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Nuke Newcome
703-684-2900
www.sra.com
www.uavforum.com
Nuke Newcome
703-684-2900
www.sra.com
www.uavforum.com
From Science Fiction…From Science Fiction…
“The telescreen received and transmitted simultaneously… There was of course no way of knowing whether you were being watched at any given moment… It was even conceivable that (the police) watched everybody all the time… You had to live… in the assumption that every sound you made was overheard and… every movement scrutinized.”
George Orwell, 1984 (1949)
…To Today’s Reality…To Today’s Reality
The Washington Post26 Aug 2001 p.C2
Lessons in ForecastingLessons in Forecasting
Yesterday’s outlandish predictions tend to become today’s mundane reality- What would a cabbie of 1949 think of the 2001 photo?
You have to look backward to measure progress forward- Change is seldom appreciated while it is happening- Orwell was off by 17 years (1984 v. 2001) = 50%
Socio-economic factors govern technology progress- Cameras in cabs driven by cost and frequency of crime
The future always holds wild cards- Who forecast the appearance of the internet?
OverviewOverview
Requirements (Environmental)
Emerging Technologies
Potential Customers
Technologies
Customer
Requirements
Platform Environment RequirementsPlatform Environment Requirements
6 12 18 24 30 48 72 96 120
500K
400K
300K
200K
100K
Global HawkAltair
Pathfinder
BALLOONSHelios
SATELLITES
“PSEUDOLITES”
NO-MAN ZONESOUNDING ROCKETS
MANNED AIRCRAFT
DC-8
P-3
ER-2WB-57C-141
T-34
F/A-18
ENDURANCE (HRS)
AL
TIT
UD
E (
FT
)
BLAST
Condor
DHS & NASA Platform RequirementsDHS & NASA Platform Requirements
500K
400K
300K
200K
100K
CondorGlobal Hawk
AltairPathfinder
Helios
SATELLITES
“PSEUDOLITES”
NO-MAN ZONE
SOUNDING ROCKETS
MANNED AIRCRAFT
DC-8
P-3
ER-2WB-57C-141
T-34
F/A-18
ENDURANCE (HRS)
AL
TIT
UD
E (
FT
)
NASA: Satellite Cal/Val Diurnal Research Mars Testing
DHS: Border/Port Patrol Hazmat Response
BLAST
Condor
BALLOONS
6 12 18 24 30 48 72 96 120
Technologies OverviewTechnologies Overview
What is just over the horizon in:
Aerostructures
Power/Propulsion
Flight Controls
Sensors
Autonomous Capability
AerostructuresAerostructures
Autonomic (Self-Repairing) Materials– Dicyclopentadiene (DCPD) microcapsules to “heal” cracks
– Ionomer coatings to “self-clean” surfaces
– Biologically active molecular arrays to “regrow” damage
Transgenetic Biopolymers– Bio-production of spider silk from goat milk (“Biosteel”)
Transgenetic BiopolymersTransgenetic Biopolymers
Spider silk is…
– Strong: greater tensile strength than steel’s
– Flexible: Can stretch 30x its length
– Lightweight: 25% lighter than composites
Each goat produces 4-22 grams/day of silk protein
Status
– Over 150 genetically modified goats bred
– Silk protein extraction process under development
SME: Dr. J. Turner, Nexia Biotechnologies
Autonomic MaterialsAutonomic Materials
Status: NSF/USAF/Motorola funded research project
SME: Dr S. White, University of Illinois
Power/PropulsionPower/Propulsion
Fuel Cells
– Mass specific power (hp/lb) approaching that of internal combustion engines
– Sources of fuel greatly expanded• Reformates of hydrocarbons
• Byproduct (H2S) of oil and natural gas wells
• Electrolysis of water
- Increased reliability and lower maintenance cost due to lower parts count
– Very low noise level = reduced acoustic signature
– Very low vibration level
Triggered Isomer Heat Exchanger (TIHE)
– Nuclear reaction short of fission; no particulate radiation
– Candidate for combined turbine/TIHE cycle engine
Thermoelectric Generator Modules
2
St 3 -1997 St 4 -1998 St 7 -1999 Stack 2000 Current
Max. Power: 37-41 kW 40 kW 50 -120 kW 80 -120 kW 102 kW
Power density:0.26 kW/l
0.16 kW/kg
0.77 kW/l
0.31 kW/kg
1.10 kW/l
0.47 kW/kg
1.44 kW/l
0.83 kW/kg
1.75 kW/l
1.25 kW/kg
Active area: 500 cm2 500 cm2 800 cm2 800 cm2 250 cm2
Pressure: 2.7 bar 2.7 bar 2.7 bar 1.5 - 2.7 bar 1.2-1.5 bar
Temperature: 80 °C 80 °C 80 °C 80 °C 80 °C
Fuel CellsFuel Cells
GM progress in fuel cells approaching 1 hp/lb specific power
Specific Power 0.1 hp/lb 0.2 hp/lb 0.3 hp/lb 0.5 hp/lb 0.76 hp/lb
Photo Approved for Public Release by USAF ASC/RAV
Document Number: ASC 03-0896 Dated 04/22/2003
Triggered Isomer Heat ExchangerTriggered Isomer Heat Exchanger
Background
– Isomers release energy (gamma rays) when bombarded with x-rays
– TIHE energy could heat the airflow going into a turbine in place of burning JP
– No particulate radiation occurs
Advantages
– No fuel combustion pollution
– No moving parts
– Extremely long endurance enabled
Status
– UTexas triggered a Hafnium isomer sample by dental x-rays in 1998
SME: Dr C. Collins, University of Texas
Thermoelectric Generator ModulesThermoelectric Generator Modules
Advantages– Converts waste heat to electricity– No moving parts– Small size (0.5g)– High power density (0.2 w/g)
Status– Power density goal of 0.25w/g– Integration on micro air vehicles
pendingSME: Dr. W. Ng, Techsburg
Specific Power TrendsSpecific Power Trends
Flight ControlsFlight Controls
Shape Memory Alloys (SMAs) and Polymers (SMPs)– Ice-shedding leading edges
– Camber-optimizing airfoils
– Actuator-less control surfaces
Reconfigurable Flight Control Systems– Redundant hardware
– Adaptive software
– Neuroelectric control
– Thought control
Shape Memory Alloys & PolymersShape Memory Alloys & Polymers
Deforms with electricity, relaxes to remembered shape
Advantages:
- Optimizes airfoil for slow/fast flight
- Reduces takeoff and landing distances
- Extends range and endurance
- Compensates for damage
Status:
- DARPA Morphing Aircraft Structures (MAS) and NASA/ Langley programs in progress
SME: E. Havens, Cornerstone Research Group
Neuroelectric ControlNeuroelectric Control
Pilot’s neuromuscular signals become control inputs
Advantages
– Provides instantaneous, intuitive, control
– Eliminates sticks, yokes, joysticks, mice
– Learns patterns and responses over time
– Adjusts to differences in pilots
– Relearns to fly damaged aircraft in 1/6 sec
Status
– Successfully tested in airliner simulator
SME: Dr. C. Jorgensen, NASA Ames
Thought ControlThought Control
Pilot’s EEG signals become control inputs via Blue Tooth wireless
Advantages
– Provides instantaneous, intuitive, control
– Eliminates sticks, yokes, joysticks, mice
– Direct brain to computer interface
Status
– MIT’s “Mind Balance” w/Cerebus headset
– Cyberkinetics’ “Braingate” system
– Lab demo aimed at video game market
SME: E. Lalor, MIT Media Lab Europe
Communication/Data LinksCommunication/Data Links
Film and Spray-on antennas– Covert, lightweight, low power, broadband (2000 MHz) RF
antenna
– Reduces UAV weight by replacing dishes and gimbaled mountings
– Eliminates blanking sectors
– Provides one antenna for multiple functions (radio, data link, GPS, IFF)
– Open Question: damage tolerance
Multiple Quantum Well (MQW) Retromodulators– Covert, low power, low weight, high rate (300 Mbps) data link
– Avoids frequency congestion at RF
– Open Question: range limitations
Ground Terminal(courtesy Terabeam Inc.)
Multiple Quantum Well RetromodulatorsMultiple Quantum Well Retromodulators
Laser activated “shutter” for opening data link
Advantages
– Small size: 10g for 100° sector coverage
– Low power: 1W per 10 Mbps required
– Covert: <100 mrad dispersion; invisible wavelength used
– High data rate: 4 Mbps demonstrated; 300 Mbps possible
- Avoids frequency congestion of RF spectrum
– No pointing & tracking system needed on UAV
Status
– 4.2 Mbps demonstrated with a hovering UAV (Aug 01)
– Tests to expand data rate to 10 Mbps planned
SME: Dr. C. Gilbreath, Naval Research Lab
SensorsSensors
Imaging– Motion detection/reporting without imaging (passive MTI)– Active imaging to incorporate vibration, polarimetry, and
fluorescence– 3-dimensional imaging– One image, multiple target perspectives
Signals– Full-body, conformal, broadband film/spray-on RF antennas
Chemical/Biological– Diazoluminomelanin (DALM) “DNA on a chip” organic
semiconductor– Laser induced fluorescence (LIF) real time, remote agent
detection
Active Imaging
One Image, Multiple Target PerspectivesOne Image, Multiple Target Perspectives
Polarimetry
– Tank tracks
– Foliage penetration
Vibration
– Engine running/stopped
– Identification by engine modulation
– Aimpoint refinement
Fluorescence
– POL detection
Multi-Spectral
– Camouflage detection Imaging
– Coordinates for targeting
3D Imaging
– Visual identification
– Coordinates for targeting
Replacing the Pilot?Replacing the Pilot?
Defining “Autonomy”
Human-Equivalent Computing– Speed
– Memory
– Algorithms ( = Thinking Patterns, Experience)
Ethics, Law of War, ROE, union resistance, etc.
CREW SIZE TREND ON AIRLINERSCREW SIZE TREND ON AIRLINERS
Crew Size Trend on Commercial Airliners
B-314 Clipper
L040 Constellation
B-707
B-727
B-757
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1925 1945 1965 1985 2005 2025
Year of Introduction
Cre
w S
ize
- Flight Mechanics
- Radio Operators
- Flight Engineers- Navigators
- Third Pilots
AutonomyAutonomy
Action
Knowledge
Information
Data
Speed Growth Rate = 100 MIPS/decade
Computer Speed TrendComputer Speed Trend
20 years away from humans in MIPS and MB in a PC
Memory/Speed Growth Rate = 1 MB/MIP
Speed v. Memory RelationshipSpeed v. Memory Relationship
Computer Cost TrendsComputer Cost Trends
Computer Final FrontiersComputer Final Frontiers
Human EquivalencyHuman Equivalency
“Blue Brain” project by IBM and Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne (EPFL)- To simulate human brain down to molecular level- Convergence of biological data and computer capabilities
Status: To be operational in 2015
SME: C. Peck, IBM H. Markram, EPFL
PCs lag mainframes by 10-15 years, so…- Expect human equivalency in a PC by 2025-30
How Fast Is Technology Adopted?How Fast Is Technology Adopted?
Evolution of Pilot Automation, from Demonstration to Production
Years
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20201900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20201900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Autopilot
Fly-By-Wire
Autonomous
Sperry Doolittle
Mercury Concorde
Condor Global Hawk
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Film Antennas
Autonomic Materials
Transgenetic Biopolymers
Fuel Cells (MSP > 1hp/lb)
Thermoelectric Generators
Reconfigurable FCS (Software)
SMA Airfoils
MQW Retromodulators
Human-Equivalent Autonomy
Timeframes for Emerging TechnologiesTimeframes for Emerging Technologies
Fuel Cell Propulsion
Shape Memory AlloyControl Surfaces
Embedded Antenna Film Skin
Spider Silk-BasedAerostructure
SMA Deicing Leading Edges
Embedded Skin Sensors
Camber-Optimizing Airfoil
The Smart UA of 2025The Smart UA of 2025
Technology Driving Markets Technology Driving Markets
Technology Driving Market(s)
Transgenetic Polymers (“Biosteel”) Pharmaceutical Industry
(nerve agent antidote)
Fuel Cells, Film Antennas Auto Industry
Thought Control Video Game Industry
Data Links Inflight Entertainment, Banking Industries
Autonomy (Computers) PC and Video Game Industries
The aviation industry is not the driver for UA-relevant technologies
UA Customer ForecastUA Customer Forecast
… but even if the technology becomes available, unmanned aviation will need an economic reason to grow.
What will the customer base for unmanned aviation look like in 2025 or 2050?- How many?- When?- Why?
Five markets:- Airlines and Cargo Carriers (Parts 121 and 135)- General and Business Aviation (Part 91)- Military
Trend #1: IFR Traffic ForecastTrend #1: IFR Traffic Forecast
Based on FY2000 FAA Forecast for FY2025
2000
Cargo, 15
Gen Av, 12
Airlines, 55
Military, 10
Business, 8
2025
Gen Av, 11
Cargo, 27Airlines,
52
Business, 5
Military, 5
2050
Airlines, 43
Cargo, 43
Business, 3
Military, 2
Gen Av, 9
FY2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
Nu
mb
er o
f IF
R U
A F
ield
ed
Per
cen
t o
f A
ll M
ilita
ry A
ircr
aft
(16,
050)
= 11.5% Growth/Decade
80190
630
1510
3.9%
9.4%
23%
50%
1.2%
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
Trend #2: Military UA Growth Trend
Trend #3: Crew Size on AirlinersTrend #3: Crew Size on Airliners
Crew Size Trend on Commercial Airliners
B-314 Clipper
L040 Constellation
B-707
B-727
B-757
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1925 1945 1965 1985 2005 2025
Year of Introduction
Cre
w S
ize
- Flight Mechanics
- Radio Operators
- Flight Engineers
- Navigators
- Pilots by 2020?
- Third Pilots
FY2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Per
cen
t o
f A
ircr
aft
in F
leet
3.9%
9.4%
23%
50%
1.2%
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
Forecast UA Growth Trend (v.1)
Cargo
Airlines
Gen Av/Biz
33%
23%
18%
Military
11.5% Growth/Decade
FY2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Per
cen
t o
f A
ircr
aft
in F
leet
3.9%
9.4%
23%
50%
1.2%
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
Forecast UA Growth Trend (v.2)
Cargo
Airlines
Gen Av/Biz
Military33%
25%
17% Growth/Decade
Positive Influences on UA GrowthPositive Influences on UA Growth
Military - UA program trends- Pathfinding efforts (S&A, standards)
Cargo Airlines - Long term drive to reduce crew size- Long, dull, no-pax missions into
Class C airport hubs- Expressions of interest by airlines
General Aviation - NASA Personal Air Vehicle Exploration (PAVE)--2009 demo
- FAA expectation of ‘mini-jets”- Flashover point in commute distance
UA GROWTH BY IFR SEGMENTUA GROWTH BY IFR SEGMENT
2000 2025 2050 Rationale
Military 0.5% x 10%=
0.05%
23% x 5%=
1.2%
50% x 2%=
1%
2000-2015 DoD programming
Cargo 0% x 15%=
0%
10% x 27%=
2.7%
50% x 43%=
22%
Crew size trend;
Fedex interest
Airlines 0% x 55%=
0%
0% x 52%=
0%
25% x 43%=
11%
Fallout from Cargo
Gen Aviation 0% x 12%=
0%
0% x 11%=
0%
33% x 9%=
3%
NASA PAVE program matures;
Commuter interest
Business 0% x 8%=
0%
0% x 5%=
0%
33% x 3%=
1%
Fallout from NASA PAVE
Total %
Unmanned 0.05% 3.9% 38%
IFR TRAFFIC FORECAST WITH UAIFR TRAFFIC FORECAST WITH UA
Based on FAA Forecast for FY2025
Unmanned percentages of IFR traffic: 0.05% 3.9% 38%
2000
Cargo, 15
Gen Av, 12
Airlines, 55
Military, 10
Business, 8
2050
Airlines, 43
Cargo, 43
Business, 3
Military, 2
Gen Av, 9
2025
Gen Av, 11
Cargo, 27Airlines,
52
Business, 5
Military, 5
Summary: Technology TrendsSummary: Technology Trends
Away from hydraulics and combustion– Toward all-electric
Away from connected, moving parts– Toward a single morphing part
Away from data acquisition and relay (data link intensive)– Toward data information knowledge action
(processor intensive)
Away from inorganic-based technologies– Toward bio-engineered components
Away from manned aircraft debuting the latest aviation technologies– Toward unmanned aircraft assuming this role
ConclusionsConclusions
A number of highly innovative technologies applicable to UA will be emerging over the next 25 years
The aviation market will not be driving these technologies
Cargo airlines are the “great commercial hope” for UA
Christensen, Clayton. The Innovator’s Dilema. Harper Collins, 1997.
FAA Long-Range Aerospace Forecasts, FY2015, 2020 and 2025.
Infinity Point web magazine, www.infinitypoint.com
Kaku, Michio. Visions: How Science will Revolutionize the
21st Century. Anchor Books, 1997
Moravic, Hans. Robot. Cambridge Press, 1999.
OSD Unmanned Aircraft Systems Roadmap, 2005-2030.
Further ReadingFurther Reading
Nuke Newcome
703-684-2900
www.sra.com
www.uavforum.com
Nuke Newcome
703-684-2900
www.sra.com
www.uavforum.com
NASA Morphing VideoNASA Morphing Video
OVERVIEWOVERVIEW
Future of ComputingFuture of Computing
1 PHz
100 THz
10 THz
100 GHz
10 GHz
1 GHz
1 THz
Pro
cess
or
Sp
ee
d
Cal
cula
tions
/Sec
ond
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
19
18
17
16
15
14
13
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Solid State Transition Moletronics
Silicon
Indium Phosphide
0.1 micron limit to solid state devices
Human Brain
Platform RequirementsPlatform Requirements
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