without merchandise right will directly contribute £ 693,000 to VYP

£ 693,000 profit

20%of 2011 total

operating profit

• No risk of loss if merchandise sales is lower than £22,050,000

• Doesn’t need additional internal financing

Financial risk of option without merchandise right is low and the benefit is high

Strategic Analysis

Teletubbies Should Not be Sammy Squirrel’s Benchmark

Sales£ 23,000,000 in the 1st year

£ 33,000,000 with inflation

Teletubbies should not be the benchmark• Merchandise sales achieved after being

aired internationally. Sammy Squirrel is a pilot project only in UK

• Teletubbies sold 4 complementary characters. Sammy Squirrel sells only one

Strategic Analysis

Merchandise Sales of £ 22,050,000 is Difficult to Achieve

High Merchandise Sales

High Program Popularity

International sales

“Has not been secured yet”

Merchandise Sales of £ 22,050,000 is Difficult to Achieve

Strategic Analysis

Monte Carlo SimulationShare of merchandise

The drop down of 1% of fees for merchandise

The number of merchandise sold.

Without Merchandise Right With Merchandise Right

Financial

Choose Option Without Merchandise Right

Low Risk & High BenefitHigh Risk & Uncertain

Benefit

StrategicCertain cash flow despite uncertain

popularity

High Sales Difficult to Achieve

Medium and Long Term Recommendation

Medium Term Recommendation : How to foster International sales faster?

Foster international sales and enlarge business line through Digital Media

Proposal To Expand Into Corporate Advertising Video

Issue Description

VYP is being offered corporate advertising as its one of product lines

Opportunity for VYP to obtain profitability from selling corporate ads videos

Financial Analysis

VYP’s Expected Cost Breakdown from Corporate Advertising Video

£ 17,000(£ 5,000)(£ 4,800)(£ 6,000)(£ 1,200)(£ 1,500)

REVENUESTUDIO HIRE

EXPECTED VALUE (£ 700)

ACTORSFILM CREWSCRIPTINGMUSIC

£ 17,000(£ 5,000)(£ 2,800)(£ 6,000)(£ 1,200)(£ 1,500)

40% 60%First Video

Financial Analysis

Corporate Ads Contributes High Margin but the Business Size is Considerably Small

EXPECTED VALUE OF REVENUE All Video £ 17,000

£ 442,000

Production per Year(assumption)

2nd and N-th Video £ 1,955

EXPECTED VALUE OF PROFIT 1st Video (£ 700)

£ 48,175

Production per Year(assumption)

Financial Analysis

Corporate Ads Contributes High Margin but the Business Size is Considerably Small

Acceptance of Proposal

Overall Promising

Profitability

Small Business Size

Accept Proposal As the 4th Priority

Film Crew Cost

Recruit Interns from Film AcademiesProposal To Expand Into Corporate Advertising Video

Recommendation on Implementation

Film Crew Cost Can be Reduced to Increase Profitability

BENEFITS

• Lower cost for film crew

• Becoming a part of VYP’s community work for students

• Becoming a human resources strategy to attract young talents for future full-time employment.

Accident at The Studio

Proposal Background

Accident happened at VYP’s rented studio which arise a concern on health

and safety issue of workforce.

VYP is being exposed to the workplace safety issue

Long-Term Impacts

Accident at StudioImpact to legal Risk

and Human Resource Risk

Lower Productivity and Credibility

Damage

Recommendation

Develop builders’

working shift

Recruit Interns from Film

Academies

Industry Overview

Company Analysis

Issues Description

Action PlanOutline

A NEW DOCUMENTARY BY VYP

RE-COMMISSION NEW DRAMA SERIES

FEE NEGOTIATION ON NEW CHILDREN’S PROGRAM

PROPOSAL TO EXPAND INTO CORPORATE ADVERTISING VIDEO

ACCIDENT AT THE STUDIO

SHORT TERM RECOMMENDATION

LONG TERM RECOMMENDATION

CONTINUE PRODUCTION WITHOUT CUTTING THE INTERVIEW AND CGI

MEDIUM TERM RECOMMENDATIONDEVELOP STANDARDIZED

CONTINGENCY PLAN

CREATE UNFORSEEN EXPENSE ACCOUNT

DEVELOP RATING BASED COMMISSION SYSTEM

SHORT TERM RECOMMENDATION

LONG TERM RECOMMENDATION

CONTINUE PRODUCTION WITHOUT CUTTING THE INTERVIEW AND CGI

MEDIUM TERM RECOMMENDATIONDEVELOP STANDARDIZED

CONTINGENCY PLAN

CREATE UNFORSEEN EXPENSE ACCOUNT

DEVELOP RATING BASED COMMISSION SYSTEM

ACCEPTANCE RECOMMENDATION

ACCEPT THE RE-COMMISION PROPOSAL

IMPLEMENTATION TERMINATE JOHN STRONG’S

CONTRACT

RE-ARRANGE SCENE SHOOTING SCHEDULE

MODIFY THE STORY LINE

ACCEPT THE RE-COMMISION PROPOSAL

IMPLEMENTATION TERMINATE JOHN STRONG’S

CONTRACT

RE-ARRANGE SCENE SHOOTING SCHEDULE

MODIFY THE STORY LINE

PRODUCE SAMMY SQUIRREL WITHOUT MERCHANDISE RIGHT

FURTHER ACTION RE-NEGOTIATE THE MERCHANDISE RIGHT AND REVENUE TRADE OFF

PRODUCE SAMMY SQUIRREL WITHOUT MERCHANDISE RIGHT

FURTHER ACTION RE-NEGOTIATE THE MERCHANDISE RIGHT AND REVENUE TRADE OFF

ACCEPT THE PROPOSAL TO EXPAND INTO CORPORATE ADVERTISING VIDEO

IMPLEMENTATIONRECRUIT INTERN FROM FILM

ACADEMY TO REDUCE FILM CREW COST

ACCEPT THE PROPOSAL TO EXPAND INTO CORPORATE ADVERTISING VIDEO

IMPLEMENTATIONRECRUIT INTERN FROM FILM

ACADEMY TO REDUCE FILM CREW COST

RECOMMENDATION

DEVELOP BUILDERS’ WORKING SHIFT

RECRUITS INTERN FROM FILM ACADEMY

APPENDIXCIMA GBC 2012: NUSANTARA CONSULTING

Banks Friend or FoeBanks Friend or Foe

Forecast Revenue £ 290,000.00

Forecasted Margin - Before Use £ 32,000.00

Forecasted Margin - After Use -£ 30,000.00

Initial Forecasted Cost £ 258,000.00 After Plan Cost £ 320,000.00 Forecasted Initial Cost % of Revenue 89%Forecasted After Cost % of Revenue 110%Increase in Cost % if Cont. Project 24%Documentaries - Margin £ 660,000.00 Forecasted Share of Profit Before 4.848%Forecasted Share of Lost After -4.545%

Corporate Ads VideosCorporate Ads

First Video Second and n-th Video40% 60% 40% 60%

Revenue £ 17,000.00 £ 17,000.00 £ 17,000.00 £ 17,000.00

Studio Hire £ 5,000.00 £ 5,000.00 £ 4,250.00 £ 4,250.00

Actors £ 2,800.00 £ 4,800.00 £ 2,380.00 £ 4,080.00

Film Crew £ 6,000.00 £ 6,000.00 £ 5,100.00 £ 5,100.00

Scripting £ 1,200.00 £ 1,200.00 £ 1,020.00 £ 1,020.00

Music £ 1,500.00 £ 1,500.00 £ 1,275.00 £ 1,275.00

Total Cost £ 16,500.00 £ 18,500.00 £ 14,025.00 £ 15,725.00

Operation Margin £ 500.00 -£ 1,500.00 £ 2,975.00 £ 1,275.00

Expected Value £ 200.00 -£ 900.00 £ 1,190.00 £ 765.00 Total EV -£700.00 £1,955.00

Total Revenue 2011 £ 28,609,750.00 Total Oper. Profit 2011 £ 2,572,000.00 Number of Weeks 2Number of Corporate Ads 26Revenue from Video £ 17,000.00 Total Revenue £ 442,000.00 % of Total Revenue 2011 1.54%Profitability £ 48,175.00 % of Total Profitability 2011 1.87%

Comprehensive Income StatementComprehensive Income Statement (in 000 pounds)

Period 30/09/2011 30/09/2011 30/09/2010 30/09/2010Sales Revenue £ 28,609.75 100% £ 20,621.95 100% Documentaries £ 6,701.24 23% £ 6,901.50 33% Drama Series £ 6,820.80 24% £ - 0% Scripted Comedy £ 10,407.96 36% £ 9,840.00 48% General Enter. £ 3,379.75 12% £ 2,970.45 14%Total £ 27,309.75 95% £ 19,711.95 96%International £ 1,300.00 5% £ 910.00 4%Operating Costs £ 25,228.00 88% £ 18,116.00 88% Documentaries £ 6,041.24 21% £ 6,207.50 30% Drama Series £ 6,300.80 22% £ - 0% Scripted Comedy £ 9,422.96 33% £ 8,835.00 43% General Enter. £ 2,972.75 10% £ 2,670.45 13%Total £ 24,737.75 86% £ 17,712.95 86%International £ 490.00 2% £ 405.00 2%Operating Profit £ 3,382.00 12% £ 2,504.00 12% Documentaries £ 660.00 2% £ 694.00 3% Drama Series £ 520.00 2% £ - 0% Scripted Comedy £ 985.00 3% £ 1,005.00 5% General Enter. £ 407.00 1% £ 300.00 1%Total £ 2,572.00 9% £ 1,999.00 10%International £ 810.00 3% £ 505.00 2%Adm. Expenses £ 270.00 1% £ 240.00 1%Finance Costs (net) £ 133.00 0% £ 145.00 1%Tax Expense (30%) £ 894.00 3% £ 636.00 3%Profit for Period £ 2,085.00 7% £ 1,483.00 7%

Analysis of Programes and Revenues

Analysis of Programs and Revenues Sep-11

Programme GenreNo. of Diff. Progs Total Prog. Compl Total No. of Prog Hours

Average Com. Revenue/hour Total Revenue

Documentaries 6 45 36.4 184.1 6701 Drama Series 2 23 16 426.3 6821 Scripted Comedy 4 90 41.4 251.4 10408 General Enter. 6 39 27.5 122.9 3380Total 18 197 121.3 984.7 27310International 1300Total Revenues 28610

Analysis of Programes and Revenues 9/1/2010

Programme GenreNo. of Diff. Progs Total Prog. Compl Total No. of Prog Hours

Average Com. Revenue/hour Total Revenue

Documentaries 5 40 32.1 215 6902 Drama Series 0 0 0 0 0 Scripted Comedy 4 80 32.8 300 9840 General Enter. 5 35 20.5 144.9 2970Total 14 155 85.4 659.9 19712International 910Total Revenues 20622

Sensitivity Analysis - Sensitivity Table (Profitability Analysis of Merchandise Sold and Share of Merchandise

Margin)Sensitivity Analysis - Sensitivity Table (Profitability Analysis of Merchandise Sold and Share of Merchandise Margin)

Merchandise Sold

Ownership Shares of

Merchandise Sales

-£ 12,000.00 5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 20,000,000 25,000,000 30,000,000 35,000,000 0% £ 693,000.00 £ 693,000.00 £ 693,000.00 £ 693,000.00 £ 693,000.00 £ 693,000.00 £ 693,000.00 5% £ 479,875.00 £ 542,375.00 £ 604,875.00 £ 667,375.00 £ 729,875.00 £ 792,375.00 £ 854,875.00

10% £ 266,750.00 £ 391,750.00 £ 516,750.00 £ 641,750.00 £ 766,750.00 £ 891,750.00 £ 1,016,750.00 15% £ 53,625.00 £ 241,125.00 £ 428,625.00 £ 616,125.00 £ 803,625.00 £ 991,125.00 £ 1,178,625.00 20%-£ 159,500.00 £ 90,500.00 £ 340,500.00 £ 590,500.00 £ 840,500.00 £ 1,090,500.00 £ 1,340,500.00 25%-£ 372,625.00 -£ 60,125.00 £ 252,375.00 £ 564,875.00 £ 877,375.00 £ 1,189,875.00 £ 1,502,375.00 30%-£ 585,750.00 -£ 210,750.00 £ 164,250.00 £ 539,250.00 £ 914,250.00 £ 1,289,250.00 £ 1,664,250.00 35%-£ 798,875.00 -£ 361,375.00 £ 76,125.00 £ 513,625.00 £ 951,125.00 £ 1,388,625.00 £ 1,826,125.00 40%-£ 1,012,000.00 -£ 512,000.00 -£ 12,000.00 £ 488,000.00 £ 988,000.00 £ 1,488,000.00 £ 1,988,000.00 45%-£ 1,225,125.00 -£ 662,625.00 -£ 100,125.00 £ 462,375.00 £ 1,024,875.00 £ 1,587,375.00 £ 2,149,875.00 50%-£ 1,438,250.00 -£ 813,250.00 -£ 188,250.00 £ 436,750.00 £ 1,061,750.00 £ 1,686,750.00 £ 2,311,750.00 55%-£ 1,651,375.00 -£ 963,875.00 -£ 276,375.00 £ 411,125.00 £ 1,098,625.00 £ 1,786,125.00 £ 2,473,625.00 60%-£ 1,864,500.00 -£ 1,114,500.00 -£ 364,500.00 £ 385,500.00 £ 1,135,500.00 £ 1,885,500.00 £ 2,635,500.00 65%-£ 2,077,625.00 -£ 1,265,125.00 -£ 452,625.00 £ 359,875.00 £ 1,172,375.00 £ 1,984,875.00 £ 2,797,375.00 70%-£ 2,290,750.00 -£ 1,415,750.00 -£ 540,750.00 £ 334,250.00 £ 1,209,250.00 £ 2,084,250.00 £ 2,959,250.00 75%-£ 2,503,875.00 -£ 1,566,375.00 -£ 628,875.00 £ 308,625.00 £ 1,246,125.00 £ 2,183,625.00 £ 3,121,125.00 80%-£ 2,717,000.00 -£ 1,717,000.00 -£ 717,000.00 £ 283,000.00 £ 1,283,000.00 £ 2,283,000.00 £ 3,283,000.00 85%-£ 2,930,125.00 -£ 1,867,625.00 -£ 805,125.00 £ 257,375.00 £ 1,319,875.00 £ 2,382,375.00 £ 3,444,875.00 90%-£ 3,143,250.00 -£ 2,018,250.00 -£ 893,250.00 £ 231,750.00 £ 1,356,750.00 £ 2,481,750.00 £ 3,606,750.00 95%-£ 3,356,375.00 -£ 2,168,875.00 -£ 981,375.00 £ 206,125.00 £ 1,393,625.00 £ 2,581,125.00 £ 3,768,625.00

Sensitivity Analysis - Sensitivity Table (Profitability Analysis of Merchandise Sold and Share of Merchandise

Margin)

Sensitivity Analysis - Sensitivity Table (Profitability Analysis of Merchandise Sold and Share of Merchandise Margin)Merchandise Sold

Ownership Shares of

Merchandise Sales

£ 933,000.00 5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 20,000,000 25,000,000 30,000,000 35,000,000 0% £ 693,000.00 £ 693,000.00 £ 693,000.00 £ 693,000.00 £ 693,000.00 £ 693,000.00 £ 693,000.00 5% £ 598,000.00 £ 660,500.00 £ 723,000.00 £ 785,500.00 £ 848,000.00 £ 910,500.00 £ 973,000.00

10% £ 503,000.00 £ 628,000.00 £ 753,000.00 £ 878,000.00 £ 1,003,000.00 £ 1,128,000.00 £ 1,253,000.00 15% £ 408,000.00 £ 595,500.00 £ 783,000.00 £ 970,500.00 £ 1,158,000.00 £ 1,345,500.00 £ 1,533,000.00 20% £ 313,000.00 £ 563,000.00 £ 813,000.00 £ 1,063,000.00 £ 1,313,000.00 £ 1,563,000.00 £ 1,813,000.00 25% £ 218,000.00 £ 530,500.00 £ 843,000.00 £ 1,155,500.00 £ 1,468,000.00 £ 1,780,500.00 £ 2,093,000.00 30% £ 123,000.00 £ 498,000.00 £ 873,000.00 £ 1,248,000.00 £ 1,623,000.00 £ 1,998,000.00 £ 2,373,000.00 35% £ 28,000.00 £ 465,500.00 £ 903,000.00 £ 1,340,500.00 £ 1,778,000.00 £ 2,215,500.00 £ 2,653,000.00 40% -£ 67,000.00 £ 433,000.00 £ 933,000.00 £ 1,433,000.00 £ 1,933,000.00 £ 2,433,000.00 £ 2,933,000.00 45% -£ 162,000.00 £ 400,500.00 £ 963,000.00 £ 1,525,500.00 £ 2,088,000.00 £ 2,650,500.00 £ 3,213,000.00 50% -£ 257,000.00 £ 368,000.00 £ 993,000.00 £ 1,618,000.00 £ 2,243,000.00 £ 2,868,000.00 £ 3,493,000.00 55% -£ 352,000.00 £ 335,500.00 £ 1,023,000.00 £ 1,710,500.00 £ 2,398,000.00 £ 3,085,500.00 £ 3,773,000.00 60% -£ 447,000.00 £ 303,000.00 £ 1,053,000.00 £ 1,803,000.00 £ 2,553,000.00 £ 3,303,000.00 £ 4,053,000.00 65% -£ 542,000.00 £ 270,500.00 £ 1,083,000.00 £ 1,895,500.00 £ 2,708,000.00 £ 3,520,500.00 £ 4,333,000.00 70% -£ 637,000.00 £ 238,000.00 £ 1,113,000.00 £ 1,988,000.00 £ 2,863,000.00 £ 3,738,000.00 £ 4,613,000.00 75% -£ 732,000.00 £ 205,500.00 £ 1,143,000.00 £ 2,080,500.00 £ 3,018,000.00 £ 3,955,500.00 £ 4,893,000.00 80% -£ 827,000.00 £ 173,000.00 £ 1,173,000.00 £ 2,173,000.00 £ 3,173,000.00 £ 4,173,000.00 £ 5,173,000.00 85% -£ 922,000.00 £ 140,500.00 £ 1,203,000.00 £ 2,265,500.00 £ 3,328,000.00 £ 4,390,500.00 £ 5,453,000.00 90% -£ 1,017,000.00 £ 108,000.00 £ 1,233,000.00 £ 2,358,000.00 £ 3,483,000.00 £ 4,608,000.00 £ 5,733,000.00 95% -£ 1,112,000.00 £ 75,500.00 £ 1,263,000.00 £ 2,450,500.00 £ 3,638,000.00 £ 4,825,500.00 £ 6,013,000.00

Sensitivity Analysis - Sensitivity Table (Profitability Analysis of Merchandise Sold and Increase in Share in

Return of Drop of 1% fee)

Sensitivity Analysis - Sensitivity Table (Profitability Analysis of Merchandise Sold and Increase in Share in Return of Drop of 1% fee)Merchandise Sold

Increase in Share in

Return of Drop of 1%

£ 933,000.00 5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 20,000,000 25,000,000 30,000,000 35,000,000 2.5% £ 1,130,000.00 £ 1,630,000.00 £ 2,130,000.00 £ 2,630,000.00 £ 3,130,000.00 £ 3,630,000.00 £ 4,130,000.00 7.5% £ 1,004,000.00 £ 1,504,000.00 £ 2,004,000.00 £ 2,504,000.00 £ 3,004,000.00 £ 3,504,000.00 £ 4,004,000.00

12.5% £ 878,000.00 £ 1,378,000.00 £ 1,878,000.00 £ 2,378,000.00 £ 2,878,000.00 £ 3,378,000.00 £ 3,878,000.00 17.5% £ 752,000.00 £ 1,252,000.00 £ 1,752,000.00 £ 2,252,000.00 £ 2,752,000.00 £ 3,252,000.00 £ 3,752,000.00 22.5% £ 626,000.00 £ 1,126,000.00 £ 1,626,000.00 £ 2,126,000.00 £ 2,626,000.00 £ 3,126,000.00 £ 3,626,000.00 27.5% £ 500,000.00 £ 1,000,000.00 £ 1,500,000.00 £ 2,000,000.00 £ 2,500,000.00 £ 3,000,000.00 £ 3,500,000.00 32.5% £ 374,000.00 £ 874,000.00 £ 1,374,000.00 £ 1,874,000.00 £ 2,374,000.00 £ 2,874,000.00 £ 3,374,000.00 37.5% £ 248,000.00 £ 748,000.00 £ 1,248,000.00 £ 1,748,000.00 £ 2,248,000.00 £ 2,748,000.00 £ 3,248,000.00 42.5% £ 122,000.00 £ 622,000.00 £ 1,122,000.00 £ 1,622,000.00 £ 2,122,000.00 £ 2,622,000.00 £ 3,122,000.00 47.5%-£ 4,000.00 £ 496,000.00 £ 996,000.00 £ 1,496,000.00 £ 1,996,000.00 £ 2,496,000.00 £ 2,996,000.00 52.5%-£ 130,000.00 £ 370,000.00 £ 870,000.00 £ 1,370,000.00 £ 1,870,000.00 £ 2,370,000.00 £ 2,870,000.00 57.5%-£ 256,000.00 £ 244,000.00 £ 744,000.00 £ 1,244,000.00 £ 1,744,000.00 £ 2,244,000.00 £ 2,744,000.00 62.5%-£ 382,000.00 £ 118,000.00 £ 618,000.00 £ 1,118,000.00 £ 1,618,000.00 £ 2,118,000.00 £ 2,618,000.00 67.5%-£ 508,000.00 -£ 8,000.00 £ 492,000.00 £ 992,000.00 £ 1,492,000.00 £ 1,992,000.00 £ 2,492,000.00 72.5%-£ 634,000.00 -£ 134,000.00 £ 366,000.00 £ 866,000.00 £ 1,366,000.00 £ 1,866,000.00 £ 2,366,000.00 77.5%-£ 760,000.00 -£ 260,000.00 £ 240,000.00 £ 740,000.00 £ 1,240,000.00 £ 1,740,000.00 £ 2,240,000.00 82.5%-£ 886,000.00 -£ 386,000.00 £ 114,000.00 £ 614,000.00 £ 1,114,000.00 £ 1,614,000.00 £ 2,114,000.00 87.5%-£ 1,012,000.00 -£ 512,000.00 -£ 12,000.00 £ 488,000.00 £ 988,000.00 £ 1,488,000.00 £ 1,988,000.00 92.5%-£ 1,138,000.00 -£ 638,000.00 -£ 138,000.00 £ 362,000.00 £ 862,000.00 £ 1,362,000.00 £ 1,862,000.00 97.5%-£ 1,264,000.00 -£ 764,000.00 -£ 264,000.00 £ 236,000.00 £ 736,000.00 £ 1,236,000.00 £ 1,736,000.00

Monte Carlo Simulation: Success Rate

Monte Carlo Simulation Loss Rate

Monte Carlo Input Assumptions

Name Cell Graph Min Mean Max 5% 95%Errors

Increase in Share in Return of Drop of 1% fee / Merchansise Rights

D21 0.538

1.019 0

Merchandise Selling / Merchansise Rights D22

5,060,823 7,017,707

46,128,980

5,359,363

10,571,620 0

Share of Merchandise Margin / Merchansise Rights

D18 0% 50% 100% 5% 95% 0

Monte Carlo Simulation Sensitivity Results

Rank For D12

Cell Name Description Merchandising!D12Profit / Merchansise RightsRegression Coeff.RSqr=0.966

#1 D18 Share of Merchandise Margin / Merchansise Rights RiskUniform(0,1,RiskStatic(0.4)) -0.926

#2 D21 Increase in Share in Return of Drop of 1% fee / Merchansise Rights

RiskNormal(0.875,0.0875,RiskStatic(0.875)) -0.245

#3 D22 Merchandise Selling / Merchansise Rights

RiskLognorm(2000000,2000000,RiskShift(5000000),RiskStatic(15000000)) 0.218

Distributions Assigned to Inputs

Name Description

Share of Merchandise Margin / Merchansise Rights RiskUniform(0,1,RiskStatic(0.4))

Merchandise Selling / Merchansise Rights

RiskLognorm(2000000,2000000,RiskShift(5000000),RiskStatic(15000000))

Increase in Share in Return of Drop of 1% fee / Merchansise Rights

RiskNormal(0.875,0.0875,RiskStatic(0.875))

Sensitivity Analysis: Merchandise Option

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